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Study: Tech Worker Shortage a Myth


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2013 Apr 25, 1:00am   55,659 views  310 comments

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If there’s one thing that everyone can agree on in Washington, it’s that the country has a woeful shortage of workers trained in science, technology, engineering and math — what’s referred to as STEM.

President Obama has said that improving STEM education is one of his top priorities. Chief executives regularly come through Washington complaining that they can’t find qualified American workers for openings at their firms that require a science background. And armed with this argument in the debate over immigration policy, lobbyists are pushing hard for more temporary work visas, known as H-1Bs, which they say are needed to make up for the lack of Americans with STEM skills.

But not everyone agrees. A study released Wednesday by the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute reinforces what a number of researchers have come to believe: that the STEM worker shortage is a myth.

The EPI study found that the United States has “more than a sufficient supply of workers available to work in STEM occupations.” Basic dynamics of supply and demand would dictate that if there were a domestic labor shortage, wages should have risen. Instead, researchers found, they’ve been flat, with many Americans holding STEM degrees unable to enter the field and a sharply higher share of foreign workers taking jobs in the information technology industry. (IT jobs make up 59 percent of the STEM workforce, according to the study.)

The answer to whether there is a shortage of such workers has important ramifications for the immigration bill. If it exists, then there’s an urgency that justifies allowing companies to bring more foreign workers into the country, usually on a short-term H-1B visa. But those who oppose such a policy argue that companies want more of these visas mainly because H-1B workers are paid an estimated 20 percent less than their American counterparts. Why allow these companies to hire more foreign workers for less, the critics argue, when there are plenty of Americans who are ready to work?

The EPI study said that while the overall number of U.S. students who earn STEM degrees is small — a fact that many lawmakers and the news media have seized on — it’s more important to focus on what happens to these students after they graduate. According to the study, they have a surprisingly hard time finding work. Only half of the students graduating from college with a STEM degree are hired into a STEM job, the study said.

“Even in engineering,” the authors said, “U.S. colleges have historically produced about 50 percent more graduates than are hired into engineering jobs each year.”

The picture is not that bright for computer science students, either. “For computer science graduates employed one year after graduation . . . about half of those who took a job outside of IT say they did so because the career prospects were better elsewhere, and roughly a third because they couldn’t find a job in IT,” the study said.

While liberal arts graduates might be used to having to look for jobs with only tenuous connections to their majors, the researchers said this shouldn’t be the case for graduates with degrees attached to specific skills such as engineering.

The tech industry has said that it needs more H-1B visas in order to hire the “best and the brightest,” regardless of their citizenship. Yet the IT industry seems to have a surprisingly low bar for education. The study found that among IT workers, 36 percent do not have a four-year college degree. Among the 64 percent who do have diplomas, only 38 percent have a computer science or math degree.

The bipartisan immigration plan introduced last week by the so-called Gang of Eight senators would raise the number of H-1B visas, though it would limit the ability of outsourcing firms to have access to them. Tech companies such as Facebook and Microsoft have fought hard to distinguish themselves from these outsourcing companies, arguing that unlike firms such as Wipro, they’re looking for the best people, not just ones who will work for less.

But some worry that the more H-1Bs allowed into the system, the more domestic workers get crowded out, resulting in what no one appears to want: fewer American students seeing much promise in entering STEM fields.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/study-there-may-not-be-a-shortage-of-american-stem-graduates-after-all/2013/04/24/66099962-acea-11e2-a8b9-2a63d75b5459_story.html

#politics

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234   Dan8267   2013 May 4, 6:20am  

gsr says

Are you saying anyone H1bs are not productive? That's damn prejudiced view point you have.

It's not prejudicial when you have worked with hundreds of them and post-judge them based on their performance.

Guess what, software developments is like the Olympics. In order to be good, you have to start training at five. It's not some lame ass job anyone can do like finance, law, politics, or management where you can "just decide" what you want to do when freshman year of college. Software development is more than a career choice, it's a lifestyle.

A person growing up in the third world, not even having electricity most of his life, isn't going to blossom into a good software developer in four years. To grow software developers, you need to raise them on computers, access to lots of educational material, time to study (which means not spending time working on a farm, factory, etc.).

In other words, for H1-B Visas to work, they'd have to come from countries that are developed by definition. And if the Visa holders did come from developed countries, they would not be cheap. That's the whole reason why H1-B Visas don't do shit. Eventually, China and India will become developed nations and be capable of producing good STEM workers. The nanosecond that happens, every corporations will look elsewhere for labor.

Are you really so dumb that you cannot see the inherit conflict between the goals of dirt-cheap labor and of high-tech skills? It's fucking obvious. You can pick one or the other, but not both. Everything else is irrelevant including any racial bullshit you want to add as a red herring. Only developed countries with high labor wages can produce good STEM workers.

235   Rin   2013 May 4, 6:21am  

Dan8267 says

gsr says

Only hard work creates wealth, and that creates real productive jobs.

Are you claiming that the American STEM workers aren't working hard? That's bullshit. I pull 70 hour weeks regularly and I'm damn productive.

And that's just it Dan, I refuse to do 70+ hr weeks for ungrateful employers anymore. So us STEM refugees (the ones who've escaped) are lazy because for one, we expect our time/energy to be valued, as oppose to accepting some corporatist Marines credo of doing what it takes, so that some crony VP of delivery gets all the credit for being a d*ck.

236   Dan8267   2013 May 4, 6:27am  

gsr says

Netflix has cause loss of jobs of video store clerks. Manufacturing has been returning to the country, but with mostly robots, as they are cheaper than humans anywhere.

That's a race to the bottom as well according to you? Damn you are confused.

Automation and outsourcing are not even remotely related. Software developers have always automated themselves out of a job. That's progress. But the onward trek of technological advancement cannot be automated. That's why the engineer is always important.

Outsourcing and H1-B Visas are not about automation, increasing the pool of skilled labor, meeting some labor shortage, or looking for the best talent. It's about selling off the most important Intellectual Property a society can possess: intelligent, knowledgeable engineers.

Fools like you have no idea how much effort it takes to produce a single, good engineer. It takes decades of intense labor, learning, effort, and sacrifice. All that is lost when society decides that slave labor makes economic sense. It never has, and it never will. Worst still, without a continuum from one generation to the next, the essential skills and culture of engineering and the pathways to building an engineering career can and are being lost. Once lost, those things can never be recovered. They would have to be rebuilt from scratch and doing that is many orders of magnitude more expensive than maintaining that continuum. Outsourcing and H1-B Visas fuck up the STEM labor pool for many generations even after those activities stop.

237   Dan8267   2013 May 4, 6:34am  

New Renter says

gsr says

Dan8267 says

Are you claiming that the American STEM workers aren't working hard? That's bullshit. I pull 70 hour weeks regularly and I'm damn productive.

Are you saying anyone H1bs are not productive? That's damn prejudiced view point you have. Many people are productive. The world is competitive.

And again you are trying to turn this into an immigrant bash fest.

Yes, obviously gsr is trying to use a Straw Man argument and a red herring that being against outsourcing and H1-B Visas is racist. Of course, as has been said many times, race is irrelevant. It's all about the use of 3rd world labor. You take any country that is a source of outsourced labor or H1-B Visas, say India or China, and let those countries transition into fully developed nations and the cost of living and the cost of labor will rise. At that point, all the corporations lying that they need Indian or Chinese labor will stop using labor from those countries and move to some other third-world shithole.

Since gsr has no rational argument to support outsourcing and H1-B Visas, he is resorting to Poisoning the Well with a racist Straw Man argument and hoping that the audience are such idiots that they buy it. If I were a member of the audience, I would be insulted by this attempt.

238   Rin   2013 May 4, 6:35am  

Dan8267 says

Once lost, those things can never be recovered. They would have to be rebuilt from scratch and doing that is many orders of magnitude more expensive than maintaining that continuum. Outsourcing and H1-B Visas fuck up the STEM labor pool for many generations even after those activities stop.

Absolutely true! Once the generation of S&Es from the 60s to the 90s dies off, we'll be a full blown banana republic.

239   Dan8267   2013 May 4, 6:42am  

jaldi1 says

ok got it...we all agree that there is no tech workers shortage at unlimited wage.

You can offer $999 trillion for a cure for cancer. That doesn't mean you'll get one. Sure, they be a shortage of tech workers in an economy. It just so happens that in the economies of the U.S. and Europe, there most certainly isn't.

However, the way to increase the availability of STEM workers is
1. Don't fuck STEM workers. You fuck the workers in ANY industry, you don't get more workers in that industry. How many people major in agriculture or manufacturing?
2. Emphasize STEM subjects in elementary, secondary, and undergraduate, and graduate schooling. You know, like we did in the 1950s when we were scared shitless that the Soviet Union would take us over technologically. The greatest advancement in science and technology in human history resulted from this educational investment and the belief that STEM careers would be good financially and socially.
3. Make sure that STEM careers are good financial and social choices for this generation, and you'll get more STEM workers in the next generation.

It's that fucking simple. STEM industries are not live real estate or maid service. You can't just flutter in and out of STEM industries. They take an enormous commitment in time and effort in order to become even adequate in. It is literally a ten to twenty year barrier to entry. As such, you can't just substitute one cog for another.

240   Dan8267   2013 May 4, 6:44am  

New Renter says

Dan8267 says

What you don't realize is that the Tech Worker Shortage lie is simply a race to the bottom.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"

So very true. Is gsr someone making a profit off of this?

In any case, such willful ignorance may very well lead to the extinction of our species as it causes such catastrophic failure of management as the failure to curtail and control climate change.

241   Rin   2013 May 4, 6:47am  

Dan8267 says

1. Don't fuck STEM workers. You fuck the workers in ANY industry, you don't get more workers in that industry. How many people major in agriculture or manufacturing?

Yes, this one is pay dirt. If you f* with workers, they become like me, angry hedge fund managers.

242   Rin   2013 May 4, 6:49am  

Dan8267 says

since gsr has no rational argument to support outsourcing and H1-B Visas

His argument is that of the Milton Friedman MBA-ologists. A company and its execs can do whatever they want because the market DEMANDS it. It's really that simple.

243   New Renter   2013 May 4, 6:56am  

Rin says

Dan8267 says

1. Don't fuck STEM workers. You fuck the workers in ANY industry, you don't get more workers in that industry. How many people major in agriculture or manufacturing?

Yes, this one is pay dirt. If you f* with workers, they become like me, angry hedge fund managers.

Until of course the barrier to entry is modified to only allow for nepotism

244   New Renter   2013 May 4, 6:56am  

Dan8267 says

So very true. Is gsr someone making a profit off of this?

That's my guess

245   Rin   2013 May 4, 6:59am  

New Renter says

Rin says

Dan8267 says

1. Don't fuck STEM workers. You fuck the workers in ANY industry, you don't get more workers in that industry. How many people major in agriculture or manufacturing?

Yes, this one is pay dirt. If you f* with workers, they become like me, angry hedge fund managers.

Until of course the barrier to entry is modified to only allow for nepotism

Well, no nepotism (so far) but cronyism is alive and well, even where I work; otherwise, my friend and I could have set up this firm on our own.

246   New Renter   2013 May 4, 6:59am  

Rin says

Dan8267 says

1. Don't fuck STEM workers. You fuck the workers in ANY industry, you don't get more workers in that industry. How many people major in agriculture or manufacturing?

Yes, this one is pay dirt. If you f* with workers, they become like me, angry hedge fund managers.

Or they start making ricin.

247   drew_eckhardt   2013 May 4, 7:04am  

Rin says

In all fairness, those who were welcomed during the early 20th century were essentially whites from western or eastern Europe, who'd dropped their parents' native non-English languages, and then became fully Anglo-Saxon-ized in culture. Thus, the American melting pot story was really about the assimilation of various caucasian ethnicities into one composite Anglo-American one.

All of the first generation Chinese, Indians, Iranians, Lebanese, Mexicans, Norwegians, Persians, Russians, Taiwanese, and Vietnamese I've known had English skills in line with native born Americans and accents no more pronounced than those out of British Commonwealth countries like Australia and New Zealand.

With modern communication culture's become globalized. My very American (one grandmother was a Daughter of the American Revolution) sister earned her master's degree at a small Buddhist college. Even my meat-and-potatoes eating father dines on sushi.

Some of those guys have assumptions coming from places with caste systems although that's no different from farther back in history where our ancestors made a bigger deal about the distinction between peasants and royalty.

The biggest remaining difference is skin color.

As for what's a fair STEM salary, let's first get the postdocs into real jobs (thus, accepting the fact that they won't ALL have 6+ years of Oracle PL/SQL [ or whatever aberrant reqs are ] on their resume) and then, we'll see where the barometer falls.

Although one of the top three engineers I've worked with had a PhD I've found a disproportionate number of PhD holders' performance in the bottom half of the bell curve and wouldn't bet on post-docs' employability.

Doing research where a paper is the product (and things like software only need to work well enough to finish that) is very different from building products and viable businesses around them.

I remain undecided where the causality lies - aptitudes which lend themselves more to the demands of an academic environment than commercial, interests which tend to run more deep and less broad, and/or being used to a community where peoples' academic credentials carry more weight than their ideas.

248   Dan8267   2013 May 4, 7:08am  

Rin says

Absolutely true! Once the generation of S&Es from the 60s to the 90s dies off, we'll be a full blown banana republic.

Unfortunately, this is already happening. I'm a second generation computer-related engineer. My father as a computer engineer working on mainframes (all hardware stuff, gate logic, etc.). I'm a software engineer. All of my siblings are in STEM as well: another software engineer, a bio-chemist, and a doctor. Yet, I'm pretty sure that there won't be a third generation of STEM in the software area.

My two sisters, the bio-chemist and the doctor, are in fields that cannot be outsourced because of laws. They might produce a third generation of STEM workers, but I wouldn't encourage any future children of mine or theirs to go into software or any STEM field being outsourced or open to H1-B Visas.

So you see, my family is a perfect example of that break in the chain of producing engineers. And I'm pretty sure that we are just one of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of such examples.

The economic policies of today have dire consequences generations from now, long after the short-term profits have been spent.

Rin says

Dan8267 says

1. Don't fuck STEM workers. You fuck the workers in ANY industry, you don't get more workers in that industry. How many people major in agriculture or manufacturing?

Yes, this one is pay dirt. If you f* with workers, they become like me, angry hedge fund managers.

There is an even bigger issue than that. Yes, everyone tries to find something to do for a living that they enjoy. However, ultimately people choose careers that pay well and are stable. They do this because there are things outside your career that are more important in life, like starting a family and being able to afford a home and health care and being financially stable.

This means that those who channel capital, rightfully or not, have an enormous influence on how our society spends its most precious resource, its human capital. Right now the best mathematicians are being used to play zero-sum financial games that produce absolutely no wealth, yet cost wealth to play, and at best benefits some people at a equal or greater cost to others. This is a complete waste of mathematical talent that could be used to advance knowledge and technology, both of which have direct benefits to society. It is hugely wasteful to use mathematical talent on zero-sum financial games.

Rin says

His argument is that of the Milton Friedman MBA-ologists. A company and its execs can do whatever they want because the market DEMANDS it. It's really that simple.

Markets are complex systems. What maximizes economic profit for an individual company can and does lower economic profit for that company when other companies follow suite. Choices that have short-term benefits, have much larger long-term costs. Simple rules lead to disastrous outcomes. Those Milton Friedman MBA-oligists, as you call them, need to read On the Logic of Failure.

249   Rin   2013 May 4, 7:26am  

Dan8267 says

my family is a perfect example of that break in the chain of producing engineers. And I'm pretty sure that we are just one of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of such examples.

Same here, my grandfather was a NE fisherman. And then, as the family transitioned into late 20th century work, my dad was a structural engineer, and then I was an applied chemist/ITer for a short while. My only hope is to later become a doctor and then, pursue research on the side w/o needing to draw a salary from it. I wouldn't expect the same type of dedication to an ideal, from my nieces or cousins.

Dan8267 says

This means that those who channel capital, rightfully or not, have an enormous influence on how our society spends its most precious resource, its human capital. Right now the best mathematicians are being used to play zero-sum financial games that produce absolutely no wealth, yet cost wealth to play, and at best benefits some people at a equal or greater cost to others. This is a complete waste of mathematical talent that could be used to advance knowledge and technology, both of which have direct benefits to society. It is hugely wasteful to use mathematical talent on zero-sum financial games.

Yes, this is what's happened. And what's sad is that ultimately, the prop traders see those geniuses as *tools*. In the end, the big trades are still discretionary ones and technicians are always looked down upon in financial services. The fact that the industry now has the ability to hire/fire, regardless of the better suited talents of their staff, has resulted in a social engineering phenomena of devaluating technology workers & making work, in itself, a joke.

250   mell   2013 May 4, 7:39am  

New Renter says

mell says

If you lived in the bay area and have a decent tech background then you'd know that the tech worker shortage is not a myth.

I DO live in the SFBA, I DO have a decent background in tech and based on MY firsthand experience as a scientist in this market I can say with some authority that as far as the S in STEM is concerned yes, the "shortage" is 100% complete and utter bullshit.

I agree except for at the "rockstar" level, which is sadly becoming the norm and everyone has a slightly different understanding of what that entails. Are you saying you are looking for work? If so, I may be able to refer you more than you wish for ;)

251   gsr   2013 May 4, 7:47am  

Dan8267 says

It's not prejudicial when you have worked with hundreds of them and post-judge them based on their performance.

Of course you are. The above statement describes the generality that you believe in.

Dan8267 says

A person growing up in the third world, not even having electricity most of his life, isn't going to blossom into a good software developer in four years.

Which world do you live? Do you even work in tech to make this kinda stupid statements? There were a lot of talented engineers from all over the world. They made a big dent in Silicon Valley.
Many of them founded big companies, like Sun Microsystems.
Grow up.

Dan8267 says

such willful ignorance may very well lead to the extinction of our species

What species are you referring to? Humans or a specific type of humans?

252   gsr   2013 May 4, 7:51am  

drew_eckhardt says

Doing research where a paper is the product (and things like software only need to work well enough to finish that) is very different from building products and viable businesses around them.

This is the biggest problem. The research funding from NSF particularly, don't care about this.

253   New Renter   2013 May 4, 8:48am  

mell says

Are you saying you are looking for work? If so, I may be able to refer you more than you wish for ;)

Yes, I am. Got anything in the South Bay?

254   mell   2013 May 4, 12:29pm  

New Renter says

mell says

Are you saying you are looking for work? If so, I may be able to refer you more than you wish for ;)

Yes, I am. Got anything in the South Bay?

Yes, they are all over the bay area - if you send me a message with your email address and maybe one or two line of skills I will send the recruiters your way when it looks like it could be a match (I usually get one or two direct recruiter or hiring manager requests a week and can forward you some of the most recent ones).

255   thomaswong.1986   2013 May 4, 2:04pm  

drew_eckhardt says

One (senior) software engineer's salary still effectively does the trick in Sunnyvale within comfortable bicycling distance of jobs between Redwood City and San Jose which pretty much covers Silicon Valley (in which 41% of 2011 American venture capital was spent) for software purposes.

VC money spent goes to Company where the SW engineer is 50% of the time outside of SFBA. And that percentage is increasing infavor our outside of SV every years as prices go up. You can go to any company jobs/career web site and see the majority of R&D is NOT being spent here. BTW, get over the highly paid engineering shit... Sales people make alot more than engineers by a long shot.

256   New Renter   2013 May 4, 2:09pm  

mell says

New Renter says

mell says

Are you saying you are looking for work? If so, I may be able to refer you more than you wish for ;)

Yes, I am. Got anything in the South Bay?

Yes, they are all over the bay area - if you send me a message with your email address and maybe one or two line of skills I will send the recruiters your way when it looks like it could be a match (I usually get one or two direct recruiter or hiring manager requests a week and can forward you some of the most recent ones).

Done! Thanks!

257   Dan8267   2013 May 4, 5:58pm  

gsr says

Dan8267 says

It's not prejudicial when you have worked with hundreds of them and post-judge them based on their performance.

Of course you are. The above statement describes the generality that you believe in.

Nominated for the most asinine, self-contradicting statement ever made on PatNet.

It's like trying to argue that a jury is prejudicial if they reach a guilty verdict after hearing all the evidence in a fair trial.

gsr says

Dan8267 says

such willful ignorance may very well lead to the extinction of our species

What species are you referring to? Humans or a specific type of humans?

I'm starting to notice a pattern. All irrational race-baiters are themselves extreme racists. It reminds me of how all anti-gay Republicans end up having gay sex scandals. Is that irony or just hypocrisy?

258   Rin   2013 May 4, 11:57pm  

New Renter says

Yes, I am. Got anything in the South Bay?

New Renter, I know I'm now a broken record [a metaphor for the last of the 20th century types], but if you still have the gumption, please take the Patent Bar/Agent exam, and try to get out of direct S&E work before it's too late.

So while you'll most likely get through the current job search, etc, at some point in time, father time will catch 'em with you and then, you'll be stuck doing documentation, until that group also gets sent abroad.

Patent agent work cannot be offshored. It's got a legal tether stateside and only US citizens, neither H1-Bs or Green Card holders, can sit for the test. And you don't have to attend law school, if you're not working litigation or giving legal counsel. Typically, even USPTO workers do the law school thing, part-time, to enhance their resumes.

259   Rin   2013 May 5, 1:12am  

gsr says

drew_eckhardt says

Doing research where a paper is the product (and things like software only need to work well enough to finish that) is very different from building products and viable businesses around them.

This is the biggest problem. The research funding from NSF particularly, don't care about this.

Ok, so in your ideal world, who is suppose to fund basic sciences research, if not the NSF, DoE, DoD, or NIH?

Last I'd checked, pure R&D places like ATT/Lucent Bell Labs were shutdown.

And then, when Bill Gates got into the action, MS Research had also gone nowhere, as he poo-poo-ed the first tablets, since they didn't promote the Windows solution as an end all.

Sure, a person like myself, independently wealthy in 10 years, can do his own sort of R&D, pro bono like a Maxwell or a Darwin of prior centuries, but the rest of the scientists out there, need to pull an income from somewhere.

Is Elon Musk your answer? Do S&Es now need to live under his billionaire largesse, like the renaissance men did to noblemen sponsors, ala DaVinci or Goethe? Are we basically going backwards in time now?

260   gsr   2013 May 5, 3:00am  

Rin says

Ok, so in your ideal world, who is suppose to fund basic sciences research, if not the NSF, DoE, DoD, or NIH?

Ideally, we would really like to have collaborative work with industries. It should be encouraged. It happens in Japan quite a bit. Moreover, their research focuses more on improving people's lives, as opposed to building more missiles and drones.

These days, DARPA guys seemed to have become more strict. They want real products, in shorter time-frame so that they can transfer the technology quickly. Many profs complain about this. But IMHO, this is a step in the right direction.

Bell Labs were shutdown due to their on follies. MS research seems to be going in that direction. But look at others, as Google. One company falls, and other comes to take it over. Creative destruction is a part of the game.

I have a PhD in CE. I know the difference between the work as a research assistant and work in industry. It was an eye-opener for me.

I could have become a quant if I had wanted to. Many of my friends did. I decided to stay in core tech purely because my passion, not because of money. I definitely do not earn 700k figure that you posted. But whatever I earn is decent and nice. I do want to earn more, which means more work, and less involvement in whining discussions on the internet.

261   gsr   2013 May 5, 3:19am  

Dan8267 says

It's like trying to argue that a jury is prejudicial if they reach a guilty verdict after hearing all the evidence in a fair trial.

A prejudiced person has one particular view of the world. He/she sees what he/she wants to see, and does not see what he/she does not want to see. In other words, that person is not open minded, he/she only seeks examples that validates his/her mind.

In any case, its ok to be prejudiced and ignorant. Being prejudiced is not a crime. In this country, you have the freedom to be that way. I support that freedom.

262   gsr   2013 May 5, 3:22am  

Rin says

but the rest of the scientists out there, need to pull an income from somewhere.

Trust me, it is a lot easier to get VC money in this country than anywhere else. That's why entrepreneurs from all over the world come here.

263   Dan8267   2013 May 5, 4:21am  

gsr says

In any case, its ok to be prejudiced and ignorant. Being prejudiced is not a crime. In this country, you have the freedom to be that way. I support that freedom.

What a (not-so) subtle way of accusing me of bigotry. You must think you're clever, but a clever person would have actually read my history of posts before saying something so easily dismissed by any regular reader.

Of course, like all trolls, while making unfounded personal attacks against your opponents, you completely ignore all the logical counterarguments that disprove your faulty position. For example, on this thread...

[comment broken into parts due to link limit]

264   Dan8267   2013 May 5, 4:22am  

1. Dan8267 says

Pass a law requiring that every H-1B Visa worker must be paid at least $200,000 in year 2000 dollars adjusted for M3. Do this and no fucking CEO will complain about a shortage of American workers.

2. Dan8267 says

Companies aren't looking for better talent; they are accepting far inferior talent in order to pay employees far less.

3. thunderlips11 says

There are five powerful, objective measures of a STEM Glut:

4. Dan8267 says

the U.S. is experiencing the largest brain drain in human history. Why the hell would someone study the most difficult subject matters when there will be no paying jobs when you graduate?

5. Dan8267 says

What you don't realize is that the Tech Worker Shortage lie is simply a race to the bottom. A race to burn the nation's economic infrastructure and to sell the scrap at rock bottom prices. A few will make a profit on this, but ultimately productivity will plummet as a result.

265   Dan8267   2013 May 5, 4:22am  

6. Dan8267 says

I pull 70 hour weeks regularly and I'm damn productive.

It is precisely the hard work of STEM workers that create wealth. Replace that with economic slave labor and you won't get the same wealth generation. This has already been empirically proved.

7. Dan8267 says

Furthermore, the decrease in wages and employment will reduce consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity. Gee, what's going to happen to all that economic activity as all jobs are shipped to third world countries? Outsourcing may be good in the short run for a company, unless of course, all other companies are also doing it. Then it's the Tragedy of the Commons and no one will by the company's product because all other companies have laid off the prospective customers.

Outsourcing is a far greater "vicious circle" than saving could ever be.

8. Dan8267 says

software developments is like the Olympics. In order to be good, you have to start training at five. It's not some lame ass job anyone can do like finance, law, politics, or management where you can "just decide" what you want to do when freshman year of college. Software development is more than a career choice, it's a lifestyle.

9. Dan8267 says

A person growing up in the third world, not even having electricity most of his life, isn't going to blossom into a good software developer in four years. To grow software developers, you need to raise them on computers, access to lots of educational material, time to study (which means not spending time working on a farm, factory, etc.).

Often referred to as the 10,000 hour rule, although 20,000 hours seems more accurate.

10. Dan8267 says

Eventually, China and India will become developed nations and be capable of producing good STEM workers. The nanosecond that happens, every corporations will look elsewhere for labor.

266   Dan8267   2013 May 5, 4:22am  

11. Dan8267 says

Automation and outsourcing are not even remotely related. Software developers have always automated themselves out of a job. That's progress. But the onward trek of technological advancement cannot be automated. That's why the engineer is always important.

12. Dan8267 says

Worst still, without a continuum from one generation to the next, the essential skills and culture of engineering and the pathways to building an engineering career can and are being lost.

13. Dan8267 says

Make sure that STEM careers are good financial and social choices for this generation, and you'll get more STEM workers in the next generation.

14. Dan8267 says

So you see, my family is a perfect example of that break in the chain of producing engineers. And I'm pretty sure that we are just one of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of such examples.

15. Dan8267 says

The economic policies of today have dire consequences generations from now, long after the short-term profits have been spent.

16. Dan8267 says

Markets are complex systems. What maximizes economic profit for an individual company can and does lower economic profit for that company when other companies follow suite. Choices that have short-term benefits, have much larger long-term costs. Simple rules lead to disastrous outcomes. Those Milton Friedman MBA-oligists, as you call them, need to read On the Logic of Failure.

267   Dan8267   2013 May 5, 4:23am  

Poisoning the well while ignoring the actual arguments in a debate is the sign of a weak, unjustifiable position.

268   New Renter   2013 May 5, 5:49am  

gsr says

I have a PhD in CE. I know the difference between the work as a research assistant and work in industry. It was an eye-opener for me.

Yes it is.

The reason is multifold.

1) Graduate students are paid very little and are tenured to their program. They often have to teach as well as perform research. In my program most of us had to take external jobs to make ends meet. This reduces the amount of time available for original research which by its nature is very time intensive. This is part of the reason what used to be a 4-5 year degree now takes 7 years to life to achieve.

The results bar in academia is low because its original research. Most original research ends in failure. Failure is considered a learning experience but failures cannot be published, patented or made into a product. Industry does not do so much original research anymore because of this - they simply commercialize the occasional success of academic labs.

When workers are cheap they are not valued. Advisors are perfectly willing to let their students flounder because of their teaching contribution. The department also makes money if the department is funded based on headcount. At that point quantity trumps quality.

In industry workers are (more) expensive. That means management is under more pressure to utilize them to the best of their ability. If a worker runs into difficulty a good boss will bend over backwards to help out. This does happen in academia as well but its less common.

269   Rin   2013 May 5, 6:42am  

gsr says

I definitely do not earn 700k figure that you posted.

Part of what a lot of STEM workers don't understand about compensation in finance is that when you're a member of the management team, you get a slice of the profit/loss statement.

Our two star prop traders earn in the millions. In effect, they are the money making machines and the rest of us, the beneficiaries of their contributions. But being on the starting team, I'm also relatively high up on the food chain. Our secretary, being the public face of the firm, earns a base salary of $45K & has been getting $40-$50K bonuses, as a result of her presentation style. Since we're paying her MS tuition, I suspect she won't be leaving any time soon and will probably exit, as a Patent Agent, when the time is right.

I'm hoping that ppl can see what I'm hinting at. In finance, it's about measured gambling (prop trading w/ or w/o the assistance of quants), sales (corralling client monies), and attitude (we're all New Englanders and are good with money & time; just look at our secretary, doing a science masters part-time, & is brilliant).

In contrast, had I stayed in applied chemistry, I would have never known the above. And I suspect that by experiencing the above, our secretary will never choose STEM work for herself.

270   gsr   2013 May 5, 6:53am  

New Renter says

Graduate students are paid very little and are tenured to their program. They often have to teach as well as perform research. In my program most of us had to take external jobs to make ends meet. This reduces the amount of time available for original research which by its nature is very time intensive. This is part of the reason what used to be a 4-5 year degree now takes 7 years to life to achieve.

It really depends on the location. I understand it would be tough in the west coast. With the RA, my living standard was pretty comfortable for one person. I had a colleague from Mexico who was married with two kids. He was doing ok as well. This is a real story.

New Renter says

The results bar in academia is low because its original research. Most original research ends in failure.

I was not referring to the quality of research, rather the quality of the end product. The quality of research may be great.

But the students don't really have the exposure on how to build a viable "bug-free" product, how to handle error conditions, how to handle a customer problem with the product. They are undervalued in the academia. I know this is a great generalization. But it is true, unless the software starts being used by people outside the domain of the specific student.

Ideally, I would say a each grad student should attempt to start his/her own startup, and become the "nerd-in-chief" there. I know it is easier to be said than done. Otherwise, working for a startup is the best way to learn, and have more flexibility in applying one's own ideas. Once the product matures, it becomes a lot harder to apply those learned skills.

To be honest, I have been seeing a lot of emails from recruiters. I know Mell has already done this. But feel free to message me as well if you would like.

271   gsr   2013 May 5, 6:57am  

Rin says

I'm hoping that ppl can see what I'm hinting at. In finance, it's about measured gambling

No, I fully agree with you about the problem you mentioned. I don't think many disagrees with that. They get bailed out as well. I simply do not agree with the solution that you think would fix the problem.

I am also fairly optimistic that in ten years from now, it would change. There is a big bubble in finance overall. And it is simply not sustainable without artificial stimulus, as it piggybacks on the productivity of other sectors.

272   gsr   2013 May 5, 7:11am  

Dan8267 says

9. Dan8267 says

A person growing up in the third world, not even having electricity most of his life, isn't going to blossom into a good software developer in four years. To grow software developers, you need to raise them on computers, access to lots of educational material, time to study (which means not spending time working on a farm, factory, etc.).

Often referred to as the 10,000 hour rule, although 20,000 hours seems more accurate.

First, you have no idea how much access people have to resources outside the country. Computer science is an abstract science, like Mathematics. It has nothing to do big machines.

Also, using your logic, no one could ever succeed from a poorer upbringing.

And the rule you cite is mostly applicable for skills that need constant practice. A smarter person can pick up things pretty quickly. Even in the case of music, the rule has been debunked.

273   New Renter   2013 May 5, 10:34am  

gsr says

It really depends on the location. I understand it would be tough in the west coast. With the RA, my living standard was pretty comfortable for one person. I had a colleague from Mexico who was married with two kids. He was doing ok as well. This is a real story.

My stipend was $15,6k gross income in San Diego, not exactly a low cost of living area. I had to earn that with 13.3 hrs/wk of teaching which worked out to at least double that with the non-contact hours work (grading, class prep and whatnot) involved. The only way to make ends meet was to:

1) Have a spouse/significant other with a "real" job
2) Family support
3) Become a "road warrior" teaching part time at various community colleges.

(Sorry Dan, assless chaps were not an accepted part of the dress code)

For a while the idea of a new "Industrial Ph.D." program was considered. The idea was for candidates to do their research in an industrial setting. I loved the idea but it never went anywhere. I'm not surprised. The existence of such a program is a direct threat to a university's cheap labor pool.

It took a fight but I eventually got out. When I did I found I had NO support from my university. NONE. When I spoke with my dean about it he rather coldly told me it was the responsibility of one's advisor to provide such support. Mine didn't. It wasn't just myself, none of my colleagues were provided any support either unless for a post-doc and even that was hard to get. Industry recruiters were conspicuously absent.

Still with a Ph.D. in a STEM field one would think an industry job would be easy to find. WRONG! At a meeting of the American Chemical Society I found at that time most new graduates could expect to spend 6 months or more to land their first job. This was when the myth of the STEM shortage was still going strong.

After relocating to the SFBA It took me a YEAR AND A HALF to land my first industry job. Remember this is one of the tech powerhouse hubs. My first job was at a pay rate equivalent to that of a senior R.A.

Remember the whole point of this thread is to debate whether there is such a dire shortage of STEM workers that a larger numbers of graduates holding advanced degrees in STEM fields should be permitted.

gsr says

I guess an individual who goes through hardships at some point in his/her life understands better that a job is not an entitlement. And individual who does not struggle ever in life does not understand that. It is as true as the law of gravity. You or I or the government can't change that.

I hope now you can understand now why I say the “STEM shortage” is complete and utter bunk, at least as far as the “S” is concerned.

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