patrick.net

Heraclitusstudent says

About 44% of UK exports go to EU countries, and the role of the city in finance is in part attached to its position in the EU.

The UK loses out on world trade because of EU rules and restrictions. Britain runs a trade deficit with the EU as a whole.

This is because the current EU rules favor goods over services, and because conforming to EU standards makes Britain non-competitive. The UK is a services powerhouse, but the EU is primarily interested in goods, not services, compatibility. In fact, France and Germany hate importing Services and make sure the EU makes conforming services rules a very low priority to keep their inefficient domestic services (often monopolies like Telecoms) employment high.

It has lost entire industries because of the EU, like Fishing. Britain, unlike Portugal, Holland, and Spain, doesn't subsidize Fishermen to anything like their degree. European Fishing is one of the most environmentally destructive in the world, something like half the catch is destroyed.

Under May's Plan, Macron bragged Britain would have to surrender the Dogger Bank FOREVER for the EU to loosen Britain away. Britain loses the ability to compete in the Financial Sector because of EU Banking laws written to favor Frankfurt. The EU subsidized Ford to LEAVE the UK for Lithuania.

The only way Britain can have Free and Fair trade in it's own interest is to leave the EU.

Finally, after decades of swearing an EU Army, EU Foreign Policy, and EU Superstate were Paranoid Myths, Guy von Hofstadt and Jean-Claude Druncker and Merkel have been calling for exactly that.

Superstates are not the future. Loose federations are. The Oort Cloud does not lend itself to minute-by-minute control from Geneva. given that it's light minutes (Hours?) away.

Anything the EU can do, the US can do better.

Our prices or better than theirs.

Wisconsin Cheese and Butter is far cheaper than the Irish.
American Grain is far cheaper than French Grain.
California Wine is better and cheaper than most Vintages from Italy, Spain, and France.
American Cars are cheaper than German ones, the Germans not wanting customers to have a low-cost option for electronics and cars.

I'm afraid a lot of EU regulation would still have to apply because of required access to EU market.
The EU will close itself to any industry against which they can't compete and that they can't tax if it operates outside the EU. They hate Facebook and Google in Ireland.

Fishermen of any countries would still go out an fish and still be subsidized by their country. If anything the EU is the part of Europe that resists the most overfishing.

Without a deal, finance will move in part inside Europe and out of the UK.

And in any case, without a deal, the sudden change of access will mean economic disruption one way or an other. Industries serving the UK will have to move in, and others that serve the EU will have to leave. You don't move factories easily. This has a huge cost.

Heraclitusstudent says

Fishermen of any countries would still go out an fish and still be subsidized by their country. If anything the EU is the part of Europe that resists the most overfishing.

If they do it in the Dogger Bank, the HMS Ramilles will ram them. Right now, and in the Future, the EU is demanding access to all British Waters permanently.

Heraclitusstudent says

Without a deal, finance will move in part inside Europe and out of the UK.

Unlikely. British Banks are more competitive and... the WTO has rules mandating competition :)

Heraclitusstudent says

And in any case, without a deal, the sudden change of access will mean economic disruption one way or an other. Industries serving the UK will have to move in, and others that serve the EU will have to leave. You don't move factories easily. This has a huge cost.

But neoliberals are always saying how disruption is necessary for growth and betterment! Just not when their pet projects might be disrupted, ha!

We moved all those factories to China. EU has been subsidizing companies to leave the UK for mainland Europe also. Britain, like the US, could mandate minimum assembly and end up with more jobs. It's funny, the EU loves subsidizing companies to leave the UK, but the French would never allow a single Peugot to be made in Lithuania.

The trade deficit with the EU is at an all-time high, 67B Pounds. Consider the US, a much larger country, has a $63M trade deficit with Mexico!

WOW!

The English have often dreamed of raising the anchor and sailing out away from old Europe. But their country remains stubbornly stranded there.
They are much more alike continentals than they like to admit.

Heraclitusstudent says

The English have often dreamed of raising the anchor and sailing out away from old Europe. But their country remains stubbornly stranded there.
They are much more alike continentals than they like to admit.

I disagree. Britain is very different than the continent in many ways. More Yeoman farmers, serfdom never as potent or widespread, more interest in Liberty and Democracy, less in equity and order.

A Frenchman or German is instinctively a Guild Member and loving Red Tape and Rules; a Britain is always itching for the least regulation and most flexibility.

These are the high paying jobs that have sustained the city and made it internationally relevant.
https://www.ft.com/content/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-03/jpmorgan-to-move-hundreds-of-staff-to-three-eu-offices-on-brexit
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/reuters-america-factbox-impact-on-banks-from-britains-vote-to-leave-the-eu.html

Heraclitusstudent says

These are the high paying jobs that have sustained the city.
https://www.ft.com/content/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-03/jpmorgan-to-move-hundreds-of-staff-to-three-eu-offices-on-brexit
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/reuters-america-factbox-impact-on-banks-from-britains-vote-to-leave-the-eu.html

Only in the recent past. The City has also become ludicrously expensive, and stuffed full of migrants. The overmighty Financial sector at the expense of everything else is a problem in the UK as it is in the USA. That problem cannot be dealt with while an EU Member.

BTW, Brexit also means the UK, not Brussels or Berlin, controls the UK Borders.

One thing the British consumer will realize very quickly in a Brexit is their grocery bill will take a huge dive, and they'll see an increase in quantity.

Hundreds, maybe thousands of pounds in savings for the typical Brit with Canadian Wheat and US Chicken.

California Oranges.

Affordable Korean Bicycles replacing expensive German ones.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

One thing the British consumer will realize very quickly in a Brexit is their grocery bill will take a huge dive, and they'll see an increase in quantity.

Yeah... their currency will plunge.... I doubt their grocery bills will go down as a result.

Oh, and the Biggest One of All: Amazon will no longer be able to use the Dutch-Irish Sandwich to hide it's BILLIONS in UK Sales in low tax Dublin from UK Taxation.

An Englishwoman is Berlin said she wondered why there was German Tea in Berlin, German Tea in London, but she couldn't find a single British Tea brand in Germany... and of course, they don't grow Tea in Bavaria.

Great piece: The trade deficit with the EU has been widening for decades:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/08/why-the-uk-trade-deficit-with-the-eu-is-woeful-and-widening

But the UK runs a trade surplus with the non-EU Rest of the World. Which has been growing steadily.

I doubt negotiating deals with Trump or other countries will put the UK in a position of force.
They are a small country and that is their negotiating position.

India, China, etc. are all champing at the bit to get into the UK Market. They will make concessions, like local assembly or reciprocal tariffs, to access the world's 5th Wealthiest Economy.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Oh, and the Biggest One of All: Amazon will no longer be able to use the Dutch-Irish Sandwich to hide it's BILLIONS in UK Sales in low tax Dublin from UK Taxation.

Really? because they control where Amazon operates from? Or what it does abroad?
If the EU could stamp out these tax evasions, it would be history by now.

Heraclitusstudent says

Really? because they control where Amazon operates from? Or what it does abroad?
If the EU could stamp out these tax evasions, it would be history by now.

Amazon gets away with it BECAUSE of EU rules.

A free Britain has the power to require UK sales be booked in the UK to be subject to UK Tax.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

But the UK runs a trade surplus with the non-EU Rest of the World. Which has been growing steadily.

Because the UK relies on finance and debt, whereas Germans rely on actual skills and industries.
If anything this is going to make things worse. The UK should take a page from the Germans playbook.

Heraclitusstudent says

Because the UK relies on finance and debt, whereas Germans rely on actual skills and industries.
If anything this is going to make things worse. The UK should take a page from the Germans playbook.

They should! As should America. Germans however are inferior to the UK Services industry (not just Finance, but Telecom, Consulting, Marketing) and to much R&D and innovation (Pharma, Embedded Chips).

Use non-tariff trade barriers to eliminate foreign competition. Labor laws would also be helpful. For example, requiring all new vehicles to be made in factories where nobody is paid less than $12/hr.

That being said, Germany is inferior to the US/UK in innovation generally, since the Labor-Business alliance needs be less flexible than a hodgepodge of entrepreneurial activities. One has to have ze order and ze predictive quantitification enforced by ze Regulizationheit in Organizationbund via der Centralstaat which workers will be need 4 years from now.

Here's why World Trade is better for the UK:

BWAHAHA, that was fast.

Pre 1/15/19: That's it, the best deal we offer, Brit Bongs!
Post 1/15/19 Vote: Well, maybe we can negotiate again...

JUST IN: German Foreign Minister Maas says if May's Brexit deal is rejected by parliament today there could be new talks with the EU pic.twitter.com/yAuNFzOnwM

— Reuters UK (@ReutersUK) January 15, 2019

Cameron before the People's Vote in 2016:

This is an IN or OUT Referendum
There will not be another Referendum.
There will not be a renegotiation
The renegotiation is now.
It is not up to Parliament, but the people.

WATCH | "Your decision. Not politicians. Not Parliament. Just you."

This is what we were told by the leader of our country when casting our vote. Now our Remain Parliament wants to take back control from the people because we "got it wrong". Remember MPs, you work for us! ? pic.twitter.com/mYwWPNsNdr

— Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) December 7, 2018

If May falls, watch other politicians argue that the referendum had this or that problem and needs to redone.
The establishment is waiting to push that option.

Heraclitusstudent says

If May falls, watch other politicians argue that the referendum had this or that problem and needs to redone.
The establishment is waiting to push that option.

Maybe.

The People's Vote already happened in 2016, it was engendered by a Remainer, and the terms were clear: All Out or Stay In.

There was already a General Election not long ago.

May resigns and the Conservatives put in Jacob or Boris.

Parliament now has regularly scheduled elections, no need for an early one.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-15/theresa-may-s-plan-fails-time-to-stick-a-fork-in-brexit