patrick.net

CB Says:
I heard that the Hong Kong housing bubble burst wiped out a lot of families. Perhaps Hong Kong is not in Asia.
Upside down families commit suicide by buring charcoal and closing all the windows, that used to happen a lot after the housing bubble burst.

oh, glorious capitalism. My BIL has just come back from living in HK for 12 years, and says HKites were just insane about chasing anything that looked like it would make money. Every new property release was massively oversubscribed by specuvestors, etc... It's all fun and games until someone loses an eye...

hey, we got 3 posts in tied at 7:34pm! who said patrick.net was dead... ;)

Lacoste is huge in China too, spawning tons of imitation brands & "genuine" Lacoste from Thailand - allegedly from the same factories that produce for Lacoste. There's a Lacoste outlet in Leesburg, VA. I thought about buying something for my cousins, but then suffered massive sticker shock considering the quality of goods offered.

eburbed,

Everybody loves pirated stuff. My mom knows an elderly Taiwanese American woman living in Diamond Bar who claim to get pirated CDs for under a buck each.

oh, glorious capitalism. My BIL has just come back from living in HK for 12 years, and says HKites were just insane about chasing anything that looked like it would make money. Every new property release was massively oversubscribed by specuvestors, etc… It’s all fun and games until someone loses an eye…

The WSJ once had a piece about how some typical political speech words are difficult to translate into chinese. Like... "Stakeholder". Apparently that's really hard.

On the other hand "Hedging our bets" is easily translated because the Chinese have a rich culture of gambling.

But as in “You’d be foolish not to pirate”.

And your objection is .... ? ;-)

I think I break away from the stereotype here. I buy my songs on iTunes. It's not worth pirating when it's less than a buck and you pay for only the songs you like. I think the earlier DVD makers realize that, the better.

For movies, the Indian movies that one can rent from Indian stores are completely pirated and real bad copy. I refuse to watch them because the video sucks. They compress the entire 3 hour movie on a single DVD-R. Terrible. I have a fabulous plasma TV and my eyes cannot tolerate bad picture quality.

On the other hand “Hedging our bets” is easily translated because the Chinese have a rich culture of gambling.

Do they ever. Go to the casino at any time in Sydney, and see who 95% of the patrons are. James Packer of the Packer dynasty (richest guy in the country) just sold a national TV station the relative size of CBS to plough the money into Asian casinos -- and he also already owns major casinos in Oz -- Crown Casino in Melbourne etc. Ditto if you visit that one too. A 20-something kid working in a bank here embezzled about $4M recently and gambled it all away...

Although social policy buzzwords like 'stakeholder' had to be coined and come into vogue in English as well...

astrid,

I always wore alligator shirts when I was little. My aunt bought them for me all the time. I recently found a photo of myself in a white alligator shirt and a pair of khakis, I was about 11 and at summer camp. The really scary thing is I still walk around in white alligator shirts and khakis almost 30 years later. I need a waredrobe update.

Interesting:

Russia probes smelly orange snow
Map of Russia
Russia has flown a team of chemical experts to a Siberian region to find out why smelly, coloured snow has been falling over several towns.

Oily yellow and orange snowflakes fell over an area of more than 1,500sq km (570sq miles) in the Omsk region on Wednesday, Russian officials said.

Chemical tests were under way to determine the cause, they said.

Residents have been advised not to use the snow for household tasks or let animals graze on it.

"So far we cannot explain the snow, which is oily to the touch and has a pronounced rotten smell," said Omsk environmental prosecutor Anton German, quoted by the Russian news agency Itar-Tass on Thursday.

warning: don't eat the orange snow...

But as in “You’d be foolish not to pirate”.

And your objection is …. ? ;-)

Maybe its time to reveal that I used to work on packaged consumer software :(

http://www.plexusinstitute.org/NewsEvents/show_Thursday_Complexity_Posts.cfm?id=154

A US government web site in Chinese language translated the term as “participants with related interests.” A story in the December 7 Wall Street Journal by Neil King Jr. describes the great translation scramble. State-run academies sent scholars to Washington to decipher the term, the Journal reports, and the implications of various interpretations were scrutinized. In addition to the US State Department translation, the Journal says, Chinese scholars came up with other possibilities: “participants with related benefits and drawbacks”, “joint operators”, and “shareholders.” Depending on the interpretation, the implications of the term could range from risky to rosy.

Hm, I've never thought of the meaning of stakeholder like that.

eburbed,

Hey, don't go after me, I spend a lot of money on fully licensed software, music and DVDs...and then swear a lot when my computer crashes, yet again.

the trick is to come up with your own desirable designer label. those guys must think it's hilarious to be able to make a t-shirt for $5 wholesale, including freight and customs duty, and sell it for $75... over and over again, to the label fetish crowd...

I just read an article where the ex-wife and co-founder of Billabong surfwear now lives alone in a sustainable tin shed, while her ex-husband is putting the finishing touches on a 5 storey waterside mansion with helipad or whatever...

Well, stakeholder doesn't translate well into either Communism or Feudalism, though I think the Chinese are becoming quite aware of the phenomena. The force retired employees of state owned enterprises may not have a name for their predicament, but they know the uncomfortable place they're in.

It'll take a bit longer become the idea fully sink in. Meanwhile, the Mainland Chinese are a selfish, self centered, egotistical, cunning, yet incredibly naive populace. If I wasn't one of them, I could never have any affection for the Chinese.

the word 'stakeholder' is a bit redundant if you don't have a govt which is at least nominally a participative democracy, or equally well where you have a minimalist govt which offers very little by way of social goods, as there is no need for the word or concept...

wasn't the main driver for the chinese communist revolution the very fact that it was a 'nation devouring itself' due to the general self-centredness and ultra-mercantilism? increasingly a marker of high capitalism as well...

Frugality and wealth are different things although somewhat related. If you make enough money, you can engage in a lot of conspicuous consumption and still be fine. If you don't make a lot of money, being frugal can allow you to buy things (such as a house) that less frugal consumers would not be able to afford.

I think Asian wealth and frugality impacts the housing market at different points. A person with a low income and who does not otherwise have other assets or rich parents is unlikely to ever save enough before your kids grow up to buy in a wealthy community such as San Marino. If you are buying in San Marino, you are not competing against the frugal Asian. You are competing against the rich Asian. At lower price points, I think a large population of first generation Asian immigrants with high savings rates and who view home ownership as a safety net creates a pool of buyers that help support the market.

I guarantee that not everyone who buys a house in San Marion is a wealthy expat from HK, Taiwan, or the PRC. Nor are they all double income professional couples who have squirrled away a $400,000 down payment by living in a cramped studio apartment in Rosemead ever since graduating from medical school.

I am quite certain that many recent buyers in San Marino are leveraged well beyond the breaking point, and have used neg-am mortgages, I/O ARM's, and every other trick in the book. Some just want to live there, others are speculating and hoping for appreciation.

I am sure the same is true of Cupertino.

Joe Schmoe:

No one is saying that there are no recent buyers in San Marino (or any other immigrant-favored area) who are not leveraged beyond the breaking point. Some probably are. No one is also saying that such areas will be immune from general market declines. But the existence of a pool of potential buyers who are less sensitive to the mortgage insanity of recent times and who are willing to pay a premium for good schools can help support the market in those areas.

OO,

Well, part of the irony is that the first generation's frugality also fuels the second generation's consumption. The first generation often makes huge sacrifices to expensively educate their kids and pay off their tuition, making it possible for the second generation to acquire the habits and means to spend very freely.

SFWoman,

Are LV bags cheaper in France than in the US or made in different production centers? Otherwise, why don't the tour groups come to the US and buy to their hearts' desire.

Sandibe,

Well, part of the problem I have is that you say "...willing to pay a premium for good schools" as if that is something unique to Asians.

Everyone values good schools! It's what the whole phenomenon of "white flight" is ultimately based on. Single people aren't afraid to live in the city, but no one with children wants to send their kids to school there. So people buy expensive houses, and endure awful commutes, so their kids can grow up in a safer, more nurturing setting.

Now it is true that Asians tend to place a greater value on good schools than other ethnic groups. I can see them being willing to make greater financial sacrifices than other groups in order to ensure that their kids go to good schools. Although I think this distinction no longer holds true among well-educated people; two Ph.D engineers of any ethnic group are likely to value education every bit as much as two Asian Ph.D engineers. And these are the very people who buy in places like Cupertino and San Marino.

Finally, I just don't buy the "wealthy expat" and "super-frugal people will support the market" arguments. The big waves of immigration from Taiwan and HK ended at least 15 years ago. There are no more wealthy expats, certainly not in any significant numbers. And for the reasons stated above, I am reluctant to accept the idea that Asians are all driving 15 year-old Corollas.

I certainly agree that San Marino and Cupertino are nice neighborhoods and will always command a steep price premium. But I do not believe that the fact that these communities are popular with Asian people will make them less susceptible to a downturn.

SP - Thanks for the photo link - wow, just wow. If you find the other one, please post it. I would love to see it.

Perhaps the anti-brand movement is the way to go. Think of all the resources wasted on brands: advertizing, markups etc. Pay for a good meal, or pay for the marketing and finance and more strip mall development.

the bags and BMW keyrings are just 'positional markers of social status' or an attempt to meet their esteem needs. once sensible people realise that, they go off the idea, and have taken another step towards enlightenment...

As someone who's been to the south bay for a long time, I tend to be very specific about a particular area.

Palo Alto is nice, except for the part east of Oregon Expressway and the part bordering Mtn View dotted with apartments, it is not very safe either. Los Altos is nice, except for the part along N San Antonio bordering El Camino in Mtn View, which is very Mtn Viewish, lots of condos and bland shopping strips. Saratoga is nice, except for the entire part east of 85 sandwiched between Prospect and Saratoga, which looks rather dumpy. Of course I covet the part of Saratoga south of 9, which is a further step up from the so-called Golden Triangle. IMHO, Los Gatos has the best downtown, but part LG along Blossom Hill looks just very boring San Jose.

Cupertino is generally no different from San Jose, with a defunct Vallco which never seems to work, but the Monta Vista area west of 85 is the only exception which looks more Los Alto-ish. Almaden is slightly better than San Jose, but rather bland, except for the part bordering directly Los Gatos along Hicks road, which is rather cute. Also, the McKean road area of Almaden is quickly becoming another Los Altos Hills in the making as more and more estate-size homes mushroom on multi-acre properties.

this is not relevant to the housing bubble, handbags or keyrings:

U.S. Lags In Family-Friendly Workplaces

(AP) The United States lags far behind virtually all wealthy countries with regard to family-oriented workplace policies such as maternity leave, paid sick days and support for breast-feeding, a new study by Harvard and McGill University researchers says.

The new data comes as politicians and lobbyists wrangle over whether to scale back the existing federal law providing unpaid family leaves or to push new legislation allowing paid leaves.

The study, officially being issued Thursday, says workplace policies for families in the United States are weaker than those of all high-income countries and many middle- and low-income countries. Notably, it says the U.S. is one of only five countries out of 173 in the survey that does not guarantee some form of paid maternity leave; the others are Lesotho, Liberia, Swaziland and Papua New Guinea.

Face Reality,

in fact Saratoga east of 85 is cheaper than Monta Vista Cupertino. There is a big spread in price within the same town depending on the school district and location. Part of Los Gatos in Moreland district is significantly less expensive than the LG part in the LG-Saratoga Union, with Monte Sereno as the creme de la creme. There's also a part of Cupertino that borders Los Altos Hills (at the foothill of Rancho San Antonio) that is selling at par with Los Altos, I looked at them a few years back when it just got developed, very big lots.

It really boils down to which particular neighborhood you are talking about.

SFWoman,

I'm just speculating here, but maybe all those Chinese buying at the LV store are doing so because it doesn't occur to them that the LV items in the department stores are genuine.

StuckinBA,

I take your point about the waiting lists for the private schools at the existing rates, but I can tell you right now that my immediate family could no more afford $1200 a month for any of their kids' schooling than fly to the moon.

And within our wider family (who are mostly in the UK) WE are considered to be the wealthy relatives, because mum can afford to travel to the UK from here in Oz every couple of years to meet up with them.

My 'cousin' (technically my mother's cousin's daughter) and her husband are coming to Australia for a month's holiday this year, and will spend a week or so in our town. For them, this is literally a once-in-a-lifetime trip. They've been planning it since 2004.

(And in passing I know from talking to them last year in England that they are very worried about the housing prospects for their early-20s twin daughters. The UK bubble is every bit as bad as the US, and while the daughters and partners could get a loan the repayments as a percentage of household income would be ridiculous.)

SQT,

To pick up on Muggy's DJ theme, how about a thread (or another thread, if it's already been done) on housing bubble lyrics for popular songs? Stuff for the regulars to Karaoke at the next party, maybe. :)

I have a couple of ideas myself, but they're reworks of 60s/70s songs which I suppose dates me as boomerscum. :(

CB Says:

> (Los Gatos is) too snobbish for my taste,
> I don’t need to see 50 people in their bicycle
> outfits sipping lattes

You have to admit that it is fun to laugh at the out of shape tech. dorks who put on matching outfits and ride ½ mile on a $6,600 full suspension mountain bike for a cup of coffee…

Different Sean Says:

> The United States lags far behind virtually all
> wealthy countries with regard to family-oriented
> workplace policies such as maternity leave,
> paid sick days and support for breast-feeding

Another study founds that the United States well is ahead of virtually all wealthy countries in actual “work”…

The more time people are on 8 week vacations, maternity leave, paid sick days or breast feeding the less time they are actually “working”…

Face Reality said: Renting may work if you can find a good rental house that fits your needs and you can stay there as long as you wish. Unfortunately, that’s not how rentals typically work. It becomes hard to move your family every year or two, and to keep finding new places.

This is not my experience. Not at all. I have always selected my rentals (usually SFH's) carefully, and so far I have always been able to stay as long as I wanted--usually 4 years at a time. Typically I move to get a shorter commute and other conveniences and intangibles. Typically I do not see a rent increase over the 4ish years I live in a place--I am a good renter, pay on time, and rent for individuals rather than agencies. Typically when I move I do not see a big increase, either--I do not move when the rental market is hot.

Renting is not bad. In fact, I rather like being able to move when the job moves, or when we want a new town.

Face Reality Says:

> Renting may work if you can find a good rental
> house that fits your needs and you can stay
> there as long as you wish. Unfortunately, that’s
> not how rentals typically work. It becomes hard to
> move your family every year or two, and to keep
> finding new places.

Then Eliza Says:

> This is not my experience. Not at all. I have always
> selected my rentals (usually SFH’s) carefully, and
> so far I have always been able to stay as long as I
> wanted–usually 4 years at a time.

Anyone that “has to move every year or two” is either the unluckiest guy in the world or is not asking the right questions when they rent. You want to rent from someone that has been a landlord for a long time “and” who plans to continue being a landlord for a long time.

My parents have owned all their rental homes on the Peninsula for over 30 years and have never asked anyone to move and like most landlords keep the rent below market for good tenants in the hope that they won’t move.

FormerAptBroker Says:
Another study founds that the United States well is ahead of virtually all wealthy countries in actual “work”…
The more time people are on 8 week vacations, maternity leave, paid sick days or breast feeding the less time they are actually “working”…

Does that define quality of life then? Those things are all legitimate work entitlements. Anyway, you're in good company with Lesotho, Liberia, Swaziland and Papua New Guinea. ;)

Is there a link to the youtube 'Mortgage gangsters' clip that works? It is marked as private...

My parents have owned all their rental homes on the Peninsula for over 30 years and have never asked anyone to move and like most landlords keep the rent below market for good tenants in the hope that they won’t move.

I've only rented in complexes from corporations. Is it better to rent houses instead?

Also, 1st generation immigrants act very differently from 2nd gen. What’s ironic is, 2nd gen are usually disgusted by their parent’s thrifty behavior and go entirely insane once they become financially independent. 1st gens are mostly thrifty, there are exceptions of course, but very few spend like a typical American.

That's why we need to clamp down on immigration. These 1st gens are making things worse for everyone by insisting on working hard and saving. :(

I have a cheap knock off Christian Dior bag. It's a very handy size and shape for me. Plus, I don't think many people recognize the brand. It's almost as if I was carry a brand X bag. The meta implication of this bag amuses me whenever I carry it.

I always wondered why BMW has such nice key chains, I guess it's all an extension of what I will now call the "handbag theory of consumerism."