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Peter P
2006 Feb 15, 11:12am
I have nothing to say. I must call my realtor now. I may have to feed squirrels.
Really good post on "The Mess That Greenspan Made" today about the Orange County and San Diego real estate markets starting to tank:
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2006/02/homebuilders-must-sell.html
That's a great blog by the way, I highly recommend it.
Randy H
2006 Feb 15, 12:59pm
It has indeed been a great pleasure working with all of you over the past year. Indeed, I have come to the realization that quantitative methods are all but useless, especially when applied to economics and finance. It is therefore, with great pleasure, that I can announce to you now that I have accepted a new position as the Senior Director of Buyer Sentiment and Credit Appreciation Marketing with the California Association of Realtors. I hope to be working with Ms Appleton-Young in the coming year to repair the damage done by the remaining bears.
I hesitate to hijack the good news of others, but I cannot contain my excitement that Mr. Surfer-X has also accepted a position as Director of Generational Marketing, and will be working alongside myself to help educate the elder generations about the benefits of owning investment property to augment retirement income and enjoy recreational pursuits.
"I cannot contain my excitement that Mr. Surfer-X has also accepted a position as Director of Generational Marketing..." --Randy H
I can see the inaugural Surfer-X speach now:
"Fuck fuck fuckity fuck fuckin' Boomers! Fuck 'em all!"
I cannot contain my excitement that Mr. Surfer-X has also accepted a position as Director of Generational Marketing, and will be working alongside myself to help educate the elder generations about the benefits of owning investment property to augment retirement income and enjoy recreational pursuits.
ROTFLOL
Oh, I'd PAY to see that!
"We had another shootout with the SJPD yesterday at the El Mercada market yesterday on White Rd. I came home and saw the chopper flying in circles above the store. Never a dull moment."
I was wondering what that damn noisy ghetto bird was doing up there.
So the whole market crash scenario was wrong after all, huh? :-(
Well, at least now I can take out an IO loan with my Phoenix night club
rock band salary and not have to worry about shit anymore.
I had a suspicion it was all anti-housing equity hype and jealousy.
Anytime's a good time to buy now since appreciation in the 15-20% range
is a given.
Eutopia has arrived.
We'll all be bloody rich!
Ha, sorry I wasted my time here.
What a bunch of losers. What are you waiting for, Christmas?
Get a life. Buy a house!
I am so happy that it turns out there is no housing bubble! Tomorrow I will close on an $800K condo in SOMA that overlooks highway 101 right next to the scenic Bay Bridge. The Bay Bridge is kind of right outside my window in this $hitbox and the incessant humming noise of traffic constantly wafts through my one small window along with copious amounts of burnt hydrocarbon exhaust. But of course you get what you pay for and everyone know that $800K is only a "starter home" in the Land of Milk and Honey, oh right, I mean "The Bay Area."
Next year after my condo appreciates 105% I will probably trade up to a palace in Pacific Heights where I will sit on my sun deck and ogle MILFs all day while swilling martinis with my Boomer neighbors. I will just keep pulling equity out of the house as it appreciates forever to keep the bong fully loaded at all times so my friendly new Boomer neighbors and I can remained permastoned forever and listen to Hendrix and Floyd all day and like, totally trip out and laugh about those wacky days when I actually thought there was such as thing as a "housing bubble!" How silly. Pass the bong!
"NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell for a third consecutive week as demand for loans to purchase homes dropped to its lowest level in over two years, an industry trade group said on Wednesday."
Ahhh...the wealth effect is great!
Nobody needs a mortgage anymore...we are all so rich we pay cold hard cash for our Mc$hitboxes.
There is no housing bubble, and I am glad.
Hey, np, HITMAN -you perma-bulls totally rock!
Now, back to reality...
Perhaps we’ll even be fortunate enough to pay off our debt and be in the market to buy after prices have stagnated 5 yrs and interest rates have come down.
@BearMD,
Prices "stagnating" for 5 yrs (or more) would be the IDEAL-case scenario for RE bulls. Even 5 years of inflation +stagnant prices would not erode away enough of the increases of the last 5 years to make much of a difference, in terms of bringing them back to historic price-rent/price-income (PE) ratios. I don't see any inflation-only scenario that's likely to allow mean reversion to play out in less than decades, unless we experience hyperinflation --which of course would be far worse for the economy than RE price deflation.
My wild guess: Over the next several years we'll probably see a combination of gradually rising inflation (care of the Fed), which will account for some of the price correction, but most will have to come in the form of nominal price drops.
Peter P
2006 Feb 15, 5:04pm
I am going to look at homes this weekend with a realtor, so do not expect much writing from me. I will be busy going over disclosure documents and overbidding. Heck, I may just have to buy it as-is.
Peter P
2006 Feb 15, 5:05pm
In fact, DQNews reported January prices for SoCal, up 13% YoY!
See, no housing bubble! I cannot believe how wrong I have been. I must bid 25% over asking or I will never get it.
@ Hitman,
Here's a quote from your DQNews link that you conveniently omitted: "Last month's sales count was the lowest for any January since 2001."
Dude, if you are going to post a link, throw us a friggin bone that helps us celebrate the absence of the Bubble.
Hi guys,
looks that HBs are trying to rush to market ASAP.
Housing Construction Surges in January at Quickest Pace in 30 Years, Government Says
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060216/economy.html?.v=4
That is great news, the more they build, the harder it will crash. I can just see 12 months down the road, all the flippers trying to rush for the door to compete with the big money. It will be fun to watch.
You know... I was thinking the other day that my 11 year old toyota truck was looking a bit 1990ish. Thanks to the good news that there's apparently no bubble, I can now go out and buy that brand spankin' new Mercedes C class SUV with heated ass warmers, and lots of other whistles and doohickies. It will all be possible because I'm going to place a bid on my neighbor's chicken coop, kick out all the chickens, install marble countertops, a Subzero stainless fridge, and plaster it with liberal amounts of stucco, then resell it for a handsome profit. Say... 743K? It can be a starter home for a young innocent couple, or maybe a few boomers hungry for another investment opportunity.
Patrick
2006 Feb 16, 12:44am
What, no bubble? Gosh, I'm really sorry to have been so negative. It seemed obvious to me, but a million Realtors(TM) can't be wrong.
I'll post a link to this right away.
Patrick
So it looks like we've finally faced the facts: real estate has no ceiling.
Like it or not, we'll probably pay $15,000/sqft someday.
Seeing how real estate will continue into the stratosphere, I plan to take my speculation up there. Remember our talk of blimp condos? Get in before all the "prime" airspace is taken!
"Hitman, go quail hunting with Cheney, will ya?" --UnAlloyed
He can't, HITMAN is still too busy trying to convince people that a basis point is 1/10 of a percent. Here's his post on that again if you need another reminder of his stupidity:
KC:
Well I'm sure you are aware that values fell in SoCal solely because of the aerospace bust in the early 90s. No chance of anything like that happening this time around (wink, wink). Even though unemployment never got above 8% in the early 90s San Diego. Even though the bulk of jobs created in the last 5 years have been thanks to the real estate boom itself.
I had a nightmare last night. No kidding. I dreamed that me and my wife were on a cruiseship, sailing past Sacremento.( how this could be possible is beyond me) There were thousands and thousands of cranes and lots of condo complexes half finished. My wife suddenly had an urge to buy one of these condos. We walked in and the inside looked like the camper me and my parents went camping in as a kid..little weird gas grille and ugly yellow and brown skotch patterned wallpaper. It was 600k, yet we both thought it was some amazing deal, so we bought it. You had to go outside and use an outhouse, and there was no fridge. Just a tiny bed in an alcove and ugly shag carpeting.I woke up from that one and for a split second thouht" good god, what have I done!" then realized, thankfully, that I was still laying in bed in my rented victorina home. Weird dream.. but I bet there are weirder things in the real estate world.
Anyone noticing a jump in BA inventory lately ? S.San Jose #'s I'm tracking went from 460 to 540 in 2 days.
But I'm glad there's no bubble...now there are plenty of properties that I can over-bid on. Would it be strange to offer 5% above list price if I'm the only bidder? Or maybe I'll find a "reduced price" property and offer them the original asking price???
I sure would like to do my fair share to contribute to this great american bull market....
Peter P
2006 Feb 16, 3:22am
But I’m glad there’s no bubble…now there are plenty of properties that I can over-bid on. Would it be strange to offer 5% above list price if I’m the only bidder?
5%? I am going to overbid 25% just to be safe. What if there are phantom bidders? More inventory means more buyers! A price dip means a future frenzy. Expensive homes are bargains!
I'm sorry I missed it. I am always late to the party. So there is no housing bubble after all? Sigh. So that three quarters of a million dollar shack in the boondocks of Marin is fairly valued afterall. How could I have been so wrong? Well, nothing left to do but shut down the blog.
Marinite
Marin Real Estate Bubble
I just saw this link posted yesterday that summarizes the monthly premiums you have to pay to buy vs. rent in some of the bubble cities:
http://www.expertclick.com/NewsReleaseWire/default.cfm?Action=ReleaseDetail&ID=11732
For example, in San Franciso you've got to pay a premium of $1308 per month for the priviledge of being a homedebtor! More and more people are going to start realizing that the desperate avoidance of "being priced out of the RE market forever" is actually not worth the cost, and that is why they won't have to worry about "being priced out forever" in the long run!
Peter P
2006 Feb 16, 3:28am
Well, nothing left to do but shut down the blog.
No, you will have to turn it into a housing bull blog, just to show how wrong you have been. :)
Peter P
2006 Feb 16, 3:29am
More and more people are going to start realizing that the desperate avoidance of “being priced out of the RE market forever†is actually not worth the cost, and that is why they won’t have to worry about “being priced out forever†in the long run!
Huh? We need to let them know that if they continue to think like a bear they will indeed be priced out.
@nomadtoons2,
Nightmare??? What you've described is tthe AMERICAN DREAM, buddy! Get out there and buy your $600K camper-condo right now, and you'll never have to dream about it again --I guarantee it!
@Marinite,
You could always call rename it "Marin Real Estate Un-Bubble".
If you don't mind, I have to feature this on the blog.
Marinite
Marin Real Estate Bubble blog soon to become the Marin Real Estate Allways Goes Up at 20% Appreciation Forever blog
Just curious: How many of you have friends that are Realtors that you avoid like the plague now? I have a Realtor friend that I'm avoiding having lunch with. Why? 1. I haven't bought yet and she knows it. and 2. Her business is really drying up. In all fairness she has been a good friend over the years despite her profession and the topic will inevitably come up. I certainly won't bring it up but she definitely will. Any experience, ideas or advice on keeping the discussion civil? How are you getting along with your Reator friends?
"Marin Real Estate Bubble blog soon to become the Marin Real Estate Allways Goes Up at 20% Appreciation Forever blog " --Marinite
20%?! You need to Face Reality son. 20% is chump appreciation, Real Estate actually goes up at 105% forever. You know it's true. It's okay to admit that you were wrong if you just buy in now, otherwise you will be a poor landless peasant forever paying tithes to your Lord, er landlord.
@athena,
Why would all those "CHUMPS" (Cunning Hard-eyed Ultra-savvy Market ProfessionalS) WANT to sue their lenders?? Your lender is your FRIEND. He brings you great wealth and prosperity through the magic of debt leveraging! Why would anyone want to take them to court?
The Realtorâ„¢ is my Shepherd; I shall not want.
He maketh me to lie down in green pastures
He leadeth me beside the still waters.
He restoreth my soul
He leadeth me in the paths of appreciation for Amerika's sake.
Yea, though I walk through the Valley of the shadow of Bitter Renters,
I will fear no Bubble: For thou art with me;
Thy Lexus and thy staff, they comfort me.
Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine bidders;
Thou annointest my head with liquidity; My cup runneth over.
Surely bounty and wealth shall follow me all the days of my life,
and I will dwell in the House of Everlasting Appreciation forever.
PS Continuatiion of my question above regarding my Realtor friend:
The last lunch we had last summer together ended with her saying rather bluntly: "it's NEVER going to get any better, tannenbaum". With that the topic of conversation abruptly changed.
Her business is really drying up. In all fairness she has been a good friend over the years despite her profession and the topic will inevitably come up. I certainly won’t bring it up but she definitely will. Any experience, ideas or advice on keeping the discussion civil? How are you getting along with your Reator friends?
tannenbaum,
I recommend you call your Realtorâ„¢ friend asap, apologize and make up. A silly little thing like being right about the housing bubble is NOT worth losing a free lunch over, trust me.
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Bay Area Bubble Bloggers Admit Defeat, Throw in the Towel
Copyright © 2006 UnReality Times®. All Rights Reserved.
by Leslie Appleton-Young and David Lereah
The housing bubble blogosphere today was reeling from a shocking announcement made by an obscure but popular Bay Area Housing bubble blog, Patrick.net. The blog's overall tone is as bearish as any on the web ("SF Bay Area Housing Crash Continues" staunchly declares the site's link page).
Evidently, the site's main contributors have completely reversed course and now claim there is no housing bubble. "After so many months of denying the obvious, we had no choice but to call it quits and Face Reality," says Peter P, one of the blog's earliest threadmasters. "Agreed," says HARM, "it's painfully clear that we were dead wrong and housing is going to keep appreciating 15% a year forever, just like Gary Watts says it will."
The mood was mostly somber and contrite among the Patrick.net blogger gathering at the Marin Brewing Company in Larkspur, CA --a marked change from previous gatherings. "No matter how many risk-reward calculations I did, or how many times I crunched the numbers, I just plain old underestimated the power of 'it never goes down' and 'MIRAGE'," declared Randy H, one of the group's most talented market analysts. "Totally," agreed SQT, "Plus we completely ignored 'they're not making any more of it' and the lure of all those tax deductions."
Bloggers attitudes ranged from glum to confrontational. When asked to comment, Praetorian merely shrugged and began quoting G.K. Chesterton. By contrast, Surfer-X loudly encouraged the staff of UnReality Times to have sexual relations with farm animals. He then dipped his shoulder and spun Mr. Lereah around before storming out the door. "Don't take it personally", says Kurt S, "It's just 'X' blowing off a little steam. We're all a little disappointed, that's all."
Patrick Killelea, the site's founder, was not present and could only be reached by email. When asked to comment he wrote back, "Thanks, I'll post this to the links page!"
Of course, not everyone was upset. A few of the Patrick regulars, described as being moderately bullish, welcomed the news. "I think it's great," declared Jack. "Now I can start posting again about those Marin Positive Intangibles!" "It's wonderful news," agreed Mr. Right, "but it's too bad Marina Prime isn't here to share our glorious victory. This is really his payback for being banned and all. Oh, well, more free beer for us..."
"I guess there's nothing left to do except go out and get the biggest, nastiest neg-am loan on the planet and buy a stucco $hitbox before we're all priced out forever," mused HARM with obvious regret. "Imagine how much better off I'd be if I had bought when the price-rent multiple was only 35!".
#housing