by Patrick ➕follow (55) 💰tip ignore
Comments 1 - 40 of 52 Next » Last » Search these comments
when Trump gets his second term, that will be when the next recession comes. We have to have one. We're due
Most of the money is probably flowing into the metro areas of SF, LA, NY and Miami which probably adds up to about $10 trillion. Then maybe less than a trillion could move these markets. Add up huge, concentrated wealth in China, Russia and hedge fund buyers who are nervous about the stock market and the bond bubble, and that could be creating excess demand that is causing prices to be so high
the mythical foreign buyers snapping up all the houses. Foreign buyers were 5% of purchases by count and 10% by amount last year,
So giving us a national average is exactly useless when most of the activity is local to where we live.
Dual income engineers who bought in 2000 ... The typical reason to sell, is to buy something better, but in the case of Palo Alto, if you were to sell, you would never be able to afford an upgrade. Take out the commissions and taxes and they probably couldn't afford to buy the same house
A national average shows they haven't changed in numbers, and they weren't buying in Iowa before, so we can deduce that the averages for buying in places like California haven't changed much over the years either.
Have people found an effective way to mitigate the robbery of the real estate cartel? 6% is ridiculous.
They aren’t buying in fucking Iowa! They’re buying in coastal California, and along the west coast. It’s not a myth when I’ve personally been outbid several times by Chinese with cash, and my friends have also experienced this. A Taiwanese friend said there were/are tour buses for prospective Chinese buyers to inspect areas and neighborhoods of interest.
So giving us a national average is exactly useless when most of the activity is local to where we live.
My dear friends. I'll give you 3 hints. Shortage Shortage Shortage. As long as there is a shortage of homes, prices cannot drop. They could plateau, but they cannot drop.
Stop thinking emotionally, stop cherry picking data, and use rational thought. You housing bears are screwing up your finances.
I've bought a few minor toys but the big purchases will wait until there's blood in the streets. That day is coming.
Strategist saysMy dear friends. I'll give you 3 hints. Shortage Shortage Shortage. As long as there is a shortage of homes, prices cannot drop. They could plateau, but they cannot drop.
Stop thinking emotionally, stop cherry picking data, and use rational thought. You housing bears are screwing up your finances.
Well then what were the 2008 taxpayer robbery bailouts all about? It's not like they were suddenly building more land. While I agree that long term housing should always be a relatively decent investment if you can pay your mortgage and are a decent landlord, current prices are critically inflated due to the fact that the housing market is better supported by the crony capitalist/socialist system than the stock market (and there is of course some inter-dependency), and that is not easy to accomplish. So any bear betting on total housing annihilation must also bet on the inability of ...
Between 2002-2008 homes were popping up like weeds. Thereafter. Home builders ground to a halt in 2009. 2012 and since then homebuilding has lagged.
Until you see new build in the 2m there will he shortages
Quigley saysThey aren’t buying in fucking Iowa! They’re buying in coastal California, and along the west coast. It’s not a myth when I’ve personally been outbid several times by Chinese with cash, and my friends have also experienced this. A Taiwanese friend said there were/are tour buses for prospective Chinese buyers to inspect areas and neighborhoods of interest.
So giving us a national average is exactly useless when most of the activity is local to where we live.
Sorry Bob, I have to agree with Quigley on this one. And it's only a big city coastal California - they are not buying in Sacramento.
Probably. But a lot of that shortage was artificially created, for example by dropping the discount window to zero and the resulting pass-on of 3% or less p.a. interest rates guaranteed for a whole decade to big RE giants made them not sell their underwater homes - which they may have been forced to without the Fed stepping in - but in fact double down (while rolling over their existing debt), buying up homes in droves from distressed non-commercial owners and converting them into rental property.
Big RE giants weren't sitting on underwater houses. Huge numbers of late to the game following the herd without a clue individuals (remember people lining up for days to put deposits on condo construction in places like Miami) were the underwater cohort. The big operators bought them up at fire sale prices after the crash.
But a lot of that shortage was artificially created, for example by dropping the discount window to zero and the resulting pass-on of 3% or less p.a. interest rates guaranteed for a whole decade to big RE giants made them not sell their underwater homes - which they may have been forced to without the Fed stepping in - but in fact double down (while rolling over their existing debt), buying up homes in droves from distressed non-commercial owners and converting them into rental property
When you buy a house with basically any level of downpayment, you're underwater for multiple years. The commissions, mortgage fees, and moving fees will ensure that. Even if you weren't under water, it doesn't mean you're not going to lose a large sum of money by selling immediately either.
Underwater homes aren't the problem. It's whether you can pay for them or not, and it's all about the monthly payments, not how much you paid. If I pay $1000/month @ x%interest or $1000/month @ y%interest it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if I have a 15 year mortgage or a 30 year, if I'm paying $1000, and that's what I can afford. If it's $1100, ok, things are getting tight. If it's $1500 I'm going under, probably in 1-2 years.
Everybody was underwater. Many big RE firms and banks were on the verge of BK to make way for new ones. The discount rate - basically free money for those speculators - then messed up the natural cycle and artificially inflated prices, worse socializing their losses with backstop guarantees. Until the Fed and govt stop meddling or run out of bullets there will be no true price discovery.
Nobody speculated with discount money--that's ridiculous.
Lol had a good laugh reading it. Bailouts were extremely expensive for the taxpayer while socializing losses for the wealthy. They cost billions. Why doesn't the Fed print money every day and let it rain down on the people?! Lol cost basically nothing right
mell says
Lol had a good laugh reading it. Bailouts were extremely expensive for the taxpayer while socializing losses for the wealthy. They cost billions. Why doesn't the Fed print money every day and let it rain down on the people?! Lol cost basically nothing right
OK--can you detail the expenses then?
I'm assuming inflation was running rampant, right? With all that Fed money printing? You must be able to show when the inflation kicked in as a direct result of the all the money printing, right?
OK--can you detail the expenses then?
Have you checked house prices, health insurance, tuition, rents lately? Inflation out of control for years. The EPI is what matters.
I still think the banks should have been nationalized and the assets sold off.
Between 2002-2008 homes were popping up like weeds. Thereafter. Home builders ground to a halt in 2009. 2012 and since then homebuilding has lagged.
Until you see new build in the 2m there will he shortages
mell says
Have you checked house prices, health insurance, tuition, rents lately? Inflation out of control for years. The EPI is what matters.
I don't know--Patrick just posted a thread showing rents dropping. What matters is overall inflation--not in a few cherry picked sectors that have unique circumstances.
If it was the Fed causing it, it would affect the entire economy.
3 reasons why it is not affecting the entire economy equally (it also has been affecting the stock market so you can see it beyond housing):
1) When you get (interest) free money, you will invest/speculate in goods/services with the highest leverage => housing!
2) When you get guarantees of being backstopped by the taxpayer, you will favor those goods/services => housing, education!
3) When the economy is fueled with "free" cash, local goods/services (i.e. which cannot easily be globalized/imported) will inflate => housing, education, healthcare!
This is how ZIRP/QE was carried under the name of stimulating the economy but in reality, it just helps rent seekers to fuck the W2 workers.
Comments 1 - 40 of 52 Next » Last » Search these comments
patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,194,356 comments by 13,889 users - goofus, mell, RWSGFY online now