patrick.net

But I’m glad there’s no bubble…now there are plenty of properties that I can over-bid on. Would it be strange to offer 5% above list price if I’m the only bidder?

5%? I am going to overbid 25% just to be safe. What if there are phantom bidders? More inventory means more buyers! A price dip means a future frenzy. Expensive homes are bargains!

I'm sorry I missed it. I am always late to the party. So there is no housing bubble after all? Sigh. So that three quarters of a million dollar shack in the boondocks of Marin is fairly valued afterall. How could I have been so wrong? Well, nothing left to do but shut down the blog.

Marinite
Marin Real Estate Bubble

I just saw this link posted yesterday that summarizes the monthly premiums you have to pay to buy vs. rent in some of the bubble cities:

http://www.expertclick.com/NewsReleaseWire/default.cfm?Action=ReleaseDetail&ID=11732

For example, in San Franciso you've got to pay a premium of $1308 per month for the priviledge of being a homedebtor! More and more people are going to start realizing that the desperate avoidance of "being priced out of the RE market forever" is actually not worth the cost, and that is why they won't have to worry about "being priced out forever" in the long run!

Well, nothing left to do but shut down the blog.

No, you will have to turn it into a housing bull blog, just to show how wrong you have been. :)

More and more people are going to start realizing that the desperate avoidance of “being priced out of the RE market forever” is actually not worth the cost, and that is why they won’t have to worry about “being priced out forever” in the long run!

Huh? We need to let them know that if they continue to think like a bear they will indeed be priced out.

@nomadtoons2,

Nightmare??? What you've described is tthe AMERICAN DREAM, buddy! Get out there and buy your $600K camper-condo right now, and you'll never have to dream about it again --I guarantee it!

@Marinite,

You could always call rename it "Marin Real Estate Un-Bubble".

If you don't mind, I have to feature this on the blog.

Marinite
Marin Real Estate Bubble blog soon to become the Marin Real Estate Allways Goes Up at 20% Appreciation Forever blog

Just curious: How many of you have friends that are Realtors that you avoid like the plague now? I have a Realtor friend that I'm avoiding having lunch with. Why? 1. I haven't bought yet and she knows it. and 2. Her business is really drying up. In all fairness she has been a good friend over the years despite her profession and the topic will inevitably come up. I certainly won't bring it up but she definitely will. Any experience, ideas or advice on keeping the discussion civil? How are you getting along with your Reator friends?

"Marin Real Estate Bubble blog soon to become the Marin Real Estate Allways Goes Up at 20% Appreciation Forever blog " --Marinite

20%?! You need to Face Reality son. 20% is chump appreciation, Real Estate actually goes up at 105% forever. You know it's true. It's okay to admit that you were wrong if you just buy in now, otherwise you will be a poor landless peasant forever paying tithes to your Lord, er landlord.

@athena,

Why would all those "CHUMPS" (Cunning Hard-eyed Ultra-savvy Market ProfessionalS) WANT to sue their lenders?? Your lender is your FRIEND. He brings you great wealth and prosperity through the magic of debt leveraging! Why would anyone want to take them to court?

The Realtorâ„¢ is my Shepherd; I shall not want.
He maketh me to lie down in green pastures
He leadeth me beside the still waters.
He restoreth my soul
He leadeth me in the paths of appreciation for Amerika's sake.

Surely bounty and wealth shall follow me all the days of my life,
and I will dwell in the House of Everlasting Appreciation forever.

I am chump.

PS Continuatiion of my question above regarding my Realtor friend:

The last lunch we had last summer together ended with her saying rather bluntly: "it's NEVER going to get any better, tannenbaum". With that the topic of conversation abruptly changed.

Her business is really drying up. In all fairness she has been a good friend over the years despite her profession and the topic will inevitably come up. I certainly won’t bring it up but she definitely will. Any experience, ideas or advice on keeping the discussion civil? How are you getting along with your Reator friends?

tannenbaum,

I recommend you call your Realtorâ„¢ friend asap, apologize and make up. A silly little thing like being right about the housing bubble is NOT worth losing a free lunch over, trust me.

"Any experience, ideas or advice on keeping the discussion civil? How are you getting along with your Reator friends?" --Tannenbaum

I recommend that you try a Surfer-X style approach with your Realtor friend:

"Fuck fuck fuckity fuck fuckin' Realtors! Fuck 'em all"

Hope that helps!

"My fuckin’ $hitbox is gonna explode with equity, huh Bubba realt-whore?
HUH?"

I gots Equity drippin' out the wazoo so's I kin buy mad bling-bling like I'm on MTV cribs yo!

DQ News is out with the lastest on Norcal. Bad news for bulls.

Check out dqnews.com.

I'm going to go pull some equity out of my million dollah chicken coop so I can go buy some new rims for my H2. I'm OUT. Later jealous bitter renter losers! Get some skills so you can get a real job and buy a house ya fuckin' trash!

@DinOR,

Got'cher Amerika.

@newsfreak,

"Bubble Gump" :lol:

Lunarpark, don't worry, be happy. From dqnews:

A decline from December to January is normal for the season.

Indicators of market distress are still largely absent.

Soon, triple digit appreciation will return!

I’m going to go pull some equity out of my million dollah chicken coop so I can go buy some new rims for my H2.

Must get those shinning, spinning rims!

"Indicators of market distress are still largely absent."

You forgot the part about down payment sizes being stable.

You forgot the part about down payment sizes being stable.

What are "down payments"? We don't have those in Kalifornia.

"What are “down payments”?"

I don't know. I will ask my grandpa. He might be familiar with the term.

athena,

Had this good friend. Worked in a bank. Sold retired guy THE MOST secure investment after a money market. AAA rated, well run bond fund for God's sake. The prinicpal eroded about 1% (1% of a million is 10K). Old guy goes berserk, threatens legal action if he doesn't get his 1% back. Bank manager buckles and writes old guy a check. Wrong! This is called "riskless" investing. Example; guy calls up and says buy me xyz shares. O.K, xyz goes up 5 points and the guy says just sell me out and send me the profit. Well, O.K but you have to pay for the principal first! The guy was never AT RISK! I have NO compassion for the slick bastards. How is I/O w/zero down any different? They never had any "skin" in the game! Peace out yo.

Here's a direct link to today's released Bay Area report from DataQuick:

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0206.shtm

SF Woman,

Can I be the manager? I've always wanted to say that I was a REIT manager. Like George Costanza telling people he's Art Van Delay, an architect. A B/A REIT w/positive cash flow? This I gotta see. While we're in Fantasyland, can we start it in 1989?

SF Woman,

Normally to retain exemption from "double taxation of dividends" we'd have to pass 90% of the profit thru to the shareholders but since we've utterly trampled traditional financial architecture anyway? Besides, what profit? New Volvos and vacation homes are expensive! That is part of my comp. package right?

And there you have it. At the core of many of the issues we face here in Ameruka center around many of us wanting "our dessert first"! Dues? Too painful! Short cuts, that's what I want!

From the DQNews report:

"The annual price increase was the lowest since prices rose 13.1 percent to $474,000 in March 2004. It's probable that appreciation will dip into the single digits during the next month or two."

Hmmm...which statement doesn't belong???
Why don't they that 13.1% is the absolute lowest YOY appreciation that can be expected in the BA? I fully expect a bounce-back to +25% YOY in the coming months. What is wrong with all of these nay-sayers lately? Don't they know...(?)

Also from the DQ report:

"Adjusted for inflation, mortgage payments are 13 percent higher than they were at the peak of the prior cycle sixteen years ago. "

What is this "cycle" thing they're talking about? Real estate, especially in the land of golden asphault, only goes up. Don't they know...(?)

I, for one, have become the office pariah because of my views on the bubble market...
Oh well, I’ll send them a “get well” card after I see their properties on the foreclosure list.

George,

You could always save/invest like crazy, then offer to take those condos off your co-workers hands in a few years --at a very steep discount of course. THEN we'll see who the "pariah" is (_rubs hands with schadenfreude glee_). :mrgreen:

You could always save/invest like crazy, then offer to take those condos off your co-workers hands in a few years –at a very steep discount of course.

Huh? Are you suggesting that it is possible to buy in the future at a discount? What kind of concept is that?

Sorry, Peter. I guess I had a temporary lapse of sanity --I'm feeling much better now.

George, what the f@#$ is wrong with you?! You call yourself a Realtor? It's never been a better time to buy and 'Indicators of market distress are still largely absent.'

@Pop!,

Makes perfect sense to me. I'm a firm believer in driving with my rear-view mirror. Sharply rising equity will bail us all out. This irresponsible fear-mongering from bears is akin to yelling "fire" in a crowded theater. Or crowded McMansion, whatever...

"Newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear"

- Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan

I don't know who is right, is there any bubble or not, but what I seen was, for the last several years, the real estate create lots of unstable and unfairness on US society, that drive ppl become greedy and let those end-users suffer.

I spend years in college, carrying 2 degrees and still worring about my job, or will recieve a pink slip one day, but those flippers, so-called investor, making $100,000 in weeks. Real estate actually create nothing, but bunch of greedy middle men, transfer the burden to the real end-users.

What I want to say is Thanks for patrick.net, that I visit everyday, and learned a lots the current news of Real Estate, which the realtor wont tell me. I feel sorry for those who server our committee well like Policeman, Nurses, Fireman, Teachers, their salary cannot let them afford a house, and have a stable life.

If I remember it correctly, Leslie Appleton-Young is the VP of CAR - California Association of Realtors, I think she just doing her job, cause thousands of people still working on Real Estate, or related business, they need to feed their families too.

Actually, I like to see the price go down or just calm down, at least let the society have a chance to breath, and recover. It just went too far.

Just one note: we should probably remove the reference to Realty Times.

"That’s because in most of the country, anyone who has owned a home for even a year or two is likely sitting on enough equity to sell or refinance if the loan payments become unaffordable.”

Okay, so maybe a lot of them are sitting on enough equity to sell without going upside-down, but selling of course creates downward pressure on prices, especially desperation selling.

And sure, many of them may have enough equity to refinance, but what do they refinance into that is going to be MORE affordable? Last time I checked mortgage rates are a lot higher than "even a year or two ago."

Just one note: we should probably remove the reference to Realty Times.

Changed it to "UnReality Times".

anyone who has owned a home for even a year or two is likely sitting on enough equity to sell or refinance if the loan payments become unaffordable.”

This is patently false. Depending on what region of the country we're talking about, anyone who bought in the last year or two (late to the party) is sitting on slim-to-none price gains. Within a matter of months, the rest of that vapor-equity --along with the easy credit that created it-- will evaporate. The days of the serial refi'er are rapidly drawing to a close.

Anyone who wishes to refinance out of an I/O or NAAVLP into a FR amortizing loan had better do so quickly, or they will be caught upside-down in an environment of tightening credit and falling prices --a negative feedback loop.