patrick.net

http://tinyurl.com/7j7dq5h

what's the big deal in him predicting that real estate would collapse in 2002?

Since you made an NBA analogy upthread, I'll do the same. In 2004, Mark Cuban of the Dallas Mavs let Steve Nash leave his team because he didn't think he could play for a high level. The following year Steve Nash became the league's MVP and 8 years later is still playing elite basketball. If Steve Nash starts breaking down and playing poorly next year, can you really say that Mark Cuban was spot on in his prediction?

Obviously Bernanke has been wrong many times, and after reading the articles posted upthread, it seems like the only thing Schiff was correct about was gold. I mean timing is everything right? What's the point in calling it a bubble if you can't call the or bottom.

Goran_K since you're defending Schiff and go as far as calling him an oracle, what do you think of the article posted by tinytina. Seems pretty clear to me that's he's wrong at least as often as he's right.

23

dunnross 2012 Jul 5, 2:10pm

Thanks. The other one works if you do a manual cut and paste of the full link. For some reason the clickable link stops at the "!"

All those things about Peter Schiff are completely untrue. Peter runs a very respectable fund. Here is a link, where Peter defends his record:

http://www.youtube.com/embed/QG2wGggNP_c&feature=related

24

Goran_K 2012 Jul 5, 2:18pm

These guys have an agenda to convert all patrick members to house buyers

If they want to convert people to home buyers, they should help create jobs, and increase wages instead of spending time on Patrick.net dissing Peter Schiff. Help a brother out for crying out loud.

25

dunnross 2012 Jul 5, 2:20pm

If they want to convert people to home buyers, they should help create jobs, and increase wages instead of spending time on Patrick.net dissing Peter Schiff. Help a brother out for crying out loud.

Well, they don't just want to convert us to house buyers. They want to convert us to debt slaves. They would be better off telling the truth about prices still being too high. Then, prices will fall, and we will all be able to buy and get the economy rolling again.

26

dunnross 2012 Jul 5, 2:21pm

If they want to convert people to home buyers, they should help create jobs, and increase wages instead of spending time on Patrick.net dissing Peter Schiff.

These guys would diss anyone who didn't agree with their greedy agenda.

27 zesta 2012 Jul 5, 3:08pm

... yeah, basketball talk on Patrick.net I love it.

Here's why I used he Cuban/Nash analogy. Knowing that point guards usually start declining after the age of 30, Cuban was willing to give Nash a long term contract. He would not go past 4 years. The Suns gave Nash 6 years. Steve Nash outperformed Cuban's expectations (which had good basis) but Cuban cannot be called right if Nash finally starts declining now.

Similarly, Schiff may have had good evidence to support inflation/housing bubble/rising foreign currencies, but timing is everything, isn't it?

Schiff's obviously a smart guy, but if his investment portfolio struggled in recent years, is he an oracle? Maybe he'd be better of identifying himself as a futurist instead of an economic guru.

28

marcus 2012 Jul 5, 4:22pm

Isn't Peter Schiff the same guy that went on for 20 minutes in that video talking about how the SCOTUS decision on Obama Care doesn't make sense ?

(kidding - I know who Peter Schiff is - and he knows as well as anyone how hard it is to predict exactly how and when the shit hits the fan. We all know it has to at some point since this country is governed by idiots and propaganda)

Btw, he's been saying this for a while.

29

marcus 2012 Jul 5, 4:41pm

You never know Schiff could change his mind. This is from Wikipedia:

"In a May 2002 interview with Southland Today, Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the dot-com stock market bubble, an event that he had also forecast well in advance[citation needed] would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years."[35][36] Later that year, following a 30% decline in the Dow Jones, Schiff reversed his call, and became bullish on U.S. stocks in nominal terms."

30

freak80 2012 Jul 5, 5:02pm

JodyChunder says

I know a boy what et his dog down in Waco Texas. Dog was alive and all.

Was it at least a "wiener dog"?

31

tatupu70 2012 Jul 5, 9:23pm

Like I said, if you look at either food or gas, which is what people spend money on, it's even more.

CPI includes food and gas. So, including those, the CPI is exactly the same.

32 bg 2012 Jul 5, 11:53pm

I sometimes get a little irritated when Patrick puts this guys posts on the cover page. They read/view like an infomercial of doom. Patrick usually doesn't get into commercial stuff. On the other hand, the discussion of Peter Schiff's predictions are interesting. I guess I should be irritated with the infomercial guy not Patrick.

33 anonymous 2012 Jul 6, 1:52am

LOL

34 tiny tina 2012 Jul 6, 2:11am

That's right, Peter "Oracle" Schiff.

I'll give the guy credit for gold, but other than that, what makes him special?

Pat.net readers: raise your hand if you recognized a housing bubble in 2002-2006. I'll bet you most if not all on here saw the bubble. Not sure why Schiff is anything special for such an obvious prediction.

If you look at his predictions overall, he's no better than a coin flip.

35

hidarez 2012 Jul 6, 2:39am

It's not that I disagree w/ Schiff but his problem is that he's destroyed his credibility. I wish he had taken a more tactful approach at getting his name and opinion out there. We need more people with his view spreading the message.

36

Goran_K 2012 Jul 6, 2:50am

zesta says

but if his investment portfolio struggled in recent years

And really, let's be honest, 98% of them "struggled" in recent years. It's not like Schiff is some outlier.

Not that it matters, his ability to beat the S&P has nothing to do with him calling the housing crash earlier, more accurately than anyone else, and in the face of harsh criticism on national TV.

37

Goran_K 2012 Jul 6, 2:54am

The dollar index went from a high of 88 to a low of 73, in 2010. But Schiff was talking about the purchasing power of the dollar, not it's index value.

I can't believe this even has to be cleared up. It's actually shocking.

38

Goran_K 2012 Jul 6, 3:01am

I'll give the guy credit for gold, but other than that, what makes him special?

Pat.net readers: raise your hand if you recognized a housing bubble in 2002-2006. I'll bet you most if not all on here saw the bubble. Not sure why Schiff is anything special for such an obvious prediction.

I didn't see anyone else on national TV at the time calling out Harvard Economist, and the former Chief Economic Adviser to Ronald Reagan about the inherent risk to the housing market because of under writing standards and deregulation.

It's easy to say "I saw the bubble coming from a mile away" in hindsight. In hindsight, everyone is a guru. I tend to think a lot of the people claiming "they knew it was coming" are full of shit. $14 Trillion dollars in lost wealth sort of backs up my point, and tends to weaken yours. A lot of people got caught with their asses hanging in the air right in the path of something you claim "they knew was coming."

39 tiny tina 2012 Jul 6, 3:14am

I didn't see anyone else on national TV at the time calling out Harvard Economist, and the former Chief Economic Adviser to Ronald Reagan about the inherent risk to the housing market because of under writing standards and deregulation.

It's easy to say "I saw the bubble coming from a mile away" in hindsight. In hindsight, everyone is a guru. I tend to think a lot of the people claiming "they knew it was coming" are full of shit. $14 Trillion dollars in lost wealth sort of backs up my point, and tends to weaken yours. A lot of people got caught with their asses hanging in the air right in the path of something you claim "they knew was coming."

Ummm...maybe you are new to this board, but you do know when and why patrick.net was started, right? There were plenty of people on here back then saying housing was in a bubble. I wasn't posting then, but I first came here because I couldn't believe what was going on with housing.

Just because lots of people lost their asses doesn't mean there weren't plenty of people who saw this coming. Are you implying you didn't see it coming? The proof is that some people on this board sold in 2006, and many of us didn't buy until the bubble burst. Obviously, some are still waiting. I guess we're all prognosticators. Schiff was just fortunate enough to get on TV. I still don't get why you only look at his 2 correct calls and ignore his 8 wrong calls.

40

dunnross 2012 Jul 6, 3:18am

It's easy to say "I saw the bubble coming from a mile away" in hindsight.

Yes, they will be saying the same thing after the 2012 Fortress bubble bursts. They will completely forget about all this crap they are telling us right now about all this low inventory, and chinese billionaires and what not, and they will underplay the correct predictions of us, bears, just to cover their own asses.

41

dunnross 2012 Jul 6, 3:26am

didn't buy until the bubble burst.

Problem is, the bubble has just begun to burst. We are still only in the 4th-5th inning of the burst. That's what Peter Schiff is saying now, because he sees this fake economy for what it is, and you don't. When the bubble does implode, completely, you, who bought in 2009-2012 will look just as ridiculous as someone buying in 2006, so your argument about everyone predicting the bubble will no longer be valid.

42

Goran_K 2012 Jul 6, 3:37am

The proof is that some people on this board sold in 2006

Anyone can claim on the internet that they bought in 1995 and sold in 2006 all day long. That certainly wasn't the norm.

I'm also not saying that no one knew the bubble was coming, but Schiff was one of the first to describe the reasons behind why housing was due for a crash and predicted more or less how it would unfold. He was calling it in 2002 before Patrick.net was a housing blog.

Like I said, in hindsight, anyone can claim they knew "it was coming", but that certainly wasn't the norm, or else this economy wouldn't be in the situation it is now.

43

freak80 2012 Jul 6, 3:42am

Problem is, the bubble has just begun to burst. We are still only in the 4th-5th inning of the burst. That's what Peter Schiff is saying now, because he sees this fake economy for what it is, and you don't. When the bubble does implode, completely, you, who bought in 2009-2012 will look just as ridiculous as someone buying in 2006, so your argument about everyone predicting the bubble will no longer be valid.

If you're so confident in that assertion, I urge you to "go short" and make a fortune. Make the rest of use look like fools.

44 tiny tina 2012 Jul 6, 3:43am

Like I said, in hindsight, anyone can claim they knew "it was coming", but that certainly wasn't the norm, or else this economy wouldn't be in the situation it is now.

Obviously it wasn't the norm. No one ever said it was. If you are going to accuse others of using strawmen, don't do it yourself. Just because it wasn't the norm doesn't mean many people didn't see it coming.

This isn't hindsight either. You don't have to believe others like myself waited until after 2009 to buy because we saw the bubble, but it is reality whether you want to acknowledge it.

A good recent example is Edvard. He rented for ~10 years waiting for prices to get reasonable. Is he special too?

45 zesta 2012 Jul 6, 3:51am

The dollar index went from a high of 88 to a low of 73, in 2010. But Schiff was talking about the purchasing power of the dollar, not it's index value. So, in terms of how many barrels of oil can the dollar buy, the oil price went from $70 to $110, which is more than 50%. Schiff was right on the money, there

REALLY?!? He was talking about the purchasing power of dollar relative to gold and oil? but not to corn or RE or silver or pork bellies?

C'mon, he was talking about purchasing power of dollar to other foreign currencies.

The fact is that there have ALWAYS been people extolling the virtues of gold and bearish on housing. Since both work in cycles, someone is always going to be right. It's getting the timing that's tough

46

freak80 2012 Jul 6, 3:54am

I don't understand "fighting" over investment topics. Why don't the bulls and bears just place their respective bets and move on?

47

Goran_K 2012 Jul 6, 4:11am

This isn't hindsight either. You don't have to believe others like myself waited until after 2009 to buy because we saw the bubble, but it is reality whether you want to acknowledge it.

No one is using strawmen.

My point is, you, your brother's third cousin, or any other anecdotal story isn't special or worthy of mention, especially from "internet tales". You actually have a habit of doing this. Remember the affordable SFH in nice areas of the Bay Area debate? You claimed to know "areas" where this was possible, but refused to give a city, or even neighborhood. That's just like now, an internet tale. Anyone can go on the internet and say "I knew that was going to happen", that's not special.

Sure, you knew housing was going to crash. You knew gold was going to rise. Then why aren't you and your friends all multi-millionaires enjoying the Malibu sun instead of claiming you knew all these things were going to happen on Patrick.net.

Like I said, you, and any other person who claims AFTER the fact that you knew things were going to happen isn't very special.

Going out into the public on national TV, 4 years before the crash, and doing it in the face of harsh criticism from your peers is.

48

Goran_K 2012 Jul 6, 4:19am

zesta says

The fact is that there have ALWAYS been people extolling the virtues of gold and bearish on housing. Since both work in cycles, someone is always going to be right. It's getting the timing that's tough

That's the thing. You and people like tiny tina keep insisting that what Peter described in 2002 wasn't special.

Sure, it's easy to say that in 2012, after the fact, but where were you and tina's publications or even web articles stating that housing was heading for an imminent crash, and that Gold was going to triple in price.

Why aren't you two nationally known economist that get paid lots of money to talk about the economy like Peter Schiff?

When it comes down to it, two anonymous internet trolls who think they "knew" how things were going to go down is meaningless, and that's why Peter Schiff is a nationally known economist whose opinion people pay for, talk and write about, and why you two troll on Patrick.net for free.

49 tiny tina 2012 Jul 6, 4:48am

No one is using strawmen.

You did, but that's ok.

My point is, you, your brother's third cousin, or any other anecdotal story isn't special or worthy of mention, especially from "internet tales". You actually have a habit of doing this. Remember the affordable SFH in nice areas of the Bay Area debate? You claimed to know "areas" where this was possible, but refused to give a city, or even neighborhood. That's just like now, an internet tale. Anyone can go on the internet and say "I knew that was going to happen", that's not special.

I think you are attributing someone else's quote to me.

Sure, you knew housing was going to crash. You knew gold was going to rise. Then why aren't you and your friends all multi-millionaires enjoying the Malibu sun instead of claiming you knew all these things were going to happen on Patrick.net.

Yes, I knew housing was going to crash. I'm surprised you didn't. I had no idea gold would rise. By the way, your comment about "knew all these things" is again a strawman. Maybe look it up if you are going to keep doing it while insisting you don't. I said I knew 1 thing - housing was in a bubble. The evidence is me not purchasing until after 2009, like it or not. The additional evidence is Edvard not purchasing until this year. The even more evidence is the many posters on here who thanked patrick for the website and said they were signing off in 2009, 2010 and 2011 after they purchased when they felt the bubble had burst.

50

tatupu70 2012 Jul 6, 5:00am

I know Goran won't read this, but his blindness is astounding. Here's a quick story:

Gold is at 100 today and I say it's in a bubble
then it goes up for 4 years to 250
then it crashes back to 100 over the next 2 years.

Was I a prophet?

What if it had stayed at 100 for the next 6 years? Would I be wrong then?

51 tiny tina 2012 Jul 6, 5:30am

You did claim that you knew of affordable, cash-flow positive, SFH in NICE parts of the Bay area and when I called you out on it, you refused to give a city, or even ZIP code.

That's absolutely not true. I gave you specifics all the way down to a house in Cupertino. And yes, it wound up being a discussion based on "cash-flow" and your piss-poor initial definition which wound up being clarified...eventually.

My definition of "not special" is making 10 predictions and getting 1.5 correct (housing being a sort of considering he made it way too early).

If you want to follow Schiff as an oracle - go ahead. I just wanted to point out he has made a few mistakes. If you are being objective, I'm not sure why you would ignore those. Moving on.

52

Goran_K 2012 Jul 6, 5:34am

That's absolutely not true. I gave you specifics all the way down to a house in Cupertino.

You did that to the universal mockery of the forum, and 7 dislikes on your posting. But yes, let's move on, I think that would be best.

53

freak80 2012 Jul 6, 5:34am

Bulls and Bears:

Place your bets.

Anyone can make a fortune investing with 20/20 hindsight. Even me!

54

Goran_K 2012 Jul 6, 5:35am

wthrfrk80 says

Anyone can make a fortune investing with 20/20 hindsight. Even me!

Exactly. My. Point.

Monday morning quarterbacks have a 100% success rate.

55 tiny tina 2012 Jul 6, 5:40am

I guess I don't get the monday morning quarterbacking. I bought a house in the BA after waiting for many years. There's my bet.

If you guys are bears, go short the housing sector or whatever. Publicly document your transaction. Waiting...

56 tiny tina 2012 Jul 6, 6:54am

doo-da-doo

57 tiny tina 2012 Jul 6, 6:56am

So, any bears or other followers of Schiff going to post their recent shorts of the market? What happened to "place your bets"?

58

Goran_K 2012 Jul 6, 8:26am

Are you sure those are cash-flow positive? One of them isn't even for sale, it last sold for $710,000.

59 zesta 2012 Jul 6, 8:57am