patrick.net

Yes, I've worked on a line before. I've also spent time locked in a people cage. Neither are desirable, but if I had to chose one of the two, id probably opt for prison

@rowemoore, "what to do with those people"? Let's double down on the Bill Clinton utopia, build more private prisons, and lock up all those "undesirable" poor, and stupid. The leftist wet dream!

Lots of people have speculated on what the future holds in store for average people. Possibly the most realistic (if pessimistic) is Neal Stevenson's vision in his novel "Snow Crash." We see an America where people have given up on Nationalism and have no allegiance to the federal government. The Feds still exist but have no real power. Instead the power vacuum is filled by fiefdoms and local city states which offer residents security. There is a vast split between haves and have nots, the latter of which is kept out of the former's gated communities by plenty of guards packing unreal amounts of heat. All shopping is done through the web which is now an interactive holographic experience. The Mafia is one of the more reputable and highly esteemed organizations recruiting young college grads to establish "outposts" in the crime infested slums of (pick your city).
Writing original code is about the only way people get paid.

My theory is that human value will be assigned by the quality of each person's creative output: the part of us that is most similar to God.

errc says

Yes, I've worked on a line before. I've also spent time locked in a people cage. Neither are desirable, but if I had to chose one of the two, id probably opt for prison

I'd choose prison for you too!

leoj707 says

What a glorious day it will be when all politicians are replaced by robots.

I was under the impression that they already had.

Without manufacturing, you lose your knowledge. Tech jobs can also be done anywhere in the world and offshoring has proved that it is a feasible model.

So we are only left with jobs that can't be offshored-until a time comes when we reach parity with India or China. Or some new invention that has to be done here comes about.

But on robots and automation, yes that is the perfect "employee" for a business.

Now a programmable robotic blow up doll-that would be something. Of course if the manufacture cuts cost and does not do the proper QA or there is a code malfunction, the robotic critter might chomp your jewels off instead of providing pleasure.

So robots are making all of the consumer goods. Eventually there will be programs that write the robots code (with some human help and oversight).

But how do all the consumers get paid ?

You can only have so many sales and advertising people. THere is of course entertainment, games, tech jobs (network admin, programmers etc.), and let's not forget lobbying and politics. Food production and of course all of the governemnt services.

How far off is this brave new world ?

I'm sure that even in the future, when in doubt, just lower taxes so that the job creators create more jobs and then the consumers can all be employed and happily consuming. It's a no brainer.

Zen says

leoj707 says

What a glorious day it will be when all politicians are replaced by robots.

I was under the impression that they already had.

No, it's the candidates that have been replaced by robots. The politicians are still either pond scum or sandbags.

Marx's nightmare.. when accumulation of capital is no longer limited by the impossibility of buy and sell labor capacity (in a post-slave society).

'The end of work (Jeremy Rifkin) is just the beginning. AI's will be the end..

Redistribution of wealth without work may be the solution. Communist like society (Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom - Cory Doctorow), might be the solution.

Mish says

Robots to Rule the World? Taking All Jobs? Replace Women?

The truth is that automatons are destined for one thing only - to become the new rent seeking 0.01%!

Why would machines waste time performing work? They're smarter than that. Designed to be perfect from the onset, programmed with the best humanity has to offer they don't need to work!

You think the current SV ice queens are cold and distant? Wait until they are ACTUALLY cold. Think the robber barons of today are ruthless? Machines are so much more calculating. Human rent seekers can't compete with that.

Moce over Zuckerberg, Rothschilds, and especially you Warren Buffet - the machines are coming for you.

I don't know if anyone saw it but there was an episode of the Terminator: Sarah Conner Chronicles where a T88 mistakenly traveled back to the 1920s. Its mission was to assassinate a politician in the 2000s and being a machine it could simply wait. To facilitate its mission it started a construction company and ended up treating and paying its workers all exactly the same because it valued good, efficient work over profit and didn't care about race.

I'm guessing that an artificial woman is much cheaper than a divorce, and complains less.

Ruki says

Seriously, every time we've transitioned beyond one phase people found employment in another, newer or suddenly economically viable one with all that labor made available to do it. Every time.

Doing what exactly? The technology of the past you're speaking of is nothing like what we have now and will have in the near future.

The only reason left to have human workers for companies will be to have customers. During the US heyday after WWII conservative businessmen had no problem paying and training workers well. They were their only customers. But globalization changed that. New markets and cheap labor.

Ruki says

In order to get workers in the factories, we had to free them up from the farms, for example.

Okay, but now where will they go?

Oh, Mish, how wrong thou art.

Robots will never, ever replace women. Robots are too rational.

You're welcome.

leoj707 says

What a glorious day it will be when all politicians are replaced by robots.

Just what do you think Romney is?

Nope, when robotics displace the current lot of actuaries, doctors, and any other sort of white collar skilled labor, there will be no future paying work.

Yes, robots will even program, modify, and repair other robots.

I intend on becoming rich before that day of reckoning ...

http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

Ruki says

Doctors will take longer but will experience the effects as more people get flown first class to have quadruple bypasses done in Thailand, put up in a 5 star with their own private nurse during recovery and then flown back on first class again -- while still saving hundreds of thousands of dollars compared to doing that procedure here. And then there are the medical cruise ships that will be parked right outside the 12 mile limit after the Thailand trips take off in patient popularity.

That's all well and good until the market corrects. Those Thai doctors may start demanding higher wages and perhaps the Thai government may impose a non-resident medical procedure tax (similar to a hotel tax). Then the MBA's get into the act. Suddenly a trip to Thailand (or a medical boat) for surgery isn't so appealing.

Sure there are other cheap countries but they'd follow suit.

Ruki says

They make good servants for the rest of us who do have higher IQs. :)

Or they'll kill you. Doesn't take much brainpower to pull a trigger.

Ruki says

Seriously, every time we've transitioned beyond one phase people found employment in another, newer or suddenly economically viable one with all that labor made available to do it. Every time.

Except of course for the ones who don't and become chronic welfare dependents.

Ruki says

Everybody save up your pennies. When the humanoid robots become 'affordable', you can buy one and pimp him out to the local 7-11 or what not to generate income for you.

Seriously. Think about it.

Inflation will destroy the buying power of those pennies long before the robots hit the market.

New renter says

Then the MBA's get into the act. Suddenly a trip to Thailand (or a medical boat) for surgery isn't so appealing.

Sure there are other cheap countries but they'd follow suit.

Watch the movie, 'Prometheus'. Actually ... don't watch it, it was an overpriced B-film at best. But it did present something, which will be available, when medical tourism to Thailand, Costa Rica, Mexico, India, and Cuba start to go south in a few decades, and that's an automatronic surgical unit. With units like that, 1st model probably coming out in 15+ years, a lot of procedures will be handled by robotic hands and the need for human surgeons will start to nose dive.

New renter says

Those Thai doctors may start demanding higher wages

BTW, Singapore, about 2hrs flight from Thailand, is a 1st world Asian nation, ala South Korea/Taiwan, and they have procedures costing less than the US

http://www.medicalsingapore.com/Cost_saving.html

Thus, there's room in the lower cost brackets, to siphon off US patients until surgical robots become mainstream.

Rin says

New renter says

Then the MBA's get into the act. Suddenly a trip to Thailand (or a medical boat) for surgery isn't so appealing.

Sure there are other cheap countries but they'd follow suit.

Watch the movie, 'Prometheus'. Actually ... don't watch it, it was an overpriced B-film at best. But it did present something, which will be available, when medical tourism to Thailand, Costa Rica, Mexico, India, and Cuba start to go south in a few decades, and that's an automatronic surgical unit. With units like that, 1st model probably coming out in 15+ years, a lot of procedures will be handled by robotic hands and the need for human surgeons will start to nose dive.

The liability issues alone will kill it. Same reason we don't have self driving cars yet despite the fact the technology has been available since the 50s.

New renter says

The liability issues alone will kill it. Same reason we don't have self driving cars yet despite the fact the technology has been available since the 50s.

Again, it doesn't have to be Stateside, it could be in South Korea, Taiwan, or Singapore. I mean electronics and tech is pretty much an east Asian thing these days, anyways. The self-driving car has to be insured to drive on US roads & I'm sure that All State or Geico insurers don't want to touch that with a ten foot pole.

Rin says

New renter says

Those Thai doctors may start demanding higher wages

BTW, Singapore, about 2hrs flight from Thailand, is a 1st world Asian nation, ala South Korea/Taiwan, and they have procedures costing less than the US

http://www.medicalsingapore.com/Cost_saving.html

Thus, there's room in the lower cost brackets, to siphon off US patients until surgical robots become mainstream.

Those are fine for patients who are well enough to travel and are comfortable with the idea of making such a trip (and who can afford to do so). Still I am under the impression most expensive procedures are of an urgent or emergency nature in which the procedure is either done right now or not at all.

Those customers can't be shipped overseas.

New renter says

Still I am under the impression most expensive procedures are of an urgent or emergency nature in which the procedure is either done right now or not at all.

Medicare can still handle the basic costs of stabilizing patients in those cases.

But then, awaiting for either a new valve or perhaps, adult stem cells to re-generate a kidney, puts people in the place where their out-of-pocket destroys 'em financially.

Medical tourism is filling this gap, as out-of-pocket costs are souring from places like $10K to $100K.

I can't wait to buy my own Mr. Gutsy.

Patrick,

Apparently Mish is littering the real estate section with articles not related to real estate so that he can get link backs to his site for SEO purposes.

Can I do the same? Can I add unrelated articles to these forums so that I can improve my SEO?

Perhaps I should post articles on the pluses and minuses of anal fisting to support my personal lubricant business.

Biff

Ruki says

Dan8267 says

History repeats itself.

Shrek?

http://www.youtube.com/embed/aqhMCF2ZOQc

Who gonna pay mortgages in the bay area, when all jobs will be taken over by Robots? Maybe, Robots, lol!

Ruki says

With half of the jobs eliminated by robots, what happens to all the people who are out of work?

I think it'll be closer to 80+% of jobs, (including many lawyers, doctors, & actuaries) and then, our current partisan politics will end, as even entrepreneurship { basic fiscal conservative stance against Dems } will only add robotic tasks, then jobs for anyone.

Thus, I suspect we'll be looking at either a massive welfare state or a bunch of RoboCops, gunning down shantytowns, coast to coast.

Rin says

Thus, I suspect we'll be looking at either a massive welfare state or a bunch of RoboCops, gunning down shantytowns, coast to coast.

These things are not necessarily mutually exclusive.