patrick.net

mike2 says

Right on Roberto! It doesn't matter if the RE market is fake or manipulated. Like the stock market isn't? Like gov grants and college grants and section 8 and food stamps and free medical are not? the entire economy is fake, has been fake and probably will be for a very long time.

That's a ridiculous generalization. What's important is HOW and WHY each individual market is manipulated. Roberto got out two years too soon in '05 and is getting in two years too early now. As a result of playing it safe he's going to get to keep his shirt but he will be crying in his rice and beans.

I just feel bad for the poor kids in his classes.
Little Juan: "But Mr. aribas, you just said that 17 was a prime number last week! How did that change?"
RA: "When you've got seven houses in this town you can question me!"

Yup says

Bubbaariba's if you knew anything about markets and how they function you would understand that when anyone artificially manipulated supply or demand you have a dysfunctional market that can not set a proper price.

Actually, over time, manipulation is built in and becomes the new normal. For example, certain ag products such as milk prices have been manipulated (and sometimes heavily manipulated) for the last 70+ years. Yet, very few are waiting for the manipulation to end before they buy some milk.

CDon says

milk prices have been manipulated (and sometimes heavily manipulated) for the last 70+ years. Yet, very few are waiting for the manipulation to end before they buy some milk.

So invest in housing because milk has been manipulated and people still buy milk. With that sort of genius you might just become the next NAR president!

"Housing does a body good."

Logan Mohtashami says

Would you care to ask this kid a question, who worked for Mommy and Daddy

I would think growing up in the business would give you more insight than someone who walked in off the street. Don't mind Roberto. That's his way of whistling past the graveyard. Welcome.

tannenbaum says

Just remember - karma. And the fact that Roberto can purchase all of Maricopa County and beyond, but he ultimately "can't take it with him".

Roberto is clearly not here to learn. He knows it all. He's staying on a bearish forum when he's clearly a bull now. Is it mature to try to change a bunch of bears into bulls by insulting and belittling them? Somebody is a few tacos short of a combo platter. Now why would someone like that be here?

Successful, healthy people surround themselves with people who are supportive of what they're doing.

Bigsby says

If you really think he should be having sleepness nights given his situation, then you are living in la-la land.

If he can't keep his places rented and the rents drop yet his expenses stay the same he's going to need to sell. Oh but wait, the market has declined and he can't sell without a loss...

Can't happen. "La la land." Just watch.

robertoaribas says

I teach calculus... Maybe that is the problem i have on here, is that I'm used to speaking to people that have some intelligence and ability to learn.

hey patrick, this element could stand a good ole delete hisself.

ELC says

So invest in housing because milk has been manipulated and people still buy milk. With that sort of genius you might just become the next NAR president!

Not at all. The point was a very limited one refuting the contention that due to manipulation, you will have a "dysfunctional market that can not set a proper price." You absolutely can if the manipulation continues for so long that it becomes part of the market.

So the question as to when to "invest" (and I actually kinda hate that word in this context as many here simply want to buy a place and get on with life w/o fear there is another monumental drop dead ahead) is when do you see the purported "manipulation" ending and how? Will it be quick and maybe cause a dislocation? Or will it be drawn out into a huge nothing burger?

Now the question as to the particular "artificial" condition of underwater sellers holding out causing a dearth of inventory - had you really thought about it in 07 & 08, how else would one expect a bottom to form? Fact of the matter is, prices in some areas will not hit nominal highs for 10-20 years, meaning underwater homeowners will be a way of life for some markets for at least that long.

And now that the powers that be have been manipulating more heavily since TARP, QE, etc. have seen the results of their manipulation turn a scorching downturn into years of stagnation, why would they suddenly change course? In essence why would they suddenly rip the band aid off, potentially destroying the stagnation they worked so hard to create in the first place?

So the question now is what will these underwater homeowners do going forward? Absent a black swan type event, (which is a potential factor now, 10 years from now, and every other moment of our lives) will they suddenly, en masse decide that they cant take it any more, puke up short sale inventory in droves, potentially driving prices back to the stone age...

or

Will they do what they did to cause a bottom in the first place, which is individually, and agonizngly slowly make non-uniform decisions. To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate - basically the same decisions they individually have been making since the beginning of the bursting in 07, the arresting of the downward momentum in 09, and the stagnation of the last 3 years.

The answer to me seems obvious - meaning the forecast is years of stagnation to (at best) a market that rises lower than the rate of inflation while the remaining excesses are worked off.

So if you are investing, you better do it for rents - and if places dont pencil out in your area, dont invest in homes.

And if you are waiting to buy a place to live in, do so, only because you need to get your down payment or other financial affairs in order first - or because you just arent ready. There clearly is no need to rush.

Still if your reason to wait is because you see TPTB suddenly ripping the band aid off, and underwater homeowners capitulating en masse, creating a fantasy land of manna from heaven inventory levels and stone age prices, well, I dont know what to tell you.

CDon says

To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate

I think they will follow herd mentality as usual and at a certain point all give up.

BTW, great post.

CDon says

The answer to me seems obvious - meaning the forecast is years of stagnation to (at best) a market that rises lower than the rate of inflation while the remaining excesses are worked off.

Like the saying goes, "the market abhors a vacuum." No one makes money in stagnation. It won't be tolerated for long. If the efforts to create a bubble fail you will see a push to create a crash.

The Government is going to run out of the juice it will take to create a bubble. And really what it will take is going back to no-doc loans and the lifting of buyback clauses, and I don't see that happening soon.

ELC says

BTW, great post.

Thank you. while im not above the occasional snark, I do appreciate discouse too.

ELC says

I think they will follow herd mentality as usual and at a certain point all give up.

OK, but arent they, by definition all following the herd now? Right now, the herd is (1) sitting tight toughing it out and (2) capitulating so slowly and so infrequently as to cause the dearth of inventory and bottom we see now.

It sounds like you are assuming the herd (which has been following the path above for the past 3-4 years) will suddenly capitulate en masse. Outside of a black swan event (which IMO if you worry about this everpresent fact of life is a reason to never buy) is there anything specific you see happening that will change the situation?

ELC says

Like the saying goes, "the market abhors a vacuum." No one makes money in stagnation. It won't be tolerated for long. If the efforts to create a bubble fail you will see a push to create a crash.

Abhorent or not, they do exist. Witness for example the early 90s real estate bust. From 1992-1998 the stagnation continued, pretty much unabated before prices took off again. No money was made (or lost) during that time. As an aside - if you go gack to the early days of the internet chatrooms, you see some interesting paralels where people are fairly convinced the 92-98 stagnation was just a prelude to a much bigger catastrophic drop in home prices.

ELC says

The Government is going to run out of the juice it will take to create a bubble. And really what it will take is going back to no-doc loans and the lifting of buyback clauses, and I don't see that happening soon.

Here we disagree, not only in intent but in scope. TPTB intent is not to create another "bubble", but instead a "floor". Thats why I believe all those who are calling for a real "recovery" will be disappointed as we continue to stagnate and work off the excesses.

As to scope, frankly, I dont think you have any real idea how far they are willing to go to keep a floor in place. Remember, back in 08, a real honest to goodness liquidity trap was setting up - CPI actually fell, Ted spread was off the charts, we broke the buck for godsakes.

All that talk of "we were 6 hours away from TEOTWAKI in the form of electronic bank runs" was not all hyperbole. Among many of the wonks, that really was how close we were.

So, rightly or wrongly, you have to keep in mind thats what is driving their thinking and the scope of how much juice they have to keep the floor in place. The thinking among TPTB is that a true honest to goodness liquidity trap is so dangerous that it simply cannot be allowed to happen. Revolutions are borne on the shoulders of such events.

Thus, before they have to roll out the tanks to defend the status quo, ask yourself what they will do to prevent this possibility.

Interest rate changes
Changes in Discount rates
ZIRP
QE
TARP
QE2
Operation Twist
QE3 (we are here)
QE to infinity
Nationalization of industries or sectors of the economy.
Debt Jubilees
Selective Defaults
Printing of checks to every man woman and child in the US (remember, the moniker "helecopter ben" isnt mere hyperbole - read his position paper on how far he would go to prevent deflation).
The Sale of govt controlled assets.
Privatization of licenses.
The sale of Alaska.

Again, not saying I agree with their viewpoint. I do however understand what they (at least think) they are up against. So long as thats the case, I really dont see why they will suddenly "rip the band aid off" given the alternative is so much more potentially devestating than the status quo.

robertoaribas says

cdon just wrote a very cogent explanation of the market... and immediately gets a dislike...
see, that is what starts to set some people (like me) off on this site. His response was frankly one out of a hundred in terms of quality on this blog; If you don't like his premises or conclusions, explain how you see the world differently...

Ive always found that strange too. Construct a decent argument and (other than ELC who had a thoughtful one) get nary a peep in response other than a bunch of dislikes.

If there was a agree/disagree button, that would make a bit more sense - almost like "I disagree with what you are saying, but I dont have the time or energy to pen a response". And maybe in fact that is what people are trying to say.

Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger. So my guess is more often then not the dislike is either:

"I dont like what you are saying. I think you are wrong, but I dont have the ability to debate you on the merits, so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

or

"I actually think you could be right - but I dont want to admit that, and I dont like that you are telling me something I dont want to hear...so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

Either way, its rather disappointing. Incidentally, I won der how many dislikes this post about the nature of dislikes will get?

CDon says

Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger.

I find it that way on all forums where it's free to join and you can post anonymously with little moderator interference. Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry. In fact they're probably watching TV and talking with their spouse at the same time they're typing. Others have a whiskey in one hand and are typing with the other. Don't take it to heart.

I *only* use message boards while drinking

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

MsBennet says

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!

Roberto, I agree with bmwman. Use the ignore button. I think your post are pretty informative from the landlord perspective, but getting into flame wars where you're calling people "morons, little girls, etc" and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.

Man, I was in the Philippines a while back when I used to work for Goldman sachs. All I remember is that metro Manilla was brutal. The heat, the smog, the traffic. I'm guessing whereever you're moving isn't near there.

Billybigrig says

you may have received one dislike but did anyone once use a condenseding retort

Only mildly. But still, fair point.

Billybigrig says

the only thing this guy is doing is trying to say a few hail Mary's and thinks everthing will be all warm and fuzzy again...
In my neck of the woods we call it backpeddling...

Not sure I understand. What "guy"?

ELC says

Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry.

Probably true as im relatively new to blogging. Still seems like a waste of time to mostly log in to hurl insults, but obviously, im in the minority.

robertoaribas says

and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.
It was liarwhaterver that started that "buying exotic private islands..."
I intend to RETIRE to an exotic non private island... why the hell would I want a private island? where would I go out to eat? do yoga? hang out in coffee shops playing on the internet? find friends to kayak and mountain bike with?

Completely OT, but I happen to know a guy who bought a private island...Big Mistake.

Theyre actually kinda cheap so the guy (who had IBM ground floor money) bought it on a lark. The reason they are so cheap however is they are undeveloped - and development costs a FORTUNE. Had to build a mini wastewater treatment facility to get enough drinking water. For the pouring of the slab, it was actually cheaper to build a facility & manufacture the concrete on site, than it was to ship in fully loaded cement trucks from the nearest islands. Insurance was sky high as risks like "piracy" were built into the policy. He had to contract with the Govt to ensure they would defend his island if it were invaded. Overall it was a nightmare.

MsBennet says

By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

somethings are best said in italian: ce l’ ha piccolo!

robertoaribas says

pazuzu says

"Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night."

That's what the bottle is for.

yes, with 13 homes and 5 mortgages, I feel really nervous. I mean, I only take in $13,000 a month in rent, and I have to pay $7000 in bills including the home I live in... Hell, if things turned really bad, i'd actually have to use some of my salary for living expenses. Oh the horror!

Quick, look over here! Look at how great I am! Roberto, if you only knew the kind of lot that many readers on here are carrying. Your Phoenix empire would barely carry the monthly cost for a regular 2bd condo in many metro areas. Give it a rest. Go help your students skip a grade. That would be more honorable than calling people names over and over on this site.

bmwman91 says

MsBennet says

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!

touche

robertoaribas says

I teach college not grade school

Jr College :)

When did this become a censored forum?

I did none of those things. I had a dispute with one other user.

You are the one responding and saying censorship is ok with you.

I am betting you would change your toon if you got deleted.

Funny a liberal fighting for censorship.

Free Speech 1
Duckface 0

yup1 says

Sounds a little like church.

Or the tea party

robertoaribas says

I do not mark insulting names or words at me as spam, because i don't care about insults. I do mark calling me a liar as spam, because unless someone cares to back it up with facts, in any other non anonymous forum that would be considered libel, and thus I don't think it should be tolerated here.

If you don't consider your linked blog having posts by you saying

Evidence piling up that the Phoenix Arizona Housing Market is in big trouble.
Posted on September 16, 2010

Why am I still bearish, when there has been good news on some housing fronts?
Posted on October 16, 2010 by robertoaribas

and here is you Oct 31 2012 post
You gave Phoenix as an example. I have 3 condos under contract today, that are selling at 80%+ off of peak prices. They are not even in the worst areas, though certainly not luxury. 30K for a 3/2 2 car garage 1450 square feet, near metro rail and freeways... rents for $800. This isn't 2000 pricing, this isn't 1990 pricing, this is NEVER pricing, they sold new for 60's in 1982.

Told your blog followers you are a bear on Oct 16, 2010.
Told this forum you are in contract to buy Oct 31, 2010.

Maybe it isn't a lie, it is pretty damn close.

So you are basically saying that from Oct 16, 2010 to Oct 31, 2010 you went from being a "bear" to being in contract to buy. Holy F*** that is one massive change of heart, mind, and soul.

I noticed you did not tell your blog of your actions until Aug 17, 2012. Of course you even told half truths at that time "Full disclosure, I began buying properties 18 months ago" That is a half truth because you actually started on Oct 31, 2010 not in March 2011 like you claim.

Now you come on hear and toot your own horn on a hourly basis.

And now robertoaribas will promptly meltdown, start calling me names, and cry to Patrick to have me banned. Even though I have not called him a liar, and have backed up his statements with his own statements. How did you put it

robertoaribas says

because unless someone cares to back it up with facts

Backed it up with facts! In fact in your own words.......

yup1 says

So you are basically saying that from Oct 16, 2010 to Oct 31, 2010 you went from being a "bear" to being in contract to buy. Holy F*** that is one massive change of heart, mind, and soul.

I noticed you did not tell your blog of your actions until Aug 17, 2012. Of course you even told half truths at that time "Full disclosure, I began buying properties 18 months ago" That is a half truth because you actually started on Oct 31, 2010 not in March 2011 like you claim.

Now you come on hear and toot your own horn on a hourly basis.

And there you have it no response from robertoaribas!

yup1 says

And now robertoaribas will promptly meltdown, start calling me names, and cry to Patrick to have me banned.

Looks like you did as predicted, again.....

robertoaribas says

obsessive little bitch ass

robertoaribas says

A smarter person than you

robertoaribas says

Now, I know your blind rage at me, or perhaps your general nature precludes much in the way of thinking.

robertoaribas says

Now, I know since you have your proctology headlite on, and are attempting to look straight up my rectum

robertoaribas says

You are extremely jealous of me, and will go to obsessive lengths to take me on, on here.

You attempt to weasel out with "I quit my blog" LOL

I wonder home many properties you had when you started posting again on Aug 17, 2012? I am gonna guess you had already purchased ALL of the properties you bought.

You are the equivalent of a wall street slimeball telling his clients to buy the same crap he is selling, and to sell the same crap he is buying. I mean you are selling yourself on your website as a professional.

"Roberto Ribas Realtor and Mathematics Professor.
I’ve been investing and working in real estate for over a decade. My background in mathematics enabled me to see the bubble coming. I have been researching housing bubbles and markets for many years now."

"Phoenix Finance and Home Buying Economics"

Nice advice you gave your readers on your website.

You are Realtard Scum!

yup1 says

My background in mathematics enabled me to see the bubble coming. I have been researching housing bubbles and markets for many years now."

I bet it had nothing to do with math. He was probably reading Dr. Housing Bubble's blog. That blog laid it out very concisely.

yup1 says

You attempt to weasel out with "I quit my blog" LOL

I wonder home many properties you had when you started posting again on Aug 17, 2012? I am gonna guess you had already purchased ALL of the properties you bought.

You are the equivalent of a wall street slimeball telling his clients to buy the same crap he is selling, and to sell the same crap he is buying. I mean you are selling yourself on your website as a professional.

"Roberto Ribas Realtor and Mathematics Professor.
I’ve been investing and working in real estate for over a decade. My background in mathematics enabled me to see the bubble coming. I have been researching housing bubbles and markets for many years now."

"Phoenix Finance and Home Buying Economics"

Nice advice you gave your readers on your website.

You are Realtard Scum!

You are complaining about his insults, and yet, you are also insulting him.
He's given you a perfectly cogent explanation of what he did, including a relevant link, so why are you continuing with this?

Bigsby says

You are complaining about his insults, and yet, you are also insulting him.

I called him Realtard Scum and you consider that an insult? He is a realtard which by definition means he is scum.

robertoaribas says

yup1, here is a link to get you started to dealing with your envy in a more healthy manner.

Why is it you think anyone would be envious of you?

I have no desire to be a slumlord. I have no desire to collect rents from the less fortunate. I have no desire to be a realtard and lead people to the path of debt slavery. I have no desire to be a junior college teacher leading those young minds to a life of debt slavery.

You obviously think very highly of yourself. Maybe you should reconsider.

yup1 says

Bigsby says

You are complaining about his insults, and yet, you are also insulting him.

I called him Realtard Scum and you consider that an insult? He is a realtard which by definition means he is scum.

It's an insult, so quit complaining about being insulted. If you want to dish it out...