patrick.net

semperfi,

I would urge you to seriously try living in NZ first, especially in the winter months, because very likely you will regret your choice. I know NZ and Oz very well, have family and friends at these two places. Check out the biggest source of immigrants for Oz, it is.....yep, you got it, NZ.

Just do yourself a favor, spend 6 months there, and make sure you check out the variety of veggies and fruit in NZ, oh, make sure you check the price, especially the ratio to the local pay. If you are a meat eater, I hope you like mutton.

Everyone I know who moved to NZ from somewhere else end up leaving, no exceptions, I hope you will stick it out.

I feel for the Hispanic family.

Peter P, I know that a lot of info is public, but some people have an easier time accessing that info than others. I have a computer, I have a college education with some mathematical emphasis, my birth language is English, I have been close to several real estate transactions in my life, and I do not trust people. I can find information more easily than someone who does not have a computer, has perhaps a high school or community college education, thinks in a different language from most documentation, or has no experience with mortgage finance. I have more motivation to find information than good folks who believe that people are good and that the nice man behind the desk wants to help them get their house.

Also, I have seen enough ads for neg am loans to know that they are presented in a slick and shiny way, and it sounds as though the broker might have been less than clear with the actual contract when he asked them to sign.

Seriously, if we don't keep a few rules around to protect the lambs from the predators, society will get seriously f**ked up.

OO,

I have no plans to move there in the near future. What I now have is a "bolt hole" to run to in case I need to. I also have enough assets to not have to really work in NZ owing to the timely sale of my overpriced Silicon Valley home last year. My kids are 3 and 7 and I will be g0dd*mned if I allow them to grow up in the cesspool that may result from the mother of all bubble blow-ups.

Semper Fi

SQT,

I envy you. You live in a different world. Or may be should I say the dreaded "The BA is different" ?

I certainly expect the number of sales to pick up a bit in the Spring/Summer here. People are already salivating at the concept of not having to pay 20% more than last year and not having to go through bidding wars. It's a great time to buy !

That is an unfortunate reality of BA. People do earn more here, although the "more" part is often greatly exaggerated. But the immigrant herd mentality is also very much to blame. The desperation to own and willingness to accept sh1tboxes as homes, is PERHAPS more for immigrants. And since most of these techie folks arrived here in later part of 90s, they do not believe that RE can go down, and stay down. In their experience RE always went up in India (every downturn was short and followed by a swift roaring upturn).

There are hardly any parallels between India and US as far as RE goes. But these are super smart engineers and hence very poor at investment math. I am no Warren Buffet, but still, even I can see that the numbers don't make sense. I simply share the URL to Randy's bubbilzer whenever I can, but since most these folks think I am an idiot, I really don't say much.

We're talking Spring Bounce like a Dead Cat Bounce, right? The REIC will do anything to spin that sales are exploding at an exponential rate. There will be statistics like, "In the middle 19 days of March, sales surged 114% compared to the prior 19 day period." All advantage will be taken of quarterly homebuilder reports and other easy twisted news. Geographic lines will get conviniently redrawn with all sorts of exceptions. "With the exception of Greeley, the overall Larimer and Weld county real estate market median price is up 11% compared to the third quarter of 2006, when NAR chief economist David Lereah called the bottom."

If litigation happens over the crazy loans, here is what FB's truly deserve. They should get back all the monthly payments they've made, minus taxes. The bank should get the keys to the house. It's ridiculous to think that someone should be allowed to keep an $700,000 house "for free" after suing a mortgage broker. If you are compensated for the damages, then you have to give up the ill-gotten loot, too. And the bank or MBS purchaser should have to suffer through the REO because of its completely shitty underwriting and securities research practices. If you buy junk paper, then you should deal with the consequences.

-easy twisted
+easily twisted

Paul, Punchbowl,

Check out BlockShopper.com!

This guy has ALL the skinny on exclusive homes in that area along with some really "juicy" commentary! Since most of the guys I know here in the Portland area worked CME or CBOE I'm guessing the Monday following Superbowl will be....... a painful experience. Go Bears! (and ignore that Vegas line!)

Forsaken,

Thanks for the Schiff vs. Liereah TKO! (Technical Knock-Out).

What's funny is that in the previous thread HARM linked a USAToday article about the explosion in 2nd home sales over the last several years and DL openly admits that the cap gains exemption provided the catalyst for it all! I just wish Peter would have brought that up.

When Liereah implores Schiff to *not compare us (NAR) to the stock market it was dual in purpose. Firstly houses aren't going to implode like dotcom's AND we (NAR) are not prone to the corruption that lead to the stock market's meltdown! DL (as usual) was wrong on both accounts.

SQT Says:

"I think we’re on the front lines of a big bust."
_____

But how can that be? Financial guru/talk-host Bob Brinker says everything is fine with housing and if you're a housing bubble advocate, you're tantamount to a paranoid wingnut or simpleton.

And whatever Bob says, I believe.

Why, if he said snow was black, I'd drink the Kool-Aid and swallow it hook, line and Brinker, I mean sinker. After all, he's the mighthy fricken Bob Brinker who called the market when no one else could find their economic
a-- from a hole in the ground!

Then, on second thought, what if SQT is right?

SQT,

Your husband's friend seems to be suffering from a severe case of "leveragitis"? I've had friends in that "cat bird seat" where every SB in their region is "feeding" them clients big time. From what you've shared your husband doesn't strike me as one of those guys that would actually enjoy the supreme irony of this guys situation? Can we here suggest that he lighten up and live a little?

Think of it this way. During "The Great Re-Fi Craze" this MB was making "big fat stacks" GIVING away borrowed money at 4-5%! Guys like Mr. SQT (and myself) were trying to get by SELLING a 4-5% return!

So...... getting paid 2 points on "borrowed money" at rates so low you had to go back to the 1950's for a comparison OR feeling fortunate to get 1 pt. on "after tax" investable assets makes perfect sense? Sure! Sounds right to me.

Person,

Depends on the environment. Back in the early 90's (with sterling credit) our mortgage WAS at 8%! This is the corner the REIC has painted themselves into. The buying public has been acclimated to believe that 5-6% 30 yr. FRM IS the "standard". As per my post above see how much fun it is to "sell" 8-9% money in a market of declining home values.

Yeah, it'd be a lot like that.

"A Harris poll conducted last year that ranked occupations in terms of prestige placed real estate brokers at the very bottom of a list of 23 professions. (Firefighters and doctors were at the top.)

Brokers themselves seem well aware that their business isn’t always held in very high regard. The National Association of Realtors has an advertising campaign called “Someone You Can Trust,” which stresses that Realtors are subject to mandatory ethics training. “Not many professionals can claim that on their résumé,” the ads read."

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/realestate/28cover.html?_r=2&ref=realestate&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

It's funny, the three people I know who are Realtors are all nice and quite honest people, but I did encounter a couple of scumbags when I first moved here and was looking for a place. I looked at one of the Painted Ladies on Alamo Square (famous in postcards, has gentrified a bit, but still rough) and the Realtor kept telling me it was a great, 'prestige' neighborhood. "Then why does everyone around look like a Blood or a Crip?"

I also have a friend who bought a gorgeous house in the city, and has discovered over $1 million in undisclosed dry rot and water and termite damage. Apparently the seller's agent has two lawsuits against him at this moment for not disclosing known defects.

Is there anywhere where you can find out about dishonest Realtors?

I wonder how sticky the prices will be on these houses?

also, I wonder how there is going to be a spring bounce when foreclosures are at a 52 year high, sub-prime lenders are going under and lending standards tightening up. Seems like a lot of different $hit is hitting the fan at the same time; what a mess!

New thread: The Sci-fi Housing Bubble Future

SP,

Just like sibling rivalry, you can only stop your wife's behavior if you start acting exactly the same way, except worse. When she calls you out on the behavior, call her out and hopefully you can establish a truce.

WARNING: While this may constitute advice, it may go horribly wrong and result in cold dinner, nights on the sofa, and in extreme cases, divorce and/or dismemberment. Proceed at your own risk.

When she calls you out on the behavior, call her out and hopefully you can establish a truce.

That can't get no truce.

People are still a little scared about not buying in if they haven’t yet, but foreclosures are going through the roof.

They have to be very scared about buying for the bubble to really burst. Foreclosure is an indicator that future psychological shock is building up.

Trust me, by the time the bubble burst, many people on this blog will have lost interest in buying.

Realtors are getting mighty desperate

SQT:

I wasn't quoting Brinker, just giving the gist of his remarks.

I think Brinkers words were "Cassandras," in regard to the housing bubble implosion advocates.

He cited some stats that sounded more like a dead-cat-bounce, than a bonafide base being set on prices.

All in all, Brinker seemed irritated at housing bubble believers.

Oh, well. Whatever. Nevermind.

SQT,

Then you definitely married a CLASS GUY! I realize they are friends and all but the quickest way to no longer be "my" friend is to pretend to be oblivious to your good fortune!

If you're knocking down major bucks in a down cycle (whatever the industry) you've got genuine bragging rights! Having a horse shoe in your back pocket b/c the Fed took rates to 1% and you happen to have a "free money" placard on your desk does *not constitute "skills".

SP,

Oops. Next thing I know, I get slapped with a libel suit from Mrs. SP...

But yeah, so I've been told (hey, maybe I could start my own libel case -- KIDDING!). Well, it works(kind of), with my mom...until she forgets and starts all over again.

I do practice the behavior you described everytime my dad gets too cocky about his investment portfolio.

Hi_There,

Aren't those the NAHB's numbers?

I am reposting this here as well as in the latest thread
*****************************************************
The numbers that Hi_there posted are from the just released CME Case-Shiller Indices for November 2006 (please attribute your numbers in the future!). The numbers (with month to month percentages for the past two months and a year to year percentage) are at:
http://www.macromarkets.com/recent_news/articles/2007/01302007_S&P.pdf
Check out Boston… pure ugliness for the past year.
I think the Las Vegas numbers are looking so good as they haven’t had much of a chance to get “arms length” transaction numbers. New contruction isn’t included in the Case-Shiller CME Indexes. The SF Bay Area Index (which includes Alameda and Contra Costa counties) is showing increasing declines over the past two months of data (Sept/Oct, Oct/Nov).

DinOr,

Thanks - I posted that link a couple threads ago. Clearly when I was looking for work in '02 I should have been spending my time borrowing bucks and buying memberships at CME and CBOT. Oh well.

Bears got it - no worries!

Paul