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New Renter
2013 May 6, 12:00pm
Depends on what you define as shortage or qualified worker ?
Well now I think you've hit the nail on the head.
Qualified can mean anything from a full Ivy league education in Nobel laureate labs PLUS a Rhodes scholarship, PLUS several lucrative patents just to get the interview for an entry level science job
to
Someone with only a bachelors and no experience to be qualified for an eye-watering-it's-so crazy-lucrative area sales manager position.
If you read my previous posts I think I have made my opinion of what a REAL shortage should look like quite clear. What we have no is NOT by any means a shortage at least as far as science is concerned.
The 10,000 hour rule refers to the development of talent, not semi-skill labor, and it applies to everyone from Olympic performers to theoretical physicists. No matter how talented a person is, that talent must be developed by experience. And for certain fields, that experience must come in childhood when the mind is malleable to learning things that the vast majority of human beings will never be capable of understanding.
You are still wrong. You have no effing idea how tough and strong curricula are, particularly in basic science and Maths across school systems in Asia.
For starters, see latest rankings in Maths Olympiads and see how far Asia has progressed. Again, this is not 1950 any more.
Their analytical and quantitative skills are already quite high.
GRE scores reveal that as well.
So far as access to computer is concerned. It has improved drastically. Even without that, there are tons of successful engineers and entrepreneurs, who were originally from relatively poorer countries.
We have a person who is originally from Nigeria, Africa. But he has a PhD from Cambridge, and he is quite smart. I am sure it is unimaginable for you, given that his background is from a poor country.
A lot of people from poorer background who did not use computers until at the undergrad level, do much better in picking up skills quickly due to both intelligence and hard-work. You are completely wrong in this.
Over here, we take care of gifted and talented students very well. But the average public school system is mediocre. That "no child left behind" policy has further corroded the system.
Trust me, we need to change drastically the school system if we want stay competitive in the world. Again, this is 21st century.
Or, you can relax and whine about "extinction of species".
We are great at the college levels, and beyond. That's why people from all over the world come here to study. And most of them do quite well, in case you are not aware.
So far as access to computer is concerned. It has improved drastically. Even without that, there are tons of successful engineers and entrepreneurs, who were originally from relatively poorer countries.
We have a person who is originally from Nigeria, Africa. But he has a PhD from Cambridge, and he is quite smart. I am sure it is unimaginable for you, given that his background is from a poor country.
It was something to see how the kids who came from to the backward nation like Vietnam back in the mid 70s excelled in advanced Math and Science. After getting
top grades and 4 yr US university degree went into SV tech companies and other did equally well.
Rin
2013 May 6, 12:27pm
Folks, this thread is a first for Patrick.net.
For a while, it looked like a lot of bickering and such, however, an authentic discussion is forming and various points of consensus are being reached.
GRE scores reveal that as well.
I could be wrong about this - but I am someone who spent the better part of two years in classes with only Asian classmates. In fact, I was the first American kid to graduate from my uni with a math degree in three years.
Anyway - my observation at the time was simply one of selection bias. Point is, China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, and Korea are not sending their average students to study in the US. I think at the time the aggregate population of those countries (of which were home to at least one of my classmates) were around 40% of the world population, roughly 10 times as many people as in the US.
Anyway, assuming a normal distribution for ability in those countries similarly to the US, 2% of the brightest minds in those countries would be the same number of people as one-fifth of the US population. Or roughly equivalent to everyone in California and Texas.
They aren't sending THAT many students to study in the US, so it is more likely they are sending the top one tenth of 1% or better. Even at that level we are talking about a population somewhere between Nevada and New Mexico.
Unless someone shows me a study indicating otherwise - I am most certain that high average GRE, GMAT, etc scores for Asian students is a factor of selection bias more than anything else.
Bellingham Bill
2013 May 6, 1:10pm
not sure this is apropos, or what it really measures:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USINFO
(I think it includes entertainment industry jobs too)
but that there would be the exact same number of "info" jobs in 2013 as when I got my CS degree lo these many years ago is shocking to me.
(I think it includes entertainment industry jobs too)
entertainment like google, facebook, linkedin, ebay, amazon or some of the numerous advertising earning companies masquerading as tech jobs.
summarizing the discussion.
Side 1 : There is no tech jobs shortage. Companies want to use cheap labor to increase the profits. Dan's main argument is that when you allow one company to do that, others have to follow ( similar to tragedy of commons) and thus everybody races to the bottom. companies will use cheap labor to increase short term profits at the expense of long term profits. When all companies do that, the country as a whole suffers.
Side 2: H1bs are not needed for race to bottom. companies can do that with existing local population as well.There are enough non talented people in US already to accomplish that. The companies can hire high school students and pay them very little.what does H1b change ?
There is real shortage of tech jobs. This is proved by the fact that even after the H1b program has been around for more than a decade, software jobs still command good salaries.Some technologies and companies are only viable when engineers are paid what we pay them today.With very high salaries, a big chunk of the tech industry won't be economical and thus would not have even existed.US has to keep importing foreign talent to compete with other countries. If we don't hire them , they stay home and help their own country compete with US.
Side 1 vs Side 2 conversation is not new at all. If you look at all the protectionism arguments in various industries across europe and other countries for more than 100 years, its the same kind of arguments. The best way to find whats right is to look at history books. The sources below are for free trade but the arguments are similar to what we are discussing.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704696304575538030239055918.html
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/truth-about-trade-history
New Renter
2013 May 6, 7:00pm
summarizing the discussion.
I think you are focusing too tightly on jobs involving software Perhaps this is all you know or care about; however, this discussion is regarding Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics - ALL the STEM fields.
The definitions of the purview of STEM, and what is excluded, varies from organization to organization. In the broader definition, STEM degrees includes the fields of Chemistry, Computer and Information Technology Science, Engineering, Geosciences, Life Sciences, Mathematical Sciences, Physics and Astronomy, Psychology, Social Sciences, and STEM Education and Learning Research
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEM_fields
There appears to be a consensus at this point that Science is indeed NOT suffering from a shortage Quite the opposite in fact. I have yet to see anyone weigh in on Mathematics. As for engineering and technology there is much more to those fields than just software. How are Mechanical Engineers doing? Civil? Aerospace? "Technology" is pretty broad as well.
Rin
2013 May 6, 11:35pm
I think you are focusing too tightly on jobs involving software Perhaps this is all you know or care about; however, this discussion is regarding Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics - ALL the STEM fields.
There appears to be a consensus at this point that Science is indeed NOT suffering from a shortage Quite the opposite in fact.
Here's the thing, in MA, places like Genzyme & Vertex have unfilled jobs & like their software counterparts ... will also surrender to the shortage myth but then, only look at resumes from ppl who already have jobs at Wyeth or Biogen [ clearly, ppl are afraid to jump ship, when their isn't much upside to leaving so many of those ppl aren't for hire ] and then, reject nearly 100 applicants from Univ of VT/NH/ME, etc because one particular candidate from Whitehead/Kendall Sq didn't accept an offer.
finehoe
2013 May 7, 12:06am
The companies can hire high school students and pay them very little.what does H1b change ?
Non-US citizens have less room to complain, companies can work them harder in worse environments. And if they do make any noise, ship 'em back. That's what an H1-B changes.
Tenpoundbass
2013 May 7, 1:31am
I heard a great report on NPR this morning, I was also surprised that it was even aired on NPR. But apparently Black farm workers in Georgia are suing big AG for importing "Guest Workers" to do Ag work, and are giving those Mexican guest workers favorable conditions, and also paying them higher, than the local workers.
These local workers fly in the face of the pro immigration logic, that they are jobs that nobody wants anyway. Then to top it off, those guest workers, get paid better, and are provided better housing.
It then segued into a story about STEM, about how Microsoft and other giant tech companies have been lobbying Washington for more quest workers in the tech industry. Siting that skilled help is hard to find. Which also flies in the face of high unemployment in the tech sector, that says otherwise.
If there was a shortage of STEM workers, then the wages would be skyrocketing which isn't the case, because they are able to import Guest illegals to beat back historic wages.
New Renter
2013 May 7, 1:42am
I heard a great report on NPR this morning, I was also surprised that it was even aired on NPR.
I'm just surprised you LISTEN to NPR! :)
I think this about sums it up:
Shaman
2013 May 7, 1:48am
I just read a book Id like to recommend, for anyone who loves technology and science, even if those careers can pay dick at times. "The Martian" by Andy Weir is about a near future astronaut who gets left behind on Mars when his team bugs out to avoid a storm. It's chock full of geeky math and science and geek humor. I about had a nerdgasm reading it! Awesome.
Rin
2013 May 7, 2:03am
If there was a shortage of STEM workers, then the wages would be skyrocketing which isn't the case, because they are able to import Guest illegals to beat back historic wages
The best way to verify this is to go to glassdoor.com and looks at engineering salaries at Raytheon, Northrup, & United Technologies. These are defense contractors who mainly employ US nationals for security (or soon-to-be) clearance work.
If there was a real dearth of Americans in STEM, these salaries would span from $100K to $300K, instead the ranges are from $50K to $150K, with the occasional outlying senior tasks/roles from $150K to $200K, pretty normal, if you ask me.
Tenpoundbass
2013 May 7, 2:56am
I'm just surprised you LISTEN to NPR! :)
I get my outrage straight from the horses ass.
I don't need to sit around and commiserate with Glen Beck.
Just because I side with some conservative issues, like the neo Democrats are Assholes. I'm well planted in the reality that Conservatives are Bigger assholes.
The difference is, I have never once in my life considered my self a Republican, but always considered my self a Democrat until Clinton's administration informed me otherwise.
I'm over parties, I just want to get someone elected with a real zeal and knack for solving problems, who wont get side tracked with bullshit agendas, that get in the way of any real problems getting solved. That goes for Agendas from both Parties.
zzyzzx
2013 May 7, 3:26am
I get my outrage straight from the horses ass.
Sounds delicious!
Obligatory:
If there was a shortage of STEM workers, then the wages would be skyrocketing which isn't the case, because they are able to import Guest illegals to beat back historic wages
The best way to verify this is to go to glassdoor.com and looks at engineering salaries at Raytheon, Northrup, & United Technologies. These are defense contractors who mainly employ US nationals for security (or soon-to-be) clearance work.
If there was a real dearth of Americans in STEM, these salaries would span from $100K to $300K, instead the ranges are from $50K to $150K, with the occasional outlying senior tasks/roles from $150K to $200K, pretty normal, if you ask me.
I believe those companies supporting this H1B expansion bill are the high-tech companies. It seems to me they want PhDs a lot of times. If you go to those highly ranked grad schools, more than 50% of the students in STEM are foreigners. So, I get that just domestic students alone will not meet their needs. However, from what I can tell, a lot of those foreigner PhDs graduated and had a hard time finding jobs in US. Maybe the bottleneck is on H1B quotas. I do not know.
Rin
2013 May 7, 3:50am
I believe those companies supporting this H1B expansion bill are the high-tech companies. It seems to me they want PhDs a lot of times. If you go to those highly ranked grad schools, more than 50% of the students in STEM are foreigners.
But do they really need someone with the PhD training? Wouldn't a BS/MS in EE or CS (or any STEM area with sufficient programming projects) be enough? And at the same time, if the work is defense, as I'd hinted in the glassdoor.com bit, then H1-Bs can't really work on that stuff. What that means is that the average STEM salary in defense work would skyrocket, as there'd be a huge shortage of US citizen applicants, however, as you can see in Northrup, Raytheon, and others, the salaries are pretty tame and manageable. That's not a mark of a shortage.
New Renter
2013 May 7, 3:58am
I believe those companies supporting this H1B expansion bill are the high-tech companies. It seems to me they want PhDs a lot of times.
Sure, why not. I'd want a harem of supermodels too.
It seems to me they want PhDs a lot of times. If you go to those highly ranked grad schools, more than 50% of the students in STEM are foreigners. So, I get that just domestic students alone will not meet their needs.
Yes they will. Easily.
However, from what I can tell, a lot of those foreigner PhDs graduated and had a hard time finding jobs in US.
More evidence there are more workers than positions even without the H1B expansion. Take away the post-doc treadmill and you have an even better picture of the situation.
Maybe the bottleneck is on H1B quotas. I do not know.
The problem is the myth has encouraged young people to seek careers in STEM. Many are finding difficulty upon receiving their bachelors so they double down with a graduate degree hoping to God things improve by the time they get out. It doesn't. The only option for many is to hop onto the post-doc treadmill.
Rin
2013 May 7, 4:06am
Maybe the bottleneck is on H1B quotas. I do not know.
The problem is the myth has encouraged young people to seek careers in STEM. Many are finding difficulty upon receiving their bachelors so they double down with a graduate degree hoping to God things improve by the time they get out. It doesn't. The only option for many is to hop onto the post-doc treadmill.
Problem is that one needs to double down on a 2nd bachelors or something different, like MS in accounting or physical therapy. I knew a chemical engineer, who got his 2nd degree in physical therapy. Was employed almost immediately, whereas he couldn't get squat with his chem engin bachelors, even in pharmaceutical companies with alleged worker shortages.
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If there’s one thing that everyone can agree on in Washington, it’s that the country has a woeful shortage of workers trained in science, technology, engineering and math — what’s referred to as STEM.
President Obama has said that improving STEM education is one of his top priorities. Chief executives regularly come through Washington complaining that they can’t find qualified American workers for openings at their firms that require a science background. And armed with this argument in the debate over immigration policy, lobbyists are pushing hard for more temporary work visas, known as H-1Bs, which they say are needed to make up for the lack of Americans with STEM skills.
But not everyone agrees. A study released Wednesday by the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute reinforces what a number of researchers have come to believe: that the STEM worker shortage is a myth.
The EPI study found that the United States has “more than a sufficient supply of workers available to work in STEM occupations.†Basic dynamics of supply and demand would dictate that if there were a domestic labor shortage, wages should have risen. Instead, researchers found, they’ve been flat, with many Americans holding STEM degrees unable to enter the field and a sharply higher share of foreign workers taking jobs in the information technology industry. (IT jobs make up 59 percent of the STEM workforce, according to the study.)
The answer to whether there is a shortage of such workers has important ramifications for the immigration bill. If it exists, then there’s an urgency that justifies allowing companies to bring more foreign workers into the country, usually on a short-term H-1B visa. But those who oppose such a policy argue that companies want more of these visas mainly because H-1B workers are paid an estimated 20 percent less than their American counterparts. Why allow these companies to hire more foreign workers for less, the critics argue, when there are plenty of Americans who are ready to work?
The EPI study said that while the overall number of U.S. students who earn STEM degrees is small — a fact that many lawmakers and the news media have seized on — it’s more important to focus on what happens to these students after they graduate. According to the study, they have a surprisingly hard time finding work. Only half of the students graduating from college with a STEM degree are hired into a STEM job, the study said.
“Even in engineering,†the authors said, “U.S. colleges have historically produced about 50 percent more graduates than are hired into engineering jobs each year.â€
The picture is not that bright for computer science students, either. “For computer science graduates employed one year after graduation . . . about half of those who took a job outside of IT say they did so because the career prospects were better elsewhere, and roughly a third because they couldn’t find a job in IT,†the study said.
While liberal arts graduates might be used to having to look for jobs with only tenuous connections to their majors, the researchers said this shouldn’t be the case for graduates with degrees attached to specific skills such as engineering.
The tech industry has said that it needs more H-1B visas in order to hire the “best and the brightest,†regardless of their citizenship. Yet the IT industry seems to have a surprisingly low bar for education. The study found that among IT workers, 36 percent do not have a four-year college degree. Among the 64 percent who do have diplomas, only 38 percent have a computer science or math degree.
The bipartisan immigration plan introduced last week by the so-called Gang of Eight senators would raise the number of H-1B visas, though it would limit the ability of outsourcing firms to have access to them. Tech companies such as Facebook and Microsoft have fought hard to distinguish themselves from these outsourcing companies, arguing that unlike firms such as Wipro, they’re looking for the best people, not just ones who will work for less.
But some worry that the more H-1Bs allowed into the system, the more domestic workers get crowded out, resulting in what no one appears to want: fewer American students seeing much promise in entering STEM fields.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/study-there-may-not-be-a-shortage-of-american-stem-graduates-after-all/2013/04/24/66099962-acea-11e2-a8b9-2a63d75b5459_story.html
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