patrick.net

Booger says

Tenpoundbass says

Now that Bro drives his, they both can't drive on the same day. Becauce for now they only have one charging Doohickey.

Perhaps they should get another charger. They must be driving a lot. I would think that a car with that range could go a few days in between charges.

If your round-trip commute is "only" 150 miles (yikes!) then they could each charge every other day. These two people sure do seem to have a unique problem.

I don't click through links from vox. You can get better editorials from bathroom walls.

Ya'll keep betting on Tesla. Elon needs more pot money.
I called way back when, when I saw the robot automation production was being over hyped.
If something stinks then there is shit.
The Automotive industry has been so Automated for the last 30 years or more, there's hardly a human being that touches one single part in its construction.
Yet Elon felt compelled to over hype is Robotic Automated facility rather than focus on the quality and value of his product.

As I've been warning about the undo Robot and AI hype for several years now.

There is no coming AI or Robot revolution. This is the Shitlibs trying to sell the younger generations early on Socialism.
Beat their can do spirit and psyche down early before it develops. And get them used to the idea there wont be any opportunities for them in their Adult life.
Because AI and Robots will have taken the jobs all away from them. So here's some socialism to comfort you.

Now of course at the same time we all notice quite vividly that those same Robot Touters, are importing Cheap Labor from Mexico so the Duck and Warren Buffet can have greater profits, with cheap immigrant labor. Legal or otherwise. What we're not seeing, is those same people importing Japanese Robots, or even trying to scrape the Robot and AI top people from Japan, Russia, and China. We're importing Jose Sanchez. Not Boris Techmacher, and Xichuan Robosan.

Ya'll keep believing the Hype. I'm the most trusted name in News I'll never lie to Ya.

BayArea says

like the combustion engine does.

I thought it was the battery that combusted?

The advantage to the gasoline engine in the cold is that you heat the cab with waste heat instead of having to generate heat by running electrons across a resistor.
Also the longer the engine runs in the cold, the better it performs as it warms up. But there’s no such curve for an EV since very little waste heat is developed to keep the car warm.
I would think they’d be better in the heat because of not generating excess heat that must be radiated away or the engine will overheat, cook the seals, leak and then seize.

Given these facts, I think the best all-around vehicle would be a hybrid.

In another 5 years your average Electric Car will cost well over $60K with subsidies.

Stop dreaming!

People like you champion Socialism because you get the big house, the case of 30 year Scotch, the Cases of Caviar, and the luxuries from abroad while everyone else eats pets and Zoo animals. OF course the people that got on board early end up one of two ways.

Dead in a lime pit along with their whole family. As they can't be trusted they were instrumental in Overthrowing a viable government. If allowed to stay alive it would only be a matter of time before they grew disillusioned with the Revolution and would want to overthrow the fat cats living high on the hog at the top.

Or they become one of the Fat cats at the top that keeps the Thumbs Down list of people to hoist out of their house at night and put a bullet in their heads.

Which one are going for? It's a tough choice with a blurry line so chose wisely. Often the Gustapos end up in the Limepits as well, when the Dictator has had enough of their incompetence.

You better go with Trump if you want to Live.

Yeah, Tesla pretty much sucks. The SUV type one with the gull wings is really ugly.

Chevy Volt is pretty good; if my present car seemed likely to die I would consider a Volt.

Tenpoundbass says

There is no coming AI or Robot revolution. This is the Shitlibs trying to sell the younger generations early on Socialism.

The so-called AI revolution will affect white collar jobs, much more than blue collar ones during that next 20 years.

In effect, ppl like auditors and actuaries will see 80% of their work, done by computers, along with paralegals and lawyers who only do case research. In itself, a white collar work depression will cause more societal havoc than a blue collar one because ppl believe that their college degrees confer some cultural value when it doesn't.

AI is great at finding rotten grapes out of a million grapes on a conveyor belt in a split second and kicking them out. That same skill is also great at matching up facial features in an ID picture to a million people walking through an Airport terminal or busy City Street.

It can not process why Report numbers are off based on the instructions the Manager or Boss gave them.
It will not go back and look up the old price list to compare to the new price list update to realize the wrong numbers were fed in. Unless an analyst or someone instructed it to do so But that just makes one of them redundant, never fire the smart one. The one that figured it out and came up with the solution. In that case the human instructed AI to dig deeper than the data provided

AI is NOT machine learning to the degree they would have you believe. The Tesla robots still can't figure out why sometimes parts line perfectly and other times it has to beat them so bad they are damaged beyond repair. A human can slide his pinky under the part and finesse the bolt into place so the holes line up, or realize something has to be bent or tweaked in specific direction.

AI will be set up and programed to something one way and one way only.

It's good for telemetry and spacial recognition for quality control and when precision is required.
The complex stuff that takes a talented individual to do, a 1 in a million person with those skills. And the AI is better at it.
It's good for security recognizing and eliminating threats. The kind of stuff any well trained human staff can do. Better but probably not more reliable. As humans don't have sensors and lenses to clog up and don't have electronic parts that can go on the fritz and software malfunctions.

It's not good for the most basic stuff the least intelligent Human is capable of. The type of skills where each individual leaves its mark. It's not going to come up with new ideas to make its job easier. It's not going to adapt to environmental job changes. "Oh Shit it's raining, help me bring the signs inside!" "Oh crap the bathroom is overflowing, pick the humidity sensitive equipment off of the floor and call the plumber and get someone to shut off the water main.
The type of sophistication in that kind of cognitive AI would be out of most businesses reach. Those that can use AI automation to cut down on repetitive procedures will do so. But we wont ever see in our lifetime or in three lifetimes where Rosie the Robot takes over everyone's Job. Even George Jetson had a job to go to. Rosie was the Maid.
Spacely Sprockets depended on good old fashioned human brains.

I think Stone Age Man could eventually defeat any AI land roaming robot currently in production or development.
As long as the Man had the numbers advantage.

ThreeBays says

I wouldn't bet against AI progress with the kind of self taught general intelligence coming out of DeepMind.

You don't need general AI, to eliminate a vast majority of white collar jobs. Most ppl are stupid and do stupid stuff, all day long.

Walk into a place like Bank of America, Fidelity, or Metlife and ask yourself why is there so much headcount at those places? Many ppl are dealing with stupid fact checks, verification, and producing countless spreadsheets more or less, saying the same thing.

When I grew my firm, we automated so much, that we used all of our savings to hire the very best prop trader out there, which made the firm millions. By keeping headcount in check, we had the most productive workforce and as a result, grew w/o wastage and general corporate stupidity. Now, in the future, as more and more AI tools come online, watch those companies: BofA, Fidelity, and Metlife and see how far their payrolls drop over time.

Tenpoundbass says

"Oh Shit it's raining, help me bring the signs inside!" "Oh crap the bathroom is overflowing, pick the humidity sensitive equipment off of the floor and call the plumber and get someone to shut off the water main.

General security, which is what you're describing is already automated (with access cards/electronic doors, location sensors, cameras, etc) and has managed to lower costs so much, that an average security guard earns only $15/hour. And in the future, the great addition will be cameras which can pre-identify threats, even before they occur but in general, that won't affect the careers of security guards. I can't say the same for some joker working at Fidelity.

Tenpoundbass says

Unless an analyst or someone instructed it to do so But that just makes one of them redundant, never fire the smart one.

Yes, one worker where there used to be a team of ten.

Tenpoundbass says

Yet the automaker has also been struggling with the quality of its vehicles.

I own an Accord and have never had a problem. In fact, I don't even recall a major repair of any sort, just regularly scheduled maintenance for tires, fluids, belts, and brakes.

clambo says

Chevy Volt is pretty good; if my present car seemed likely to die I would consider a Volt.

You should also consider a Bolt. I got one in December and it is absolutely the most fun and fastest car I've ever owned. Awesome torque and acceleration (just 1 second slower than the Tesla 3 base model) and the 240 mile battery range which is plenty for my daily 50 mile work commute and monthly trips up to LA and back from San Diego. I just plug it in in my garage every 2nd or 3rd night to keep it topped off. Granted I live in a perfect climate for EV's and don't need to use the heat.

Despite what the Tesla haters think, I believe EV's are the future. EV cars are actually cheaper to build and maintain and have way better performance. They just need to keep improving the battery technology and prices.

socal2 says

Despite what the Tesla haters think, I believe EV's are the future. EV cars are actually cheaper to build and maintain and have way better performance. They just need to keep improving the battery technology and prices.

And that's a part of the point; it's the future. As of right now, the ICU called the Toyota Corolla costs ~$18K and pretty much, $10K-$14K in the 2-3 yr year used markets. That's affordable for 90+% of the general population to transport them from home to work w/o any additional infrastructure to our current society. These are low maintenance, highly effective vehicles for the everyman in society.

Think about that and compare it to the horses of the early 1900s. Horses got sick, crapped all over the place, and were a public health nuisance esp in crowded cities like NYC, Philly, Chicago, and Boston. It was inevitable that they would be replaced by something mechanical and within a few short years. That's the nature of pent up demand.

Today, the whole EV thing is a type of fad surfing where ppl want to appear to be cool and happening and thus, buy an EV or a hybrid. In reality, however, depending upon income, that Corolla (all incomes) or Maxima (upper middle incomes) get the job done. As for battery tech and dealing with the cold weather, well, like I said ... the future. Let future designers work that out, build a model which rivals the Corolla in terms of price/performance/reliability and then, you'll see a brand new world of EVs.

Rin says

Today, the whole EV thing is a type of fad surfing where ppl want to appear to be cool and happening and thus, buy an EV or a hybrid.

I got a Chevy Bolt because of the performance and cost savings not because I am a tree hugger. I'm saving over $150 a month compared to comparable sedans I was in the market for like Accords, Passats, Sonatas, Mazda 6's when you factor in gas and maintenance because I have a fairly large commute and the cost of gas in California is pretty expensive.

I think the next 3-5 years will be interesting. There are alot of new EV's coming out from Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, GM and battery prices keep coming down.

Everything comes down to the battery tech. Solar and other renewables will make alot more sense once we have ways of storing energy produced during the day with low cost (and safe) batteries.

socal2 says

I got a Chevy Bolt because of the performance and cost savings not because I am a tree hugger

It's not the tree hugging thing; it's a Silicon Valley excitement thing much like the first iPods. SV products are the 'California Dreaming' of today's times. Musk is its greatest cheerleader.

That Bolt is in effect a Maxima, which is an upper middle class income car. So yes, EVs are making an entry into that space but again, it's not general enough for the country as a whole. The average non-indebted Maxima owner can easily afford a tank of gas and not be in the queue for recharging stations.

Also realize, California is not the country; both the northeast and the midwest have severe winters where in effect, having gasoline in the tank, like in my Corolla example, gets one some ~350 miles per fill-up regardless of the outside temperature. And Corollas are half the price of the Maxima which gives one some 4K+ gallons of gas which is some 100K+ miles. I suspect that most ppl would like to swap cars at that point in time which makes the Corolla one of the best cars for the working person. I used to know Corolla and Civic drivers, whose cars lasted till 250K miles with original engine & transmission.

To compare any Tesla to a Corolla is silly in just about any metric.
Compare a TM3 to a BMW 3 series, and higher for Model X, S.
I dont defend Teslas, I did not buy one. They are luxury cars.
Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro EVs are extremely attractive offering with 250ish mile range at affordable price.
True that from an economical pov, Teslas dont pencil out no matter how hard one tries.
But you get, quiet rocket-ship g's, sexy looks and unsurpassed energy efficiency.
Luxury cars buyers:
1) They are well-off. The list price delta is insignificant to them. Like <1% of their net worth, who cares.
2) They feelTesla cool is so compelling they are willing to pay extra for it. Fine with me.
3) They are going to buy luxury ICE anyway, so Tesla is competitive. Look a BMW headlight replacement cost $1000. I am not joking.
4) They have business write-off that makes it worthwhile.
5) They drive a shit ton of miles a year and electricity cost is free or extremely low for them.

I am not going to write a small book on why it is advantageous for me to drive a PHEV, using an average of 90-95% electric vs gas duty cycle.
Here is a graphical composite of why it works economically for me. Why solar PV and EVs are a match made in heaven.

You're lucky with your parking situation: where I work one must move their EV off the charger after 2 hours. Dropping everything and running out to move the car gets pretty old pretty quick.

Teslas are the only somewhat fun vehicles among all the EVs (except maybe i8). The rest are rather meh on that department.

ThreeBays says

Jobs that are mundane will be replaced

It really depends on how complex the solution to make that job redundant would be.
If a business owner is only making a set amount of money that he can afford the cheap labor doing the mundane task.
If a robot hardware and software cost more than the ROI would ever be during the lifetime of that solution. Then it would never be replaced.

Just try to imagine all of this automated shit going on in city, town or neighborhood. Where nobody is even working. So people will be in the way. Since they wont even own cars, they will be walking and think they own all of the roads. The Automated cars, and transportation and auto delivery robots will be a huge liability. Accident incidents will be quite common.

If nobody is working, where will B2B robots deliver to, and who or what will come receive it. Are Robots going to go to supply houses to pick up their materials. Or will the materials be delivered to job sites? Will all of these Robots crashing into each other and creating bottle necks as they wait for the previous robot to get serviced by the Robot Clerk so they can get their bill of materials and leave. Will they be like...

"Hey Man... er Robot! Hurry UP! Time is Money, you're costing me Money!"
"What do you mean did we send over the PO, don't be silly the Toaster told me this morning he sent PO in!"
"What? It wont be here until next Week? Now what am I supposed to DO? I came all the way from Vero Beach to do this job. My schedule is booked all next week."
"I need Call my Boss!"

And what in the hell will they be making More Robots? They wont be making consumer goods, that's for sure!

Let's keep this guy working, it is good for him, while flushing millions in hours of commuters' collective time.
(Actually I have nothing against this fellow, probably a good man.)

At least with Level 4 Autonomous they can do FB, work, relax or have sex while waiting.

"Toll-Booth Attendant : Toll-booth attendants are reported to earn an average annual salary of $45,000 per year. This salary exceeds the national average, which is notable considering that this job is relatively low-skilled and requires no post-secondary education. It is also reported that the highest paid toll-booth operator salary in Maine in 2009 was $76,219, which is an impressive 85% more than the national average annual salary."

What would you have him do? Practice his hold up and armed robbery skills?

kt1652 says

Let's keep this guy working, it is good for him, while flushing millions in hours of commuters' collective time.
(Actually I have nothing against this fellow, probably a good man.)

At least with Level 4 Autonomous

What does tollboth attendant's job have to do with any level "autonomous"? His job is under threat from simple RFID tech (a.k.a FasTrak).

Hugolas_Madurez says

kt1652 says

Let's keep this guy working, it is good for him, while flushing millions in hours of commuters' collective time.
(Actually I have nothing against this fellow, probably a good man.)

At least with Level 4 Autonomous

What does tollboth attendant's job have to do with any level "autonomous"? His job is under threat from simple RFID tech (a.k.a FasTrak).

We are talking about joe-six-pack's job being eliminated by AI.
Autonomous level =>4 will enable people to be more productive with their commuting time which for many is wasted and is physically tiring.
Autonomous driving tech is a form of AI. The key to understanding it is, there are different level of AD and for different regions. (Warm/Cold, Urban/country, Interstate/City...)
AD on decent weather days, on 3D mapped, machine learned geo-fenced routes are completely doable, even today.
For many commuters that is exactly the case. They drive the same route, get on the interstate, arrive at a big city, drive to the work place parking and reverse to go home.

Toll takers are perfect example of jobs that should have been eliminated.
The technology was available 15 years ago.
When I visited Singapore in 25 years ago, all tolls were billed electronically, no one even slow down at bridges.
The only reason we still have toll attendants is unions and maybe resistance to implement tech solutions.
Sorry interstate truck drivers, fast food workers, your days are numbered.

It makes no sense to pay someone to do a job that can be done cheaper and with higher quality than a human with attitude.

kt1652 says

Toll takers are perfect example of jobs that should have been eliminated.
The technology was available 15 years ago.
When I visited Singapore in 25 years ago, all tolls were billed electronically, no one even slow down at bridges.
The only reason we still have toll attendants is unions and maybe resistance to implement tech solutions.
Sorry interstate truck drivers, fast food workers, your days are numbered.

See? The tech was available and reliable 15 years ago (I would argue it's more like 25, but whatever). And still there are guys doing the job which is supposedly "unnecessary". The tech for autonomous driving is not even in production yet, let alone dead-nuts reliable. It's anybody guess when (and if) it will be rolled out on a massive scale. Which means that many of the people you feel sorry for are most probably safe in their jobs for the rest of their working years.

It's been the same old shit since I was 10. They said Computers and Robots were going to take our jobs.

That's not what happened. But it did allow the American worker to become complacent as the people that sold us that lie found Cheap labor on the other side of the world to replace us, then when that became problematic. They found cheap labor below the border to bus in to replace the Amercan worker outright in his own home.

Jose is living in houses Frank Smith was foreclosed on in 2007.

Foreclosed with Robot Signatures if you all remember correctly.

Quit being stupid and ridiculous, anyone believing all of this tech hype believes somewhere in the wilderness Sasquach rides a Unicorn.

I bet $ on L4 rollout within 5 years.
With regions lagging, of course.
AD EVs will enable this:
10X reduction in cost of transportation. Cars are used only 5% of times on ave. If Uber type AD service can up that to 80%, service EV run 100k mi annually, service life .5 to 1 million miles. Most people would find it makes sense to own fewer cars or no car.
New generation are not so fixated on car ownership.
ATM did a number on tellers.
CAD did ait to drawing drafters.
Soon AI farm machineries will do to agriculture.
Gov, unions don't count, they don't need to compete.
Gotta work, talk later.

Tenpoundbass says

It's been the same old shit since I was 10. They said Computers and Robots were going to take our jobs.

That's not what happened. But it did allow the American worker to become complacent as the people that sold us that lie found Cheap labor on the other side of the world to replace us, then when that became problematic. They found cheap labor below the border to bus in to replace the Amercan worker outright in his own home.

Jose is living in houses Frank Smith was foreclosed on in 2007.

Foreclosed with Robot Signatures if you all remember correctly.

Quit being stupid and ridiculous, anyone believing all of this tech hype believes somewhere in the wilderness Sasquach rides a Unicorn.

Industrial age, digital, computers, soon evolving stages of AI will again enable a step function in productivity. If you deny our society has gotten magnitude more productive, you have blinders on. What us true is technology has always created more opportunities and new higher skill and pay jobs for those that qualify.
Will this continue to be the case in a quantum leap in machine capabilities, machines that never stop learning and improving ? Idk.

kt1652 says

To compare any Tesla to a Corolla is silly in just about any metric.

The comparison was to the upper middle class Maxima. The Corolla was the everyman's working car, regardless of socioeconomic bracket. And as I said, Maxima owners, who're not fully indebted, can afford gas.

kt1652 says

Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro EVs are extremely attractive offering with 250ish mile range at affordable price.

In the northeast and the midwest, where the cold weather decimates the batteries, a cheap ICU, like the Corolla, will always offer 350 miles per fill-up, regardless of the temperature outside. And then take that savings delta, between that an any EV today, and you get 100K miles of gas paid for, which is about the time when most ppl trade in their vehicles for something new.

For the last year I never need it more than 150 Mi range except for 4 weekend trips. In the future I can rent a uber like car for long trips or charge quickly let's say if I drive 300 miles I'm going to need a rest of half an hour to an hour charge the car while I rest go to the bathroom, eat lunch.
It is irrelevant when solar PV electricity cost is nearest zero. Even Sweden no way have plenty of sunlight. Parking near me since I'm dictating this while driving

For the last year I never need it more than 150 Mi range except for 4 weekend trips. In the future I can rent a uber like car for long trips or charge quickly let's say if I drive 300 miles I'm going to need a rest of half an hour to an hour charge the car while I rest go to the bathroom, eat lunch.
It is irrelevant when solar PV electricity cost is nearest zero. Even Sweden norway have plenty of sunlight. Pardpn since I'm dictating this while driving

kt1652 says

Industrial age, digital, computers, soon evolving stages of AI will again enable a step function in productivity. If you deny our society has gotten magnitude more productive, you have blinders on

There are industries that automated and when that machinery for the automation became obsolete or needed replaced or repaired. Many of that automation returned back to human labor. Because they realized they were swept up in the hype of automation.

The support and tech staff required to keep automation can be ten times the cost of human labor. Also there is too much expected out of simple automation.

I even see it here at my job. Where I take PO's and Sales Orders and covert them to Dye Sublimation print jobs. They are now capable of batching many orders together and printing it. But when it comes to time to close 100 orders at once, with the South African built clunky ERP system they use. It's shits out them from time to time.
It's not because of one simple reason. It's because of many reasons. They set up new Substrate, but didn't set up every field required in the ERP to allow dispatch of inventory. The Customer has gone over the credit limit, someone forgot to allocate stock from one warehouse to the default warehouse to use for the Order and Customer type.
This is all stuff that requires a human to go through at the end of the day and catch any Sales orders that didn't close out automatically.
There's nothing I can do, there's magic wand this ERP simply will not dispatch inventory when it doesn't see all of the data it needs. Some has to do QA and make sure all of the T's are crossed and I's are dotted. They think they can come back to me like my process failed. But it's bad data entry. Another process is this South African Piece of Crap ERP gets overloaded with processes. So the folks in the back at the end of the day will throw 120 orders at it to close out at the end of the day. They all end up in Suspense.

They could get a New ERP which they are in the process of doing. But even that ERP will have locks and checks and balances that will prohibit records from being inserted and ledger codes being hit when it sees a problem. That's just the nature of a Sarbanes-Oxley Compliant ERP software that is required by law to have.

Of course I wrote a process that catches all of the errors before they happen and email or inform those interested parties. The problem is, nobody wants to own that process. I told a person in a meeting this week about it. I can spend all day being the Order QA and logistics specialist or I can Program I can't do both.

Can AI create the Substrate collection, act as the buyer of wholesale goods, and the supplier for the businesses we service and create all of the patterns and color ways, print the jobs and calibrate the colors, ship the product and mark the records shipped without a human?

Probably but then nobody would be willing to pay $500 a yard for the material that it would take to cover that much AI sophistication.

You automate as much as you can, it just makes the employees you have to keep lazy and counter productive to your automation. You're better off making everyone do it by hand and give them impossible deadlines.

So where are in agreement that computers and the internet made us much more efficient and productive right? Well then the companies that refuse to keepup or unable to keep up will have lunches eaten by new startups look at Sears everytime I'm in the store there's more salesman than customers

"The OpenAI Dota 2 bots just defeated a team of former pros. And it wasn’t even close. By Vlad Savov on August 6, 2018", (Google Vice)
To be good at video games require exceptional hand-eye coordination, quick reflexes, big picture awareness, concentration. The same qualities to be a good driver. If the machine can beat professional gamers, it won't be long until it can beat average impaired drivers. They don't need to be the best, just better, which means safer.

kt1652 says

Well then the companies that refuse to keepup or unable to keep up will have lunches eaten by new startups look at Sears everytime I'm in the store there's more salesman than customers

You should Ebay Servers and see the stacks of Servers about half the size of sky scrappers that came from failed start ups.

No argument here. SV is built on bodies of failed startups. I was on a team that took over the failed op of one network co. One of the last enginger there said he worked on 5 srartu p s in 10 years, all failed, options worthless. He looked like a beaten man. 9 in 10 goes bkrpt. But when they win, the world is changed.
The real reason mergers rarely work, all the failed personnel are still running the show. They may all talk the talk, but don't know how to walk.
Deadwood is organization's cancer.

kt1652 says

For the last year I never need it more than 150 Mi range except for 4 weekend trips

I think 98% of the driving population don't drive more than 50 miles a day. So even during the polar vortex, the battery range of the newer EV's is plenty. The key is the ability to charge at home. I would never get an EV if I had to rely solely on public charging infrastructure unless my office had it.

I've got my wife's minivan for the rare longer trip and to haul my longboard to the beach.