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Logan Mohtashami says

in early 2011 from 5% to a low of 3.25% and you didn't see a big rise in demand from MPA

What you saw was a decrease in inventory. What I suspect is that is when big players came into the market place, borrowed at low interest, and built portfolios. Banks were doing the same by pulling properties from auction.

It has driven up prices and banks have been getting more, and more from distressed properties.

Where will it top out? 2014, and the end of the Easing.

David Losh says

What you saw was a decrease in inventory.

So you agree then there was a decrease in inventory for on sale inventory since Middle of 2010

Take a look at week 31 in 2010 and chart it out to now

Logan Mohtashami says

So you agree then there was a decrease in inventory

No, what I'm saying is that the inventory got sold. Sales are steady.

According to this last chart "inventory" is steady also for 2013.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-19/u-s-existing-home-sales-rose-in-october-to-4-79-million-rate.html

and then

new home sales fell:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-28/sales-of-new-homes-in-u-s-fell-0-3-in-october.html

It all adds up to robust market, but it's still a bubble.

The shadow inventory is still there, all the homes built are still there, and we are building alternative choices to housing.

It's all there.

Seriously if you wanted to go for a thread you could say that demand is super high.

• 1,927,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure.

• 1,483,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure.

(Future Inventory) not everyone of these homes will end up in foreclosure or a short sale but most will

• 1,694,000 loans in foreclosure process. ( Shadow)

a href="http://patrick.net/?p=1223313&c=951133#comment-951133">Logan Mohtashami says

• 1,927,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past
due, but not in foreclosure.

• 1,483,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in
foreclosure.

(Future Inventory) not everyone of these homes will end up in foreclosure or
a short sale but most will

• 1,694,000 loans in foreclosure process. ( Shadow)

The inventory that you cannot possibly count, those that have been underwater for years that will sell as soon as they are not upsidedown..............

yup1 says

he inventory that you cannot possibly count, those that have been underwater for years that will sell as soon as they are not upsidedown..............

This is true, 10 million plus homes underwater. However, we can't expect people to put there homes onto the market right when they turn positive. Have to look at after transaction cost. This is why a lot 90-99 LTV homeowners are still in limbo.

Logan Mohtashami says

This is true, 10 million plus homes underwater. However, we can't expect
people to put there homes onto the market right when they turn positive. Have to
look at after transaction cost. This is why a lot 90-99 LTV homeowners are still
in limbo.

True, when they can cover transaction costs they are out.

robertoaribas says

Doesn't matter. they can't sell, except at prices higher than today (or per
your logic, they would be selling today) hence they cannot crash the market, but
merely limit appreciation beyond some price higher than today...

They can short sell, and if it is cheaper to rent they will as their run down shit shack that they have done no maintenance or repairs on in 5 years falls apart around them......

The Professor says

No income qualified you for a loan in 2005.

Yes... back then, pulse, social security number, fico score and you're all set. Thankfully, we are back to reality and DTI now.
Honestly, people should stop crying about lending standards being too tight
http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/09/26/stop-crying-about-lending-standards/

Logan Mohtashami says

The Professor says

No income qualified you for a loan in 2005.

Yes... back then, pulse, social security number, fico score and you're all set. Thankfully, we are back to reality and DTI now.

Honestly, people should stop crying about lending standards being too tight

http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/09/26/stop-crying-about-lending-standards/

Why do you hate poor people? RACIST!

Why do you hate poor people? RACIST!

In that context, I never want to see poor people buy a home ever if they don't have the capacity to own the debt. This is why I took a shot at Bernanke on Bloomberg with his crazy talk that lending standards are too tight even though FHA and Fannie Mae have programs out there with 3 and 3.5% down

http://loganmohtashami.com/2013/03/27/will-be-on-bloomberg-financial-talking-about-bernankes-myth-on-tight-lending-standards-the-real-housing-story/

yup1 says

True, when they can cover transaction costs they are out.

yup1 says

They can short sell, and if it is cheaper to rent they will as their run down
shit shack that they have done no maintenance or repairs on in 5 years falls
apart around them......

This is heavily dependent on the local housing market. Take the house I am renting now as an example, I knew the owner wanted to sell the house because we had some discussions. But he decided to keep renting it b/c I knew he did not feel like he could get the price he wanted. The rent covers his PTIT though and he bought the house in 2004. I believe there are markets that prices have been back to 2003-2004 level but not many of them. Also, even when that happens, I can see price leveling off or even decaying a bit but I do not see a national collapse. I am more worrying about the Europe and the US job market rather than the housing market.

Experts Warn About An 'Outbreak Of Delayed Foreclosures Down The Road'

More recent foreclosure prevention efforts in other states have drastically increased the average time to foreclose, which could result in a similar outbreak of delayed foreclosures down the road in those states."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/foreclosure-starts-rise-for-second-month-2013-4#ixzz2QjXcTESL

http://www.businessinsider.com/foreclosure-starts-rise-for-second-month-2013-4

The Faster we can get the zombie homes out the better in the long run. 5.1 million homes in delinquency and foreclosure is a lot inventory. Time to let the zombie homes die.

However, following the trend it will be a slow timed release to maximize the current marketplace

Logan Mohtashami says

However, following the trend it will be a slow timed release to maximize the current marketplace

Cali has always been known for being trendy, so the banks are finally starting to learn the ins and outs of the home owners bill of rights and "weez be seein a new trend..."

California Foreclosure Starts Up 73% Since January
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/california-foreclosue-starts-up-73-year-to-date-2013-04-12

We have the new Home owners Bill of Rights act here in CA, it will be interesting to see how it plays out by the end of the year on time frame of the foreclosure process

David Losh says

That household formation is kind of contrary to the claim we have an aging
population that isn't productive. Do you see immigration in there some
place?

Don't know what's going on in coastal cities. But here we are still very productive in terms of generating heirs. 2+ children averagely for a family. Even when I was on east coast a few years ago, 2 or more children was common. Immigrants definitely play a role but our domestic reproducing rate isn't so bad either.

Logan Mohtashami says

interesting to see how it plays out by the end of the year

With California Foreclosure Starts Up 73% Since January, IT'S getting interesting over here already ...

Getting to market and sold is the final confirmation for me, from what I was seeing it took 12 months from NOD filing to finally foreclosure the home.

At the end of the year you can see how long the start to finish process takes. CA was much better than New York ... New York was pushing 1,000 plus days to foreclosure and CA was running in 300's.

Logan Mohtashami says

Getting to market and sold is the final confirmation for me, from what I was seeing it took 12 months from NOD filing to finally foreclosure the home.

Exactly the case, if they don't get a move on ...they'll be up to their eyeballs with a delinquency dilemma

Mobi says

Don't know what's going on in coastal cities. But here we are still very
productive in terms of generating heirs. 2+ children averagely for a family.
Even when I was on east coast a few years ago, 2 or more children was common.
Immigrants definitely play a role but our domestic reproducing rate isn't so bad
either.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/03/14/u-s-birth-rates-remain-depressed/

Birthrate down 8.3% from peak, so I guess our domestic reproduction rate is miserable......

yup1 says

Birthrate down 8.3% from peak, so I guess our domestic reproduction rate is miserable......

http://www.youtube.com/embed/9GarNrJklUw

Bigbubbabear says

Exactly the case, if they don't get a move on ...they'll be up to their eyeballs with a delinquency dilemma

AMEN... When already have twice as many delinquent loans to shadow inventory and this has been the case for a while now.

yup1 says

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/03/14/u-s-birth-rates-remain-depressed/

Birthrate down 8.3% from peak, so I guess our domestic reproduction rate is
miserable......

Totally understand. It has to be miserable in the last few years. If it becomes a trend, we will be in trouble.

However, we were talking about current house formation rate and it may or may not have anything to do with current birth rate.

robertoaribas says

see you in several months, as prices continue to climb.

Prices for sure are going up this year, there just isn't enough inventory coming to market fast enough. You would need a 2010 inventory but in a much bigger fashion since 2011 and 2012 were just awful years. Not going to get enough traditional and distress homes this year. Home builders aren't building enough SFR homes to make a major impact