patrick.net

rootvg says

. Two and two are still four. If someone asks you a question, you look them in the eye and you answer it. Don't buy things you can't afford. God made Adam for Eve, not for Steve...and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

Hey pal, I used to believe in Santa too, but then I turned nine. Can you please keep your religious speculations out of the real estate forum? Thanks!

rowemoore says

rootvg says

. Two and two are still four. If someone asks you a question, you look them in the eye and you answer it. Don't buy things you can't afford. God made Adam for Eve, not for Steve...and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

Hey pal, I used to believe in Santa too, but then I turned nine. Can you please keep your religious speculations out of the real estate forum? Thanks!

It's not religious, it's philosophical.

And no, I'm not gonna shut up and there's nothing you can do about it.

robertoaribas says

Homes are anything but commodities, each and every one is different, and each transaction has a number of variables: credit strength of the buyer, timing of the close, repairs before close, specifics of the home not observable before inspections, specifics of the neighborhood, home location etc, etc, etc.

Credit strength of the buyer is absolutely meaningless if it's a cash buyer (and even if not, the seller still receives the selling price in cash whether it's handed directly from the buyer or through the lending bank).

Specifics of the neighborhood and location are also freely knowable independent of the buyer and seller's personal details.

The only things that might influence the validity of an offer price are specifics not observable before inspection, and even those can only influence the ultimate price downward, since RE listings generally presume that inspection will be passed and that the home is livable.

For every other item in the world, an offer to sell at a price is an offer to sell at that price. The seller shouldn't even get an opportunity to wait and hope for a higher bidder.

You go to the store to buy that specific toaster.

And you go to an open house to buy that specific home. Homes are even more specific than toasters, since there are a limited number of identical units. (With single family homes, there's typically only one unique unit.)

If they want to run things auction-style with an unstated "reserve price", fine, do it that way. Just don't list a price that basically has no meaning.

Inventory is usually the number of unsold homes at the end of a month divided by the same months sales rate. For example if there are 100 unsold homes at the end of april and during april 10 homes sold then there would be 10 months worth of inventory.

robertoaribas says

Phoenix closed sales last 30 days: 9369

A simple search for Phoenix on Redfin, no constraints, last 30 days of sales, the number is 2,897.

rootvg says

God made Adam for Eve, not for Steve...and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

Go back to Texas.

1sfrenter says

rootvg says

God made Adam for Eve, not for Steve...and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

Go back to Texas.

We bought in Danville. We like it. It fits.

1sfrenter says

fizbin says

Isn't it just possible that the other committed buyers willing to spend more also happen to be nice people with perfectly lovely families, too?

Letters are useful if you have a situation where the seller has to pick between two roughly equivalent offers.

*Almost* all of the buyers are Chinese investors in this neighborhood, and the seller explicitly told us she did not want to sell to them.

Our offer is 19K over asking. 6 months ago, it would have been a done deal, but now, this spring, I don't know.

I just want to make sure our offer gets seen...if it's way under, oh well, nothing lost. But if it's in the ball park and she wants us and asks for more, then maybe...

Look, it's none of my business but why don't you go someplace where you can actually afford to live? Lafayette is progressive and certainly not cheap but it's also not nuts like San Francisco. It's right on BART.

rootvg says

rowemoore says

rootvg says

. Two and two are still four. If someone asks you a question, you look them in the eye and you answer it. Don't buy things you can't afford. God made Adam for Eve, not for Steve...and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

Hey pal, I used to believe in Santa too, but then I turned nine. Can you please keep your religious speculations out of the real estate forum? Thanks!

It's not religious, it's philosophical.

And no, I'm not gonna shut up and there's nothing you can do about it.

I'm just saying I find your philosophy offensive and definitely not appropriate for the real estate forum.

rowemoore says

I'm just saying I find your philosophy offensive and definitely not appropriate for the real estate forum.

I would avoid this line of discussion with him. He has some good points with respect to housing and affordability in the Bay Area from time to time, although it isn't necessarily what some want to hear. However, he thrives on getting under the skin of folks with a sensitivity to political correctness. It's best to just ignore those parts of his posts that you disagree with (his whole shtick is that "progressives" are too narrow minded to tolerate a different POV and will wage war on him for not buying "their agenda").

I grew up here. I've lived here for more than 30 yrs. It definitely has not always been retarded unaffordable. My dad was a professor and mom a stay at home. We bought a house and lived a middle, maybe even upper middle class lifestyle in a city very similar to Danville.

Both my wife and I have advanced graduate degrees and make a decent living, having money and wanting a normal life are two separate things. We in fact could not afford now the house I grew up in. Retarded.
rootvg says

(sigh)

You're not gonna live a normal life here. If that's what you want, you need to move.

It's not the realtors. It's the market. Talk to the old people, listen to what they have to say. The Bay Area was always high and now because of Silicon Valley and all the moneyed foreigners (Chinese and otherwise) who want to live here, it's even higher. If you go down to the Beltway area around DC or up to Boston, it's the same way. It's not cheap in the better suburbs of Columbus anymore. Westerville is high as hell compared to twenty years ago, and that's because of the schools.

Just for reference, prices in Cupertino have shot up appreciably.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10296-Plum-Tree-Ln-Cupertino-CA-95014/19619579_zpid/

Listed for $1,248,800, sold for $1,452,000, new ATH, higher than peak achieved in 2007. Zestimate $1,256,900.

Here is competition for domestic cash buyers. Chinese.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2012-04-03/us-homes-lure-chinese-buyers/53977638/1?AID=4992781&PID=4166869&SID=1ti0x2cqzonm1

REpro says

Here is competition for domestic cash buyers. Chinese.

Sounds like the China RE bubble has made it's way across the Pacific.

wthrfrk80 says

Sounds like the China RE bubble has made it's way across the Pacific.

Economic prosperity and high RE prices in Japan brought Japanese investors to US in previous US RE bust. So motivation was similar. That exodus however, did not have happy ending.

REpro says

Economic prosperity and high RE prices in Japan brought Japanese investors to US in previous US RE bust. So motivation was similar. That exodus however, did not have happy ending.

Chinese and Japanese have major cultural differences.

Yet, unlike the Japanese, who were criticized for overpaying for high-profile U.S. assets in the 1980s and 1990s, many Chinese investors "do not care about the image of a building and usually do not want to pay a premium for such image," says Allen Wu, chairman of Wu & Kao law firm, which represents HNA Group.

hanera says

Just for reference, prices in Cupertino have shot up appreciably.

Interesting data point. Not many same home sales from the 2000's in the last month in Cupertino. I looked through the redfin data and here was the only one actually from 2007:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/1240-Bubb-Rd-95014/home/1119209

Just barely under 2007....

I don't know why anybody would want Cupertino Schools. I think a lot of folks are ignorant about the differences between being a revenue limit district vs basic aid district. Cupertino is underfunded with only their parcel tax helping to salvage a bad situation.

2 cents says

Good article on the front page of the WSJ today about the bidding wars and supply issues. I was surprised that even Phoenix has limited supply. Guess some investors jumped in with both feet there.

Wow, that just ruins the credibility of the WSJ. Sort of depressing that even the WSJ won't tell the truth.

Phoenix has HUGE inventory. GIANT NUMBERS of houses for sale.

Like 12,851 houses for sale right now according to Zillow:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/Phoenix-AZ_rb/

Dept of numbers indicates over 15K houses for sale in Phoenix, but still, I dont find an inventory number that is down -43% on a year over year basis "huge".

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/

I can understand Cupertino, but Phoenix, no way.

Do you know how hot last summer was?
110 degrees for 60+ days.

Also, FWIW, it looks like Phoenix once had over 48K houses in inventory - now that was a "huge" number.

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/

But 15K now...Down over 67% from the bubble peak of 48K is still "huge"???

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2012-04-03/us-homes-lure-chinese-buyers/53977638/1?AID=4992781&PID=4166869&SID=1ti0x2cqzonm1

Right there it is, in black and white. We're seeing it in Danville now.

fizbin says

I don't know why anybody would want Cupertino Schools.

Then you must not work in a tech department in S.V.

B.A.C.A.H. says

fizbin says

I don't know why anybody would want Cupertino Schools.

Then you must not work in a tech department in S.V.

LOL

Sad but true. I have, on a couple of occasions now, heard some of my Indian coworkers bragging about how they bought in Cupertino and the whole discussion centers on the schools and which Ivy League they want their 4th graders to go to. My god, it should be a crime to rob a child of their childhood like that. But hey, gotta chase that money & "prestige!" Then again, that's better than the white parents that name their kids things like Braden, let them dress androgynously and pay $40k/yr to study Creative Writing.

rootvg says

Right there it is, in black and white. We're seeing it in Danville now.

Although I think that a lot of this "immigrants are swarming here" stuff is just a scare tactic, I do get a little concerned about it. I don't give a damn what color my neighbors are, but I do worry about massive numbers of wealthy Chinese people bringing their nasty culture over here. Not Chinese culture, but WEALTHY Chinese culture. There is only one way to get rich over there, and it isn't pretty. Those are also the people that can afford to move here, and the thought of them moving here en masse is a bit disturbing. People here rightfully complain about our political & business leaders behaving immorally, but the people that strike it rich over there are on a whole different level. Again though, I don't think that enough of them are coming here to really "ruin" us or anything. It seems more like NAr scare tactics & a talking point.

50% Chinese want to come to US.
That is 500 million people.
US only has 300 million people.

I expect US house price and RENT to triple.
Can you afford 300% rent increase?

You really think US immigration policy will allow half a billion chinese people to immigrate to the US?
Rent will rise with inflation. Inflation is not going to rise 300%.

The realtor for the people who sold our house to us said if there's a deal where the other side is Chinese, she'll simply not get involved. They can't be trusted. When they agree to something, it's meaningless. They'll wait until the last minute and attempt to change the deal. When you object, they throw some politically correct bullshit in your face and call you a racist.

Mind fog, shades of gray, everything's a puzzle...to hell with them. There's enough other stuff to go around.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Then you must not work in a tech department in S.V.

rowemoore says

rootvg says

When you object, they throw some politically correct bullshit in your face and call you a racist.

So? They call you a racist and you clearly are a racist so what is your problem?

I'm here and I'm staying here and I'm not going to change and that's it.

Everything I've said is true. I see it on a daily basis.

It's not the United States of San Francisco!

rootvg says

rowemoore says

rootvg says

When you object, they throw some politically correct bullshit in your face and call you a racist.

So? They call you a racist and you clearly are a racist so what is your problem?

I'm here and I'm staying here and I'm not going to change and that's it.

I get what you are saying: "We're here! We're queer! Get used to it."

robertoaribas says

my agency opts out of redfin and zillow, and I detest it when buyers call saying "I found a home on redfin or zillow" invariably, that home sold 3 months ago, but those stupid sites have it as active...

From my understanding majority of listings don't make it to redfin/trulia.

hanera says

Advertised price = Invitation to treat, is not an offer to sell at that price.

Legally, an advertised price is definitely an offer to sell under most conditions.

* toasters

* stocks

* cars

Why should real estate be any different?

Because toasters, cars and shares are exact copies sold by millions. Each house seller has one, unique and individual house to sell. Even if mls listing was a promise to sell at the list price, how would you handle more than one buyer for the same property? And, even if a seller had only one offer at full price, they might still not like contingencies.

You say their houses are unique. Really?

rowemoore says

robertoaribas says

Homes are anything but commodities, each and every one is different

That picture looks like a large apartment complex, but with better heat transfer between the inside and outside air. More surface area.

Good for the utility companies. Cha ching!

Advertising a home is not an offer for a very simple legal reasons:

Statute of frauds. Land (any amount)and goods over a certain amount $500 must be in writing with consideration.

There is no element of an offer, it doesn't address who it is offered to, terms beyond price and timing. In a nutshell, it has none of the element of a legal binding offer. With a toaster, there is an implied offer that anyone can buy if it is available, and it is settled immediately. With land, nothing can be implied.

Hope that ends this useless discussion.

Daytona says

Advertising a home is not an offer for a very simple legal reasons:

Statute of frauds. Land (any amount)and goods over a certain amount $500 must be in writing with consideration.

Hope that ends this useless discussion.

Thank your for you eloquent and simple explanation.

But I wouldn't count on it ending the silly discussion. The discussion seems to be propagated by those who have a lot of ego invested in the belief that they are smarter (and probably better looking) than those stupid, gullible idiots who bid on a house not because they use a set of reasonable assumptions that differ from theirs (eg house prices and rents will rise with inflation and that inflation may even accelerate over the next 20 years).

I did get a laugh out of "their" proposal that all bids at the list price must be accepted. Of course the implication of this would be that instantly all list prices would jump by 20% over any kind of anticipated market price to guarantee that the owner didn't get forced into leaving a big pile of cash on the table.....

Everyone is holding out thinking the Facebook IPO will bring in a bunch of high bidders. When it doesn't, the area will suffer another crash.

rootvg says

So, when the opportunity came to move here we accepted it. We made it work even if the politics don't always fit us but we're also not going to deviate from the value set we acquired so many years ago in a place that's far away. Two and two are still four. If someone asks you a question, you look them in the eye and you answer it. Don't buy things you can't afford. God made Adam for Eve, not for Steve...and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

Hmmm, 2+2=4 but in your world did dinosaurs co-exist with humans? Seriously, I'd like to know.

DukeLaw says

rootvg says

So, when the opportunity came to move here we accepted it. We made it work even if the politics don't always fit us but we're also not going to deviate from the value set we acquired so many years ago in a place that's far away. Two and two are still four. If someone asks you a question, you look them in the eye and you answer it. Don't buy things you can't afford. God made Adam for Eve, not for Steve...and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

Hmmm, 2+2=4 but in your world did dinosaurs co-exist with humans? Seriously, I'd like to know.

I lived in Dallas for almost a decade and people there (regardless of socioeconomic standing) do not act this way. We lived in Ohio for thirty years and people there (again, socioeconomic status notwithstanding) don't act like this. I don't give a damn how many letters are behind your name or what you paid for your house or how intelligent someone says you are because you went to a certain school.

There's too much money here in the wrong hands. That's why the residential property market is the way it is. That's why there's a high concentration of influence among people who anywhere else would be selling clothes or serving food.

I've said it a million times and I'll say it again. There are 55 Electoral votes here and that's a lot, the largest number of all the states. But guess what else? It ain't the United States of San Francisco. It's not even the United States of California...and that means you and others like you don't get to redefine reality or spit in the face of God. You just DON'T.

We like living here. We like the climate, love the food and wine (was never so much into that but give me time) and the higher standard of living but NONE of that gives anyone the right to redefine reality or spit in the face of God!

rootvg says

It's not even the United States of California...and that means you and others like you don't get to redefine reality or spit in the face of God. You just DON'T.

I asked a simple question. Give me a yes or no answer. Do you believe that dinosaurs co-existed with human beings?

PS I'm not spitting in the face of God. In fact, I took divinity classes at Duke (so you shouldn't stereotype either).

And you seem to be quite firm that your "reality" is the only one (so who really is trying to impose their values on others??)