patrick.net

See what I mean about this duck paddling in different directions? I'm feeling vertigo and this duck is the cause of it.

thomas.wong1986 says

RayAmerica says

Home prices are in a time machine going backwards at break neck speeds …. all the way to the 1890’s! Someone, quick, turn the dial back to Duck Time …. 2009!!

Yep! the vested interest certainly want price to stay flat…
“Further, while nominally (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) home prices may have gone a long way into correction territory, in real terms (i.e. inflation adjusted), national home prices are still significantly elevated (possibly by as much as 15%-20%) above long-run norms.”
“This paint’s a pretty clear picture… the national home price decline has further to run, possibly as much as 15%-20%, before real prices reach the long-run trend and a level more in-line with fundamentals.”

That's real home prices so higher inflation could take us back to the trend without prices actually falling.

No time soon. See BofA news headline today to create another bureaucratic round file for mortgages. The signers won't have to pay and don't have to pay. So. Their cost is heading towards zero. Are they going to move and buy your asset. No! So, huge market forces pushing housing down. Simply huge. Add in money printing driving inflation and even huge, huge. Oh well. bearmarket was optimistic. In fact, people are still buying houses now. Not the symptom of a bottoming market!!!! When nobody wants to hear the word "house" or "for sale" then you'll be near the bottom (according to Technical Analysis of Stock Trends' notes on how to detect a bottom).

E.g. when this list dries up and nobody comes here any more, then you'll know housing is bottoming!!!

P.S. Of course new houses will continue to sell. Every market consists of smaller markets all the way to the markets of one. Obviously people who can afford it will buy new houses and, duckman be happy, houses in special places like SF. :-) But the 50% in the middle of the market will buy cheaper and cheaper in inflation adjusted terms. Houses will lose value but just not as fast as other holdings might. In the high inflation world our money printers created, loss is all relative.

toothfairy says

so higher inflation could take us back to the trend

Yes, everyone is gonna get a 25% raise in salary/wages because of inflation.

thomas.wong1986 says

toothfairy says

so higher inflation could take us back to the trend

Yes, everyone is gonna get a 25% raise in salary/wages because of inflation.

Please tell my employer!

thomas.wong1986 says

toothfairy says

so higher inflation could take us back to the trend

Yes, everyone is gonna get a 25% raise in salary/wages because of inflation.

I'm just pointing out what it means when "real" housing prices are falling.
So if there's no inflation then prices will fall another 15%-20%

(That's usually not how it works thanks to government attempts to smooth out the cycle).

sorry if it's not what you want to hear but that's just how it goes.

game--

You realize that when someone says they expect the market to be "flat", that doesn't mean that median price or Case Shiller price will remain EXACTLY the same for 5 years, right? There will obviously be some up and some down during that time period.....

toothfairy says

thomas.wong1986 says

toothfairy says

so higher inflation could take us back to the trend

Yes, everyone is gonna get a 25% raise in salary/wages because of inflation.

I’m just pointing out what it means when “real” housing prices are falling.

So if there’s no inflation then prices will fall another 15%-20%
(That’s usually not how it works thanks to government attempts to smooth out the cycle).
sorry if it’s not what you want to hear but that’s just how it goes.

Forces of nature applies to economics as well. So no matter what government attempts, prices will go down. Debt reduction has to happen, no matter what!

This is a dumb question. No one knows where the bottom is and no one will know the answer to this until it has already happened.

toothfairy says

So if there’s no inflation then prices will fall another 15%-20%

Gasoline cost to jump $700 for average household
By Tom Doggett – Wed Mar 9, 4:18 pm ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) –

"...The average U.S. household will spend about $700 more for gasoline in 2011 than it spent last year, bringing total motor fuel expenses up 28 percent to $3,235, based on an annual pump price of $3.61 a gallon."

The way I see it, dunno about "inflation" but we do have rising prices for some things, which means less money for other things. Like housing costs.

lurking says

This is a dumb question. No one knows where the bottom is and no one will know the answer to this until it has already happened.

Yes you can know the bottom if you wanna. I don't know what other people feel about this but start the price of a CA home from 1995 and keep adding average inflation(typical income increase of a person per year,IMO) to it up to today. Is it where the prices are now? No where close that inflation adjusted numbers in most parts of BA,Orange county and other so called fortress area. Once the income level starts supporting the home prices and banks feel comfortable giving loan to average person with good credit, that's where the bottom is....of course one can hide the reality behind the recent CS indices.

tatupu70 says

game–
You realize that when someone says they expect the market to be “flat”, that doesn’t mean that median price or Case Shiller price will remain EXACTLY the same for 5 years, right? There will obviously be some up and some down during that time period…..

You realize that when someone starts a whole thread based on the premise that prices are going to go UP, and then later says prices will stay flat, that it is a contradiction, right?

lurking says

This is a dumb question. No one knows where the bottom is and no one will know the answer to this until it has already happened.

The bottom, the the fall in the stock market ?

Fundementals! when your paying cash for highly liquid assets of your target investment.

Cash for Cash!

Housing ?

Long term trend line... updated for Q4 2010...

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html

Stockton looks like a buy, finally.

Just look at the prior decades 80s-90s... and the rest will follow.

FHFA graph do you even know what you're looking at?

it only counts loans backed by Fannie and Freddie. Which is fine for low
end Stockton but San Jose especially since
in 2008 they raised conforming loan limit it now includes higher priced
properties. So the numbers are skewed at best.

When this thread has been silent for a month! :-)

tatupu70 says

Los Angeles Renter says

I call bullshit on this statement…. Interest rates have fallen a full percent! That and the huge stock market rally from 6000 have stalled a drop in housing. People went from losing half their invested wealth to gaining it all back again in the past few years. (My stock portfolio is UP since 2008 crash). They also can afford to buy about $30,000-$60,000 more house with interest rates at 4%. Yet home prices didn’t rise by that same variable… So someone that waited until now to buy were able to afford more HOME than the person who tried to buy a home in early 2009 at higher interest rates. I don’t know how you don’t call that effectively a drop in price. (If you were a minority all-cash buyer in 2009 maybe you got a better deal.. but that’s a fraction of the home buying population.)

tatupu70 says:
That is the dumbest post I’ve seen in a while. You don’t call it a drop in price because prices didn’t drop.

Hey Tat,
My statement makes perfect sense... Home prices for average first time home-buyers did fall if the monthly payment for those average americans fell! It's pretty simple...If you're rent drops from $1800 to $1600 a month... Then your rent dropped in price. The monthly payment is primarily what people calculate when deciding on affordability.

THE COST OF BUYING A HOME ON A MONTH to MONTH basis dropped between 2009 and 2010 as interest rates dropped to near 4% from 5%.

I don't know how you don't understand this translates to a drop in home prices for those who sign up for fixed rate mortgages in at 4% in 2010.. vs. those that bought at 5% in 2009? This is what stalled the drop in housing. Now that interest rates are rising again we shall see what the market can really handle....

Should be an interesting summer buying season this 2011.... If interest rates hold steady at 5%-ish all summer... I"m predicting a pretty brisk market for Los Angeles area. If we climb to 6% I'm seeing up-front demand as rates are rising.. Then an avalanche of cancelled loans and hard stall out as rates settle around 6%.

People are STILL maxing themselves out to afford in the Los Angeles area....

toothfairy says

FHFA graph do you even know what you’re looking at?
it only counts loans backed by Fannie and Freddie. Which is fine for low

end Stockton but San Jose especially since

in 2008 they raised conforming loan limit it now includes higher priced

properties. So the numbers are skewed at best.

So Stockton isn't a buy?

Los Angeles Renter says

I don’t know how you don’t understand this translates to a drop in home prices for those who sign up for fixed rate mortgages in at 4% in 2010.. vs. those that bought at 5% in 2009? This is what stalled the drop in housing. Now that interest rates are rising again we shall see what the market can really handle….

I guess I'm just old school. A drop in home prices is when the price of homes goes down.

Stockton is not a buy for me because there's nothing there. You can find good deals even in San Jose
it just takes a little more work.

i wouldn't base my buying decision on that chart

The news keeps pouring in on housing, and it keeps going from bad to worse. The "bottom of 2009" is looking more and more like an old Twilight Zone episode.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/five-years-of-housing-supply-and-5-or-6.html?source=patrick.net

gameisrigged says

What Gore said is true. The right-wingers claimed he said he “invented” the internet, which is false, and is something that Gore never said.

Example how sound bites dont work.

"Invent" or "Create" which is interchangable was a poor choice of words.
Had he stated.. "I took the initiative in creating 'legal framwork in Congress' regarding Internet" would not have been a big issue. But he overstated his contribution. Anyway the question was regarding his Demo Opponent Bill Bradly.

thomas.wong1986 says

gameisrigged says

What Gore said is true. The right-wingers claimed he said he “invented” the internet, which is false, and is something that Gore never said.

Example how sound bites dont work.
“Invent” or “Create” which is interchangable was a poor choice of words.

Had he stated.. “I took the initiative in creating ‘legal framwork in Congress’ regarding Internet” would not have been a big issue. But he overstated his contribution. Anyway the question was regarding his Demo Opponent Bill Bradly.

I think that's splitting hairs. It's obvious he wasn't claiming to have created the technology; he was claiming to have taken the initiative in allowing the internet to be created. The crux of the matter isn't whether there's a difference between 'invent' and 'create', it's the difference between "I took the initiative in creating" and "I created". Those aren't the same thing. I suppose he could have used more passive wording such as "I took the initiative in the internet being created", but what do you want? It was an interview, so he had to come up with something off-the-cuff (which he is much, much better at than George W. Bush, by the way).

I mean, if I said, "Roosevelt took the initiative in building an atomic bomb", wouldn't it be fairly obvious that he didn't actually INVENT the atomic bomb, but rather put things politically in motion that resulted in it happening?

I wonder what impact the collapse of the first time home buyer market will have on home prices? Maybe it's time for Obama to enact another "1st. Time Home Buyer Stimulus" con? The first two programs were abysmal failures, maybe the third one will be the charm? What do you think Duckie Dude?

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/03/07/report-first-time-buyers-fade-from-market/?source=patrick.net#blognav_next

RayAmerica says

I wonder what impact the collapse of the first time home buyer market will have on home prices? Maybe it’s time for Obama to enact another “1st. Time Home Buyer Stimulus” con? The first two programs were abysmal failures, maybe the third one will be the charm? What do you think Duckie Dude?
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/03/07/report-first-time-buyers-fade-from-market/?source=patrick.net#blognav_next

Nah! Remember he said "money to buy the homes is already in the system","middle class does not matter" ? So investors will keep the system running without any expectations of decent return. :)

Very good article on the "Double Dip in Housing." Take particular notice of the photo of the Polar Bear on his back. It contains a message for our friend the Duck.

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/as-house-prices-double-dip-pundits-debate-how-low-it-will-go/?source=patrick.net#blogtitle

i noticed bulls on other RE forums are posting less or gone entirely.

they were around for years and poof, suddenly gone.

MyPunanyIsBiggerThanYourPunany says

i noticed bulls on other RE forums are posting less or gone entirely.
they were around for years and poof, suddenly gone.

That's because the bulls have all bought houses and have moved on to bigger and better...so a once a month read here is all that is interesting.

SubOink says

MyPunanyIsBiggerThanYourPunany says

i noticed bulls on other RE forums are posting less or gone entirely.

they were around for years and poof, suddenly gone.

That’s because the bulls have all bought houses and have moved on to bigger and better…so a once a month read here is all that is interesting.

no.

they had already owned houses when they joined the forums so that's not it; and they were around for years regularly posting about how housing was a great investment.

i suspect, instead, even they started to realize housing isn't the amazing investment they were bragging about.

MyPunanyIsBiggerThanYourPunany says

i suspect, instead, even they started to realize housing isn’t the amazing investment they were bragging about.

Agreed. Hard to keep claiming housing prices are going up or that the bottom was two years ago when every month is a new post-bubble low.

Maybe they aren't posting these days because they sink every penny in their bloated, underwater mortgages and can't afford an Internet connection:)

klarek says

Hard to keep claiming housing prices are going up or that the bottom was two years ago when every month is a new post-bubble low.

Realestate will recover as soon as the jobs return and excess inventory including shadow inventory is exhausted. My guess is 2013 to 2014 we will see small appreciation.

Krazzykelly says

will recover as soon as the jobs return

Nada. Jobs with pay that supports the bubble prices and even that is not enough, we need to see return of some kinda exotic loans, of course backed by tax payers.

Krazzykelly says

Realestate will recover as soon as the jobs return

This is the mistake the Obama economic-political team made in early 2010, that the jobs "would return" like the butterflies of Monterey.

They were even seeing the census-driven hiring as a forward indicator of job recovery. Idiots.

The economy of 2006-2007 was receiving TWO TRILLION of private debt injection EACH year.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=CZ

Notionally, that's supporting FORTY MILLION $50,000/y McJobs.

So yeah, dump $160B of new credit a month into the private economy and we'll see some broad consumer demand and hiring return.

Otherwise, we're going to slip into cross-default hell, right where we were in late 2008 and early 2009.

ChrisLA says

you are right, exotic loans won’t exist unless taxpayers are on the hook for them.

ChrisLA,

You do realize that no option-ARMs or subprime loans with 2 year teaser rates had taxpayer backing right?

Do you care at all about reality?

thomas.wong1986 says

Or when people learn how to make a deal. Ever watch “Pawn Stars” on history channel. Some guy waltz into a pawn store and thinks he can get $10K for some item. The owner laughs and says “not gonna happen, but I will give you $$2K for it”.

http://www.history.com/shows/pawn-stars/videos/no-stolen-goods#the-art-of-the-deal

Hey Thomas -- love Pawn Stars!

Have you ever seen "real estate intervention"? Basically the show is premised on the idea that sellers are priced wayyyy too high...and the intervention guy (Mike Aubrey) has to convince them (by showing comps, local prices, etc.) to drop their prices. He can be pretty harsh. :) Really a great show on seller psychology:

http://www.hgtv.com/real-estate-intervention/show/index.html

Usually I hate hgtv shows b/c they seem to be in bed with realty industry, but this one is great...

That is a good show, probably the only one on that dumb channel that I enjoy. It is fun to watch people wake up from their delusional fantasies, and hear the sort of bizarre shit they use to form their mentality (this house/street/town is special, etc). I also like it cuz it is in my area, and there are TONS of ppl here who think it is still 2006.

It appears to me that:

1. Most/All of 'Flyover' is at 1990's prices. AZ,NV, stockton, palmdale, etc.

2. Coastal CA is at 2000 or 2003 prices depending upon distance from jobs and how ghetto that area is.

3. THEREFORE it appears Coastal CA may in fact be following the lead o flyover down.

We are possibly headed for 1996 prices 5 years from now. It takes forever because the Feds have added 3-5 years to drag out the crash with HAMP,TARP, Loan Mods, cash for clunkers, cash for homes, etc and on an on.

The broke ass/underemployed squatters will eventually move to Vegas or Phoenix for the cheap rent. They won't be replaced by immigrants due to no jobs here. Also elderly cashing out is a LONG term drag.

I have read a few books that I tend to agree with (on a general level) and they are 'The Devil Takes the Hind Most', 'The Great Depression Ahead', and another that was about the stock market and that one escapes me right now. I think the economic chaos hasn't even begun yet. The following needs to occur before the housing market will stabilize...much less appreciate for any extended duration (a two-year of appreciation at minimum):
- Unemployment must decrease to below ~5%
- The many millions of bad home loans must be resolved
- Government entities (cities, municipalities, etc) need to go belly-up and re-establish (i.e. City of Bell, Compton, and maaaaaany others I'll bet).

My guess is we won't see stability til 2017. Really, my guess is the US housing market will become much like so many other developed countries. The majority of the middle class will need to resort to living with family and eventually inheriting a house because they will not have the means to buy on their own. I am a Realtor and the last three buyers have had to get (significant) help from family to buy a home here (in Southern California).