patrick.net

You can reference the back history of discussions relating to HSBC's model and other data from my blog:

More macro evidence of hard landing for US home prices

That discussion spurred thoughts on how to create a comprehensive simulation model:

Creating a Residential Real-Estate Timing Model

And I created the Bubblizer which is a personal purchase decision modeler that is inspired by and compliant with the HSBC HomePulse model.

Randy H,

Also interesting to note that the "Froth Finders" made mention that given the steep discounts for renting there had best be substantial capital gains built into the current scenario just to "off set" the discounts. Oh, and can you tell *astrid* that Portland Oregon IS the center of the universe?

Thanks,

DinOR

astrid,

I can think of no higher compliment. We have the nicest plant nurseries. Great........ No, just kidding! I've always said that our bubble was contingent on the BA as well as Seattle and according to the HSBC report we are only slightly behind those markets in vulnerability.

I've worked with some folks that went to Reed College, very intelligent and very weird.

Robert Cote'

I'll be in the market for a late model Suburban by mid-summer. My daughters are already giving me grief. Then as my wife and I go for our afternoon walk we see the youngest one driving past us from 3 different directions as she motors about town. We've confronted her about "consolidating" trips and you just get that blank/eat sh*t look. Great......

newsfreak and DinOR,

Sorry, but teenagers in suburbans? Are you so concerned about the population pressure on this planet that you'd let your teenagers work on the problem with direct action? Remember that SUVs don't handle well, so they're more likely to be involved in serious accidents when in the hands of inexperienced drivers.

I think kids under 21 should be given moped permits and no more...

Why would seniors prefer Florida over Arizona? It seems to me that AZ winter weather would be even better and don't come with the hurricane issue.

newsfreak,

Oh, yeah. We've had our share of teen fender benders, nothing serious thank God. I grew up during the 70's gas crunch and biked a lot but it was at a time when using a bike for transportation (not fitness "challenges") was O.K. They both usually have jobs and know better than to ask "dad" for money. Uh, so they "work" on mom. Mom's getting better.

astrid,

Most retirees on the west coast go to AZ/LV and on the east coast they go to FL/VI. It's assumed that this way they can be "close" to their kids. I think it has to do with the fact that people from the west don't want to spend their winter with a "bunch of loud mouth complaining New Yorkers" and those from the east think we are flakes?

Actually, the availability of cheap second hand SUVs are a serious auto safety issue going forward. The young/inexperienced drivers had been largely locked out due to the high price of new SUVs, but now that the stock is getting old and cheap, we may soon see a lot of Suburbans in the hands 17 year old boys.

AZ has pretty good lake accessibility, and lots of gambling..

But I can't resist a gardening related reason. Newsfreak, I surrender to your greener logic!

newsfreak,

The "front" is becoming more united and you're right it boils down to financial survival. Their expectations know no bounds. It also lets the other kids (and their parents) off the hook. If you always have food in the kitchen, gas in the car and money in their wallets the other kids don't have to go through the whole degrading experience of groveling for dollars.

goober,

I don't hate kids, they're delicious if roasted with a ginger teriyaki sauce.

newsfreak,

Uh, yeah the insurance thing is a killer. What I simply can not understand is that given it's a requirement in most states and most of us will drive until we can no longer why don't the insurers offer these young people the option of some sort of "level premium". Meaning, rather than get a HUGE break when you turn 25 (or get married) charge them a lesser amount up front and then keep the premium a little higher from say age 25 thru 28 or 30 or whatever it takes to keep the underwriters happy so these kids have a fighting chance? I'll be standing by to get flamed by the industry now thank you.

"Is that why you need a new boning knife? Kid-kabobs?"

No...that was for chopping up kittens and fuzzy bunnies. :twisted:

Wasn't it MI that passed something like the "motor voter" where a penny per gallon goes into a fund so that everyone has at least basic liability? Wouldn't this be more fair?

newsfreak,

I'm Chinese. I'll eat everything with two legs except people and everything with four legs but chairs/tables. :)

It is a major PITA to sharpen a knife with a whetstone. Take it from a former Eagle Scout who has sharpened many, many knives and axe heads. I got one of those machines from Chef's Catalog to sharpen my kitchen knives and never even considered using a stone. It'd take a couple of hours, minimum, to sharpen all of the knives in the block with a three-stone system. To keep a decent edge you'd have to do that at least three or four times a year, and probably more.

Whetstones take a long, long time. You also have to get the angle of the blade in relation to the surface of the stone exactly right; if you don't, you will make a second edge. You have to keep the stone oiled, too, but not too oiled. I have never been completely successful at this; I either end up inadvertently making a really sharp second edge or getting only mediocre results when sharpening the original edge.

The knives don't stay sharp for very long, either. As Newsfreak said, carbon steel holds an edge much better, and you can do a pretty good job sharpening it with a stone, but those knives are very hard to find these days. It is hard to find a new carbon steel hunting knife, much less a kitchen knife, though someone probably makes them. I would recommend the machine for anything other than carbon steel, using a stone is just too much trouble on modern stainless knives.

I’m Chinese. I’ll eat everything with two legs except people and everything with four legs but chairs/tables.

Why not people?

Just an observation:

It wasn't all that long ago, that for all the "hard evidence" we had in our hip pocket that there was in fact a bubble, that it had the potential to burst and there was a very real possibility it would be a hard landing, we really didn't know. As a group we may have had our suspicions but until the last few months, a lot of smoke but very little fire. Now that the data, the mainstream media and the mainstream itself has reached the point of no return yeah, I'm now totally comfortable discussing the finer points of kitchen utensils.

Joe Schmoe,

When using a whetstone try using a "blade guide". These inexpensive plastic blade guides ensure that you're sharpening the implement at just the right angle plus they clean up with soap and water after use! After a pleasant evening preparing a "chef quality" meal they are STILL sharp enough to slash through the toughest steel belted realtor's tires! The perfect end to the perfect evening.

ps,

I finally realized you weren't joking about your knives.

I'm not sure if these are the ones you've mentioned but they look so pretty!

http://www.japanesechefsknife.com/HDSeries.html

Oh and when you get home after a little "carousing" your blade will still be sharp enough to cut even the most ripe tomatoes!

My post got moderated so I'll try again:

“Why not people?”

I was repeating an old saying, though I wouldn’t eat people for sanitary purposes. I might get a brain rotting prion.

re: knives and other stuff

I found this site. I’m guess a lot of you already know about it.

http://www.cookingforengineers.com/article.php?id=39

I think I’ve found the ultimate (non ceramic) knife, now I just need to figure out a way to pay for it. (hehe, Scott, criticize away!) Perhaps I should sell some eggs…

http://www.macknife.com/ultimate.html

Sorry about the triple post, Wordpress made me do it. :oops:

Should we have a knives thread?

No. I'm really appreciative about everyone sharing their knowledge. I just wanted to share what I've learnt. :)

How about using a Wakizashi as a chef knife? I doubles as a seppuku sword in case the food turns out to be horrible. :)

Peter P,

You mean we're not? Like I say, I'm cool with it. Now that total destruction of the residential housing market is all but assured, yeah we might as well talk about something!

okay then!

check out the damascus steel on these suckers

http://www.japanesechefsknife.com/KDSeries.html

Then we can talk about the sort of small arms we need to defend ourselves against the roaming and pillaging FBs...maybe trade some tips on Shaolin kung fu and jujitsu. How does that sound.

And finally, we can case all that shiny metal down with hi-fi system snobbery. I get first dibs on Bose put downs!

- case
+ chase

And finally, we can case all that shiny metal down with hi-fi system snobbery.

Huh?

astrid,

Well alright but I can't see getting my wife's permission to use them. How about running them through the dishwasher?

Peter P,

Sorry, just going a bit overboard. There's a definite correlation between knife snobbery/nerdism and other sorts of gizmoey snobbery/nerdism, especially for hi-fi systems. Bose is the hi-fi whipping boy for their high prices and mediocre products.

astrid Says:

> Actually, the availability of cheap second hand
> SUVs are a serious auto safety issue going
> forward. The young/inexperienced drivers had
> been largely locked out due to the high price
> of new SUVs, but now that the stock is getting
> old and cheap, we may soon see a lot of
> Suburbans in the hands 17 year old boys.

Young boys are less likely to race around in a big heavy slow truck than a fun to drive little fuel efficient car. Young drivers of big SUVs are also less likely to drive drunk since they can stretch out and sleep it off in the SUV after doing shots at a party...

There’s a definite correlation between knife snobbery/nerdism and other sorts of gizmoey snobbery/nerdism, especially for hi-fi systems.

I see. I do not know much about hi-fi systems.

Young boys are less likely to race around in a big heavy slow truck than a fun to drive little fuel efficient car. Young drivers of big SUVs are also less likely to drive drunk since they can stretch out and sleep it off in the SUV after doing shots at a party…

Young boys should not be allowed to drive unsupervised, period.

I still think that the excess energy of young people could be put into better uses. We also need to impose more discipline and structure on them.