patrick.net

Heraclitusstudent says

Satoshi_Nakamoto says

Neither is keeping the deal. It was just a speedbump on the Iran's road to owning nukes.

A speed bump maybe the best you can hope for.

We need a dead end on Iran's road to owning nukes. Speed bumps won't work.

bob2356 says

I guess we will know when trump reveals his well thought out plan of where we go next that I'm sure he has laid out in detail with our allies. I mean no one would be stupid enough to make such a big move without a plan for going forward. Would they?

Trump has a plan. Severe sanctions on Iran until they cave in. If they start up their nuke program they will be sorry as hell.
Nukes in the hands of Islamic fanatics is not acceptable. Period.

Aphroman says

Is Islam suddenly compatible with our Western Democratic way of life, that prioritizes Liberal values like Liberty and Freedom? I must have missed the memo

You did not miss the memo. They are still dangerous Islamic fanatics, which is why they must be controlled until they are ready for democracy.

OK--so playing this forward:

US implements sanctions--Joe Q Public in Iran blames the US for their misery under sanctions since it was US that pulled out of deal and US that implemented sanctions
Iran immediately restarts nuclear program daring US to act.

Those two are neon light obvious. What is Trump's endgame strategy here? Invade Iran?

LeonDurham says

What is Trump's endgame strategy here?

What was Obama's endgame?

We only saw Iran become more belligerent and expansionist into Syria and Lebanon after we signed the nuke deal.

The Iranian fuckers couldn't even stop their "Death to America" chants in 2016 when their boy Obama was still in power and recently gave the store away to Iran with the nuke deal.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-marks-revolution-death-america-chants-n516406

socal2 says

What was Obama's endgame?

Whether you agree with the rationale or not, clearly his endgame was buying time.

So, what is Trumps?

LeonDurham says

Whether you agree with the rationale or not, clearly his endgame was buying time.

Ah - kicking the can down the road while allowing Iran to become dominant in the Region along with Russia? That is some great time buying right there!

LeonDurham says

So, what is Trumps?

Probably similar to what he just achieved with North Korea using a combination of credible threats and carrots and ultimately getting them to come to the negotiation table for talks.

I'm willing to bet that North Korea (being one of the biggest weapons and nuke proliferators in the world) can provide the US with some handy information on Iran's program. In fact, they may already be doing it based on the recent airstrikes on Iranian camps and weapon's depot in Syria.

Whoa - what's this?

"Iran can restart uranium enrichment 'without any limitations': Rouhani"
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/iran-can-restart-uranium-enrichment-without-any-limitations-rouhani-20180509-p4ze4m.html

I thought all of the Obama fanboys were telling us that the great thing about the Iran deal is that it would take months and years for Iran to begin uranium enrichment again?

Are you telling me this entire deal was based primarily on trusting Iran's willingness to not do things?

LeonDurham says

US implements sanctions--Joe Q Public in Iran blames the US for their misery under sanctions since it was US that pulled out of deal and US that implemented sanctions
Iran immediately restarts nuclear program daring US to act.

Problem is Iranian TV showed the pallets of cash from the apologizing President Frantz Fanon of the Great Satan unloaded by Cargo Plane, one after the other.

Few in Iran blames the USA, they blame the Mullahs. The Mullahs can't even make payments to their rural based militias because they spent it all in Syria, Yemen, Gaza, and Lebanon. People in Iran no longer buy the Mullah's attempts at distraction, and believe they are the obstacle to structural reform.

socal2 says

Ah - kicking the can down the road while allowing Iran to become dominant in the Region along with Russia? That is some great time buying right there!

That sounds like our former North Korea policy.

Funny, the same nay-sayers over North Korea are transferring the same Nay Say Talking points to Iran now.

Obama thought he "understood" the third world because his absentee father was a Kenyan Marxist, plus Ayers and his Left Wing Professors. He didn't understand jack shit except Western Liberal Guilt.

Maybe a realist foreign policy is better than the previous policies.

Tenpoundbass says

That Soros family just can't catch a break.

The only break they should catch should be on their necks, from a rope, after being pushed off a stool.

Strategist says

Trump has a plan. Severe sanctions on Iran until they cave in. If they start up their nuke program they will be sorry as hell.

You think you can bully the world into submission? You guys are naive dreamers. Maybe if you were the galactic empire you could. Just kill and torture non compliant people.

But you haven't really what it takes.

Iran was busy building bombs under previous sanctions. This is exactly the reason why there was a deal to start with. Iran has one clear bargaining chip: they can build a bomb until Trump caves in. That's exactly what they are going to do.

I really like this president-now only thing on my bucket list-Sessions, Mueler and Rosentein.

Goran_K says

The only break they should catch should be on their necks, from a rope, after being pushed off a stool.

Yeah let's hang people we disagree with.
The leftists are nazis right?

Heraclitusstudent says

Iran was busy building bombs under previous sanctions. This is exactly the reason why there was a deal to start with. Iran has one clear bargaining chip: they can build a bomb until Trump caves in. That's exactly what they are going to do.

Assuming the regime lasts long enough - and they're damned short of cash. The Rial is getting hammered.

socal2 says

Ah - kicking the can down the road while allowing Iran to become dominant in the Region along with Russia? That is some great time buying right there!

Oh yeah, because Iran is not in fact the regional power with allies all over the place ranging from Russia, (and probably China), Iraq (thanks for Bush), Syria, Houthis in Yemen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

They're gonna leave Syria because of sanctions - in your dreams.

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

Hershey's is better, anyway.

Can't believe you said that. Hershey is one sorry excuse of a chocolate.

Has the countdown to the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran begun? Or can the theocratic regime reform and survive? Iranians from all walks of life are raising such fundamental questions with intensity these days, in the belief that an overhaul of the ruling system is inevitable in the not-too-distant future. “We have reached a dead-end,” says one businessman. “The problem is that if the Islamic Republic reforms itself, nothing would remain of it. And if it refuses to reform itself, it would die.”

In my two decades of reporting on Iran for the Financial Times, I cannot recall such high a level of anxiety and disappointment among the business community, politicians, artists and ordinary people; all are concerned that reform in any field, from economic and social issues to domestic and foreign policy, might never happen. Public perception is even gloomier than the reality: “It is not only me [who is] completely hopeless. All my customers are down and depressed,” says Sheida, a young woman who works in a beauty salon. “We are doomed in this country.”
https://www.ft.com/content/76180c9e-4880-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

Funny, the same nay-sayers over North Korea are transferring the same Nay Say Talking points to Iran now.

Careful there: nothing has been achieved in NK. For all we know, KJU is leading Trump on a wild goose chase while dividing him from SK.

Heraclitusstudent says

Careful there: nothing has been achieved in NK. For all we know, KJU is leading Trump on a wild goose chase while dividing him from SK.

Not at all. The intent to proceed with both denuclearization and a formal end to the Korean War has already been signed, the Media is simply pooh-poohing it. The South Koreans are elated and both President Moon and the Foreign Minister have lavished praise on Trump. Pompeo is on his way back to North Korea right now.

Nothing close to this has ever been achieved in 68 years. The goal is incremental disarmament, and the sanctions will disappear in stages. The opposite of Obama tactics, where the goodies are delivered up front but the enforcement dies away quickly.

socal2 says

Ah - kicking the can down the road while allowing Iran to become dominant in the Region along with Russia? That is some great time buying right there!

Yes, keeping Iran nuclear weapon free until a Western Government takes over.

socal2 says

Probably similar to what he just achieved with North Korea using a combination of credible threats and carrots and ultimately getting them to come to the negotiation table for talks.

lol--so his endgame is what Obama already accomplished then?

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

Few in Iran blames the USA, they blame the Mullahs. The Mullahs can't even make payments to their rural based militias because they spent it all in Syria, Yemen, Gaza, and Lebanon. People in Iran no longer buy the Mullah's attempts at distraction, and believe they are the obstacle to structural reform.

You mean few in Iran used to blame the USA. After Trump's moves, I imagine that opinion has changed. They respected Obama--I doubt the same is true of Trump.

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

The goal is incremental disarmament, and the sanctions will disappear in stages. The opposite of Obama tactics, where the goodies are delivered up front but the enforcement dies away quickly.

Even if they were ready to remove nuclear weapons, you are talking of delivering goodies just to go back to the original standoff that existed for the past 68 yrs proving they were right to develop these weapons.
And who knows maybe next leader will decide to start a nuclear weapons once again.
Or maybe the next president will be a new Obama. i.e they have time. Trump doesn't.

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

That sounds like our former North Korea policy.

You mean except for the part about securing a deal to keep Iran nuclear weapon free?

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

Maybe a realist foreign policy is better than the previous policies.

lol--you guys are hilarious You all panned Obama for talking with Iran and negotiating a deal. Now Trump is a God for copying that strategy with N. Korea.

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

Has the countdown to the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran begun? Or can the theocratic regime reform and survive?

We have a great record at regime change, and especially forcing those with sanctions. Cuba? Venezuela? Iraq? Russia?

LeonDurham says

lol--you guys are hilarious You all panned Obama for talking with Iran and negotiating a deal. Now Trump is a God for copying that strategy with N. Korea.

Oh? Trump is sending pallets of Cash to North Korea?

The plan is already outlined - as milestones are hit, sanctions are removed. The exact OPPOSITE of Obama, which should have been total inspection, and for every year of 100% certified no nukes, some sanctions disappeared and some frozen money was returned. Obama's deal was all front-loaded.

Trumps performance is far more impressive, he's moving towards getting a country that already has nukes to denuclearize AND stop both that and ballistic testing as a sign of good faith; Obama traded away everything for an anemic inspection regime that was just proven inadequate, and NO restrictions on ballistic missile dev, giving the money and sanction relief up front.

Heraclitusstudent says

We have a great record at regime change, and especially forcing those with sanctions. Cuba? Venezuela? Iraq? Russia?

3 of those 4 trade with the rest of the world, so US only sanctions won't work well. 1 of them was hardly sanctioned as the Europeans and Arabs undermined everything and Clinton didn't want to risk all his neoliberal treaties in enforcing them.

The difference with Iran is that in 180 days, anybody who doesn't sanction Iran won't be allowed to sell in the US.

The Trump cheerleaders are very optimistic. It feels like we are 20 minutes into the Trump/NK movie, and the Trump/Iran movie just started. You guys are all claiming victory before the opening credits fade away. I'm not rooting for failure, but I just cannot muster the confidence in Supreme leader.
All I see is more evidence of a bought off corrupt guy who is faking it 'til he makes it, so the best hope is that the world just waits him out and he doesn't fuck things up permanently.

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

The difference with Iran is that in 180 days, anybody who doesn't sanction Iran won't be allowed to sell in the US.

Why should we do business with those who help our enemies?

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says

The Trump cheerleaders are very optimistic. It feels like we are 20 minutes into the Trump/NK movie, and the Trump/Iran movie just started. You guys are all claiming victory before the opening credits fade away. I'm not rooting for failure, but I just cannot muster the confidence in Supreme leader.

Aphroman says

Is the timing merely coincidence, that as the first day of midterm primaries, the Republicans are back to their old tricks?

Heh.

Trump wasn't given the Nobel Peace Prize upon ascending to the Presidency.

socal2 says

They have a long way to go, but you have to be blind to discount these recent reforms:

- Allowing women to drive
- Allowing women to attend sporting events
- Allowing movie theaters
- Privatizing Aramco
- Negotiating with the Vatican to open up churches in Saudi Arabia
- Forging warmer ties to Israel

Yes its a very low bar, but that is par for the course for whack job theocracies like Iran and Saudi Arabia.

I'm sorry, which of these things dials back the KSA sponsored world wide army of radical islamists sworn to terrorize the western societies. I'm not seeing it some how.

KSA is just bowing to the demographic reality that most of the country is very young and not willing to live under the current repressive regime without trouble. Loosening up some pretty meaningless restrictions is a very easy way to avoid having to put out a lot of time, money, and effort to enforce them.

bob2356 says

So starving 7 million people to death in Yemen is called moderate islam.

How many times did Obama bomb Yemen?

35 times in 2016

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-president-barack-obama-bomb-map-drone-wars-strikes-20000-pakistan-middle-east-afghanistan-a7534851.html

And Libya was such a great idea, it only had to be bombed 496 times... in 2016 alone. That's 5 years after the Regime Change there.

Attaboy, Nobel Peace Prize Winner!

bob2356 says

I'm sorry, which of these things dials back the KSA sponsored world wide army of radical islamists sworn to terrorize the western societies. I'm not seeing it some how.

KSA is just bowing to the demographic reality that most of the country is very young and not willing to live under the current repressive regime without trouble. Loosening up some pretty meaningless restrictions is a very easy way to avoid having to put out a lot of time, money, and effort to enforce them.

The most immediate threat is Iran. The Saudis aren't developing nukes.

LeonDurham says

You mean few in Iran used to blame the USA. After Trump's moves, I imagine that opinion has changed. They respected Obama--I doubt the same is true of Trump.

Pfft. Iran tested ballistic missiles just weeks after signing the Iran Deal, starting in October 2015. Not only bad faith, but in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1929. Crickets from Ben Rhodes the Creative Writing expert on Foreign Policy.

In March 2016, Iran tested several ballistic missiles, one of which was written: "Wipe Israel off the face of the Earth". Not the map of the Earth, not off the map, just The Earth. However much apologists for Islamism try to soften the sentiment. The word "Map" is not mentioned.
http://www.farsnews.com/news/13941219000316/پیام-موشکی-سپاه-به-زبان-عبری-مخابره-شد-ישראל-צריכה-להימחק-מעל-تصویر



Ballistic Missiles, especially early generation ones like the Iranians are developing, just aren't that accurate enough to target military formations or even reliably damage military installations. Their only usefulness would be as carriers of WMDs.

Gee, we lost "respect" with Iran under Trump. We never had it with Obama. How ever will the USA carry on?

LeonDurham says

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

Few in Iran blames the USA, they blame the Mullahs. The Mullahs can't even make payments to their rural based militias because they spent it all in Syria, Yemen, Gaza, and Lebanon. People in Iran no longer buy the Mullah's attempts at distraction, and believe they are the obstacle to structural reform.

You mean few in Iran used to blame the USA. After Trump's moves, I imagine that opinion has changed. They respected Obama--I doubt the same is true of Trump.

We don't want their respect. We want them to permanently eliminate their nuclear program.
It's that simple.

"Oh the Europeans are so much more moral and wise."

Bullshit. A few months ago, France began offering Loans in Euros to Iran. Then this happened:


The Europeans, especially the French, love trading with rogue regimes. Remember the Oil-for-Food/Medicine baloney? Total SA and Royal Dutch Petroleum were already negotiating for oil rights weeks before the JCPOA was finalized.

Finally:

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is expected to return from North Korea with three American detainees from his second visit to Pyongyang in less than six weeks to discuss a looming summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump.

An official at the presidential Blue House said that the three US detainees were expected to be brought with Mr Pompeo, who arrived in Pyongyang on Wednesday morning to work out details for the upcoming summit. Mr Trump has said the two countries had agreed on a date and location for the summit although he did not provide details. 

https://www.ft.com/content/7f64d962-532f-11e8-b3ee-41e0209208ec

If this happens, further confirmation of North Korean good faith and fruitful negotiations.

Strategist says

We want them to permanently eliminate their nuclear program.
It's that simple.

Nothing's permanent, and we are unlikely to achieve success by starving Iranians. They will likely blame the US, and that will make it advantageous for their leaders to wage rhetorical war with the US and develop weapons. You think old bone spurs is going to put his military where his mouth is and force the issue? You think he's going to get our allies to pull their weight and pay for those services?
But it's Trump's shitshow now, and he's intent on going with his gut.

In other words, same old same old, 39 years running...

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says

They will likely blame the US, and that will make it advantageous for their leaders to wage rhetorical war with the US and develop weapons.