patrick.net

I think shorting is very risky. There is very little margin for error and the clock is working against you.

Very true. The most difficult part to manage is one's own emotion. Any rally can "force" a trader into taking a loss at the worst possible time.

Mr.Zyphyr, sir, your sarcasm falls on the deaf ears of those that have staked their futures on the implicit accuracy of the Elliot Wave, Tipping Points, and anonymous Blog Talk.

I am deaf, so I cannot hear you. :)

California schools can only get worse. It may or may not have anything to do with Prop 13, but the change in demographics itself would be damaging enough to public schools.

I don't think we should chase "good school districts" anymore. In 10-15 years, private schools may become the only real choice.

California schools can only get worse. It may or may not have anything to do with Prop 13, but the change in demographics itself would be damaging enough to public schools.

Yes...this can happen....not to mention all the kids who become snobs in the richer areas of town. ;)

Peter P Says:
“California schools can only get worse.”

Peter,
You probably want to reserve judgement till you have kids. Some of the schools are very good. Plus, it is parental involvement that really counts.

There are some academically sound schools in some areas - Menlo Park, San Carlos, Cupertino. But I don't trust even these schools to be morally sound. I know a teacher at a very highly-regarded Palo Alto school whose colleague refused to follow Bush's request to have everyone pledge the flag after 9-11. I'm not saying it's immoral to disagree with Bush, but when we have *teachers* acting openly unpatriotic in front of kids, something has gone wrong.

I agree, parental involvement makes all the difference. But in a place where everyone needs (or wants) 2 incomes to make mortgage payments, how many have time for school? It's a vicious cycle. Crappy schools turn out crappy kids, crappy kids contribute less to society and the economy, taxes/defecits/crime go up, people have to work harder, people have less time for kids, schools get wose, repeat.

hello every one
can we start a new discussion regarding how to overcome inflation/deflation / stagflation scenarios?

apart from the housing bubble is gold markets in a bubble too? if gold prices rise too much from here gold demand falls particularly in india ( only theoretical i do not have any material evidence for the same.). also there are alot of banks in india that are selling gold coins. does that mean anything?

Next relative to the price of gold, diamonds have not appreciated that much does it mean diamonds are a better buy now, to beat inflation and the housing bubble. If so what kinds of diamonds does one buy. i mean small or large, what grade, cut ,clarity, etc? which store or brand has better value in the long run?

how about other precious stones/ platinum.
thanks

hesses fan

Diamond can already be easily manufactured, bearing exactly the same qualities as the real one, only that they are flawless, and there is absolutely no way you can tell if they are manufactured in the lab or by mother nature. Gold cannot be manufactured. In case you don't already know, almost all precious stones can be manufactured.

Diamond will be a terrible store of value going foward.

Plus, it is parental involvement that really counts.

Absolutely.

You probably want to reserve judgement till you have kids. Some of the schools are very good.

Okay. I am reserving my judgement for later. :)

But how are schools going to get funding though? They are outside the machinary of free market.

Investors will be able to trade contracts electronically based on median home prices in Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., or a composite index of the cities, the AP said.

Perhaps it will inspire some home equity insurance products?

Keep in mind that "hedging products" will also take fear out of potential homebuyers.

I think such products will be good for the markets.

Diamond can already be easily manufactured, bearing exactly the same qualities as the real one, only that they are flawless, and there is absolutely no way you can tell if they are manufactured in the lab or by mother nature. Gold cannot be manufactured. In case you don’t already know, almost all precious stones can be manufactured.

I thought gold can be manufactured using a colossal particle accelerator... ;)

warning: off-topic divergent ranting blather to follow:

@matt_walsh: I know a teacher at a very highly-regarded Palo Alto school whose colleague refused to follow Bush’s request to have everyone pledge the flag after 9-11. I’m not saying it’s immoral to disagree with Bush, but when we have *teachers* acting openly unpatriotic in front of kids, something has gone wrong.

Complete abdication of logic. Refusing to follow the President is not unpatriotic. Teachers are not expected to be more patriotic than the average person. Pledging the flag is not patriotic. It is not immoral to be unpatriotic. It is not moral to follow. It is not immoral to not follow. Your statement implies your opinions, but it is not immoral for someone to disagree with you.

@Owneroccupier: Diamond can already be easily manufactured, bearing exactly the same qualities as the real one, only that they are flawless, and there is absolutely no way you can tell if they are manufactured in the lab or by mother nature.

But manufactured diamonds cost a bit more than natural diamonds. So far. And that's despite the DeBeers Corp's artificial product scarcity and exceedingly sleazy marketing practices... But, at least when you buy a manufactured diamond, you know your money isn't going to buy Kalashnikovs for the illiterate slavelords who kidnap six year olds and force them to crawl into holes in the ground to bring back pretty things for their massahs.

If your sweetiepie insists that your love is only real if it takes the form of a geological curiosity, get her one that doesn't kill children. Or get a new sweetiepie.

dear owner occupier
thanks for the info. but now i have more questions. yes they can manufacture it in the lab. but the cost of producing diamonds particularly larger than.25-0.45 carats is prohibitively expensive. in fact natural diamonds obtained from known deposits are cheaper. Source (simon and shusters guide to gems and precious stones 1986 edition page no 88.)

well id like to know may be emeralds as an alternative to gold hedging?

Complete abdication of logic. Refusing to follow the President is not unpatriotic. Teachers are not expected to be more patriotic than the average person. Pledging the flag is not patriotic. It is not immoral to be unpatriotic. It is not moral to follow. It is not immoral to not follow. Your statement implies your opinions, but it is not immoral for someone to disagree with you.

Pledging the flag is not necessarily patriotic. However, using one's position as a teacher to openly refuse a request by the president is not exacly nice.

As a good store of value, the object itself has to be as uniform as possible. All precious stone suffers from the lack of uniformity, because the value of a stone cannot be pinched down with precision, as we all know, precious stone values go up exponentially with the size but there is NO one applicable formula that everybody accepts. The existence of flaws, color variations also make it difficult to exchange value between one another. You have to be a lwell-trained expert to not get fooled in the business of precious stones, and none of us, all people who care about the store of value, can afford the time and energy to study so much.

Therefore, precious metals has always been a much better store of value due to its unformity- ease of understanding. One piece of 999 gold is exactly the same as another piece of 999 gold, one oz silver is exactly the same value as the other.

As a good store of value, the object itself has to be as uniform as possible.

I agree. :)

I hate diamonds! I love gold.

I hate diamonds! I love gold.

Besides once your wife gets her hands on the diamonds, you'll never get them back. :lol:

Besides once your wife gets her hands on the diamonds, you’ll never get them back.

My wife loves gold. She does not like diamonds. She much rather have devalued dollars than diamonds.

Peter P Says:
“California schools can only get worse.”

H.Z. Says:
You probably want to reserve judgement till you have kids. Some of the schools are very good. Plus, it is parental involvement that really counts.

I'd rather say: Some of the schools are better than other schools. Or at least have better test scores, which are just an indicator for how highly valued education in the particular neighbourhood is, not how good the school is, and definitely not how well your child will end up getting educated.

The worst problem IMHO are the ever-decreasing academic standards, especially in middle and high school, and yes, that happens even in the "good" school districts.
Being years behind other countries' school systems (needlessly!) in every single area, while not offering some commonly taught subjects at all or only to a very basic level is a pretty shameful picture for the technologically most advanced nation in the world.

But hey, there's no problem because our children won't need to compete globally.
Oh wait.

Is raising academic standards on anyone's political agenda in California?

I fear that if the issue gets more publicity, the bonus people pay these days for houses in school districts with good test scores might evaporate, and one has to add the cost of private school to the already substantial cost of living here.

Private schools are also over-rated. I’ve worked at both public and private schools, and have found that many parents who put their kids in private school do so because public school has a very low tolerance for misbehavior. But if you pay a private school enough money, they won’t bother telling you about the child’s problems. They also often do not offer counseling for children who need it, that has to be provided and paid for seperately by the parents. Private schools often talk a good ball game but seldom really deliver.

You're right. There are quite a few con artists in the private school business. I have some firsthand experience in that respect, too. If it wouldn't be off topic by miles in here, I'd share some of the horror stories. Choosing the right school is tough.

However, I have to say that IMHO public school's tolerance for misbehaviour is not really all that low. My daughter regularly brings home stories of low student discipline in her high school - the last shining example is a nerdy classmate who's constantly poked, prodded and otherwise bullied during class in a rather public fashion, and the teacher won't or can't stop it.
Another one is about a jock who publicly and loudly derides his somewhat shy female lab partner, I guess to increase his own popularity (he's homecoming king). No teacher intervention whatsoever.

The one thing that I personally saw that really made the difference was parental involvement. If the parents cannot make their children the priority, then they obviously shouldn’t have kids.

I could not agree more.

Here's an interesting view on why this time, it's different, and the increase in U.S. asset prices is here to stay:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/thoughts_va_print.aspx?EditionID=224

Peter,
Let the RE boom continue if you are worried about school funding

If it is sustainable I do not mind.

Gold is not productive. It is of marginal utility. It can be easily manipulated by the Governments, if the need arises.

It is better than diamond, which is of marginal utility and can be easily manipulated by the cartel.

I’ve worked at both public and private schools, and have found that many parents who put their kids in private school do so because public school has a very low tolerance for misbehavior

That would be a bad reason to go to pricate schools.

I was thing that private schools may allow caning so kids may behave better. ;)

"If high housing prices in a metropolitan area mean that people at even good-paying jobs will never be able to save enough to pay for their children’s college or their own retirement, then it is unlikely that many people will opt to live there." - Dean Baker

My wife loves gold. She does not like diamonds.

Whatever happened to "Diamonds are a girls best friend".....didn't know it was replaced with gold.

Whatever happened to "A mans best friend is his dog"........ just realized the dog was replaced by a computer.

allah sez:
“If high housing prices in a metropolitan area mean that people at even good-paying jobs will never be able to save enough to pay for their children’s college or their own retirement, then it is unlikely that many people will opt to live there.” - Dean Baker

That's right. However, I'd argue if you throw stock options or the unshakable belief that housing prices will always go up into the mix, at least some people might hang in anyway because they think they will hit it big someday.
It's probably the same psychology as with spending $5 a week for lottery tickets rather than doing something more productive with the money.

It's working very well here and now.

To spin that thought a little further, the earliest point in time where people will start to believe in earnest that maybe the price of their houses won't bounce back in a year or two is around 2008 or 2009, because median prices already dropped by 25% in 2001, and look at what has happened since...

newsflash

http://www.krdotv.com/DisplayStory.asp?id=10401

That’s right. However, I’d argue if you throw stock options or the unshakable belief that housing prices will always go up into the mix, at least some people might hang in anyway because they think they will hit it big someday.

.....and this is why we have a bubble. Stocks have proved themselves time and time again that they don't always go up. I have stock options in a company I worked at 8 years ago,...they are still around, but those options are worth nothing....In fact, just last week I went out for some beers with a few friends I made at that company and we were making stock option jokes about the company ;) As far as housing, all you have to do is look around you and you can see that the prices are no longer going up. It is hard to believe you will hit it big if most of your income is disposable whether you make a lot or not.

It makes me sad to hear stuff like this, but it does happen. I guess because I worked in elementary school I didn’t see or hear about this as much; younger kids are generally easier for the teachers to manage. But there is no excuse for tolerating this behavior at any age.

That's right. When I heard that it's kinda accepted behaviour and generally good clean fun to stuff nerdy kids head first into the trashcan, I thought this happens only in the movies. I'm not so sure anymore.

Maybe we need to think about not throwing the kids with the most intellectual potential into the dumbass zoo, but rather giving them an environment where they're not stressed out to the max every single day of their young lifes.
Stress kills brain cells, you know.

Maybe the U.S. will then be less dependent on importing foreign education in form of H-1B visa holders.

Funny coincidence:
Today's SJ Mercury has a story about how Bay Area school districts need to import teachers from all over the world because they can't get anyone else. Quote:
"Rogelio Calimag, a 31-year-old math teacher from the Philippines asigned to San Mateo's Bayside Middle School, says he is adjusting to the fact that students here are more socially outspoken, while at the same time less willing to participate in the class academically than in the Philippines."
My translation:
"I could kick my own ass that I'm now stuck having to teach math to a bunch of lazy, undisciplined brats."

Housing is showing a decline in my neck of the woods. A house down the street has already lowered their asking price almost 50k and it’s still sitting. And it’s just been announced that they are going to build approx. 2000 more homes right up the road in the next couple of years.

Exactly SQT....The bubble has already popped and houses have lost a significant amount of value.....the sellers (in denial) just don't know that yet......as for the rest of us, we don't know how much value they lost...... We'll see what happens by next spring......that's when it will get much more interesting. The same fear that drove the prices up like a rocket will drive them down (maybe even just as fast) like a falling brick.

Maybe the U.S. will then be less dependent on importing foreign education in form of H-1B visa holders.

... and thus avoid or amelioriate the huge cycles in CA real estate when periodically, a large number of well-educated and well-paid people move in from abroad and need a decent place to live.

I still think we’ll see the biggest decline in the RE market when the IO and ARM loans start adjusting en masse

Yes.... Dean Baker described this as a ticking time bomb......tick....tick....tick. :)

That $459K condo that is out on the market will be worth $1 mil in 5 years. Mark my words!

Good luck, man. More power to you.
Just imagine a future where dynamic people like you have all become powerful real estate tycoons and everyone else just works to increase the tycoons' wealth. It sounds like heaven.

And since you opened my eyes about the simplicity of it all - either make big bucks, refinance or walk away - I must now go and contact my dead real estate agent.

The fact of the matter is that there is always a buyer in California. Simple supply and demand.

Not bitter, lobsters are really great with watercress and white truffle oil. But mayo is not bad either. I do not know why people keep insisting on dawn butter, which ruins the texture of lobster meat IMO.

Not bitter, I see that you are in San Jose State Univ. If you did not have dinner yet, you should consider going to The Grill in Fairmont. They have a really nice Lobster Martini. Ignore the caviar on top though.

I’ve also noticed a trend among troll like posters to use a sort of revolving IP address, I assume so that the posts cannot be blocked. If you keep posting it would be interesting to see what your IP address looks like, it would be confirmation of troll status if it keeps changing. We’ll see.

Troll meat is best with extra virgin olive oil. Eat with white Japanese onion and raw garlic.

What goes into a Lobster Martini?

Celery root. Lobster meat. Mayo. Lime juice. Yum!

I was depressed yesterday but the Lobster Martini turned me around.

That $459K condo that is out on the market will be worth $1 mil in 5 years. Mark my words!

The $10-a-pound lobster will be $1000 a pound in 5 years. Mark my words.

OMG! We better stockpile lobsters and put them in our bathtubs!

I’d keep the caviar though, might be tasty with troll meat.

Troll meat is too gamey for me. I rather eat vegetarians. :)

I don’t know, vegetarians tend to taste like soy…….

Vegans taste like soy. Vegetarians taste like... I forgot.

That $459K condo that is out on the market will be worth $1 mil in 5 years. Mark my words!

I do hope that the condo is only an investment. Who wants to walk near a $459K condo in San Jose?