patrick.net

HARM,

I think you're conflating a bit. "Levelling the playing field," particularly anti- corruption and anti- monopoly safeguards does not equal doling out the same monies and resources to all schools, no matter how bad they are or whether or not their students have a desire or aptitude for all the same intellectual, career, social pursuits. Nor does it mean recognizing that intelligence, athletic ability, social skills, etc are the same in every individual. Not only is the basic concept wrong, but every attempt to legislate this concept into the schools has been a failure, as far as I know.

DinOR,

Do you drink after the closing bell every day? Nice ritual, I must say!

skibum,

Nah, I wish. Just on Fridays! TGIF? Mondays are tough enough as is. Personally I don't see how all those east coast hard asses drink every Sunday too? Hey, you guys are in your 40's! When do you slow down? My Doctor said I have the liver of a teen ager, but quickly added, "don't let that give you any ideas".

must respectfully disagree. You appear to be confusing “levelling the playing field” (i.e., providing equal OPPORTUNITY) with “making everyone equal” (i.e., Communism/Socialism). The former to me is entirely sensible, and should be the general aim of social policy for all democratic civil societies, while the latter is a thoroughly discredited political/economic system.

But that would assume that everyone deserves the same opportunity.

Your proposal is sensible but we need to be very careful about the side effects.

DinOR,
Speaking of the market, the runup over the last 3 days - the WSJ suggests short sellers did this (in part) - do you agree?

WRT schools, doling, etc.

This looks like one of those fun areas where theory disagrees with practice. (Best way to spot an idealist/extremist: someone who, when theory and practice don't jive, steadfastly maintains the correctness of theory.)

This looks just like welfare (and any aid system, for that matter). If it is possible to game the system, it will happen. It is therefore critical to determine the extent of the gaming, and reduce it to below a certain level. Doling out equal resources [for schools] (where 'equal' is based on purchasing power, where relevant) seems a good basic start, but I assume from the comments of others that it had some significant problems. Setting a minimum level, with significant performance-based increases may work best; most of the arguments against "pay based on performance" only hold water when schools can be underfunded, which can effectively prevent significant improvement.

(I know that some teachers will teach effectively at almost any level of resources, but referring back to my theory/practice idea, I don't think we are lucky enough to have sufficient teachers of that quality.)

skibum,

Yeah, there probably was a lot of "short covering" but this is the Summer of IT so I think someone will have to make a pretty strong case for me to turn bullish (short term). Today also happened to be "triple witching" so it just felt like the market was sort of holding it's collective breath.

SQT,

Ah yes, back in the day. Back when "don't ask, don't tell" meant the use of controlled substances! Even in late 70's early 80's they had kind of a "drug amnesty" program where if you turned yourself in it was the equivelant of an overdue book at the base library. I am just old enough to have remembered the F-4, living proof that with enough horsepower, even a brick will fly! They may not have been as sophisticated as the hardware they fly today but you could shoot 'em full holes and they usually came back.

I think you’re conflating a bit. “Levelling the playing field,” particularly anti- corruption and anti- monopoly safeguards does not equal doling out the same monies and resources to all schools, no matter how bad they are or whether or not their students have a desire or aptitude for all the same intellectual, career, social pursuits. Nor does it mean recognizing that intelligence, athletic ability, social skills, etc are the same in every individual. Not only is the basic concept wrong, but every attempt to legislate this concept into the schools has been a failure, as far as I know.

@Skibum,

I was responding to Peter P's rather sweeping generalizations about being against ANY form of "levelling the playing field", not specifically to the public education discussion which preceded it. I generally agree with the criticisms above from Robert & others about how Prop. 13 and centralized state control of education money vs. local control has contributed to the dramatic decline in quality of public education (plus, I would also add massive illegal immigration as well). I am also not a supporter of just blindly throwing more money after bad (failing schools) while starving the good ones. There needs to be some analysis of why certain schools are failing or succeeding before more money is wasted.

Yes, everyone has differing levels of innate intelligence/abilities, and this is true across all economic and social strata. And I don't refute that once you're an adult, you're pretty much on your own. I have little sympathy for the able-bodied who ignore all opportunities presented to them, refuse to work and prefer to claim permanent "victimhood' status in order to live off the earnings of others. But to say that some people --particularly children-- should simply be "abandoned" by society (because they are born poor and helping them might be costly) just struck me as a tad mean spirited. Perhaps that's not what he meant, but that's how it sounded to me.

But that would assume that everyone deserves the same opportunity.

But, Peter, what's wrong with that?

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness."

--Declaration of Independence, 1776

Your proposal is sensible but we need to be very careful about the side effects.

I agree. Moral hazards/unintended consequences are the bane of all forms of social engineering and regulation.

HARM,
Peter P mean spirited? I doubt it. Wouldn't that be really bad karma?

HARM Says:

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.”

Most historians agree that the founding fathers assumed at the time that "all men" meant all white, land-owning men.

SQT,

Eerie indeed. Must say though I never got to ride in one. Tagged along with a lot of helicopter and cargo plane crews and that was wild enough for me. I was from the post Nam era so I never got the "thrill" of having someone trying to shoot me.

@Jon, de nada ;-)

Jon,
I definitely agree with the microwave -> fat kids comment. Microwaveable foods are also loaded with trans-fats. Fat kids with atherosclerosis. Yikes.

My brother taught middle-school for about seven years, switched careers. In his opinion, the Administration was too demanding and the curriculum was being changed at the whims of voters. Voter sentiment and special interests would result in curriculum changes every few months. Rather than leave the schools to do their thing and actually deal with the challenges, they would be forced to start over every few months because someone was telling them, “This is what’s important, now, forget about three months ago.” He finally threw his hands up. His curriculum was force-changed so often that he had to constantly re-write his Course Plans and was working tons of overtime to keep up. There are too many chefs in the kitchen.

Self-Appointed saviors were coming out of the woodwork exclaiming “I have the holy and sacred knowledge of how to run a school. Stop what you’re doing and do what I tell you to do.” Then the false jesus would hit the reality wall and fade from view. Then the next savior appears.

As a former public school teacher (spent most of my time teaching 9-12), I can COMPLETELY relate. By the time you are done re-designing your entire curriculum around new-newer-newest math, or "world history according to Ward Churchill", then assimilating the new rules for automatic promotion, because failing kids "hurts their self-esteem", you get hit with No Child Left Behind or How to teach inner-city kids using ebonics, because proper English is "racist".

SP,

Fascinating link.

I agree completely that the Fed's/Treasury's goals of controlling inflation and maintaining US productivity are in large part dependent on a strong USD. I'm sure many of the more economically minded folks here can talk to this better, but it appears to me that the whining from investors, the NAR, etc. are completely narrow-minded and miss the boat. The Fed has bigger fish to fry than to worry that David Learah is crying about rising interest rates hurting "sensitive" markets.

I do disagree with the conclusion that Paulson's big issue coming up will be explaining the importance of maintaining the USD standard to the American public, The American public does not understand or care about this "abstract" concept.

On the topic of inventories, here is Reality Times:

Just like other surrounding cities, even Pleasanton is experiencing an explosion of new listings, compared to April and May ...
... Between $500,000-999,000 (none under $500,000 listed), there are 317 (compared to 105 in May) active single family homes on the market in Pleasanton, 143 are pending. Only 121 homes sold since January 1, 2006.

Emphasis mine.

If in 5 months, 121 houses got sold, and there 317 houses listed, do we have more than 12 months of inventory ? I don't know what 143 pending means.

SP, great article indeed.

I don’t know what 143 pending means.

Pending means not active. Some may be closed as sales. Some may fall though.

To BA Or Not To BA Says:

On the topic of inventories, here is Reality Times:

Reality Times, or is it UNReality Times? Funny slip up!

I assume pending means under contract, not yet closed.

I didn't read this Realty Times article you refer to, but what's even more interesting is this. I just did a quick MLS search for Pleasanton, all homes over $1M (don't know why they excluded this price range), and it's 85 active listings with NO pendings. Just like I've seen on the Peninsula, transactions in the high end of prices is dead. Amazing.

Pending means not active. Some may be closed as sales. Some may fall though.

Thanks. So it is neither part of the active nor part of the sold. Even all of the 144 close today, we still have more than 6 months of inventory in Pleasanton.

Not bad. Not bad at all.

- is
+ are

He caught my eye mainly because he was one of the few who published critiques of AGreenspan when everyone else was swooning at AG’s feet.

Sir Alan Greenspan?

more democrats are going to be in financial ruins than republicans.

How so?

Lettuce Picker is probably right. Blue states happen to be where most of the overvaluation of RE, and therefore much of the crazy loan practices, exist.

Lettuce Picker is probably right. Blue states happen to be where most of the overvaluation of RE, and therefore much of the crazy loan practices, exist.

Reasonable. Now, what if mortgage interest deduction is changed to a modest tax credit... :twisted:

Reasonable. Now, what if mortgage interest deduction is changed to a modest tax credit…

Yes, that would be evil for Blue Staters, wouldn't it? The severity of its effect would all depend on how modest a tax credit it becomes. Who knows if this will ever happen in this political climate, though.

The cynical view would be for the Democrats to actually engineer hardship for the poor/black/hisp./younger/etc. just to increase disenchantment with the incumbents.

The problems with this scenario are (1) Democrats are not organized to ever pull this off (2) those running the party are too stupid to come up with this idea, and (3) those demographic groups don't vote anyway.

The severity of its effect would all depend on how modest a tax credit it becomes.

If they cap the amount at the national median price level, many CA homeowners will be very unhappy.

The Home Mortgage Interest Deduction is already capped by the Alternative Minimum Tax. Those sneaky Demicans will stop at nothing to steal everything and debase what they cannot steal.

The simple solution: flat tax, or at least a major move towards consumption-based taxation.

I must respectfully disagree. You appear to be confusing “levelling the playing field” (i.e., providing equal OPPORTUNITY) with “making everyone equal” (i.e., Communism/Socialism). The former to me is entirely sensible, and should be the general aim of social policy for all democratic civil societies, while the latter is a thoroughly discredited political/economic system.

is it tho? certainly making everyone MORE equal could be a good thing, done the right way.

I am not in favor of government creating moral hazards by subsidizing lazy people (welfare for healthy people), money-losing industries (big agriculture), or trying to “pick winners” in the free market via ill-conceived tax-subsidies, price/wage-fixing or cronyism.

The Japanese govt certainly tried to pick winners thru the actions of the MITI, attempting to marshal national resources and effort in strategic directions for development. And it has worked in terms of steering the Japanese economy towards hi-tech pursuits. I think govts have a role of employing sensible, real world people to provide advice on useful directions for research and development, and providing seed funding where private VC may not. Loads of successful inventions in Oz have to seek VC funding overseas because investors here are too risk-averse and want to plough their money into property or something 'safe' to guarantee a return. Investment in passive, non-productive bricks and mortar, just gouging other people for their wages, rather than looking to the future.

Solar research has just left UNSW in Sydney and gone to China, making a guy a billionaire in the process, apparently, due to laissez faire right wing govt indifference. another invention is the 'permo-drive', a hydraulic braking regeneration device - the ozzies who invented it had to get backing from the US army to develop the technology further - from US tax payers dollars.

'Three Australians saw an opportunity and developed a unique technological solution that will significantly reduce fuel consumption while at the same time boosting acceleration, lessen carbon emissions and dramatically reduce brake wear.'

This techonology can be retrofitted to any large truck or tank to reduce emissions, save 37% on fuel, save brake wear, etc etc.
http://www.permo-drive.com

sod, the old social ism problem...

must respectfully disagree. You appear to be confusing “levelling the playing field” (i.e., providing equal OPPORTUNITY) with “making everyone equal” (i.e., Communism/Social ism). The former to me is entirely sensible, and should be the general aim of social policy for all democratic civil societies, while the latter is a thoroughly discredited political/economic system.

is it tho? certainly making everyone MORE equal could be a good thing, done the right way.

I am not in favor of government creating moral hazards by subsidizing lazy people (welfare for healthy people), money-losing industries (big agriculture), or trying to “pick winners” in the free market via ill-conceived tax-subsidies, price/wage-fixing or cronyism.

The Japanese govt certainly tried to pick winners thru the actions of the MITI, attempting to marshal national resources and effort in strategic directions for development. And it has worked in terms of steering the Japanese economy towards hi-tech pursuits. I think govts have a role of employing sensible, real world people to provide advice on useful directions for research and development, and providing seed funding where private VC may not. Loads of successful inventions in Oz have to seek VC funding overseas because investors here are too risk-averse and want to plough their money into property or something ’safe’ to guarantee a return. Investment in passive, non-productive bricks and mortar, just gouging other people for their wages, rather than looking to the future.

Solar research has just left UNSW in Sydney and gone to China, making a guy a billionaire in the process, apparently, due to laissez faire right wing govt indifference. another invention is the ‘permo-drive’, a hydraulic braking regeneration device - the ozzies who invented it had to get backing from the US army to develop the technology further - from US tax payers dollars.

‘Three Australians saw an opportunity and developed a unique technological solution that will significantly reduce fuel consumption while at the same time boosting acceleration, lessen carbon emissions and dramatically reduce brake wear.’

This techonology can be retrofitted to any large truck or tank to reduce emissions, save 37% on fuel, save brake wear, etc etc.
http://www.permo-drive.com

'Climate of fear' in solar research

Australia's renewable energy researchers are operating in a "climate of fear", causing loss of expertise and tipping a former world-leading industry into decline, a leading scientist says.

Murdoch University Professor of Energy Studies Dr Phillip Jennings said scientists were fearful of losing research grants if they were perceived as criticising Federal Government policies on renewable energy or climate change

"They're afraid of being victimised because they have seen it happen to colleagues who have spoken up about government funding cuts to renewables research," he said.

Former federal energy policy adviser and whistleblower Guy Pearce has also called for "independent and credible economic research" to inform the Government's policy on energy options and climate change.

"It's important to understand that some of the same interests who have persuaded our government to avoid emission cuts domestically also have an interest in domestic nuclear power. Our two biggest uranium producers are also in the coal and aluminium business," Professor Pearce told a coastal environment forum in Queensland last week.

Professor Jennings said Australia had been a pioneer and world leader in solar technology since the 1940s, but was rapidly losing its leadership status as research programs were closed and scientists moved overseas to take up lucrative research opportunities in Europe, China and Japan.

"Australia has already lost solar thermal technology to China because there were no funds for its commercialisation. It would have created an industry worth at least $1billion, but that's gone now.

Professor Jennings said the Federal Government had progressively stripped solar energy of research funding, closing the Energy Research and Development Corporation and the Cooperative Research Centre for Renewable Energy. There were now only two solar energy research centres - at the Australian National University and the University of NSW - despite Australia's strong international track record of innovative solar technology.

Federal Environment Minister Senator Ian Campbell was travelling in Western Australia yesterday and unavailable for comment. Science Minister Julie Bishop was also unavailable.

Greens energy spokeswoman Senator Christine Milne said solar energy researchers had been progressively shut out of national debate on climate change by the Government because "there are thought to be not enough dollars for the big end of town in solar energy".

She said Australia was already losing ground to China, which had set a 15 per cent target for achieving uptake of renewable energy.

China's first billionaire, Dr Zhengrong Shi, a graduate of the University of NSW's renewable energy centre, had recently donated funds to help support renewable energy research at the university "because he felt it was not getting an appropriate level of government support", Senator Milne said.

The Chinese billionaire and founder of Suntech Power returned to China in 2001 to set up a company to make photovoltaic cells for use in solar panels. In 2005, he listed his $296 million company on the New York stock exchange, and its market cap has since soared to $7.2 billion.

http://tinyurl.com/klx8g

Robert Coté Says:
The Home Mortgage Interest Deduction is already capped by the Alternative Minimum Tax. Those sneaky Demicans will stop at nothing to steal everything and debase what they cannot steal.

Peter P Says:
The simple solution: flat tax, or at least a major move towards consumption-based taxation.

all crap. vive la revolution!

SP,

good link, Liu presented a pretty convincing case.

However, I also have serious doubt if such an engineered crash can be done within a couple of years (post Nov election till 2008 election). Which means, the Republicans are very unlikely to embrace such a proposal which may put 2008 right in the middle of a major crash with no recovery in sight, and therefore tanking their chance with the 08 election.

If such a proposal is to be carried out, I believe a better timing will be AFTER the 08 election when the president has 4 years to play with. Therefore, I am more of the camp that Bush and the stakeholders will try to drag things out beyond 2008 and not take drastic actions till then. Politicians are innately complacent, they don't usually instigate changes unless absolutely necessary.

Anyway, I still believe that the RE crash won't be obvious will 2008/2009. That would be hell of a year to remember in history.

The problems with this scenario are (1) Democrats are not organized to ever pull this off

maybe they're too ethical to pull it off. maybe you're thinking with republican style ethics and projecting it onto the dems

(2) those running the party are too stupid to come up with this idea,

i don't know if they're stupid

and (3) those demographic groups don’t vote anyway.

that's partly due to electoral enrolment and vote rigging. for instance, 'culling' the electoral rolls to remove democrat registered voters. putting ailing voting machines in democrat areas. barring felons from ever voting again, even after they've repaid their debt to society. handing provisional voting forms to minorities at voting time. arranging for long voting queues in democrat areas so that people will turn away without voting. hanging chads. non-transparent code in voting machines. Walden 'Wally' O'Dell promising to 'deliver Ohio' to bush via his counting machines. other unknown but suspected tweaks and miscounts. all covered up with a 'veil of propriety' and officialese.

there was a massive effort at enrolling new voters for the 2004 election to get rid of bush, especially younger voters. however, collusion with partisan officials and a total corruption of the system at almost every level made sure their votes didn't count.

(apart from the fact that many hisp. and even younger people vote rep.)

the best 'democracy' money can buy...

Diebold CEO resigns after reports of fraud litigation, internal woes
December 12, 2005

The chief executive officer of electronic voting company Diebold who once famously declared that he would "deliver" Ohio for President Bush has resigned effective immediately.

O'Dell's resignation comes just days after reports that the company was facing imminent securities fraud litigation surrounding charges of insider trading. It also comes on the heels of an interview with a Diebold insider, who raised new allegations of technical woes inside the company, as well as concerns that Diebold may have mishandled elections in Georgia and Ohio.

Sean, you're much too much of an idealist. Of course the Dem leadership might consider such a thing.

And what's with the conspiracy theory stuff? It's not as if the software was written by someone with felony convictions for doing exactly that sort of underhanded code-tweaking. *cough*

@HARM

Thanks for explaining to John M. about my "it's madness" post. Yes, I was just expressing the insanity of the current situation and having a little fun doing it.