SF Bay area real estate report : Feb 2012 -- from a realtor
invite response
2012 Feb 17, 3:48am 6,870 views 17 comments
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B.A.C.A.H.
2012 Feb 17, 4:07am
I have made many offers in Jan-Feb (in the following cities: Saratoga, Cupertino, Fremont, Milpitas, San Jose, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale) and ended up losing most of them to multiple offers that far exceeded most recent comps.
"Losing most of them".
What do you mean by losing? Is that your word, or your Realtor®'s?
How can you lose something that you did not even have?
Unless like, you mean to say, you lost a game or a sporting event.
Is that what it is, Fortress Real Estate like a sporting event?
Maybe, in that kind of a sporting event, it is more like an argument with the spouse: if you win, you lose.
We have multiple offers on almost every sale in the lower part of the market," said Barbara Lymberis, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors. "If people are thinking we haven't hit bottom, they're wrong."
Yea right.. here is Barbara Lymberis bio...so wtf.. would you trust a f*cking opera singer to talk abour Re or Economics...6 fucking years in RE and now she is an experts.. give me a fucking break..What the fuck is wrong with Mercury News.. is this the best they can do.. is this really journalism.
http://nickandbarbara.com/nickandbarbara
Barbara and Nick have been real estate professionals for six and seven years respectively. Prior to joining APR, they were both at Elite Realty, Prudential California and Realty World. Before entering real estate, Barbara was in marketing and public relations. Earlier in her career, she was a professional vocalist. Nick was a practicing attorney and managing associate at Lymberis, Tollner, Stebbins & Bahrick from the late 1980s until 1999 before entering real estate. Nick is also a vocalist and met Barbara in 1983 while both were singing leading roles with Opera San Jose.
dunnross
2012 Feb 18, 2:42am
Keep in mind that agents think they know it all, but investors are the ones that are steering the ship. This time around we have investors with cold hard cash buying properties, not the speculators that were buying with 100% financed and stated income or neg. ARM kind of loans. :)
What happened to all those "investors" who jumped in to catch a falling knife, at the same time, last year, and are now 5-10% under water? Did they also know what they were doing?
bubblesitter
2012 Feb 18, 2:46am
What happened to all those "investors" who jumped in to catch a falling knife, at the same time, last year, and are now 5-10% under water? Did they also know what they were doing?
I can understand the emotional part in buying a home for living,but investment in the current environment is loosing equity from under while collecting rent from above. Ah, this math is so complicated. :)
Don't know where things are going, but right now, the SF MOI, or Months of Inventory, stands around 2 months and is the lowest since this tracking began `20 Years ago. Typically 5-6 MOI represents an even market, below 5 a sellers market, above 6 a buyers market. So with only 2 MOI, this typically indicates an upwards price pressure trend, even in a down market.
An asset that generates that kind of cash are never forced to sell until the price is right. It's like holding convertable preferred shares. Take the stated dividends when the stock price is low and convert when it is high.
Basically can't lose.
whenever you hear "can't lose" with respect to any investment.
you know it's complete bullshit.
bubblesitter
2012 Feb 18, 5:05am
whenever you hear "can't lose" with respect to any investment.
Nope, a loss is very hard to perceive,no matter how much you loose but you will come out as winner at the end of 30 years,isn't it? Hahaha.
CrazyMan
2012 Feb 18, 5:56am
Strange, the actual data (you know, facts and all) show just the opposite for the vast majority of the markets in the BA. $/sqft and median is down almost across the board.
The mid-high is still falling. PA, Cupertino, and MP seem to be exceptions; luckily I don't want to live in any of those places.
Strange, the actual data (you know, facts and all) show just the opposite for the vast majority of the markets in the BA. $/sqft and median is down almost across the board.
that's how the bulls roll.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Feb 18, 7:14am
There is no doubt about that.
There is alway always doubt. Time is the only thing that will tell.
bubblesitter
2012 Feb 18, 7:31am
that's how the bulls roll.
Right on. I don't know what the deal is, but avg. home price selling 2 years ago in the zip code on my watch list was $250+/sq.ft and there are plenty of recent sales around $200 to $225/sq.ft so there is definitely a downward movement. I don't care if CS reflects that in the next graph or not,all it matters for me is what way the prices are swinging in the area I want to buy and they are going down,so I am holding off buying.
bubblesitter
2012 Feb 18, 11:11am
Permanent Marker is looking for a home in the South Bay
GL to permanent.
why you always get a joy with your one liner response while add no substance the the discussion. :)
Just as you have your joy of positive cash flow. :)
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Feb 18, 11:55am
ship is leaving the dock.
Not only is the ship in for repairs, but the water has retreated my friend. Load up all you want now, but don't be surprised when you can get the same for 10-20% less in a few years. The BA will hurt more before this is done in my view of the problem. I own investment properties as well and wish things were different, but such is life.
REpro
2012 Feb 18, 12:08pm
Another smoke making realtor statement:
“OMG so many offersâ€
Answer is simple: Low inventory. One buyer have no choice like makes several offers over the weekend, all below asking price.
BA is still far away of being ripe for save RE investment.
Katy Perry
2012 Feb 18, 12:38pm
and what happens to prices as interest rates go higher,..I forget now,...hmmmm.
I forget now,...hmmmm.
not much...1945-80 prices adjusted for inflaton were flat while interest rates skyrocketed... 1980-1997 prices flat except for a few bumps while interest rates dropped back to the levels of the 1940s.
After 1997... see the graph!
Interest rates... not a factor on prices.. at least shouldnt be.
read and comment
the following is from a realtor
==========
It has been very interesting since the start of the year only (end of last year was very slow) . Markets in the northwest area (starting from 94087 Sunnyvale to Menlo Park) are on fire, and the rest is also much stronger than last year.
I have noticed a 5-10% price jump in Cupertino, west SJ, and Saratoga and some 1-5% in Milpitas, Fremont, and San Jose. Menlo Park is quite unique area with increases as much as 50% , due to the upcoming Facebook IPO.
I have made many offers in Jan-Feb (in the following cities: Saratoga, Cupertino, Fremont, Milpitas, San Jose, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale) and ended up losing most of them to multiple offers that far exceeded most recent comps. The number of offers ranges from 5 (even in Milpitas, San Jose where there are still many distressed properties) to 21 and (just today) 30 in Cupertino.
Contact me if you need data (number of offers, contract price vs past comps) specific to your target area of interest
The bottom line is the trend is clearly UP., likely due to:
1.Robust tech hiring with significant pay increases.
2.Record low interest rates making homes more affordable.
3.Pent up demand held back during last few years
4.Strong stock performance of local tech companies
The media usually lags behind by a couple of months .By the time they report , it is usually too late, as usual. SJ Mercury News today has â€prices in Bay Area fall†as headline !!! Most sales in JAN/FEB have not closed. Besides, more sales at the lower end drag median number down and vice versa. Real estate markets are also unique and localized to each zip code and areas within one zip code.
That is why I have stopped reporting general median prices in my reports , starting JAN 2012.
We will have problems with appraisals in this uptrend as appraisers only look at past comps and are not out there bidding to understand market prices and neighborhoods very well.
Useful Info (from CA realtor organization)
Mortgage
I've heard people say they didn't want to buy a home because they were depressed by the thought of a debt that would last 30 years. I've heard others regret that they couldn't afford the payment on a 15-year mortgage and instead were stuck with a 30-year loan.
The fact is, you control when you pay your mortgage off, and it doesn't take a lottery or inheritance windfall to pay yours off sooner than later.
Some people pay half their mortgage payment every two weeks, which results in a full extra payment every year and can pay your mortgage off as much as five years early. Others just pay an extra $100 or so as often as they can, and ask their loan servicer to apply the overage to principal.
Some do much more, applying paycheck raises over the years or amounts they once paid to extinguish credit card debt toward their mortgage balances in an effort to pay them off early.
The theme is that, as a borrower, you may have much more power than you thought, from exploring little-known options for getting your upside-down mortgage's payment lowered to being aggressive about paying your home off sooner rather than later. So get clear on your personal goals for your mortgage, get educated about your options and get assertive about making them happen -- now..
Buyer:
.
From Dataquick:
The median’s low point of the current real estate cycle was $290,000 in March 2009. The peak was $665,000 in June/July 2007. Around half of the median’s peak-to-trough drop was the result of a decline in home values, while the other half reflected a shift in the sales mix.
“While it’s clear prices have edged lower in some areas recently, last month’s Bay Area median of just $326,000 is a reflection of how skewed the market has become toward distressed, lower-cost properties. The higher-end sales have slowed in recent months as many struggle to qualify for loans and others just sit tight. This is also the time of year that we caution people not to try to read too much into the statistics. The winter numbers are based on a smaller pool of buyers and they haven’t proved very predictive,†said John Walsh, DataQuick president
Buyers who appear to have paid all cash – meaning no corresponding purchase loan was found in the public record – accounted for 30.0 percent of January sales, up from 27.2 percent in December, and up from 28.7 percent a year earlier
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SJ Mercury News
This the headline from our local newspaper : Bay Area home sales mostly up, although prices fall
We have multiple offers on almost every sale in the lower part of the market," said Barbara Lymberis, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors. "If people are thinking we haven't hit bottom, they're wrong."
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