patrick.net

I would like to add that these sort of odds reflect betting by people who are mostly 1%ers, and this demographic has been proven to be completely out of touch with the sentiment of ordinary Americans. They wanted Jeb! They bet heavily on Jeb! They got the guy they didn't bet on: Trump, because people actually voted for him. They wanted Hillary and bet heavily on her as well. But with her they had a candidate who was unmatched by light years in name recognition and democrat party dominance. She was ordained from the beginning, running against nobodies of the first order. The fact that one of those nobodys (who had almost no name recognition a year ago) was able to nearly match her in elected delegates is indicative of her unpopularity and distastful reputation even among registered democrats.

Point is: the betting here is mostly from big money folks, and these people have done miserably in predicting this year's politics.
I think polls are a far more accurate indication of public sentiment.

Trump's votes are of a higher, more robust quality: whiter, maler, and more motivated. He doesn't cheat by attracting immigrant or female (eww) votes, which we all know don't really count.

That's why the polls don't reflect the overwhelming Trump victory we're about to witness. Once in the booth, Trump voters will black out the box next to his name more firmly, with conviction and virility, thus weighting their vote 28% more than the typical limp-wristed and effeminate Hillary vote, which positively reeks of bad perfume, decadence and denial of American exceptionalism.

marcus says

No, the odds have always accurately reflected the current consensus of peoples perception of his chances.

Just say you're fucking with me...

Quigley says

The fact that one of those nobodys (who had almost no name recognition a year ago) was able to nearly match her in elected delegates is indicative of her unpopularity and distastful reputation even among registered democrats.

Funny, I thought it was because primaries are always about the party base, and Hillary is more moderate, more conservative, and thus more electable by the political middle (which includes independents and some republicans) that always decide elections.

Don't they say candidates always pivot to the center for the general ? Bernie would have had to do that if he had won the nomination. Hillary won't have to, she's already there.

Oh What's the odds on Brexit perhaps we can use that as a barameter of how full of shit those books are.
I bet the Brexit Stay is equally as padded. Anyway Socialist Liberal Establishment can spend money to finfluence the Election they'll jump on it.

Just look how the media reports the Millions Trump can raise in an afternoon. Trump has gotten to where he is inspite of this Millions. He didn't spend any of it to influence the Primaries.
But now to the stupid Liberal vote. Those guys have been imaculately brainwashed into thinking more money better canidate.

Let's look at the Brexit vote then compare it on Tuesday.

Still no takers on the Hillary losing bet I proposed earlier I see.

Quigley says

They wanted Jeb! They bet heavily on Jeb! They got the guy they didn't bet on:

See ask this man he understands.

Quigley, you're right that what Bernie did is impressive. But I take it as more indicative of the electorate not buying the BS status quo as much anymore, trickle down, income enequality, etc., rather than how bad a candidate Hillary is. It's true though also, that her negatives are a bit high. Nothing compared to Trump's though.

Which of course begs the question, is Trump just rigging this so that Hillary can win ? Maybe even without knowing that that's his role ?

Quigley says

I think polls are a far more accurate indication of public sentiment.

IT would be true that gambling odds are going to be very much affected by polls, where as contrary to what TPB thinks, polls are not affected at all by the gambling odds (or to an extremely extremely small degree). But gambling reflects a lot of people doing an analysis of what is going to happen and a willingness to bet on that. With polls, more than half that respond aren't even going to vote, and of those that will, many will change their minds based on dabates, future speeches, ads, and so on. The polls usually don't measure the conviction behind an opinion. Those polls that do measure conviction or strength of negative opinion, are looking very bad for Trump.

Tenpoundbass says

Oh What's the odds on Brexit perhaps we can use that as a barameter of how full of shit those books are.

I bet the Brexit Stay is equally as padded.

Can we dig up some unskewed polls on the upcoming Brexit vote?

NO where are the Odds for it?

WED 12.00a
What will be the result of the UK Referendum On EU Membership be?

Stay +200 Leave - 300

That's the Odds folks.
If you Bet on 100 on Stay you win $33 bucks for your troubles.
If you bet 100 on Leave and it hits you win $200 for your troubles.

OR! For $200 bucks you only risk losing $67 bucks.
If you bet a hundred on each. If they stay and you hit because you put a hudred on both. But you still lose $67.
But if they chose leave, then you win $100.

Only losers would vote to stay.

HydroCabron says

upcoming Brexit vote

At least with Brexit, the people get to vote on it.

When our moronic congress threatens to not raise the debt ceiling on spending that has essentially already occurred, that is, when they have one of their tantrums and threaten to blow everything up if they can't have their way on some other policy, we don't get to vote. All we can do is watch the idiotic assholes make fools out of themselves.

Liberal media template lately is "Trump is not electable". I hear this same shit every 4 years, they said same thing about Bush, and about Obama even. I remember at some point taking that crap seriously, not again. Trump is very much electable, and Hillary is not likely to win.

FortWayne says

Trump is very much electable, and Hillary is not likely to win.

If you really believe that, then you're a fool not to take the 5:2 odds and bet a few hundred on Trump winning.

OR maybe in your many years of living you've had a chance to learn that the stuff you think is usually wrong, better to just say shit on a forum than to put you're money where your mouth is.

Now is no time to start being honest with yourself. Honesty ? Having integrity ? Integrity inshmegrity ! That bullshit is for those educated liberal pansies.

Real men are lying dirt bags. Am I right ?

Wow- old thread. but interesting that Kamala Harris is now the next favorite to win presidency? After trump...
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

FortWayne says

Trump is very much electable, and Hillary is not likely to win.

If you really believe that, then you're a fool not to take the 5:2 odds and bet a few hundred on Trump winning.

OR maybe in your many years of living you've had a chance to learn that the stuff you think is usually wrong, better to just say shit on a forum than to put you're money where your mouth is.

Now is no time to start being honest with yourself. Honesty ? Having integrity ? Integrity inshmegrity ! That bullshit is for those educated liberal pansies.

Real men are lying dirt bags. Am I right ?

I was going to offer to bet here, but better to go to some legal gambling site than to bet me here