patrick.net

Bigsby says

Getting a few more mpg is a good thing however you decide to do it.

A 1980 GEO got better gas mileage than a Prius, or is it the Pious?

Labor participation rate is lowest since 1984. (~63%)

Automation, Cloud (XaaS), high productivity levels, flatter management structures make getting a job for younger people very hard, and unskilled people impossible.

This country is now have and have-nots. Don't think for a moment your job is safe. The global corporations want your labor cost gone. You are one Bain Capital evaluation away from being destitute. Welcome to the USA, 2012. Fear motivates your every move.

Bigsby says

It's something that you stick in your car to go from A to B, and most certainly wasn't something invented by Henery (sic) Ford.

Well if you're going to split hairs, then Alexander Graham Bell invented the Wallie Talkie.

TPB says

Or maybe you are, and you're new here. Here let me give you some advice. It's hard to get people to Vote Democrat when you don't have respect for anyone that doesn't see it the way you do. Liberals in the last decade has done more to kill any notion of third party ideas in this country, while their party has grown so far from a rational center, it's a horror show of a different genre than the GOP. If I have to vote 5 more administrations of Republicans until Democrats come up with a new game plan rather than ostracizing others, and calling the people they expect to vote Democrat stupid, and Independents can get a fair go in politics. Then I'll vote GW Bush in office like Ground Hog day, for a thousand years. Now normally I wouldn't want to chose between being bitten by one of two venomous snakes, but I am going to be weary if one of the snakes tells me, hey let me bite you stupid, he just wants inject you with venom.

I don't live in the US, I'm not a US citizen and I'm not a liberal (though that isn't actually an insult you know however much you may think it is). I have a home in Monterey.
And as an outsider, it's very clear that it is not the Democrats that have moved far from the centre, but quite the opposite - it's the Republicans who have jumped off the deep end. They are a shadow of the party they once were and judging by the sorry list of candidates in the current primaries are only getting worse.

TPB says

Bigsby says

Getting a few more mpg is a good thing however you decide to do it.

A 1980 GEO got better gas mileage than a Prius, or is it the Pious?

William E Baughb

So?

robertoaribas says

bring on $4 gas, my properties are all located near light rail and/or close in to employment centers. I ride my bicycle to work..

Yeah, and *everything* that you consume, from going out to eat, to shopping, to food, to rentals, everything, goes with it. Asking for high petrol prices is self effacing in the worst way.

Bigsby says

particularly with current interest rates

If interest rates go back to the normal 5-7% range, do people really think that they wont be underwater? Prices will fall if interest rates rise unless there is rapid inflation - not stagflation - which is what we have now, prices go up, salaries real terms stagnate or go down.

tdeloco says

Let's get back to the boom times! Give these burger flippers who earn $18k/yr a zero down zero percent ARM mortgage on a $600k home, and we're once again back in the boom times

80/10/10 is back. FHA is 3.5% up to 729k. I've seen 5/1 ARMS at 2.1%. They are attempting to re-inflate the bubble as fast as they can - but instead of sucking in strawberry pickers in Gilroy who would have been destitute anyways, they are going after people who have survived the economic holocaust and they are determined to break every last one of the middle class by saddling them with debt. I always wonder what Realtors think - where are their kids supposed to live? Why promote overspending on houses that fall apart?

Buster says

I work in biotechnology development, a profession that did not exist 30 years ago. For those of us who have 'updated our skill sets' that may be utilized in this work environment, things have never been better. There are jobs galore, all in the six figures.

Not for anyone that has school debt. I know people in their early thirties that are well qualified in biotech and they cant get over 100k easy.

Its easy to be smug, but for people under 35, life is really unpleasant right now. Skyrocketing cost of fuel, rent and food and stagnant salaries.

Oh, and just to let you all know, when you job hop to get your pay inflation adjusted, that's a clever way for a company to get rid of people with many years of service making you even more dispensable.

Things are bad right now, most people consider themselves lucky to get a contributory/matched 401k and decent health care, let alone getting enough to get ahead.

And skills? Its not about skills so much as it is about who you know. Most of the skills you need in many places were just invented, so really its about being clever and smart and using networking to get in. I love these job postings where you must have already had the job in question to qualify for it (and the job doesn't exist in any other company - not even close).

I've seen job postings asking for experience with INTERNAL tools.

I am not saying it is easy, but is very possible. I just moved here, knew nobody, and landed a job with a major biotech with my first and only interview. Now, after 9 months, was looking around. Casually put my resume in for 3 jobs, not expecting to hear back from anyone. Guess what? Each called me back. Had screening telephone interviews for 3/3. Two are now scheduling face to face interviews. Yes, it is competitive, but again, with the right skill sets, you don't need to know anybody to get a job. Interview skill sets are another that most don't seem to bother developing either. Perhaps it is my attitude. I think it is 'positive & hopeful', vs. your characterization of 'smug'. There is a huge difference and people pick up on it right away.

Oh, and as far as the poster stating that no one is making money in tech, check this article out from today's SF Chron: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/02/20/BAFU1N9T8J.DTL Personally, I am not a huge fan of Noe Valley, but apparently others feel different than me.

bubblesitter says

Aha,finally those $8.50/hr jobs are coming back and that will thrust the housing market into new highs,higher then the 2006 highs. LOL.

That and the new "lower" unemployment levels due to people counted as dropping out of the labor market.

zzyzzx says

That and the new "lower" unemployment levels due to people counted as dropping out of the labor market.

There is no data on the dropped out ones,so the bulls won't see it.

The old saying goes that if you're unemployed then the economy sucks. If you've got a job things are great. Ancedotally speaking it seems like most of the people I know who live out of state are having a harder time than those I know who live in the immediate Bay Area. I can also contrast with when I was laid off a few years ago and now. I've got a good job that pays well so I am more or less "insulated" in terms of how I feel. But it does seem that the people I do know who are either looking for or wanting to change jobs are having an easier time doing so. Then again these are all folks in the tech biz. Tech only makes up around 30%-35% of the total workforce in the BA. The entire local economy can't be entirely tied to its success.

edvard2 says

The old saying goes that if you're unemployed then the economy sucks

That's the truth and probably the real explanation for why some of us here are such downers while others are more positive.

While some like to Bark about the 1% vs the 99% mark.
What would be real interesting to see, would be a graph that showed the percentage of those making median income range, vs lower tier and higher tier income levels, from 1999 through now.

I'm quite sure, you would see a stagnate or even disappearing middle class income level. While those making $8 or around, would have the biggest growth. And those making over 100K would also see a spike compared to 2000-2007. $20-$35 an hour should much smaller than the other levels.

I remember in 1997 seeing job classified ads(this was before the internet actually was as through of search tool as it is now) in the news papers, programing jobs for 80K or more were so common. It was the biggest drive for me to learn and work early on, for intern wages for the first couple years. Coming out of a relative providing skilled trade, to peanut wages. But by time I had the skills to compete for those higher paying wages, the tech bubble collapsed. All through our 2000-2007, programming jobs paying over 65K to 75K were rare. Senior programmers weren't making no where near the 100K range. Project managers, and CTOs and CIOs maybe but not programmers.

While I feel lucky my industry is doing well, I know most other higher paying jobs, are either gone or paying a lot less than they were pre 2007. And minimum wage jobs are the greatest percentage of jobs available. We've got some of the finest Millwrights, Carpenters, Heavy Equipment operators, Teachers, Policemen, Electricians, Finance workers, Lawyers, Plant supervisors, General Managers, Regional directors ect. in the world, manning a counter at the Piggly Wiggly poised and ready to serve you better. Just making $8 bucks an hour.

"Obama you did a bang up job!" As Bush would probably say.

Perhaps another thing that would be interesting would be to speculate whether the Bay Area has basically flushed most of the middle class out of the area anyway. This has been sort of discussed before, but its pretty much a given that unless you got here decades ago, today if you're in the traditional middle class then you can't afford a home here and that is just about the most reliable gauge to whether the middle class thrives in a given area.

If that's the case then the BA is in more bubbles than one. Its also in a wage bubble. I've often said for years that those making upper middle class incomes today actually only have the spending power of the upper working/lower middle class.

dr said: The era of burger flipping and toll booth operators.
I probably wouldn't look to toll booth operator as a long term career choice:
The Golden Gate Bridge District has cleared the way for the Bay Area’s first foray into cashless tolling, beginning as soon as December.. A system of road sensors and cameras will either deduct your $6 toll from a FasTrak device, or use your license plate to send you a bill you can pay in retail stores or online.

Nomo said: Yeah, and there aren't any Frisbee plants in the Bay Area either.
Maybe not the Bay Area, but they are coming back.
A number of companies are ahead of the curve, including California-based toymaker Wham-O, which last year returned 50 percent of its Frisbee and Hula-Hoop production from China and Mexico to the U.S., said Sirkin.

Nomograph says

It's probably your negative attitude that is hurting you; employers go to great lengths to weed out negative people from the candidate pool. Pessimists are detrimental to productivity and poisonous to morale.

There are plenty of biotech jobs for those with the required skills.

Here's 300 listings for biologists, chemists, pharmacologists, and development professionals just in the San Diego area:

http://www.biospace.com/jobs/search-results/?HotbedRegionId=6&PageSize=25&PageIndex=1

Here's 400 listings in the Bay Area:

http://www.biospace.com/jobs/search-results/?HotbedRegionId=5&PageSize=25&PageIndex=1

There are PLENTY of opportunities for biotech professionals in California, provided you have the required background. The ticket is a good education from a good school; a degree from a UC, Stanford, or Caltech is the ticket, while one from Cal State Chino will put you farther back in line.

It's called being realistic and has nothing to do with not being positive. Many of those jobs you linked to are fake. Biotech companies do that to make it look like they are doing well.

Many more are bench positions. While there are lots of bench monkey positions I sure as heck wouldn't want one. Been there, done that and without having gone back to school to mix in software development with my molecular biologist skills I'd have been stuck in a dead end job with no advancement opportunity. You are literally better off NOT going to college than you are working the bench in Biotech. You'll make more money in the short run and long run with less debt.

Overall, for most, biotech sucks for a career. Anyone who says otherwise either (1) works in some capacity that is non-science related but could get paid better doing the same thing in another industry or (2) is clueless.

@TPB: Apologies for clicking dislike on your post. Spastic move on my part that I can't seem to undo.

Nomograph says

The ticket is a good education from a good school; a degree from a UC, Stanford, or Caltech is the ticket, while one from Cal State Chino will put you farther back in line.

Dr Professor Civil Servant,
Please tell me about Cal State Chino. I did not know about it. Maybe some slacker kids I know can get accepted to it.

Passing,

The Professor's Gig is an elite taxpayer supported grad school. For sure those kind of outfits add to the GDP and overall tax base of the state, it's the reason I voted for Prop-71 in a time of statewide cutbacks.

That said, just like individual Realtors® who say that real estate always and only goes up, The Professor needs to talk up his Gig, even if Your Individual Results May Vary.

Nomograph says

just_passing_through says

It's called being realistic and has nothing to do with not being positive.

Pessimists seldom realize they are pessimists; they always claim to be "realists."

just_passing_through says

Many of those jobs you linked to are fake. Biotech companies do that to make it look like they are doing well.

Complete BS. You just made that up because you are pessimistic.

just_passing_through says

Overall, for most, biotech sucks for a career. Anyone who says otherwise either (1) works in some capacity that is non-science related but could get paid better doing the same thing in another industry or (2) is clueless.

You sound like a real negative guy. Employers go to great lengths to keep people like you out of positions of importance; pessimists bring down productivity and are toxic to morale.

just_passing_through says

@TPB: Apologies for clicking dislike on your post. Spastic move on my part that I can't seem to undo.

It's just a flesh wound.

Nomograph says

just_passing_through says

It's called being realistic and has nothing to do with not being positive.

Pessimists seldom realize they are pessimists; they always claim to be "realists."

just_passing_through says

Many of those jobs you linked to are fake. Biotech companies do that to make it look like they are doing well.

Complete BS. You just made that up because you are pessimistic.

just_passing_through says

Overall, for most, biotech sucks for a career. Anyone who says otherwise either (1) works in some capacity that is non-science related but could get paid better doing the same thing in another industry or (2) is clueless.

You sound like a real negative guy. Employers go to great lengths to keep people like you out of positions of importance; pessimists bring down productivity and are toxic to morale.

I'm the pessimist? I mostly just lurk here as I don't enjoy arguing with people over the interwebs. At work, and amongst my large group of friends I've got a rep as being a very nice guy, very positive who gets the job done. Otherwise I wouldn't have made it as far as I have. I've also noticed that you've got a reputation for being a jerk to people on here so I'm not surprised. Sometimes though, I've read your posts and thought, "hmmm... maybe he has a point?". Mostly because you were commenting about something I didn't know much about. Now I know your full of it - thanks for the clarity.

My original response was to someone who stated a plethora of >100K jobs in biotech. Some poor kids are going to believe that and that is why I spoke up. I focused on that and that alone instead of the fake recovery / fake job numbers etc.

If my memory serves me you're an MD correct?

Typical...

Done with you now...

Nomograph says

You folks won't get anywhere in life with this kind of attitude. Employers go to great lengths NOT to hire pessimists; they bring down productivity and are toxic to morale.

We do! That's why I just hired a super-sunny dispositioned individual. Almost entirely for morale!

B.A.C.A.H. says

Nomograph says

The ticket is a good education from a good school; a degree from a UC, Stanford, or Caltech is the ticket, while one from Cal State Chino will put you farther back in line.

Dr Professor Civil Servant,
Please tell me about Cal State Chino. I did not know about it. Maybe some slacker kids I know can get accepted to it.

My experience with entry level bench researchers:

Bezerkly: Think hard, don't work hard - and show up late every day.

Stanford: Self taught and pissed off that their tuition funded Howard Hughes Med Center rather than their education

UC Davis: Show up to work on day-1 with practical skills ready to go and make an impact. Great school for scientists.

Chico: My cousin got some welding cert there and makes more money doing that than any bench scientists I know.

Passing,

thanks for the input about Chico St., I am well aware about that school.

I'd like our "Civil" Servant Doctor Professor to share his Wisdom with us about CSU Chino campus.

Didn't know there was one there.

Nomograph says

You sound like a real negative guy. Employers go to great lengths to keep people like you out of positions of importance; pessimists bring down productivity and are toxic to morale.

I think the bulk of the folks that can't get back to work. It's because they took a pull off of the Social teet. On one hand you had an open policy of the Government encouraging people to run don't walk to the nearest "out sourced" Unemployment center, and register for your weekly government stipend. Then we called for 99 week long unemployment benefits. These private organizations, are then selling that data back to the corporations they serve.
So you have a guy, that should be worth over 125K a year, settling for a $575 biweekly paycheck. And to be a drain for up to 99 weeks.
What organization would be keen on hiring that hunk of dead weight back in their organization? If it doesn't work out for you. There's a great probability, that rather than this person would look for work else were. He will sit on his can and drain your company out of, $28,000.

I fell for that in 2002 when I was laid off, and I listened to people about "Oh you have to register for unemployment right away". My resume was toxic, after I did that. Before that I never had a problem in marketing my self for a job. But as soon as I went into the "Workforce One" systems, no company would even talk me.
Not to mention the huge ordeal you have to go through, is a greater hindrance to finding work, than if I were left to my own devices.
I spent more time keeping the required paper work involved and the in person appointments at the "Workforce One" location center. Than I did actually looking for work. The whole process works against professionals trying to pick their life back up and get back into the swing. The whole process was designed to place desperate low income people, into any menial job. Not to get people worth their meddle into a fitting high paying position.

That is what Monster, Laders, and other job boards are for. More over, you just came off a high paying position. If you don't have some cushion(I know saving is frowned upon with the current federal policy) then companies see you as a desperate liability, when you are job searching, and your credit has taken a hit in the last few months, because you didn't plan ahead for a rainy day.

My advice for any middle to higher income worker laid off, fake it until you make it. The minute you let the system know you're bleeding, the Sharks will be in for the kill. Your better panhandling, while you wait for the economy to improve. You can tell future interviewers you took a sabbatical, or time off to develop private ideas.

But stay away from the unemployment agency, unless you're ready to retire, or not work in your profession again, until notice.

Nomograph says

It's probably your negative attitude that is hurting you; employers go to great lengths to weed out negative people from the candidate pool. Pessimists are detrimental to productivity and poisonous to morale.

I totally like your thinking on this and I agree. If someone farts in an elevator instead of acting all negative force yourself to gulp in that brown gas and even smile! Maybe even if ask them if they could fart again. Pretend it smells like your favoritest supper! I guarantee as soon as you step off that elevator you will be 10X more successful and productive in life than you were when you got on!

just_passing_through says

The kid makes plenty of money and is using it to get a license flying helicopters.

I used to be an underwater welder in my twenties. How I got my start. I am now rich. I buy houses.

Indeed I feel that jobs are coming back. I made a change in career that doubled my current salary.

Since I purchased a home already and my old salary worked, this increase is all disposable income.

double does not mean as much since the dollar goes less than halfway to where it did.

buy houses

CL says

We do! That's why I just hired a super-sunny dispositioned individual. Almost entirely for morale!

I find these people tend to be on serious medication or are just plain old dorks.

Nomograph says

Pessimists seldom realize they are pessimists; they always claim to be "realists."

I believe in being a "realist". Trust me, if I really think that things are going great, I'd be the first to tell you.

Optimism is great during good economic times. But if you're always optimistic no matter what, then you're just deluding yourself. Both optimists and pessimists only see half of the equation. Realists look at real world data and are capable of changing their mind.

Realists asks for the unfiltered data, that the chart was comprised from.

SFace says

The next follow-up leading indicator will be consumer confidence which I predict will be up.

Here it is.

http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in January, increased in February. The Index now stands at 70.8 (1985=100), up from 61.5 in January. The Present Situation Index increased to 45.0 from 38.8. The Expectations Index rose to 88.0 from 76.7 in January.

next up, February jobs report, I expect around 200K.

It is developing nicely except gas.

TPB says

robertoaribas says

bring on $4 gas, my properties are all located near light rail and/or close in to employment centers. I ride my bicycle to work..

Wow Robert, you don't say? What is your secret for being unscathed with the important drawbacks of higher gas prices. Like paying double for minimal food, than we were before this all started, because gas is more expensive, everyone is paying 20% inflation a year, for everything across the board, as a direct result of our last and current President Rat fink bastards selling the American people out to Wallstreet and greedy ass speculators.

I think that's great Robert, you live in your own little Snow Globe, wow, no I mean WOW! how in the hell did you fit your over inflated since of bike riding self, in such a little space?

William E Baughb

+1

SFace says

Jobs are coming back!!!

But,Are home prices coming back???

Jobs are coming back? Pay off debt! Pay off debt! Pay off debt!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As my marketing prof used to say twenty five years ago...IT DEPENDS. Our top storage guy at my present employer (he's the best I've ever known) says good systems engineering talent is always in demand. It's about a lot of things. Technical knowledge is the job but compatibility with other members of the team and then a willingness and ability to learn and adapt must all be part of the mix. You'd be stunned and amazed by the number of people I've worked with in this business who I would not admit to my home. It's scary.

bubblesitter says

SFace says

Jobs are coming back!!!

But,Are home prices coming back???

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

A former management prof of mine was an acquaintance of Louis Rukeyser who always said people had been betting against us since 1776 and they were always wrong. Warren Buffett will tell you the exact same thing.

People who walk around crowing about 99 percenters are either morons or trying to manipulate the rest of us. I'm not persuaded. If America is done, why do people keep flooding in here from Asia? Why do you think all those Asian students are spending their time and parents money at Berkeley for if not to get out there and make money?

Do we have problems? Yeah. Our currency is shit and we have to fix that, probably with another recession. Remember 1980-1982? That's gonna happen again and it HAS to because we can't get from where we are right now to a growth economy. The Fed says there is no inflation. They quit reporting the level of M3 in 2005 and then we took food and fuel out of the consumer price index. I mean, what in the hell else do most people buy?

Look for Paul Volcker, Act II. You heard it here first. He may not be the guy sitting at the desk testifying before Congress but he'll draw the map. You just watch and see.