patrick.net

But wasn’t that exactly the problem? If they were so truly superior, how could they “allow” foreign oppressors and corrupt governments to weaken them?

It is all fate. No free will of a single person can do much to the fate of a nation.

John, there is a much deeper reason for me to say what I've said :)We shall see the long-term consequences ......

skibum,

I don't agree with this train of thought, but I think it goes something like

Foreign devils are able to produce some useful things. And look, dowager empress Cixi used up the navy funds to build her lavish summer palace. And look, the Opium wars were so unfair...we've been a powerful people since those foreign devils were little better than monkeys, we'll rise again and play our deserved role on the world stage.

The feeling is that the Chinese people are superior, even if they are oppressed temporarily by the system.

GC,

I doubt the Poles and the Italians harbored the same sort of global ambition as the Chinese. It goes beyond irridentism. Having a history of a powerful empire for so long, they believe they deserve to be the world's leader.

John,

That’s certainly an interesting reading of the Romance of the Three Kingdoms. It actually comes up in an even more prominent form in Journey to the West. (Monkey does all the thankless work on behalf of a totally useless monk) There are stock characters and stock themes that repeat themselves in Chinese literature.

The Chinese admire the uber men such as Zhuge Liang and Guan Yu tremendously, much more than the emperor they served. Up to 1976, Mao was venerated as something akin to the God. And if you look at the way Chinese tell their history, they emphasize the doers and risk takers who find dynasties, followed by conservatives who seek to maintain the status quo, and finally the weak emperors who lose the mandate of heaven and their kingdom. Chinese history is heavily involved with thematic story telling.

As for pre-modern Chinese history (I’m thinking of everything after North Sung), NeoConfucianism emphasized those characteristics – not bucking the trend, belief in the Mandate of Heaven, etc. That’s something seeded in the culture.

Also, let me add that "racial identity" is a very lower-class sentiment. It suffices to say that I do and say things to improve the environment in which I live. It's very selfish of me, of course. But generally speaking, I prefer not to use numbers or identify with numbers to strengthen myself. As a matter of fact, I exalt the brave (perhaps lucky) few conquering the many. Is that how every civilization was established?

So when I see a large, homogeneous group congregate -- especially when they feel no compunction about pulling me in and demanding equality, for a variety of reasons -- I sense danger and threat.

OK, I have an observation about the 3bedroom rent here.

The higher end house you go, the more you can negotiate off the asking rent. Why? How many people you know who can afford $4000 rent haven't already bought? My wife and I were considering selling our home bubblesitting last year, we were looking at something around $2500-3500 range, that would have sold for close to $1.5M in the current market.

Anyway, after presenting our credit score, and agreeing to sign a long-term lease of 1-2 years, we were able to negotiate at least $500 off the asking of $3,500 rent, because there were not that many renters willing to pay that kind of rent to begin with. One landlord offered us $2750 for his asking of $3,600, a whopping $850 cut because his house was vacant for over 3 months. So asking is just the start. We know a couple up in Burlingame who are able to get their asking of $2,800 down to 2,100 for a nice house.

We also noticed that there were far more nicer, remodeled homes for rent as compared to before. Half of the landlords we were talking to seem to have recently acquired their "investment", and they typically asked for higher rent than market (but you can always negotiate down if you have a decent profile, e.g. credit score, job, Haha in the bank etc.)

I think Patrick can do a better job to separate the asking price for 3BD apartment and 3BD house. Because apartments are pretty straight forward about what they will charge, and the asking is more reflective of the actual transaction price (perhaps FAB can comment if this is my fantasy). Houses are really all over the place, but based on 6-7 houses I have checked out, the actual price can be substantially lower than asking.

If you track 3BD houses, you also need to track whether the premium of asking over actual has grown or shrunk historically, which is an impossible task. Therefore, I think a better measure is to track apartment asking only, straight and simple. Apartment always serves as an alternative to keep individual landlords honest, if you charge too much, people can always move to apartments.

skibum,

I think the Chinese suseptiblity comes from more immediately from their recent history. The Chinese have gone through a huge amount of change in their lifetime. They're also still very naive to the workings of a capitalist economy. Thus, they're more likely to lose their bearing and go with what's hot at the moment. The mass psychology is not so different from those of the Dutch tulip speculators or the San Diego condo specuvestor.

GC,

I’m not actually offended by any of your comments. However, you do seem awfully boastful about your uber man status. That, in my mind, makes you a fun target for teasing :P

I put in a bid on a $1.8 million shitbox that was 85% over
asking price.

The realtor laughed and danced around the room like an imbecile
as that song "Safety Dance" blared through the radio.

Then she popped open a cork on a bottle of cheap Courvasier, poured
us both a drink...kissed me gently on the cheek and toasted her hefty
ass commission.

Then she said, "Mike, you're really a stupid ass for going 85% over asking price, but I guess there's one born every minute, huh? You know it's gonna take you a year and a half appreciation before you break even on your investment...and after that, you're home free."

I told her, "Yeah, I know. I'm a dumb ass but I really like it...it's precious. I can wait the year and a half for the appreciation equity to catch up. Besides, it's so full of intangibles, like that painting of the St. Paulie Girl on the bathroom wall. Besides, five years from now I'll be big pimpin' it."

Michael,

Hilarious! I love "Safety Dance"!

HARM,

for diversification into foreign currencies, there are many choices. The simplest one is to exchange into the currency that you like and hold time deposit directly. If you know for sure CAD and AUD are the ones you target, then just set up a FX account and exchange into them bit by bit.

Alternatively, you can put money in a bunch of high grade FX bonds like BEGBX (open-end mutual fund), GIM (closed-end ETF) or FCO (closed-end ETF). You can go to etfconnect.com to check out GIM, FCO.

I personally prefer GIM the most because the yield is good as well. The 5.35% shown on the etfconnect.com or yahoo finance doesn't include the year-end special bonus yield which it consistently delivers in the last few years. If you include the year-end bonus, that brings the yield close to 9.7% at around 8.5. Also, it holds strictly sovereign treasury bonds in a basket of currencies.

FCO however is more concentrated on the former British empire, UK, Australia, Canada account for over 50% of the currency exposure. The yield is however lower at around 5-6% a year.

I like closed-end funds better because I can get the same thing for a discount to NAV, unlike open-end mutual funds when I need to pay the market price. Therefore, you are paying less for the same yield. And of course, I never pay premium over NAV for any closed-end funds.

Ha, ha!

Astrid, that song's totally goofy.

Can you picture the scenario I listed above with that song blaring out.

Zany!

Steven,

NEVER TAKE LESS THAN A HA HA! HA HA! HA HA! HA HA!

Sorry, can't help myself. I'm kind of useless, but Hate to Rent and SFWoman should be good leads.

I am a believer of Jared Diamond, to a certain extent.

Therefore, I also believe that Chinese were the chosen people, just like the Egyptians, Romans, for a long period in history because of their exposure to great soil, weather, water, etc. Going forward, I believe Chinese staying in China are NOT the chosen ones, but whoever that land in America will continue to be the chosen ones precisely because of the soil, weather, water, resources, and the system that these favorable conditions breed.

The land in China has been over-farmed, water over-polluted, resources depleted, population has grown to a level entirely unsustainable by the environment, unless Chinese population drastically decreases, I see collapse instead of revival.

Owneroccupier,

I think with globalization, we'll soon be thinking about the future of humanity, rather than of individual peoples. The question is the sort of bottleneck events we'll encounter on the way.

ps,

I'm rather fond of the bloody minded, roving Englishmen (usually 2nd and 3rd and 4th sons) on their civilizing mission.

Have I ever mentioned that Frank Kingdon Ward is my personal hero? How's that for obscure?

Steven,

Don't pay attention to Ha Ha's suggestion. He constantly bombard this board with his opinion that engineers should be paid at least $150,000/yr. Knowledgable individuals on this board have debunked this claim numerous times. $150K is an unusually high wage for engineers, even in the high paying Bay Area.

Wait for others to respond to your quiry.

I am grateful for the British rule in Hong Kong, without which Hong Kong would have remained a no-name, poverty-stricken fishing village in China. Without Hong Kong's investment in China as a head start, there would have been Pearl River Delta, the largest labor-intensive manufacturing base in the world.

British may have screwed up India and Pakistan, but they have done more good to the Chinese than not. If not for the British, most of the treasures sitting in the British Museum would have been destroyed in the Cultural Revolution. The most promising cities in China today are all ports that were built by British colonial powers, which obviously didn't intend to be nice to the Chinese in the first place. The sad truth is, Chinese are even less nice to themselves compared to the colonial rulers.

ps,

You've made me so happy! Sometimes I think I (okay, and a bunch of fussy garden writers) am the only person who remember Kingdon Ward existed. :P I don't hypenate because I still think of it as his middle name. Also, hypenation is too much in vogue nowadays, so I avoid it for all my Edwardian/Georgian crushes.

I do agree that the Europeans with their 19th century "great games" and Americans with their anti-Communism efforts, has created a very messy legacy in SE Asia, Africa, and Central Asia. However, I will still remember them romantically.

Owneroccupier,

The Germans also left some excellent beer factories in the Shandong Peninsula. I'll go so far as to say that the Japanese were instrumental in the development of post-war Taiwan. ;)

astrid,

the sad historical fact for me is, more military troops, men and women, were slaughtered in the civil war struggle between the KMT and the communists (1945-1949) than Japanese soldiers killed on Chinese soil in the preceding Sino-Japanese war (1937-1945), many times over.

Where were the Chinese when China was invaded by the Japanese? Busy in-fighting, busy hiding, busy preserving their own military power, so that they could duke it out AFTER the Americans took care of Japanese.

And then, AFTER the Americans and Japanese were gone, Mao's great leap forward, aka the Great Famine and the infamous series of revolutions, killed even MORE Chinese than in the civil war. If there is one art that the contemporary Chinese have perfected, it is called killing their own kind, intentionally or unintentionally.

@Steven, Your wage will be roughly what you would get elsewhere. HaHa is full of shit. The only differential in the BA comes in the form of "intangibles", the GREAT weather and the amazing diversity of culture, and of course the food. money? Forget it. Unless you are like the other 1.4 million BA googlaires .

Owneroccupier,

I agree. Going back a little further, does anyone in China even remember the countless millions died in the Taiping Rebellion. But the Mainland Chinese government would much rather emphasize the barbarity of the English and the Japanese.

My father told me about the time in the 1970s, he was visiting some Anhui mountain (I don't think it was Huang Shan, possibly Jiuhua Shan). He met a monk there who escaped from a village in Northern Anhui around 1960. The monk told him that everyone else in the village literally starved to death. There were many villages who were wiped out, to the rest of China, these places just vanished. It's really unfathomable...but everyone in China still refer to it as the "three years of natural disaster", as if there was indeed something natural about the disaster of egotism, ignorance, and bureaucratic callousness that caused the death of tens of millions.

The really sad thing is that no young Chinese person seem to remember that. Even people in my parents' generation suffer amnesia about the bad things that happened under Mao. There is a whole generation of young urban dwellers who cannot conceive of food coupon books and going hungary. Most I meet can't even conceive of a vacation hotel without running hot water...it's a crazy world.

OwnerOccupier -

maybe you can't say, because of the connections to Falun Gong of the publication and the nefarious Chinese Secret Police, and disassociation may be the best policy, but if you can, what is your opinion of the Epoch Times?

They seem to run some very interesting pieces on impending economic doom in China, in much the same way Patrick.net has been pointing out the housing bubble to people who didn't want to listen until recently, even though it was becoming very obvious.

Do you think the Epoch Times is at all accurate in the factual elements backing up some of their non-falun gong related news pieces?

I found this recent story to be an example of the disturbing but all to frequently reported worldview of supposedly highranking but maniacal chinese leaders:

http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/6-4-23/40724.html

Is this accurate? What I mean is, how big of a grain of salt should I be taking when reading this publication, because even leaving falun gong out of it, the Epoch Times constantly makes the political and military leaders of China out to be as kooky as a bunch of North Korean Il Duces.

Thanks for any reply...;)

astrid,

it will be absurd to assume that contemporary Chinese are born a defective race, what I always want to pursue, after I am done with my professional life, is to do a very academic research on how resource per capita, nutrtion and food intake impacts individual behavior, which feeds into the culture itself.

If you read the books and remarks of Confuscious, or any Chinese philosophers of the time before the unification of China under the Emperor Numero Uno (Qin), their ideas and thoughts were so ahead of their time and somehow similar to what Jesus Christ preached, which led me to believe that all civilizations have a common goal. Just that some civilization became devastated by the environment.

Just to give an example. In the most creative time of the Chinese history, prior to Qin, Chinese were actually Sashimi eaters. Sashimi was a Chinese invention. Chinese stopped eating Sashimi, and fish subsequently due to waterway pollution around the Yellow River region. Then recently I read some research paper by a British guy arguing why British and Japanese' fish diet has given both of them an edge in brain development. I think there is something to it.

To me, Chinese dumbed down a lot ever since they got on eating pork. There must be a valid reason in some religions that pork is a forbidden part of the diet.

tsusiat,

FLG is entirely BULLSH*T. Nobody in China take them seriously, and the founder is a scam artist.

They got so famous thanks to the stupid Chinese government who gave them far more credibility than they deserve. I won't read epoch times, because it just exaggerates the darkside of China with NO objective analysis at all.

I am only interested in finding out the truth, be it positive or negative, about any country, including the one where my ancestors come from. I would say the most objective economic analysis about China comes from Andy Xie, a top Morgan Stanley economist stationed in Hong Kong. You can find his pieces at the MS site along with Roach's.

Owneroccupier,

I'm more optimistic than you are. Perhaps because of necessity, because my family and many other people I love live there.

I don't think the Chinese are a hopeless race. I think their recent history and historiography simply enhances some of their meaner qualities. Every culture has their darker moments. Remember how badly the English Cockneys were perceived? Or the Irish immigrants in America? Hopefully, as the Chinese people mature into the modern world (touch wood), they will become a "better" people.

The Chungqiu period and the Warring States period was indeed an amazing time for new ideas. However, I don't think that creativity completely went away, it just got subverted into a mainstream bureaucratic culture. The government did an amazing job of coopting the upper strata of society. The upside is that the Chinese created a lasting culture that lasted more or less for two thousand years. The downside is that it is hidebound and backward looking.

There are some excellent anthropology studies of Chinese village life from the 1920s/30s and late 1970s onwards. It's unfathomable how little resources the average Chinese peasant have to live on.

Owneroccupier-

thanks for your reply. I have no interest in Falun Gong, however, since I can't speak or read Chinese, I have no way of knowing if "interviews" are literal or creative translations or mere fabrications.

I find the dogged anti CCP tone of the Epoch Times kind of enjoyable, and have to say my bigest question has always been, how much of what is said by any Chinese news organization or official is legit and how much is BS, on any side of any issue, whether Xinhua or Epoch Times, same/same.

Culturally, how much has the old Sun Tzu/Machiavelli deviousness of these corrupt mandarins shone through is I guess the question?

I'm not really interested in economic analysis as much as "political" analysis. This is because of my impression that economically, China is as much of a paper tiger as can be, given the fact individuals there are still getting incredibly wealthy.

So whatever is going to happen, certainly I wonder how much can be known by people like us, and how much is disinformation?

I guess I believe something can be known, or Jerry Yang wouldn't be capitualting and helping his compatriots maintain control.

Just a little rant... ;)

tsusiat,

I second Owneroccupier's opinion about FLG. It was a stupid money making gimmick (think Scientology) that attracted a little too much heat from the Chinese Central government.

It's very difficult to get a coherent picture of what is happening in China. Xinhua and Renmin Daily can be useful for gauging the Central Government's intentions. Western reports are occasionally useful, but they tend to have a poor understanding about how China works. There are some interesting reporting done on the local level, but nothing that can give an overall picture of what's happening in China. You really have to be there and see with your own eyes, and rely on people who live and breath this stuff daily. A lot of critical information is passed informally as gossip.

There is a way to get facts on the ground, if you're very friendly with a very highly placed Chinese official...however, that is speaking purely in hypotheticals.

Thanks for your reply Astrid,

okay, I'll phrase it again, my real question is about "Chinese" reporting, how much of what is reported is literal?

For example, if a British paper reported events in France, and comments by a French general, probably they would be translated pretty well, 'cause lots of people in Britain speak French (not just french people now living in Britain).

With reporting on stuff in China, if I see so and so said such and such, how likely is it to be a literal translation and how likely is it to be hyperbole or BS?

Can anyone suggest a publication in which the translated comments or speeches could be reasonably expected to be accurate, from a political or current events point of view?

The reason I ask is, I think listening to what people are saying is a good place to start gauging what is happening, and I believe what is happening in China is important for the world to pay attention to right now.

Thanks.

tsusiat,

Well, the Chinese government could just censor whatever it doesn't like. I can't comment directly, but I assume that the major Hong Kong and Taiwan newspapers do a decent job of reporting China's happenings; there will be censorship and biases, but that's even the case in America, albeit to a lesser extreme.

I would just get my China news from the Economist, their reporting was pretty good back when I was still reading it.

Just don't get your info from the Epoch Times. It's absolute shite.

ps,

Ha! Brillant pin down of nomad. The regulars have all developed quite the online personality for themselves.

I guess I'll have to read the Flashman books now. ;)

tsusiat,

for economic facts about China, read Andy Xie from Morgan Stanley, you won't find a better source than him. He can peel through the bullsh*t and go straight to the facts. Someone may find him touchy feely at times, but that is the way things are in China. However, he is always early in making his calls.

For political stuff, read Far East Economic Review, which I believe you can get through your DJ subscription along with WSJ, Barrons etc.

But the real good stuff that gives you a good glimpse of state of affairs in China unfortunately is all in Chinese which is not translated. HK and Taiwan tend to have better perspective because mainland Chinese, even without the presence of censorship, tend to be over-optimistic about their situation, due to an inferiority-induced-superiority complex.

There used to be a Shanghai-born reporter at NYT who wrote many pieces about China, I forgot her name, but I think she is doing law school right now. I like her piece because she is very objective, yet compassionate without losing sight of the big picture.

Far Eastern Economic Review
http://www.feer.com/

despite its name, it's actually more politically focused.

Owneroccupier,

thanks for the tips.

Was looking at Epoch 'cause they actually print it and I saw a copy by chance in the one square block chinatown in Victoria where I buy my daily coffe.

So I went to the web-site, noted it has a political agenda but also printed numerous purported quotes from numerous CCP functionaries which were a bit scary, to say the least

I don't doubt there is tons of great objective writing about China in Hong Kong and Taiwan, but what I need is something in English.

My department store Japanese is as far as I am ever likely to get in asian languages, so an english language source for Chinese news is a necessity for me.

I will check out the Far Eastern Economic Review as suggested.

ps-

thanks!

The Housing Crash appears to be in full swing this morning with foreclosures picking up briskly (nice, nice) along with property tax delinquencies. The effect of the ARM reset is as punishing and brutal as promised and then some. Just visited C/L for the Portland area and the "lease w/option" offerings are in full spring time bloom. They are now scrambling for attention by offering "flat appreciation" models at today's prices going out 24 to 36 months. That's just how much they care about you!

The "lofts" in Portland now offer 1 year free HOA fees with a pay option ARM that's cheaper than rent! (As if 15 years of tax moratoriums aren't enough).

Let's all have a crashriffic day!

SQT,

Just doing my part to spread the good word about Crash City! I realize that I can be a little snide but so many of the articles I've read over the last few weeks seem to have this "anatomy of a crash" tone about them it just seemed appropriate. Gone are the days of spirited debate regarding the validty of a bubble, we've moved suprisingly swiftly to "what will the crash mean to you" phase. Notice though that mainstream articles always distance the sinner from the sin. "Some people that got IO mortgages". "Some people that overpaid" etc. etc.

That should read, "You people that got pay option ARMs". "You people that "won" the bidding war". I suppose though that the authors prefer to leave well enough alone b/c "those" people know who "they" are.

My cleanoffer account is generating between 5-12 new listings per week for my narrow search set (Mill Valley/Corte Madera/Larkspur). This time last year the new inventory rate was perhaps 1-3 new listings per week.

Prices are coming down slightly for the upper part of the range, but there are a surprising number of lease-options now that I look at it. And a lot of price-reduced (but I take this with a grain of salt, they're "reduced" from what they thought they should have appreciated to, which is still too high).

Excuse my ignorance, but is it possible for a buyer to refinance every couple of years to get a “teaser rate”? Never paying the note off.

Eventually the buyer would be in excess of loan-to-value unless the home appreciates faster than the transaction costs associated with the refis. These costs would include penalties associated with early repayment (which happens in refis) that usually accompany teaser-rate deals. The lenders aren't quite all that stupid.