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Back in SF for the first time in 2 years


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2017 Oct 11, 7:54pm   32,193 views  152 comments

by joshuatrio   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

I've been back in the Bay Area this past week, for the first time in 2 years since moving to Atlanta. Was wondering how I'd feel about the area since leaving and if I'd miss it or not (since sooooooo many people told me I'd miss the hell out of CA).

Here are my thoughts in order of my trip so far.

1) Nice weather
2) Too expensive (I paid - errr my company paid - $7.95 for a bottle of water the other day)
3) White men are pussies out here
4) The homeless population has gotten worse
5) I don't miss the druggies
6) I watched a guy shit on the sidewalk yesterday
7) This morning a dude was walking around with no pants
8) There are a ton of dike like women
9) Peet's coffee's bathroom's are only for gender neutral people, not gender specific people - so it seems
10) I prefer living in my paid off house in Atlanta, rather than a shack, that's $2-3k/month
11) The hipsters at work talk about guns like they are evil
12) I like my gun.
13) Hot weather in the south isn't that bad, especially when your neighborhood has a pool
14) I can swim outside and take my shirt off in the south, because it actually gets hot enough
15) I had a good sandwich the other day at an irish pub
16) These tech companies want employees to think they have a "hip" place to work, but in actuality, it's a bunch of developers crammed on a small table - slave labor.
17) I love telecommuting and keeping my west coast salary
18) The tv/news out here, holy shit, talk about living in a bubble. Thank God you guys have the internet
19) CA has to be the most family unfriendly state

Would I move back? Probably not. It really seems that it's regressing (despite being "progressive") into a shit hole.

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32   joshuatrio   2017 Oct 13, 9:14pm  

Just got back to Atlanta. My thoughts:

1) Holy shit the roads are in great shape
2) Holy shit it's clean

Never did I think I would call Atlanta clean, but SF sets the bar really low.

This morning I was in the gym (in SF) and goddamn, some of the dike freaks that pretend to work out are flat out disgusting. Musta been one of those gender fluid bitches.

Looking back, leaving CA was the best decision i made. I miss some of the terrain, but the trade off isn't worth it.

And now back to enjoying my big ass, mortgage free house. Think I'm gonna go cook a steak and clean my gun... Because I can.
33   NDrLoR   2017 Oct 13, 9:40pm  

Ceffer says
they would leave spontaneously and go wherever they could to obtain those things
Portland or Seattle?
34   curious2   2017 Oct 14, 12:06am  

Patrick says
Anyone know enough Russian to translate?


It looks more like Bulgarian, but doesn't make much sense:

"Give it cargoes freshness southwards tab in Alabama are such low taxes, your grandmother who did not work in America for one day and gets benefits will be met by a liberator!"

Now how much would you pay?
35   BayArea   2017 Oct 14, 5:38am  

Ceffer, well put above

I remember years ago when I was younger and more naive (early 20s), I was walking down market street when I passed a panhandling bum sitting in front of a Taco Bell on Market Street in SF.

He said to me that he was starving and needs money to buy food. I stepped into the Taco Bell and bought him a few tacos. I walk outside and hand him the bag as I walk off and wish him a good day. As I take a few steps away, I feel something hit me in my back. I turn around to find out that he threw the bag of food at me as he started to scream obscenities.

That’s when I realized that it’s not food they want lol.
36   DryMap   2018 Jan 19, 11:42am  

Patrick says
KimJongUn says
anonymous says
Davaite tovarishi uberaites na yug - tab v alabame takiye nizkiye nalogi, vasha babushka kotoraya ne odnova dnya ne rabotala v america i poluchayet posobiye budet vstrechena ka osvoboditelnitsa!


Wow, Patrick, you're moving up in this world: they've assigned a second Russian operative to your forum. This one, unfortunately, can't write in English and is unable to switch on Cyrillic keyboard on his device....So it's more like 1.5 Russian operatives. Nonetheless, still a progress.


Hmmm, Google translate cannot deal with it. Anyone know enough Russian to translate? No doubt just spam.


C'mon comrades move to the south - there in Alabama the taxes are so low, your grandma who has not worked a single day in America and receives [posobye - I'm not 100% sure what this means; my guess is social assistance/income] will be greeted like a liberator.
37   joshuatrio   2018 Jan 19, 11:48am  

DryMap says
C'mon comrades move to the south - there in Alabama the taxes are so low, your grandma who has not worked a single day in America and receives [posobye - I'm not 100% sure what this means; my guess is social assistance/income] will be greeted like a liberator.


I had a few friends leave metro Atlanta for areas in Alabama, like Huntsville and Birmingham. They have a great quality of life, can afford to travel, own their houses outright and have little to no stress. Not a bad way to live if I might say.

While you'll see a few rednecks (ok, a lot) around rural Alabama, the suburban areas aren't all that bad. It's the stereotyping that has kept those areas so cheap. One thing you won't see, are homeless taking dumps on the street, and gender neutral signs being shoved in your face.

You'll have oppressive heat in the summer time, but there are plenty of pools and water parks to compensate. When I lived in Monterey, I wore a hoodie 95% of the year because it was cold most of the time. Only a few days a year where it actually warmed over 70/80.
38   anonymous   2018 Jan 19, 1:13pm  

Everyone does what they want but I would never pay cash in Atlanta. Atlanta’s average annual appreciation rate is 2.2%. When a house is paid with cash, it’s the same as putting $200K-$400K in the bank for 2.2% interest. Outside of checking and saving accounts this is the least profitable way to use the money. That’s just the same rate of inflation.

I am from CA so I might be a bit biased, but is Atlanta really better than SF? 50% is blacks. One don’t need to be a racist to hear about crime statistics and race. Violence crime rate is 11.77/1000 vs 7.85/1000 for SF. It looks like moving from SF to Atlanta is like trading one set of problems for another. Me i’d take getting annoyed by street poopers than getting stabbed or shot or having my home invaded in the middle of the night. On that note, I would be careful with gun friendly states. Double edged sword. Most likely they are friendly because people tend to need guns there more, as stastistically confirmed in this case.
39   FortWayne   2018 Jan 19, 1:30pm  

anon_f8264 says
Everyone does what they want but I would never pay cash in Atlanta. Atlanta’s average annual appreciation rate is 2.2%. When a house is paid with cash, it’s the same as putting $200K-$400K in the bank for 2.2% interest. Outside of checking and saving accounts this is the least profitable way to use the money. That’s just the same rate of inflation.

I am from CA so I might be a bit biased, but is Atlanta really better than SF? 50% is blacks. One don’t need to be a racist to hear about crime statistics and race. Violence crime rate is 11.77/1000 vs 7.85/1000 for SF. It looks like moving from SF to Atlanta is like trading one set of problems for another. Me i’d take getting annoyed by street poopers than getting stabbed or shot or having my home invaded in the middle of the night. On that note, I would be careful with gun friendly states. Double edged sword. Most likely they are friendly because people tend to need guns there more, as stastistically confirmed in this case.


I don't know Atlanta. But in many other states you just want to move into white neighborhoods, and avoid black neighborhoods. It's not like CA, most of the country lives in a very segregated way. Would be interesting to find out about Atlanta.
40   anonymous   2018 Jan 19, 2:12pm  

Fair point on white neightborhoods but still 11.77/1000 is an alarming rate (which might be the reason why houses are cheap in the first place). For comparison purposes, Las Vegas is only 9/1000.

Another thing I would caution. Being in a white neighborhood certainly helps but consider that many financially related crimes such as stealing, robbing, car jacking, home invasion are black on white crimes. They’ll come find you.
41   NewGuy   2018 Jan 19, 2:37pm  

CA peak was 2009. The housing crash got all the assholes out. Things were affordable and you could get to work in a reasonable amount of time.

Now it’s just traffic and homeless and illegals and a bunch of liberal idiots who don’t know how to fix it. So glad I got out.
42   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Jan 19, 2:42pm  

We live in a country that has transspecific bathrooms, but no parking for pregnant mothers or people with young children.
43   HeadSet   2018 Jan 19, 3:19pm  

Everyone does what they want but I would never pay cash in Atlanta. Atlanta’s average annual appreciation rate is 2.2%. When a house is paid with cash, it’s the same as putting $200K-$400K in the bank for 2.2% interest.

The appreciation rate only matters for a rent/buy comparison. Once you decide to buy, what matters when deciding to pay cash or not is the mortgage interest rate versus what could realistically get by investing the money you would have put on the house. Also consider mortgage costs like origination fee, points, and any mortgage insurance. If you having a house built or are buying a builder spec home, the builder will usually give a discount to a cash buyer. I know someone will say "Tax Deduction" but on a $200k-$400k house that deduction is unlikely to beat the new high standard deduction, especially as the loan ages.
44   anonymous   2018 Jan 19, 4:51pm  

Does SF seem gayer than it was 2 years ago?
45   DryMap   2018 Jan 19, 5:09pm  

anon_f8264 says
veryone does what they want but I would never pay cash in Atlanta. Atlanta’s average annual appreciation rate is 2.2%. When a house is paid with cash, it’s the same as putting $200K-$400K in the bank for 2.2% interest.


You have to consider the mortgage rates (among other things) to determine how much cash to put down, i.e. compare the interest rate to other investment opportunities. The RE appreciate rate is not the relevant number here.

P.S. Just saw that HeadSet has already commented on this.
46   FortWayne   2018 Jan 19, 5:29pm  

Sad ain’t it? How liberalism ruins basic family needs in favor of sexual deviants.
Heart wrenching
TwoScoopsPlissken says
We live in a country that has transspecific bathrooms, but no parking for pregnant mothers or people with young children.
47   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2018 Jan 19, 6:14pm  

anon_f8264 says
Everyone does what they want but I would never pay cash in Atlanta. Atlanta’s average annual appreciation rate is 2.2%. When a house is paid with cash, it’s the same as putting $200K-$400K in the bank for 2.2% interest.
Unless you are going to invest that money instead and live on the streets. You also have to factor in no rent, but of course, maintenance.
48   Strategist   2018 Jan 19, 7:16pm  

joshuatrio says
You'll have oppressive heat in the summer time, but there are plenty of pools and water parks to compensate. When I lived in Monterey, I wore a hoodie 95% of the year because it was cold most of the time. Only a few days a year where it actually warmed over 70/80.


I won't move there if the homes were free. It's in the 70's and 80's out here in North San Diego County, in the middle of winter.
Actually, homes here are free. Because they appreciate at a greater rate than mortgage interest rates. What a deal.
49   WatermelonUniversity   2018 Jan 19, 10:42pm  

many people here are so bad with investing.
50   WookieMan   2018 Jan 19, 11:18pm  

BorderPatrol says
many MOST people here EVERYWHERE are so bad with investing.

Cleaned that one up a bit.
51   WookieMan   2018 Jan 19, 11:35pm  

HeadSet says
Everyone does what they want but I would never pay cash in Atlanta. Atlanta’s average annual appreciation rate is 2.2%. When a house is paid with cash, it’s the same as putting $200K-$400K in the bank for 2.2% interest.

The appreciation rate only matters for a rent/buy comparison. Once you decide to buy, what matters when deciding to pay cash or not is the mortgage interest rate versus what could realistically get by investing the money you would have put on the house. Also consider mortgage costs like origination fee, points, and any mortgage insurance. If you having a house built or are buying a builder spec home, the builder will usually give a discount to a cash buyer. I know someone will say "Tax Deduction" but on a $200k-$400k house that deduction is unlikely to beat the new high standard deduction, especially as the loan ages.

I personally feel like none of it matters. A renter, renting for less than owning will blow the savings difference in 95% of those situations. Most owners, in 95% of situations will blow their equity in some fashion or another. It's been said before, but I'll beat this dead horse again, your home isn't an investment. People need to stop talking like it is. A few will get lucky. But most see their equity increase and then cash out that equity and buy a boat or something stupid. Poof, equity gone.

I own and would tell others to. But at some point in my retirement years I want to rent homes for 2-3 years at a time after I unload all my junk and just have a couch and a bed to move essentially. That way I can live in the Virgin Islands for a couple years. Head out to Hawaii for some years. You get my drift. People have to stop saying A is better then B when both scenarios usually end in X for the average person. X = Shit FYI.
52   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2018 Jan 20, 4:15am  

WookieMan says
I personally feel like none of it matters. A renter, renting for less than owning will blow the savings difference in 95% of those situations
Yep.
53   FortWayne   2018 Jan 20, 8:19am  

I think that part of the debate of what investing is... people who made money on houses after the crash forget that that was the only time houses made that kind of money. Outside of post major economic crash, this kind of gain does not happen. Buying now, will not really be an investment, maybe family convenience perhaps, but not investment.

Now stocks were and still are the future. Companies work, they make money, their stocks gain value. If you bought good amount of Google, Amazon, apple, back in the days, you'd be all wealthy beyond imagination. Wouldn't need to deal with property management companies, renters, evictions, property taxes, repairs, etc...
54   joshuatrio   2018 Jan 21, 1:57pm  

anon_f8264 says

Everyone does what they want but I would never pay cash in Atlanta. Atlanta’s average annual appreciation rate is 2.2%. When a house is paid with cash, it’s the same as putting $200K-$400K in the bank for 2.2% interest. Outside of checking and saving accounts this is the least profitable way to use the money. That’s just the same rate of inflation.


I paid $250k cash for my house last year. If I wanted to sell, it's now worth around $300-310k. That's a little better than 2.2% dontcha think? (and if I were to sell, I'd use a flat fee realtor).

FortWayne says


I don't know Atlanta. But in many other states you just want to move into white neighborhoods, and avoid black neighborhoods. It's not like CA, most of the country lives in a very segregated way. Would be interesting to find out about Atlanta.


I'm in the northern ATL, suburbs, white area. It's nice. Every neighborhood has a pool, my kids play outside every day. My neighborhood is armed, and all of us neighbors know each other. If we leave a door unlocked, it's not a big deal. No complaints here. Honestly the best move we ever made.

Beats where I was in Monterey, CA, where landlords were always pounding on neighbors doors to collect rent, homeless people always lighting bonfires on the bike path and harassing tourists. Everyone was so freaking PC in California, and no one actually spoke their mind. Many of my friends in their 50's/60's are still broke as hell, living in a shit shack apartment, working 3 part time jobs to get by, but still think CA is God's gift because of the weather.

It's 68 degrees here in ATL today. No complaints.

I miss the landscape and the surf, but fuck it. I'm 35 and could literally retire here now. I send my kids to private school (despite living in top 10 schools) because I can. Next month, I'm taking my son to Costa Rica to surf. A couple months after I have 3 more vacations lined up. Life is good.

California is a beautiful state. No arguments there. But it's seriously gone down hill in the last 10 years to where it's almost intolerable to consider going back.
55   anonymous   2018 Jan 21, 5:02pm  

On the ATL vs Ca thing - CA can be absolute heaven on earth but ONLY for those who can truly afford it.

If you have say 3.5M in the bank and earn say 500k a year CA is truly great. On these numbers you can live a comfortable life in a comfortable coastal location and life is pretty sweet.

Problem is, most of us don't have those numbers so the choice is either CA flophouse living -which by the way causes you to notice all the other things (i.e. Drugs, street shitting)...

or you move to anywhere USA suburban ATL where you can be comfy and you aren't as bothered by the shitty weather and the neighbor who is a bible literalist and insists cave men were around "for the tail end of the dinosaurs" (which really did happen).

To that end I was lucky and inherited well so at that point the choice was easy. But before then CA sucked.
56   anonymous   2018 Jan 21, 5:06pm  

joshuatrio says
I paid $250k cash for my house last year. If I wanted to sell, it's now worth around $300-310k. That's a little better than 2.2% dontcha think?.


Highly doubt that since Atlanta appreciated only 7.9% last year.
https://www.zillow.com/atlanta-ga/home-values/
Long term, you can bet the house it is 2.2%.
57   WookieMan   2018 Jan 21, 5:52pm  

joshuatrio says
Next month, I'm taking my son to Costa Rica to surf. A couple months after I have 3 more vacations lined up. Life is good.

This. This. and more this. I'm basically the same age. My folks took me on a decent amount of vacations, which are some of my best memories I had as a kid. My family could live anywhere in this country, heck probably the world. I have no interest in being in a high COLA area ever. We can take 3 to 4 week long vacations a year and it's nothing really.

anon_fad35 says
Highly doubt that since Atlanta appreciated only 7.9% last year.
https://www.zillow.com/atlanta-ga/home-values/
Long term, you can bet the house it is 2.2%.


I don't know Atlanta at all, but get off zillow if that's where/what you're basing your info off of. You'll end up dumber using that as a source.
58   mell   2018 Jan 21, 6:03pm  

anon_7054e says
On the ATL vs Ca thing - CA can be absolute heaven on earth but ONLY for those who can truly afford it.

If you have say 3.5M in the bank and earn say 500k a year CA is truly great. On these numbers you can live a comfortable life in a comfortable coastal location and life is pretty sweet.

Problem is, most of us don't have those numbers so the choice is either CA flophouse living -which by the way causes you to notice all the other things (i.e. Drugs, street shitting)...

or you move to anywhere USA suburban ATL where you can be comfy and you aren't as bothered by the shitty weather and the neighbor who is a bible literalist and insists cave men were around "for the tail end of the dinosaurs" (which really did happen).

To that end I was lucky and inherited well so at that point the choice was easy. But before then CA sucked.


Only partly true. Yeah with a lot of money you can lock yourself in inside your mansion and backyards, but if you want city life or frequent the parks you still have to physically go into the city and the shit and the crazies do not care whether you have money or not. I'd say it could be one of the best places but it definitely loses its top position due to its dirt and piss poor government/management.
59   joshuatrio   2018 Jan 21, 6:06pm  

anon_7054e says
If you have say 3.5M in the bank and earn say 500k a year CA is truly great. On these numbers you can live a comfortable life in a comfortable coastal location and life is pretty sweet.

Problem is, most of us don't have those numbers so the choice is either CA flophouse living -which by the way causes you to notice all the other things (i.e. Drugs, street shitting)...

or you move to anywhere USA suburban ATL where you can be comfy and you aren't as bothered by the shitty weather and the neighbor who is a bible literalist and insists cave men were around "for the tail end of the dinosaurs" (which really did happen).


Lol.. OK. I could afford CA. I just didn't want to tie myself to a 1950's shit shack that needed a full remodel. Plus, the large majority of people I worked with out there were check to check. Everyone was house/rent/bill/debt poor. Everyone out there pretended like things were perfect, and they lived in utopia - yet, no one wanted to acknowledge the thousands of homeless, the gangbangers in the next town over, the influx of illegals, the druggies with needles hanging out of their arms. Sorry man, I don't see any of that down here.

The weather down here isn't bad. Summer is hot as hell, but at least it's hot enough where I can take my shirt off, get a tan, and swim outside. My neighbors are atheists, and those that go to church are incredibly polite.

anon_fad35 says

Highly doubt that since Atlanta appreciated only 7.9% last year.
https://www.zillow.com/atlanta-ga/home-values/
Long term, you can bet the house it is 2.2%.


Those numbers are off. Homes in my area sit on the market for no less than a week, and have bumped up significantly in the good neighborhoods/districts.
60   WatermelonUniversity   2018 Jan 21, 8:24pm  

why spend engineer time on developing complex algorithm to ESTIMATE last year's appreciation rate when they could just simply COMPuTE it using existing sales data? and if they computed it, wouldn't it be the same as everyone else's number? are there many different ways of calculating the median home prices that some get it right some get it wrong? i can see why estimating a home can be difficult, but why is CALCuLATING the median so complex that Zillow, the biggest internet RE site gets it wrong?

7.9% is the computed rate and it is as accurate as can be. considering the median price is $217, $250K is not that much higher. so close to median price, close to median appreciation rate of 7.9%.

and yes paying cash for the home was a very, very bad idea due to the area's low appreciation rate.
61   anonymous   2018 Jan 21, 8:48pm  

how long home stay listed can't be used to figure out the appreciation rate. an online report can.

there is zero report claiming Atlanta went up 20%+ (for it to go from $250K to $300K+) but there are a lot of 8-10%.

i'll believe the reports i read online over some wild claims.

joshuatrio says
Those numbers are off. Homes in my area sit on the market for no less than a week, and have bumped up significantly in the good neighborhoods/districts.
62   joshuatrio   2018 Jan 22, 4:53am  

BorderPatrol says

and yes paying cash for the home was a very, very bad idea due to the area's low appreciation rate.


Actually, the "bad idea" would have been to finance for 15-30 years, where I would have paid over $80-150k in interest.

Argue all you want, but it is what it is. I could sell my place within a week at the rate homes are going around here and would pocket $50k after realtor fees (after only a year of owning). Many of my neighbors are in the same boat. Certain neighborhoods/school districts/and homes (primary 4 bedrooms) go significantly faster (and for more) due to the demand.

When/if I decide to move, I'll rent it out. I have no overhead.

So, enjoy your liberal utopia while things disintegrate. Keep telling yourself that life is good because of the weather :)
63   joshuatrio   2018 Jan 22, 4:54am  

anon_5f0e8 says
there is zero report claiming Atlanta went up 20%+ (for it to go from $250K to $300K+) but there are a lot of 8-10%.

i'll believe the reports i read online over some wild claims.




Without giving you my actual address, here is output from your buddy Zillow.

For the record, I bought at the tail end of 2016. So I have owned for one year and a few months :)

willywonka says
Unless you are going to invest that money instead and live on the streets. You also have to factor in no rent, but of course, maintenance.


Previous owners put a new roof, HVAC and appliances in the house. It needs nothing major.

We re-upped the home warranty ($500/yr), so that if anything major happens to an appliance, HVAC or anything, I don't have to deal with it.
64   NewGuy   2018 Jan 22, 6:00am  

joshuatrio says
I paid $250k cash for my house last year. If I wanted to sell, it's now worth around $300-310k. That's a little better than 2.2% dontcha think? (and if I were to sell, I'd use a flat fee realtor).


I think you are missing the point. I'll use your own numbers and ignore all the fees you aren't talking about like property taxes, HOA, maintenance, insurance, realtor commission, etc.

You paid 250K cash and now the investment is worth 310, so 24% return in one year, nice work. If you had however instead only put 50K (20%) down on the house, your 50K investment would have made 60K, so that's a 120% return - 3% interest.

You could have then taken the 200K you didn't put into your house and instead have put it into the stock market, where it would have made 20% easily last year. So you are talking about how it's a good thing you paid all cash for a house, but people who know what they are doing are laughing at you because you lost 40K last year.

I do agree with all your points about CA sucking though.
65   joshuatrio   2018 Jan 22, 6:29am  

NewGuy says

You paid 250K cash and now the investment is worth 310, so 24% return in one year, nice work. If you had however instead only put 50K (20%) down on the house, your 50K investment would have made 60K, so that's a 120% return - 3% interest.

You could have then taken the 200K you didn't put into your house and instead have put it into the stock market, where it would have made 20% easily last year. So you are talking about how it's a good thing you paid all cash for a house, but people who know what they are doing are laughing at you because you lost 40K last year.


I see what you're saying. Makes sense, but practically, I don't think I could have made that happen if I'd wanted to. Plus, I hate banks, and don't want to pay a penny in interest. I also LOVE not have bills. So for me, this was a great move.

It gets old paying $25-36,000 in rent for a DUMP (where we were in CA), where as quality of life wise (especially with a family), this was a no brainer.

We can bicker about numbers all we want, but what the CA people keep wanting to ignore, are that if we had stayed renters in CA, I would have lost that $250k in roughly 8 years of renting (at $30k/yr.). Either that, or would have taken out a 500-750k mortgage for a dump.
66   anonymous   2018 Jan 22, 7:09am  

I have no idea what your house would sell for, but I'd treat that Zestimates with a large grain of salt. Better off looking at what sold in your neighborhood in the last 6 months and judging from that.
67   anonymous   2018 Jan 22, 7:10am  

It also presupposes you have the magical ability of jumping forward in time to see what the stock market looks like.
68   anonymous   2018 Jan 22, 7:18am  

joshuatrio says
I paid $250k cash for my house last year. If I wanted to sell, it's now worth around $300-310k. That's a little better than 2.2% dontcha think? (and if I were to sell, I'd use a flat fee realtor).


I think the point that you are missing is that even taking your numbers and ignoring relator fees, maintenance, HOA, property taxes, etc. You paid 250K and 1 year later your house is worth 310, so you made 24%, good job.

But if you had instead only put 20% (50K) down on a 15 year mortgage. You would have made (60K / 50K) = 120% - 3% mortgage interest. Then you could have invested your other $200K in the stock market, where you could have made another 20% last year, or 40K. Or if you're so big on Atlanta real estate, you could have bought 4 more 250K houses with 50K down each and made even more money.

So you brag like paying all cash was a good thing because Atlanta real estate is booming, but people who know what they are doing are laughing at you because you lost at least 40K.

I agree with all your points about CA sucking though.
69   anonymous   2018 Jan 22, 7:18am  

NewGuy says
You paid 250K cash and now the investment is worth 310, so 24% return in one year, nice work. If you had however instead only put 50K (20%) down on the house, your 50K investment would have made 60K, so that's a 120% return - 3% interest.


Monday morning quarterback. nobody knew in 2016 what the stock market would do in 2017. if it had followed the pattern of the two previous years, the return would have been only a few points, at best. at 3% mortgage interest, it would have been a break even, if the market crashed, like all the Dems predicted in 2016, he would have LOST money.
70   NewGuy   2018 Jan 22, 7:23am  

Well, we have different investment strategies, but our hatred of CA brings us together. So glad I got out. You forget how interesting and nice other people can be when you live there. 90% of all conversations I had with people in CA was either real estate or tech companies, that gets old fast. Plus everyone hates each other. I remember walking around the streets of SF just thinking in my head "We need a new plague", such dark thoughts, I think a lot of people over there would agree with that though.

There ought to be a way to make money off of people like you who want to buy their house cash and make no payments. Something like:

1. You take a loan out and give the money to me
2. I make the payments and invest the money
3. I pay you a few thousand bucks a year for the privilege
4. You agree not to sell the house for a term (like 7 years). After 7 years, if you sell the house I will repay the loan. If you sell before 7 years, you have to repay the loan and wait until 7 years to be re-imbursed.
5. I buy an insurance policy in case I loose money and cannot repay. Should be a pretty cheap policy, especially with a large enough pool of houses.

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a product like this out there already. Sorta like a reverse mortgage, but doesn't tap the equity of the house.
71   NewGuy   2018 Jan 22, 7:44am  

anon_603ec says
Monday morning quarterback. nobody knew in 2016 what the stock market would do in 2017. if it had followed the pattern of the two previous years, the return would have been only a few points, at best. at 3% mortgage interest, it would have been a break even, if the market crashed, like all the Dems predicted in 2016, he would have LOST money.


Which is why you don't try to time the market. Any money you have that you do not require in the next 5 years should be in a diversified portfolio. And probably the money you won't be needing in the next 1 year should be in a more conservative diversified portfolio. Long term return on US equities is ~10%. If you leave your money in long enough, you will make 10%, it's like a law of physics almost.

You can get 15 year mortgages at 3%. The worst the S&P 500 has ever done over a 15 year period is 3.7%. If you buy at the absolute worst time possible and sell at the absolute worst time possible you will still make money over ANY 15 year period. If you stretch out to 20 years, the worst you could have possibly done is 6.4%.

And these numbers aren't assuming a diversified portfolio, which would reduce volatility and make it even less likely that you are buying and selling at the absolute worst time (the odds of you buying and selling 10 different asset classes at all exactly the wrong times would be remarkable), so the numbers are even better then what is stated here:

https://www.thebalance.com/rolling-index-returns-1973-mid-2009-4061795

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