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Well CA is generally a bad place to buy right now, too much speculation and government interference.
Patrick,
Experience should show us that the slowest time for real estate is around December while the hottest would be spring/summer. We should look at why your data does not fit this pattern.
To me it seems your data is very 1 dimensional by focusing only on the price which is collected from craigslist. Without having any meaning behind the price you can't tell if the market is going up or down. The examples that can distort the your numbers would be more high end homes listed or less low end homes listed. Maybe a 30 million dollar property was listed? One way to normalize the data would be to display dollars/square foot.
Do you remove data points that are extreme outliers?
Whether you believe Patrick's data or not, Redfin is showing a month-over-month decrease in the S.F market, the first since February of this year. I've seen other cities in the Bay Area where this is the case too, during a time when RE should be strong seasonally.
If it makes you happy, we could go back to the days when railroads controlled the movement of farm commodities.
I made no comment on the relative merit, only that it is a fact that capital is taxed away from "blue states" (as an approximation) and reallocated into flyover states. The degree to which this occurs is rather stark, in fact. Ostensibly, it is being done for rational reasons.
Good to see the quickness with which conclusions are assumed hasn't changed here over the past 7 years.
I agree that my data is limited because the MLS's won't share with anyone who is not in the business if maximizing debt (and therefore prices).
But at the same time as they forbid you from copying prices from their websites, realtors advertise prices publicly.
How can I get forum users to enter prices and addresses? I'm thinking of something like gasbuddy.com. Just don't know what would make it click and motivate people to do it.
Good to see the quickness with which conclusions are assumed hasn't changed here over the past 7 years.
The reason I was quick: quite a few people use those statistics to claim that the "red states" are deadbeats living off gummint cheese funded by the "blue states."
Much of it is just a testament to the efficiency of modern farming. You don't need many farmers per acre anymore, but you still need the roads to get the crops to market.
Maybe in the future, energy will be cheap enough that the crops can be airlifted. That'd be pretty sweet.
Wow, the return of Randy H! Are you still hunkered down in a rental, or did you buy?
FWIW, redfin (see ducky's link above) does show a month-to-month drop in median price of SF homes (April to May). Note that the condo market has heated up and combined condo & home median is up month-to-month. Also, DQ numbers do NOT show a month-to-month drop like redfin.
My goodness, that's just crazy that house prices can go from $165 to $235 in 6 months. Did they just discover gold in Contra Costa Co? Or does warm weather just loosen wallets?
I'll keep my stable Rust Belt RE market. ;-)
Did they just discover gold in Contra Costa Co?
You come into my shop. I say I want seven dollars for a cup of delicious frozen yoghurt. You tale me to go to hell, and I says, well. tell you waht buddy. I give you the six dollars what you aint willing to spend on and you pay me back very slowly over time with a tiny bit of interest and suddenly, since it ain't money coming out of your jeans right then that yoghurt starts looking pretty good. and it is hot outside. simple as that.
NAR data isnt independent, nor has it been verified by independent parties.
Christ all mighty! ... you and the NAR are made for each other...
Your the poster child of the of the RE industry in California!
I tend to not trust NAR. But I do generally trust Case-Shiller since he's not trying to sell me anything.
@EBGUY
Are you still hunkered down in a rental, or did you buy?
We bought in 2008 from a distressed investor. Got a good deal and, now that we're actually getting ready to sell again and move out of Marin, I'm happy that the worst likely outcome is that we have to sell for what we paid plus transaction costs.
Right now, depending upon your housing needs (school district, sq ft, # BRs, etc) you are significantly better off buying and servicing a mortgage than renting even when controlling for all other factors. Rents have inflated so much that it's a better proposition to buy even if you pay down zero equity simply due to tax distortions. Yes...even the bubblizer shows this. We live in interesting times...
It is really irrelevant what prices are doing, what is relevant that any increase in house prices, even a stall for that matter, cannot be supported by the average income as wage increases are mostly not happening and if they are they are so abysmal that after inflation most of them are still looking at a real income decline. So in the long run prices will crater (or the currency will be worthless), math just is (and can hardly be argued with) and on a long enough time-line you cannot spend more than you take in.
everyone has an agenda. Case-Shiller does not try to sell you real estate, that's what you probably meant.
What is their agenda? Follow the money.
I'm assuming that you followed the money. Where does it go in the case of C-S? I'm actually interested to know. Maybe the guy does it for the same reason many academics do, to get grants and funding, as well as some notoriety?
What is their agenda? Follow the money.
We'll I'm not about to make any major financial decisions based on C-S.
Are you suggesting that Yale somehow benefits if I buy (or don't buy) a house?
Considering that if you really want the entertainment of S.F., you can always BART in in 1 hr tops and then go back to the suburb and not deal with all the noise, dirt, panhandlers, parking inconveniences and myriad of other issues.
It's not about entertainment for me. It's about connection. I find that when I live away from noise and dirt, I start to think I deserve things like fresh water and a driveway. That's a very disconnecting way to think in that very many people in the world would not connect with that way of thinking. My thoughts are more calm and happy when I have that connection.
Randy H said:Got a good deal and, now that we're actually getting ready to sell again and move out of Marin
Are you migrating out of state... or into the City?
What is Patrick's agenda? :0)
Mostly I just hate the current system that throws generations of new buyers to the wolves over and over again. I myself was in that situation and it bent my brain to the point where I had to do something about it.
Beyond that, I'd like to make money somehow. I just refuse to make money by cooperating with the evil current system of "everyone against the buyer". The buyers need someone on their side, and I think they'll pay something if they see the value.
Are you migrating out of state... or into the City?
We're moving back into the Valley grinder. Los Altos to be specific. My better half took a role as a CFO for a valley company and I'm able to work out of our 1 Market location in SF, so we split the commute.
If I were to live in the city, the only way I would do it would be to get a rent controlled apartment in sunset district, that's about it
I used to have a rent-controlled apartment in the Sunset district. I traded that for a rent-controlled apartment in North Beach. It's noisy. I now pay for parking. Drunks are breaking bottles in the street on Friday and Saturday nights. But, somehow, I'm much happier. I think of noise as texture and rather enjoy city sounds.
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You wouldn't know it from reading stories planted by the California Association of Realtors and Dataquick (which gets all its income from realtors), but San Francisco prices have actually been falling lately:
#housing