patrick.net

RayAmerica says

Every time you read a news account on housing, it’s more bad news:

LOL! thats because we had way way too much good news over a 10 year period.
Hang overs are a bitch.

Yep .. those housing prices sure "bottomed" out in 2009. The evidense keeps pouring in to suppot it:

http://centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?source=patrick.net&ID=17117

tatupu70 says

robertoaribas says

Housing is consumptive behavior, not productive behaviour,

One man’s consumption is another’s production. Not sure how you can separate the two…

I just ate an apple. Who needs the poop?

When I first commented in this thread, the house I bought September for 160K, was listed for 259K in February.

bubblesitter says

tatupu70 says

robertoaribas says

Housing is consumptive behavior, not productive behaviour,

One man’s consumption is another’s production. Not sure how you can separate the two…

I just ate an apple. Who needs the poop?

I know you're joking, but the production was in planting the tree, picking the apple, transporting it to your grocery store, etc. You eating an apple creates jobs for many...

I must have missed something; I thought the bottom was 2009??

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-prices-hit-postbust-lows-apf-3408768237.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

4 little factoids a certain little Duckie Dude refuses to consider:

http://www.gpb.org/news/2011/02/22/4-reasons-home-prices-are-likely-to-keep-falling?source=patrick.net

2021.

By next business cycle bottom it will crash even further and begin to match reality, unless government finds another creative way to keep it up. I do not believe it will level to reasonable until then.

i think 2011 will be the bottom, unless of course bernanke prints another 2 trillion.

realistically, the market was overproduced and oversold, and it will take time to work it out.

Don't you think that somebody who sais that real estate is flat, where it's actually down 33% is delusional?

dunnross says

If gold is not a currency, than why are all central banks holding tons of it, and accumulate more as we speak?

You would have to ask the central bankers, but I would guess it's because gold has served as an inflation hedge in the past. Regardless, it is certainly NOT a currency

dunnross says

Fiat money has no intrinsic value. Every fiat currency ever known to man, including $USD, has lost all of its buying power in 100 years or less. Gold has kept its value since the war in Babylon.

I thought we had been over this already. Every currency currently in use is a fiat currency. They all continue to have value. I know when I bought groceries, the cashier gladly took my $$ and gave me food in return. Did you not have a similar experience? Fiat currencies are the winners. Gold has failed as a currency.

tatupu70 says

dunnross says

If gold is not a currency, than why are all central banks holding tons of it, and accumulate more as we speak?

You would have to ask the central bankers, but I would guess it’s because gold has served as an inflation hedge in the past. Regardless, it is certainly NOT a currency
a href=”/?p=28625#comment-720404″>dunnross says

Fiat money has no intrinsic value. Every fiat currency ever known to man, including $USD, has lost all of its buying power in 100 years or less. Gold has kept its value since the war in Babylon.

I thought we had been over this already. Every currency currently in use is a fiat currency. They all continue to have value. I know when I bought groceries, the cashier gladly took my $$ and gave me food in return. Did you not have a similar experience? Fiat currencies are the winners. Gold has failed as a currency.

Yes, central bankers who create "fiat currencies" out of thin air, need a hedge against their own fiat currency debasement by buying and holding real currency (gold). So, central bankers obviously understand that gold is currency, but they need to feed people like tatapu70 the propaganda that gold is not currency, and "fiat currency", which is the funny money which they are creating is.

dunnross says

Yes, central bankers who create “fiat currencies” out of thin air, need a hedge against their own fiat currency debasement by buying and holding real currency (gold). So, central bankers obviously understand that gold is currency, but they need to feed people like tatapu70 the propaganda that gold is not currency, and “fiat currency”, which is the funny money which they are creating is.

You obviously don't understand what currency is. Do yourself a favor and look it up, then come back.

Here's a clue. Next time you go to Circle K to buy gas and a soda, try to pay with 3/100 of an ounce of gold and let me know how that goes.

I had an Eagle that said "50 dollars" on it. Legal tender, I think.

Sounds like currency to me.

I don't know about the Bay Area and coastal CA at large, but I do know that several towns in Marin County that I am interested in are already seeing prices below 2009 and will continue in that trend for a while I suspect... yes, there are exceptions, but that is what I am seeing...

house prices will normalize or bottom when the wage / house price ratio normalizes or reaches historic balances... don't think we're quite there yet and we were not yet there in 2009, either... most of the action since 2009 were transactions driven by pent up housing fear about having been left out the last time around.. that fear is still wide-spread throughout BA real estate circles when everyone who had not bought into the BS and mania from 2002 on thought they'd never own their own piece of the pie... I think that pent up fear is subsiding... clearly the notion that housing prices only go up is now a fallacy.. when people start to act more rationally, which will allow historic relationships and price drivers to come back, prices will retract accordingly...

sybrib says

I had an Eagle that said “50 dollars” on it. Legal tender, I think.
Sounds like currency to me.

It WAS legal tender. No longer...

Like I said--gold died as a currency. Fiat currency was the winner.

tatupu70 says

sybrib says

I had an Eagle that said “50 dollars” on it. Legal tender, I think.

Sounds like currency to me.

It WAS legal tender. No longer…
Like I said–gold died as a currency. Fiat currency was the winner.

"Authorized by the Bullion Coin Act of 1985, American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins quickly became one of the world's leading gold bullion investment coins. Produced from gold mined in the United States, American Eagles are imprinted with their gold content and legal tender "face" value. An American Eagle's value is based on the market price of its metal content, plus a small premium to cover coinage and distribution. "

"Ever since its discovery 5,000 years ago, gold has been treasured for its unmatched luster, beauty and intrinsic value. Today, gold continues to enjoy widespread appeal as an investment and storehouse of value. Gold is an internationally recognized monetary and financial asset held in reserve by major governments. It is so rare that all the gold ever mined could fit into a cube measuring just 20 yards on each side. Most importantly, gold can play a role in diversifying an investment portfolio, since it can move independently of stocks and bonds. What's more, gold is a tangible asset - one whose beauty and artistry you can literally hold in your hands. When purchased in the form of legal tender bullion coins, gold can be affordable, as well as easy to buy and store. Americans purchase more American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins than any other gold coin. Produced by the United States Mint, Department of the Treasury, these coins are available in four denominations. "

http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=american_eagle_gold

" * The American Gold Eagle is considered legal tender in the United States with a face value of $50 though the intrinsic value of its gold content is much higher."

http://goldsilver.com/buy-online/american-gold-eagles-1-oz/

Tatupu - you should be smacked for that one.

robertoaribas says

Lets price homes in terms of how many foot long subs at subway they cost…

With or without the chips/drink ?

joshuatrio says

Tatupu - you should be smacked for that one.

Consider me smacked. (ouch).

tatupu70 says

sybrib says

I had an Eagle that said “50 dollars” on it. Legal tender, I think.

Sounds like currency to me.

It WAS legal tender. No longer…
Like I said–gold died as a currency. Fiat currency was the winner.

Yes, it's not clear to everyone throughout the world that the $USD is the clear winner, especially since it already lost 97% of it's value since the formation of the federal reserve. I guess they don't have Circle K stores everywhere. In Vietnam, you won't be able to buy a house, unless you bring a 1kg gold bar with you. In India, you can buy pretty much everything with gold. Even in the US, some banks have started to accept gold as collateral.

Nomograph says

dunnross says

In gold oz (which is the only currency which the FED cannot print at whim), both national and CA coastal prices are now more than 33% below the 2009 price (see chart above). Anybody who sais that 2009 was the bottom is completely deranged or delusional or both of the above.

I nominate this for the “Stupidest said on Patrick.net” thread.

If you held gold instead of real estate, since 2009, you wouldn't consider that remark as stupid at all.

Nomograph says

dunnross says

If you held gold instead of real estate, since 2009, you wouldn’t consider that remark as stupid at all.

Yes I would.
Your claim that housing has crashed 33% since 2009 is one of the stupidest things I’ve heard here. How can you expect to be taken seriously if you make these kind of ridiculous statements?

It seems stupid to you, because you are not even smart enough to look at the chart, and calculate it yourself. In 2009 an average house in the US cost 300 gold oz's. Currently it costs 199 gold oz.
(300-199)/300 = 33.66%

Nomograph says

dunnross says

If you held gold instead of real estate, since 2009, you wouldn’t consider that remark as stupid at all.

Yes I would.
Your claim that housing has crashed 33% since 2009 is one of the stupidest things I’ve heard here. How can you expect to be taken seriously if you make these kind of ridiculous statements?

In fact, since the peak of the bubble, an average house in US has already lost 76% of it's value in gold oz.
(830-199)/830 = 76.02%

joshuatrio says

The American Gold Eagle is considered legal tender in the United States with a face value of $50 though the intrinsic value of its gold content is much higher.”
http://goldsilver.com/buy-

If you wanna play bullion games, the silver Eagles and Maple Leafs are also Legal Tender, five dollars face (US and Canadian, respectively). Not so very long ago, when those issues could be bought in bulk for about 2X face, I thought it was a sane way to have bullion, because the face value set a floor even if the bullion value went below $5. Problem is the "energy density" for those silver bullion is kinda low and the darn things wind up taking up too much space.

dunnross says

Nomograph says

dunnross says

If you held gold instead of real estate, since 2009, you wouldn’t consider that remark as stupid at all.

Yes I would.

Your claim that housing has crashed 33% since 2009 is one of the stupidest things I’ve heard here. How can you expect to be taken seriously if you make these kind of ridiculous statements?

It seems stupid to you, because you are not even smart enough to look at the chart, and calculate it yourself. In 2009 an average house in the US cost 300 gold oz’s. Currently it costs 199 gold oz.

(300-199)/300 = 33.66%

Well I was looking at it more in terms of how many units of CSU/UC "tuition" a bullion stash could buy, for my kids. Looks like the purchasing power of bullion is not keeping up with it. Fringe benefits for the Nomographs of the World are expensive, because they know that they can either have the taxpayers go further into debt to pay for it (with public debt), or else the students (with student loans).

sybrib says

dunnross says

Nomograph says

dunnross says

If you held gold instead of real estate, since 2009, you wouldn’t consider that remark as stupid at all.

Yes I would.
Your claim that housing has crashed 33% since 2009 is one of the stupidest things I’ve heard here. How can you expect to be taken seriously if you make these kind of ridiculous statements?

It seems stupid to you, because you are not even smart enough to look at the chart, and calculate it yourself. In 2009 an average house in the US cost 300 gold oz’s. Currently it costs 199 gold oz.
(300-199)/300 = 33.66%

Well I was looking at it more in terms of how many units of CSU/UC “tuition” my ounces would pay, for my kids. Looks like the purchasing power of bullion is not keeping up with it. Fringe benefits for the Nomographs of the World are expensive.

The silver bullion definitely more than keeps up, even with tuition. House prices are down 75% since 2009, in terms of the "poor man's gold".

Except you were already calling bottom in 2008.

since most of today's "sellers" are Banks in the land of Far-Far-Away, there is no real "seller" concern over the selling price. All, as in 100%, completo, ALL of the sales prices being used to sell REOs is drempt up by REpukes in the area of the REO. And they(REpukes) all, as in 100%, completo, ALL engage in PRICE-FIXING through direct colusion and a fine little ditty called "BeePeeOh" BPO ... Broker Price Opinion ... that BPO is how the SELLER (bank) gets their ASKING PRICE (Local RE wet dream amount) in the first place ..... so when you make an offer that is called "low ball" by the same pukes that fix the price, tell them to stuff it and submit it of you will find another leach that will. The "seller" has no idea what the market is here, or even in Far-Far-Away, so they could give a crap what you offer ... the only crabby patty in the pile is the REpuke.

That "housing bottomed in 2009" is looking more and more like a dark hole that a certain Duck fell into and can't find his way out.

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/new-home-sales-down-80-from-peak-down-18.6-last-year-down-11.1-last-month/?source=patrick.net#blogtitle

investing_reality says

Median price of new homes sold in USA:
- in January 1997 was $145,000
- in January 2011 was $230,600

$145,000 x 7.82% = $11,339
$230,600 x 4.75% = $10,953

Sorry, Patrick. That was needlessly harsh. I actually love the website. I just don't like the forum software as much as what you had before. There's the limitations of the search function, which is really inconvenient. Other than that, it's just klunky and weird compared to the other format. The first post of a thread is visually odd. The line that says how many comments there are is bolded and in a larger font than the actual first post, drawing the eye away from the post and making it look like the first post isn't even part of the thread. And then I don't see any way to quote the first post other than typing in the code manually. I don't know why there's a link to the comments when they're right there under the first post. All it does is move you down a few lines on the page. It seems more like a format for a news article as opposed to a forum thread. And then adding images is a bit klunky as well. Seems like you have to save the image to your hard drive and then upload it to the website. Other forum software lets you just insert the image URL and show it directly.

I'm sure none of that is your fault, and it's nothing insurmountable (except the search function); it's just not as visually appealing or user friendly as the old format.

Also, everything that was posted on the old forum seems to be lost. It would be fun to go back and see what people were saying in 2007-2008, but those posts don't seem to exist anymore. You can search back that far, but there isn't much there. I remember there being a lot more going on in the forum at that time.

zzyzzx says

Exactly where is this search feature?

Top of every page. The dropdown lets you search prices, rents, or this forum. Pick the “Search Forum” option.

I just found it. That's a pretty non-intuitive place to put it. I mean, I've never seen a search feature placed on a fourm like that!

Thanks for the suggestions! I started a new thread about stuff to fix on the forum, here:

http://patrick.net/?p=637969

This thread is just getting way too long. I can feel the database sweating every time I load this thread.

ChrisLA says

Thats one of the reasons I think housing will stay ballooned for a several more years. Government is trying to prolong the process of the crash, and they are doing so. Just it is still going against the free market forces making it a slow fall.

Good point Chris. All this artificial pumping and re-pumping of the bubble is only prolonging the inevitable. Even with all their forced manipulations and maneuverings, foreclosures continue to swamp the market in record numbers.

Home prices are in a time machine going backwards at break neck speeds .... all the way to the 1890's! Someone, quick, turn the dial back to Duck Time .... 2009!!

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2011/0303/Home-prices-falling-to-level-of-1890s?source=patrick.net#mainColumn

RayAmerica says

Home prices are in a time machine going backwards at break neck speeds …. all the way to the 1890’s! Someone, quick, turn the dial back to Duck Time …. 2009!!

Yep! the vested interest certainly want price to stay flat...

"Further, while nominally (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) home prices may have gone a long way into correction territory, in real terms (i.e. inflation adjusted), national home prices are still significantly elevated (possibly by as much as 15%-20%) above long-run norms."

"This paint’s a pretty clear picture… the national home price decline has further to run, possibly as much as 15%-20%, before real prices reach the long-run trend and a level more in-line with fundamentals."

It's an amazing thing, considering most ducks simply quack and quack. Our Duck can quack out of both sides of his quacker.

More troubled waters on Duck Pond:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Underwater-mortgages-rise-as-apf-1329138840.html?source=patrick.net#y-article-hd

How about three things at once?

See what I mean about this duck paddling in different directions? I'm feeling vertigo and this duck is the cause of it.