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Bubble modeling?


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2006 May 2, 2:57pm   19,029 views  251 comments

by totoro   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Hello,

Not sure if this has been discussed here or not, but I recently came across the following report from HBSC Global Research. It’s a pretty comprehensive analysis of the US housing market based on a model called HomePulse, which they developed and have made publicly available. I've linked the spreadsheet below also. There is so much data, buttons and knobs to play with that I haven't been able to even scratch the surface on it. I think there are some sharp minds on this forum - it would be interesting to see some discussion of this work.

HBSC Report (PDF, large)

HomePulse model (Excel)

#housing

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199   Randy H   2006 May 3, 2:15pm  

Scott - i think that amount was the total bonus pool divided by # of employees. As it actually played out, a large % went to the partners, MDs, prop traders and other BSDs

Exactly… my post was a response to Randy’s “median vs average income” post… hence why I posted the average # for G.S… just reaffirming his post…

Exactly and exactly. I think the thrust of the FT article was that it's not just the very very very top 0.1% who skew things, but it is massive wage growth in the top 5%. Lots of 28 year olds earning $300K+ a year is "a skewing of things" in my book.

200   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 2:19pm  

Randy, I understand but do not sympathesize wth your indignation. Those 28 year olds who earn $300+K a year, they have different upbringings from their peers. Ability is very small determinant of one's earning potential. Someone would go so far as to say that upbringing (read, breeding) is everything.

201   OO   2006 May 3, 2:20pm  

I see the "magnetic field" getting very nagative for the IB guys whose salary seemingly has attracted a lot of unfriendly attention... Negative Chi is forming, fortune destiny turning...Darkness ahead...

202   Michael Holliday   2006 May 3, 2:46pm  

surfer-x Says:

In reply to: "College graduates from top schools can make 100K after finishing a full year of work i.e."

No, no they fucking don’t. I love these fucking asshats. Ok dipshit, what school is a “top” school and what fucking discipline makes that kind of cash 1 year out? Not a fucking one. Consider Cal and Stanford good schools? Know what a BS with honors and a MS from Stanford in Computer Science gets you at Oracle? 80 fucking K. Oh this is with multiple summer internships at Seibel. Go fuck yourself...

_____

Thanks for the vicarious catharsis! I feel the indignation.

Nobody's buying the propaganda any more...

203   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 2:54pm  

Guys, regarding IB jobs: you have to have certain personality, in addition to proper upbringing, in order to survive in the IB industry. You must have a cold, unsentimental mind. You must have an innate, strong desire to WIN. In grad school, I shared an office with a guy whose name has a III in it. He told me that he was a cold man. (He's a very decent man.) He did very, very well in the hedge-fund industry.

204   FormerAptBroker   2006 May 3, 2:57pm  

GentleCheetah Says:

> Many men were ignored by girls in their youth
> and try to avenge such a gross “injustice” by
> being successful and then display their success.

Almost all men want to be successful (even the good looking high school freshman who had sophomore and junior girls taking them home after school to have sex before their parents came home)...

> Many a man secretly wants to be ruled.
> That’s why they marry the women they marry.

Not many men want to be ruled (sure there are a few guys who pay women to tie them up and beat them, but there are probably more gay guys out there)...

> A satisfied man, one who every girl fancies,
> never feels the want to succeed, except for honor.

Most men want to succeed and win all the time (even in trivial things that don't involve honor)...

205   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 3:03pm  

FAB, I don't want to argue. We just presented different views. Note that you and I may have dfferent definition fo the word "success."

Man likes to win, that is for sure.

To "succeed," that is a quintessential trait of a striving middle class, for better or worse.

I don't think a king has a strong desire to "succeed."

206   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 3:08pm  

PS -

are you implying those who earn $120 k a year are not "wealthy"?

What planet are you from?

If the median household income in the Bay area is around $80,000, how do people earning $40,000 per year more than the median fall into a class of "frugal", non luxury living citizens.

I don't doubt that at Patrick.net, such people would be poorly paid members of one of the lower classes, but in most parts of America or the world, for that matter, earning $120 thousand per year would be considered "doing well".

Yeah, I want to earn $120,000 per year so I can spend $6000 per year on FOOD and $2400 per year on clothes, as per your example.

Right on, I'm livin' the good life now!! That sounds like a reciope for good times!

BTW, no offense, but your example illustrates how out of whack housing and even rental prices are when you consider it "frugal" or necessary to spend $5 dollars on shelter for every $1 spent on food.

OUCH!

207   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 3:14pm  

As an aside, I once lived in a district where I was in the bottom 5% of income earners.

I could have stayed there and sent my kids to one of the most desirable public high schools in the area (West Vancouver). There my regular kids could have mixed with a bunch of no clue kids driving BMWs and Mercedes and gone through a high school, where like it or not, they would have been judged because there old man wasn't a millionaire (yet).

There's something to be said for avoiding the "best public schools" in some areas.

208   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 3:16pm  

Also, their old man can't spell or rite gramaticl either.

209   OO   2006 May 3, 3:24pm  

tsusiat,

it is a good idea to avoid West Vancouver. A lot of Asian kids there are really really spoilt.

Most of these kids are left there by parents who are busy earning the last bucks in Hong Kong or China, so they overcompensate by buying their kid a Porsche or BMW when he turns 16. Then these kids spend most of the time karaoke bar hopping, busy learning different Chinese dialects from each other.

The situation here is quite different. Here the Asian parents are more upper middle class wage earners rather than businessmen. They are also much more educated, so they are heavily involved in their kids' education, unlike their Vancouver counterparts, who may be street smart enough to amass a fortune but not quite straightened out in their own personal values.

I frankly have no idea why West Van has a desirable public high school based on the horror stories I heard about the Asian parents there. Must be the white parents that are doing the heavylifting then.

210   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 3:24pm  

tsusiat,

When I was a kid, my family had to move. So I had to change from a good primary school to a bad one in a working-class neighborehood, for other schools closer to home were all full. (Yes, in China then there was an implicit class hierarchy.) I made many good friends there and I really enjoyed my five years at the school. I also learned a lot from them. These were real people. I consider them smarter and more real than the ones I met at later stage of my life. When I left Shanghai for US, it was my primary school friends who sent me away.

211   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 3:26pm  

Not to bug anyone in San Fran,

but I rent a 1300 sq ft townhouse, non-subsidized, for about $900 US per month in downtown Victoria BC.

We probably spend about $900 US a month on food, for an excellent 1 to 1 ratio.

Unfortunately, real estate here is almost as out of whack as in the Bay area, even without any "interest only" loans fueling the market.

Last month, the median price on a detached single family home in the Capital Regional area was around $440000 US. Meanwhile, the median family income in the area is only around $55000 US.

No googleaires around here, though I think maybe they are hiding...

212   OO   2006 May 3, 3:32pm  

PS' example is also not quite frugal by my standard.

rent: $ 1500 per month (2BR condo good enough in the Almaden school district, Leland HS is a very good public school)
utilities: $ 200 p.m. (no heating needed for winter, just put on more clothes)
two cars: $ 450 p.m. (Pump up at Costco can save a bit, Honda Civic is my car!)
food: $ 400 p.m. (cup noodle is good soul food)
clothes: $ 50 p.m. (why does one need to constantly buy new clothes? We stop growing after 18, right? Just watch the weight then no new clothes needed)
misc.: $ 500 p.m.

$3100 p.m., $37,200 per year. I think you can save quite a bit with such a small expenditure.

213   OO   2006 May 3, 3:48pm  

tsusiat,

there's a big gang problem up there in Vancouver, especially among the kids of the wealthy parents who are still scooping up the last bit of gold thousands of miles away.

A few months back, two Chinese kids got shot in the bar after getting into a fight with another Chinese kid. It stirs up a big emotional story in China because the the dead kids had two blog sites showing off their lifestyle to fellow Chinese across the ocean. They were driving drinking like mad, and their girlfriends were showing off their own lavish lifestyle on the internet as well, arousing lots of envy and jealousy of course.

So when the news broke out, the internet in China was filled with hoorays and schadenfreude chanting that corrupt parents eventually met their fate, deservingly.

I have seen with my own eyes the conspicuous consumption of the youngsters. Let me just put it this way, thou shalt not get in the way of other people's self-destructive lifestyle, they will eventually live a life they deserve.

214   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 3:55pm  

Owneroccupier,

I see the news out of Vancouver on a daily basis. Sad to say, you are pretty accurate as to your take on the situation there.

As to the situation in China, I have no idea, but your insight sounds pretty reasonable to me.

215   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 4:11pm  

I have to agree with PS that 120K/year in coastal US is an OK income, for a real household (with a wife and a husband). It's even worse for a household with kids.

It is only OK because one has to live a "respectable" life in a respectable community. That kind of "respect" costs money.

I've seen a family who made $80K (two teachers) in Orange County and sent their kids to top-rung Ivies. I know because ......

Everything is possible.

That's why I am often confused by this world. It's quite absurd, if you ask me.

Sometimes, I just want a world war that kills off 80% of the world's population (excluding moi).

216   OO   2006 May 3, 4:22pm  

ps,

I was half joking. Food is one area that I don't skimp on, since we are both health nuts.

Bay Area actually has a wide range of choices for all price points depending on what kind of service and goods one desires. I find the general price level to be very competitive, even compared to cities like Shanghai if you want the same quality. The myth of BA as a place of high cost of living is entirely skewed by housing cost alone.

217   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 4:24pm  

tsusiat,

You misunderstood PS. He makes much more than 120K/year. He was just using that number as an example.

218   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 4:55pm  

Also, education is over-rated. Yours truly stopped listening in class since the 2nd grade -- perhaps never listened in class -- and was frequently reprimanded, and a few times received physical punishement, as a result. Few people ever learn anthing of substance at school and in college. It's all about a diploma with a recognizable name stamped on it. But that name makes all the difference. So you want to send your kids to Harvard, Yale, Princeton, period.

There are two kinds of education: vocational and liberal. Most education today is of the former type. True liberal education should be given to children of means and prepare them to rule (more wisely).

Since education is by and large a sham, merit-based admission makes absolutely zero sense. A merit-based system only attracts certain type of people who are good at following an established path and are willing to twist their minds to conform to a pre-ordained pattern; in other words, slaves of certain variety. When a country starts to boast its broadbased, merit-based education system, you know it has reached its peak.

219   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 5:08pm  

Regarding education: The highly schooled Chinese was conquerred by illiterate Mongols and Manchurians. The same could probably be said of the Romans.

220   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 5:09pm  

PS-

Follow me closely,

the fact that you don't admit to knowing anyone who makes less than $100,000/yr in the Bay area indicates you are, by definition, no more in touch with the "reality" of the Bay area than I am.

If you weren't talking about your_current_situation, what were you talking about?

If you pulled the number out of a hat, why not pull out the median income and talk about that?

For every million dollars you tell me you make, I'll name you 3 countries I've visited.

For every graduate degree you tell me you've got, I'll tell you all about the years I spent smokin' doobies and playing music.

Now those were good times...

No, actually, why_don't_you_just_tell_me_what_your_situation_is_so_there_won't_be_any_misconceptions_about_the_relevance_of_your_observations!

221   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 5:12pm  

tsusiat,

You are demanding a very personal revelation from PS. I think it inappropriate for you to do so.

But I feel your angst.

222   Girgl   2006 May 3, 5:14pm  

ps wrote:
Assuming you live frugally in a 3br/2ba SFR in the MontaVista or Lynbrook high school districts in Cupertino:

rent: $ 2500 per month.
utilities: $ 300 p.m.
two cars: $ 500 p.m.
food: $ 500 p.m.
clothes: $ 200 p.m.
misc.: $ 500 p.m.

Please help me understand how you feed two adults and two high school kids with $500 per month. Every time I leave the grocery store with next to nothing, it's $50+.
I have heard of high school kids (at Lynbrook actually) with a daily lunch budget of $0.50. Since there's nothing to buy for $0.50, they go hungry every other day.

223   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 5:18pm  

GC,

I demand nothing, I'm just needling the impoverished hundredthousandaires at this blog who are very concerned that the wisdom of their decision to rent might be misconstrued as anything but "frugality", as opposed to, say, necessity...

Mind you, if PS is wealthy on an order of magnitude above say, $120,000 per year, it seems odd that he would choose that number to illustrate the possiblility of makin' a life in the bay area, if only one is frugal and parsimonious.

I think Hall and Oates had a song about being "Out of touch..." back in the 80s...

224   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:18pm  

Look at this South Bay Townhouse.

http://www.craigslist.org/sby/rfs/157081160.html

It is a "SHORT SALE"

I have not seen this before.

225   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 5:22pm  

Peter P

$640,000 -

and the fridge is NOT included?

WTF???

226   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 5:22pm  

Peter P

$640,000 -

and the fridge is NOT included?

WTF???

227   tsusiat   2006 May 3, 5:23pm  

Sorry for the double post.

Night all!

228   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:26pm  

Sorry for the double post.

No matter how many times you post you still cannot get that fridge for free! :)

229   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 5:27pm  

PS, agreed. I should've replaced word "education" with "schooling" in most places.

230   GallopingCheetah   2006 May 3, 5:53pm  

Did you guys take a look at Forbes' slideshow on Bilionaire Bachelors? (http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/2006/03/08/06billionaires_bachelors_slide.html?boxes=popslide&boxes=custom)

Is it just me, I thought the only attractive guys are the Saudi Prince (a bit old), the Lebanon guy (the coolest), and perhaps the German guy called Stefan. The North American guys are pretty, well, nerdy.

I'm not a gay.

231   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:55pm  

New thread: Duh!

232   tsusiat   2006 May 4, 12:42am  

PS-

so you need the last word do you?

What's the matter, you don't mind intimating you know all about family economics, pray tell, based on your "examples" you know less than you pretend.

Rinse, repeat.

My comment BTW was not directed at any earlier commentary between you and Astrid, nor does it need to be.

I don't bother reading every word of every thread here because, hey, I have other things to do also.

My comment was a very basic one, people who make $120,000 per year are wealthy by any stretch of the imagination.

Deal with that, if you can....

233   tsusiat   2006 May 4, 12:43am  

Also, my other basic point is that anyone who spends $30,000/yr on rent and $6,000/yr on food for a family of four needs to give his head a shake.

If necessary, I suggest moving somewhere a bit cheaper!

234   tsusiat   2006 May 4, 12:45am  

PS-

re cheaper rent,

Don't tell me that's impossible now, this blog is full of people quoting the soon to appear bounty due to overextended borrowers needing "income" for their "investment" properties.

Also, check out the graphic at the front of this site.

235   astrid   2006 May 4, 2:18am  

ps, Tsusiat, and Owneroccupier,

Sorry about being unclear in my wording. Reading your exchange made me feel like dead writer or Ben Bernanke! :) I think of 100-150K as upper middle class and 150K+ as wealthy. These are not strictly Bay Area measurements, but as I've mentioned before, I know very few people who are making $100K+ individually 3-5 years out of college.

My friends almost all went to "top" schools and they still budget for student loans. They'll be in a position to have kids in their early 30s, especially if the housing prices go down by 50%+ and their wages keep up with real inflation. But these are really pretty exceptional people, top 1-5% of the population.

I think there was a study out there that showed very few rich people consider themselves to be rich, even though most other people think they are. Detroit auto execs making $200K a year still think of themselves as middle class or upper middle class, because they live amongst higher ups making $500K a year, and so on. High achievers in BA think they're not making so much, but they don't remember the lawn guys or babysitters who come to their 1,500 sq ft PA POS to take care of their needs.

What about all the people working for $10/hr or less? Even in the BA, there are a lot more of those than people pulling $100K+. I don't think we can ignore them when looking at the whole picture.

I have a good friend who made $22K/yr gross who lived in BA for a year. And he was carrying college loans and bought a new Sentra. So it can be done, even here, if you're super frugal and single/not dating.

I also think the misc. would go a lot higher if you have 2.5 kids. The family health insurance costs and copays can really add up. Also, kids have a lot of costly school activities like school uniforms, etc. Brown bagging is a nice idea, but not really doable if both parents are working hard to just pull in that $100K+. Kids seem to magically quadruple all family activities - popcorn in movies, motels on road trips, and birthday parties.

College expenses are also going up very fast, and even if you shield all the savings in tax deferred accounts, @$120K, you'll still be responsible for the entire tuition for at least one kid, and a good chunk of any simultaneous collegiate.

Also, a family with kids is more economically fragile if something happens to one of the wage earners. They can't dramatically cut their costs because of the kids. I personally wouldn't feel comfortable raising kids unless I know I can still do a decent job if the family gross income dropped by half. (Doable! Insist my parents, if you ship them to China. As if I'd ever send my kids to a Chinese public school!) Once again, not ditching on kids, just being very conservative about costs and risks.

236   tsusiat   2006 May 4, 2:25am  

My own ’situation’ is not relevant, and it would be ridiculous to use that as a basis for where this discussion started out.

I have already disclosed the context of my observations - they are based on a sample that I am aware of. Take it for what it is worth.

I merely made a comment about your "budget".

Show me where it says I need to read an entire thread to make a comment about a "frugal" budget like yours.

LOL!

237   tsusiat   2006 May 4, 2:32am  

Astrid

my point is that, though Parick.net seems flooded with "elitists" who consider good money poor money, the reality is more than half the families in the Bay area get by on significantly less than what PS quoted.

So regardless of his financial situation, I merely called him out on the idiocy of his budget.

I didn't intend to start a long flame about how tough it is to survive on $120,000/year, but I have to say, the whole thing is pretty funny.

BTW - PS, where exactly does credit card debt fit into your "budget" - under "miscellaneous"?

238   tsusiat   2006 May 4, 2:39am  

PS-

Sir,

you are under the misapprehension that you control the rules of engagement.

I was commenting on your budget.

deal with it.

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