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Best Cities To Buy, Best Cities To Rent


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2012 Apr 18, 3:30am   63,335 views  118 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

Using more than 5 million rents and prices, here are cities in the US ranked from best to worst deals for buyers, expressed as number of months of average rent it takes to buy an average house.

Best deal for buyers is El Mirage, AZ.

+------------------------+-------+--------+
| city                   | state | months |
+------------------------+-------+--------+
| El Mirage              | AZ    |     92 |
| Youngtown              | AZ    |     93 |
| Sun City               | CA    |    109 |
| Laguna Woods           | CA    |    109 |
| Tolleson               | AZ    |    110 |
| Buckeye                | AZ    |    112 |
| Adelanto               | CA    |    112 |
| Maricopa               | AZ    |    113 |
| North Las Vegas        | NV    |    113 |
| Philadelphia           | PA    |    114 |
| Victorville            | CA    |    114 |
| Hesperia               | CA    |    115 |
| Winter Haven           | FL    |    118 |
| Laveen                 | AZ    |    120 |
| Champaign              | IL    |    121 |
| Avondale               | AZ    |    121 |
| Rialto                 | CA    |    121 |
| Lancaster              | CA    |    128 |
| Moreno Valley          | CA    |    128 |
| Antioch                | CA    |    135 |
| Reno                   | NV    |    137 |
| Glendale               | AZ    |    141 |
| Sun City               | AZ    |    144 |
| Palmdale               | CA    |    145 |
| Surprise               | AZ    |    148 |
| Fontana                | CA    |    152 |
| Tulare                 | CA    |    153 |
| San Pablo              | CA    |    154 |
| Tracy                  | CA    |    155 |
| Vallejo                | CA    |    157 |
| Oakley                 | CA    |    157 |
| Queen Creek            | AZ    |    157 |
| College Station        | TX    |    158 |
| Hercules               | CA    |    160 |
| Evansville             | IN    |    162 |
| Salinas                | CA    |    163 |
| National City          | CA    |    164 |
| Las Vegas              | NV    |    164 |
| Pacoima                | CA    |    166 |
| Peoria                 | AZ    |    170 |
| Yuma                   | AZ    |    170 |
| Rancho Cucamonga       | CA    |    170 |
| Gilbert                | AZ    |    174 |
| Suisun City            | CA    |    175 |
| Columbia               | SC    |    178 |
| Kennewick              | WA    |    178 |
| Chino                  | CA    |    180 |
| Corona                 | CA    |    181 |
| American Canyon        | CA    |    182 |
| Providence             | RI    |    182 |
| Rochester              | MN    |    183 |
| Spanaway               | WA    |    184 |
| Goodyear               | AZ    |    185 |
| Yelm                   | WA    |    185 |
| Beaumont               | CA    |    185 |
| Pittsburg              | CA    |    186 |
| Lawrence               | KS    |    188 |
| Fresno                 | CA    |    188 |
| Litchfield Park        | AZ    |    190 |
| Vacaville              | CA    |    190 |
| Citrus Heights         | CA    |    190 |
| Frederick              | MD    |    190 |
| Rancho Cordova         | CA    |    191 |
| Springfield            | MO    |    191 |
| Ypsilanti              | MI    |    192 |
| Denver                 | CO    |    192 |
| Orting                 | WA    |    192 |
| San Marcos             | TX    |    192 |
| Emeryville             | CA    |    193 |
| Tempe                  | AZ    |    197 |
| Grove City             | OH    |    198 |
| Lincoln                | NE    |    199 |
| Anthem                 | AZ    |    200 |
| Salem                  | OR    |    201 |
| Temecula               | CA    |    201 |
| Canyon Country         | CA    |    201 |
| Phoenix                | AZ    |    202 |
| Tallahassee            | FL    |    202 |
| Modesto                | CA    |    203 |
| Orlando                | FL    |    204 |
| Mesa                   | AZ    |    204 |
| Inglewood              | CA    |    206 |
| Rohnert Park           | CA    |    207 |
| Richmond               | CA    |    210 |
| Stanton                | CA    |    211 |
| Carson                 | CA    |    212 |
| Ithaca                 | NY    |    212 |
| Banning                | CA    |    213 |
| Athens                 | GA    |    214 |
| Brentwood              | CA    |    214 |
| Pomona                 | CA    |    214 |
| Chandler               | AZ    |    215 |
| Winston Salem          | NC    |    217 |
| Stockton               | CA    |    218 |
| Winter Park            | FL    |    220 |
| Panorama City          | CA    |    222 |
| Graham                 | WA    |    222 |
| Fredericksburg         | VA    |    222 |
| Sun City West          | AZ    |    222 |
| Indianapolis           | IN    |    223 |
| Baldwin Park           | CA    |    223 |
| Sacramento             | CA    |    224 |
| Sylmar                 | CA    |    225 |
| Azusa                  | CA    |    225 |
| Glen Burnie            | MD    |    226 |
| Spring Valley          | CA    |    226 |
| Chula Vista            | CA    |    227 |
| Concord                | CA    |    227 |
| Honolulu               | HI    |    227 |
| Portland               | ME    |    227 |
| Beaverton              | OR    |    227 |
| Sierra Vista           | AZ    |    227 |
| Norwalk                | CA    |    229 |
| Hillsboro              | OR    |    229 |
| Gwynn Oak              | MD    |    230 |
| El Sobrante            | CA    |    231 |
| Hollister              | CA    |    232 |
| Columbus               | OH    |    233 |
| Bonney Lake            | WA    |    233 |
| Aliso Viejo            | CA    |    234 |
| Lacey                  | WA    |    235 |
| Marysville             | WA    |    235 |
| Seal Beach             | CA    |    236 |
| Charlottesville        | VA    |    241 |
| Reseda                 | CA    |    242 |
| Rochester              | NY    |    242 |
| San Luis Obispo        | CA    |    243 |
| Manteca                | CA    |    245 |
| Newark                 | CA    |    246 |
| Lakeside               | CA    |    246 |
| Fort Collins           | CO    |    246 |
| San Marcos             | CA    |    247 |
| Pinole                 | CA    |    247 |
| Fairfield              | CA    |    248 |
| Winnetka               | CA    |    248 |
| Rancho Santa Margarita | CA    |    249 |
| Cerritos               | CA    |    250 |
| Centralia              | WA    |    250 |
| Florence               | AZ    |    251 |
| La Mirada              | CA    |    253 |
| Albuquerque            | NM    |    254 |
| Orange                 | CA    |    256 |
| Valencia               | CA    |    257 |
| Big Bear City          | CA    |    258 |
| Tucson                 | AZ    |    258 |
| New Haven              | CT    |    258 |
| Hayward                | CA    |    259 |
| Flagstaff              | AZ    |    259 |
| North Hills            | CA    |    259 |
| Lakewood               | CA    |    260 |
| Oceanside              | CA    |    260 |
| Everett                | WA    |    261 |
| Gainesville            | FL    |    262 |
| Snohomish              | WA    |    262 |
| Union City             | CA    |    262 |
| Daly City              | CA    |    263 |
| Jacksonville           | FL    |    263 |
| El Cajon               | CA    |    263 |
| Auburn                 | WA    |    266 |
| Redding                | CA    |    266 |
| Discovery Bay          | CA    |    266 |
| Granada Hills          | CA    |    267 |
| Gardena                | CA    |    267 |
| Federal Way            | WA    |    268 |
| Lake Stevens           | WA    |    269 |
| South San Francisco    | CA    |    269 |
| Shelton                | WA    |    270 |
| Kent                   | WA    |    271 |
| Santa Clarita          | CA    |    273 |
| Colorado Springs       | CO    |    273 |
| Benicia                | CA    |    274 |
| Cookeville             | TN    |    275 |
| Mountlake Terrace      | WA    |    275 |
| San Bruno              | CA    |    275 |
| Granite Falls          | WA    |    276 |
| Boulder                | CO    |    278 |
| Wilmington             | NC    |    280 |
| Marina Del Rey         | CA    |    282 |
| Tacoma                 | WA    |    282 |
| La Mesa                | CA    |    282 |
| Anaheim                | CA    |    282 |
| Bellflower             | CA    |    282 |
| Olympia                | WA    |    283 |
| Eugene                 | OR    |    283 |
| Puyallup               | WA    |    285 |
| Dublin                 | CA    |    285 |
| Acton                  | CA    |    287 |
| Port Orchard           | WA    |    288 |
| San Leandro            | CA    |    290 |
| Murfreesboro           | TN    |    293 |
| Renton                 | WA    |    295 |
| Tustin                 | CA    |    296 |
| Bothell                | WA    |    296 |
| Nashville              | TN    |    296 |
| Bremerton              | WA    |    296 |
| Lake Forest            | CA    |    297 |
| La Habra               | CA    |    297 |
| Mission Viejo          | CA    |    298 |
| Garden Grove           | CA    |    298 |
| Cave Creek             | AZ    |    298 |
| Canoga Park            | CA    |    298 |
| Albany                 | CA    |    298 |
| San Pedro              | CA    |    299 |
| Monroe                 | WA    |    300 |
| Irvine                 | CA    |    300 |
| Vista                  | CA    |    301 |
| Kingston               | WA    |    303 |
| Ballwin                | MO    |    303 |
| Gilroy                 | CA    |    303 |
| Imperial Beach         | CA    |    303 |
| Henderson              | NV    |    304 |
| Spokane                | WA    |    305 |
| Simi Valley            | CA    |    305 |
| Santa Ana              | CA    |    306 |
| Poway                  | CA    |    307 |
| San Diego              | CA    |    308 |
| Playa Del Rey          | CA    |    308 |
| Buena Park             | CA    |    309 |
| Ann Arbor              | MI    |    309 |
| Camarillo              | CA    |    310 |
| Hacienda Heights       | CA    |    310 |
| Pleasant Hill          | CA    |    311 |
| Cypress                | CA    |    312 |
| San Jose               | CA    |    313 |
| Chatsworth             | CA    |    313 |
| Placentia              | CA    |    313 |
| Milpitas               | CA    |    314 |
| Tumwater               | WA    |    314 |
| Oakland                | CA    |    315 |
| Van Nuys               | CA    |    315 |
| West Covina            | CA    |    316 |
| Duvall                 | WA    |    317 |
| Fullerton              | CA    |    317 |
| Maple Valley           | WA    |    317 |
| Woodland Hills         | CA    |    321 |
| Alameda                | CA    |    322 |
| Stanwood               | WA    |    323 |
| Arlington              | WA    |    323 |
| Fremont                | CA    |    327 |
| Westminster            | CA    |    329 |
| North Hollywood        | CA    |    331 |
| North Bend             | WA    |    333 |
| Redmond                | WA    |    333 |
| Lynnwood               | WA    |    334 |
| Berkeley               | CA    |    334 |
| Culver City            | CA    |    334 |
| San Ramon              | CA    |    335 |
| Hawthorne              | CA    |    335 |
| Scottsdale             | AZ    |    335 |
| Santa Clara            | CA    |    336 |
| Bend                   | OR    |    337 |
| Martinez               | CA    |    339 |
| Poulsbo                | WA    |    342 |
| Kenmore                | WA    |    342 |
| Livermore              | CA    |    344 |
| Lakewood               | WA    |    344 |
| Woodinville            | WA    |    345 |
| Silverdale             | WA    |    346 |
| Novato                 | CA    |    347 |
| Oak Harbor             | WA    |    348 |
| Santa Rosa             | CA    |    348 |
| Long Beach             | CA    |    350 |
| San Francisco          | CA    |    352 |
| Brea                   | CA    |    356 |
| Pacifica               | CA    |    357 |
| Half Moon Bay          | CA    |    358 |
| Laguna Niguel          | CA    |    358 |
| Alhambra               | CA    |    358 |
| Northridge             | CA    |    359 |
| Monrovia               | CA    |    359 |
| Glendale               | CA    |    359 |
| Ocean Shores           | WA    |    360 |
| Camano Island          | WA    |    360 |
| Walnut Creek           | CA    |    362 |
| La Verne               | CA    |    362 |
| Castro Valley          | CA    |    365 |
| Savannah               | GA    |    367 |
| Seattle                | WA    |    367 |
| Bainbridge Island      | WA    |    367 |
| Altadena               | CA    |    369 |
| San Mateo              | CA    |    370 |
| Costa Mesa             | CA    |    371 |
| Claremont              | CA    |    371 |
| Watsonville            | CA    |    372 |
| San Anselmo            | CA    |    373 |
| University Place       | WA    |    373 |
| Torrance               | CA    |    373 |
| Port Ludlow            | WA    |    377 |
| Mountain View          | CA    |    378 |
| Carlsbad               | CA    |    384 |
| Burbank                | CA    |    384 |
| Bellingham             | WA    |    385 |
| Pasadena               | CA    |    388 |
| Los Alamitos           | CA    |    388 |
| Sunnyvale              | CA    |    389 |
| Carmichael             | CA    |    390 |
| Valley Village         | CA    |    391 |
| Edmonds                | WA    |    391 |
| Fallbrook              | CA    |    392 |
| Snoqualmie             | WA    |    393 |
| Issaquah               | WA    |    393 |
| Petaluma               | CA    |    395 |
| Los Angeles            | CA    |    396 |
| Campbell               | CA    |    398 |
| Morgan Hill            | CA    |    399 |
| Rowland Heights        | CA    |    402 |
| El Cerrito             | CA    |    403 |
| Kirkland               | WA    |    407 |
| Agoura Hills           | CA    |    411 |
| Napa                   | CA    |    412 |
| Sammamish              | WA    |    413 |
| Escondido              | CA    |    416 |
| Millbrae               | CA    |    417 |
| Redmond                | OR    |    419 |
| San Rafael             | CA    |    421 |
| Anacortes              | WA    |    424 |
| San Carlos             | CA    |    425 |
| Laguna Hills           | CA    |    426 |
| Bellevue               | WA    |    429 |
| Huntington Beach       | CA    |    432 |
| Santa Monica           | CA    |    433 |
| Encino                 | CA    |    437 |
| Rancho Palos Verdes    | CA    |    438 |
| Moraga                 | CA    |    445 |
| Alpine                 | CA    |    445 |
| Carnation              | WA    |    445 |
| Enumclaw               | WA    |    446 |
| Danville               | CA    |    447 |
| Mukilteo               | WA    |    447 |
| Healdsburg             | CA    |    449 |
| South Pasadena         | CA    |    454 |
| Palm Springs           | CA    |    456 |
| Redwood City           | CA    |    457 |
| Aptos                  | CA    |    460 |
| Alamo                  | CA    |    462 |
| Redondo Beach          | CA    |    466 |
| Santa Cruz             | CA    |    469 |
| San Juan Capistrano    | CA    |    469 |
| Vashon                 | WA    |    476 |
| Mill Valley            | CA    |    478 |
| Cupertino              | CA    |    478 |
| Tarzana                | CA    |    478 |
| Capitola               | CA    |    479 |
| Sausalito              | CA    |    489 |
| Sherman Oaks           | CA    |    490 |
| Chico                  | CA    |    493 |
| Gig Harbor             | WA    |    497 |
| Pleasanton             | CA    |    499 |
| Studio City            | CA    |    503 |
| Encinitas              | CA    |    506 |
| Sonoma                 | CA    |    506 |
| Mercer Island          | WA    |    510 |
| West Hollywood         | CA    |    516 |
| Arcadia                | CA    |    522 |
| Monterey               | CA    |    527 |
| Palo Alto              | CA    |    537 |
| Venice                 | CA    |    538 |
| Saratoga               | CA    |    542 |
| Belmont                | CA    |    544 |
| Langley                | WA    |    545 |
| Los Gatos              | CA    |    548 |
| Fountain Hills         | AZ    |    550 |
| Menlo Park             | CA    |    573 |
| Dana Point             | CA    |    644 |
| Calabasas              | CA    |    677 |
| San Clemente           | CA    |    689 |
| Belvedere Tiburon      | CA    |    711 |
| Manhattan Beach        | CA    |    722 |
| Hermosa Beach          | CA    |    726 |
| Beverly Hills          | CA    |    752 |
| Laguna Beach           | CA    |    766 |
| Goleta                 | CA    |    771 |
| Burlingame             | CA    |    780 |
| La Jolla               | CA    |    799 |
| Malibu                 | CA    |    845 |
| Lafayette              | CA    |    850 |
| Newport Beach          | CA    |    863 |
+------------------------+-------+--------+

Worst deal for buyers is Newport Beach, CA.

If any reporters want to use this for a story, permission is granted as long as the story includes a live clickable link back to Patrick.net.

#ironmanisdansbitch

« First        Comments 53 - 92 of 118       Last »     Search these comments

53   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 19, 12:32pm  

BoomAndBustCycle says

You know you should put up the ZILLOW price of these rentals next to their rental prices. Zillow has actually gotten much more accurate this past year in their zestimates.

Zillow is nothing but inaccurate to me. I have only used it a few times and it is always laughable. It said my home was valued at 300K the day I sold it for 540K.

55   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 19, 12:38pm  

Bigsby says

Go to Craigslist and show me say a 1600 sq ft house in 93940 that is renting for $1000. They don't exist. I do see a centrally located APARTMENT listed for $1600 though. A whole 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom with 800sq ft of glorious living. Oh, sorry, there is a property listed in the sub 1k range. That beauty is a whopping 390sq ft and a mere $995.

Again, just words describing data instead of the real data to back up your claims. You are challenging Patricks data. He has it already and you can see it. What you have is just words with nothing referenced. Keep typing your own words. If you type enough then everyone has to believe your conclusions. That is the way the lazy mind works. ;)

56   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 19, 12:49pm  

It is absolutely amazing how crazy people get when the cumulative data collected over 2 years does not agree with their few experiences. One thing people fail to consider is that you know your situation to a high degree of truth (that is if you don't lie to yourself), but there is a lot of distorted information sent around even from your close friends. Many people don't want to say they overpaid for a house, or they pay little to rent. It is very similar to the fact when people talk about investing in stocks they always talk about them winning. Add to this distortion all the realtor and home builder propaganda out there and it makes it really hard for anyone to create an honest conclusion. Because I am in a position to buy a house in the bay area I have made it almost another job of mine to cut through this crap. This thread and how many people are all bent out of shape because the data doesn't make them look good, is just another distorted view on reality to me. Rather than dig into the data and understand the situation, it is much easier to just call it false.

I'm sure there are differences in the quality of rentals verses for sale homes that would merit a correcting factor, but nothing that large IMHO. If you think the values are off by 30-50% then maybe your assumptions also need to be scrutinized. It is much easier to criticize everyone else rather than turn the mirror on yourself though. Much in part to how the BA works in general.

57   Bigsby   2012 Apr 19, 12:53pm  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

Go to Craigslist and show me say a 1600 sq ft house in 93940 that is renting for $1000. They don't exist. I do see a centrally located APARTMENT listed for $1600 though. A whole 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom with 800sq ft of glorious living. Oh, sorry, there is a property listed in the sub 1k range. That beauty is a whopping 390sq ft and a mere $995.

Again, just words describing data instead of the real data to back up your claims. You are challenging Patricks data. He has it already and you can see it. What you have is just words with nothing referenced. Keep typing your own words. If you type enough then everyone has to believe your conclusions. That is the way the lazy mind works. ;)

What do you mean nothing referenced? Good grief. You posted one property that you supposedly thought confirmed Patrick's data. It does the exact opposite. Do you not trust your own eyesight? Look at the prices and rentals yourself rather than repeating the same old line. The prices on MLS and the prices on Craigslist show that the relationship between the two is nowhere near 527. Just because somebody says they took data from Craigslist for the last 2 years does not make that data accurate. We rented for seven years in Monterey before buying. I know the rental prices and I know the purchase prices in the area. I rather doubt 527 would have been an accurate figure at the very peak of the market. It's so far off the mark now that it is ridiculous.

58   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 19, 12:54pm  

BoomAndBustCycle says

Zillow has actually gotten much more accurate this past year in their zestimates.

http://monterey.craigslist.org/apa/2954408531.html
Here's a $1300 3/2 rental ... 262 8th St, Soledad, CA

The ZESTIMATE is $121K for the property...

If this was actually true I would drive down to Soledad tomorrow and purchase this place as a rental. I don't see me driving anywhere tomorrow though, because either the ZESTIMATE is bogus or the rental amount is too expensive. 121K is Phoenix pricing.

59   Bigsby   2012 Apr 19, 1:01pm  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I'm sure there are differences in the quality of rentals verses for sale homes that would merit a correcting factor, but nothing that large IMHO. If you think the values are off by 30-50% then maybe your assumptions also need to be scrutinized. It is much easier to criticize everyone else rather than turn the mirror on yourself though. Much in part to how the BA works in general.

Er, no. Go to Craigslist and find me a the equivalent of a $500,000 house in Monterey that rents for $950. Show me a $1m house that rents for $1900. They simply don't exist. Nowhere near. If I knew from experience that Patrick's figures were true, then I wouldn't be posting, but I know that they are far from correct. Very far.

60   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 19, 1:11pm  

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I'm sure there are differences in the quality of rentals verses for sale homes that would merit a correcting factor, but nothing that large IMHO. If you think the values are off by 30-50% then maybe your assumptions also need to be scrutinized. It is much easier to criticize everyone else rather than turn the mirror on yourself though. Much in part to how the BA works in general.

Er, no. Go to Craigslist and find me a the equivalent of a $500,000 house in Monterey that rents for $950. Show me a $1m house that rents for $1900. They simply don't exist. Nowhere near. If I knew from experience that Patrick's figures were true, then I wouldn't be posting, but I know that they are far from correct. Very far.

Well, that is not what the data says. You can type it all you want, but the data says otherwise. Nice how to can easily criticize someone else's data without anything to back it up except words. Very nice.

61   Bigsby   2012 Apr 19, 1:20pm  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Well, that is not what the data says. You can type it all you want, but the data says otherwise. Nice how to can easily criticize someone else's data without anything to back it up except words. Very nice.

And as I keep saying, his data is obviously wrong in terms of being representative. This house, just round the corner from me, went pending almost immediately:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5-Linda-Vista-Dr-Monterey-CA-93940/19311805_zpid/

I'd say it was pretty aggressively priced and that is why it has been snapped up quickly. But apparently, that property rents for below $1000 according to what you are saying. The reality is that it would rent for well over $2000. That doesn't make it good value in a rent/price calculator scenario, but it also quite obviously doesn't mean it matches the 527 figure. So like I keep saying, the reality is way below that number. And yes, I could do this for every single property in Monterey that is currently listed on MLS.

62   SFace   2012 Apr 19, 1:45pm  

You know this is a joke just spot checking the #'s.

Lafayette @ 850, really?

A 850K house rents for 1K? really?

It's a craigslist data dump. The average ad for rent on CL is a one/two bedroom apartment.

63   rooemoore   2012 Apr 19, 1:48pm  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Well, that is not what the data says. You can type it all you want, but the data says otherwise. Nice how to can easily criticize someone else's data without anything to back it up except words. Very nice.

The data Patrick posted, while interesting, really says very little other than homes are expensive in nice places. The fact that a crappy studio apartment is being measured against an ocean front mansion is, well, useless. Patrick says he believes in aggregate these extremes cancel each other out, but I think he's not correct.

Look at home rentals in Marin. I am very familiar with this area because my brother has been renting there. In good school districts, a home that sells in the 750k - 800k range rents for about $3500 - $4000.

Since buying would cost a bit more, one would think that you should rent. But most of the buyers there are just waiting to sell when prices go up. In my brother's situation, he was forced out because the home went into a short sale. He had to move out of the school district. He is now looking to buy, but he wishes he'd bought last year. His wife and kids do too.

My situation is a bit unique in that I am both a renter and a landlord. I agree that it is foolish to overpay for a property, but my view of "overpaying" is a bit different than many here.

Buying in the so-called fortress neighborhoods in CA is still a good investment if you do it right. This is what I am presently looking to do and why I come to this site.

Bigsby is right. This data is not useful because it is not comparing apples to apples.

64   Patrick   2012 Apr 19, 2:19pm  

rowemoore says

The data Patrick posted, while interesting, really says very little other than homes are expensive in nice places.

I think you missed the one and only point of all of this.

The data says that houses in expensive areas are not merely expensive -- they are more expensive than renting the same thing. By a huge amount.

Which is irrational.

My own theory (well, I picked up the idea from John Talbott) is that those ridiculous prices are driven entirely by status-seeking. You just don't get status points from your friends by renting, no matter how nice the house is.

65   rooemoore   2012 Apr 19, 2:32pm  


rowemoore says

The data Patrick posted, while interesting, really says very little other than homes are expensive in nice places.

I think you missed the one and only point of all of this.

The data says that houses in expensive areas are not merely expensive -- they are more expensive than renting the same thing. By a huge amount.

Which is irrational.

My point is that it is not the same thing. You said this yourself:


rowemoore says

First of all, are you comparing apples to apples?

No, just rents to prices no matter what kind of place it is

The kind of place it is does matter. And the comps get even more skewed because most rentals are apartments and most sales are single family homes.

From a strictly anecdotal view, I think renting is a slightly better deal in an apples to apples situation. But often if it is a single family home in a nice neighborhood the landlord is probably going to sell or move back in before you're ready to leave.

66   dunnross   2012 Apr 19, 5:06pm  

orbitron says

Another example: I don't know what the specific historic p/e in Santa Clara is, but it is currently possible to buy a 600K (sometimes less) house that rents for about 2500. That's a p/e of 20 which is in line with general historic p/e-s.

That's the problem with you people. You seem to think that there is some "magic" historic p/e which must be the same all the time, but, the fact is, when the last time the stock market was at its historic low, it was 1933, and all stocks, across the board had a PE ratio of 6. If all areas had a PE of 6 right now, we'd be back to 1975 nominal levels.

67   BoomAndBustCycle   2012 Apr 19, 5:30pm  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

BoomAndBustCycle says

Zillow has actually gotten much more accurate this past year in their zestimates.

http://monterey.craigslist.org/apa/2954408531.html

Here's a $1300 3/2 rental ... 262 8th St, Soledad, CA

The ZESTIMATE is $121K for the property...

If this was actually true I would drive down to Soledad tomorrow and purchase this place as a rental. I don't see me driving anywhere tomorrow though, because either the ZESTIMATE is bogus or the rental amount is too expensive. 121K is Phoenix pricing.

Better start up your car! Why dont you just zillow the property and neighborhood? Its not that difficult. The house 2 doors down sold for $100k and this house sold for $135k in 2008. Look at the data. The schools must suck or it must be a bad part of soledad. I do not know the area, but you cannot deny owning would be much more affordable than renting.

We are at rental parity or better in almost all non-fortress communities in the US.

Rents could drop... But they are not in any meaningful way dropping now. Keep your head in the sand if you like, but renting in most areas is more expensive than owning.

68   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 19, 8:09pm  

Bigsby says

You posted one property that you supposedly thought confirmed Patrick's data. It does the exact opposite.

I posted one property to show the stupidity of doing that. Patrick has crunched though the whole data for the last 2 years. And all you jokers are doing to punch holes in it is to talk about your own piece of crap property. Glad you saw the stupidity, because it was right out there in front of you. Now, can we go back to talking about the real data? Or do we have to keep talking about what you think about your house situation. ;)

69   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 19, 8:19pm  

BoomAndBustCycle says

Better start up your car! Why dont you just zillow the property and neighborhood? Its not that difficult. The house 2 doors down sold for $100k and this house sold for $135k in 2008. Look at the data. The schools must suck or it must be a bad part of soledad. I do not know the area, but you cannot deny owning would be much more affordable than renting.

The list that Patrick compiled is real people selling properties and renting properties. Real live people, not some Zillow estimate site that is prone to errors. Zillow the houses yourself. You knuckleheads are the ones challenging the data and then asking others to do the work for you. The data looks perfect for my area. I believe it is near perfect for other areas from what I can tell. I am not challenging it, you and the other inspector gadgets in this group are.

San Mateo = 360

My rent = 3K for a house that can sell for 1.2m+

Let me do the math for you, cause it is tough. 1.2m/3k = 400. I'll break it down better cause I jumped ahead a few steps there. 1200/3k. First we can start with taking the 3 and dividing it into the 12. It comes out to a nice 4 value. Now we have two 0's left and we can just take them both and tack them on the end of the 4 we already have. That gives us the 400! What was the number that Patrick posted again from the craigslist database? 360 you say. Wow, that is pretty close.

For months now, all you fools have been saying rents are rising, buy now or you will get priced out. Now the raw data is too shocking for you to comprehend. Tough to get that reality slap I'm sure. Some of the side effects of having the weight of a 30yr over-leverage note on your back. Sorry for your loss.

70   Bigsby   2012 Apr 19, 8:46pm  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

You posted one property that you supposedly thought confirmed Patrick's data. It does the exact opposite.

I posted one property to show the stupidity of doing that. Patrick has crunched though the whole data for the last 2 years. And all you jokers are doing to punch holes in it is to talk about your own piece of crap property. Glad you saw the stupidity, because it was right out there in front of you. Now, can we go back to talking about the real data? Or do we have to keep talking about what you think about your house situation. ;)

Hmm, if you post a link to demonstrate the pointlessness of referencing a single property, then you'd be better served showing a rental that actually supported your argument, don't you think?
And the only stupidity here is your dogged persistence in ignoring the blatantly obvious. Are you so wrapped up in your own confirmation bias that everything has to tally with that at the expense of considering the like-for-like comparisons that are freely available for you to check? Really, what is so difficult to understand? His 'data' simply doesn't reflect the market. I don't know how or what information he gathered - whether he's taken the whole area, including Pebble beach, Carmel, Big Sur... and added those in to get inflated values on houses for sale and then contrasted them with a preponderance of low end apartment rentals or something else. BUT for the hundredth time, Monterey does not have a housing to rental ratio of 527. Why is it such a problem for you to accept that? It doesn't threaten you. It doesn't change your life. It simply indicates that the information that Patrick gathered for Monterey is seriously flawed.

71   Bigsby   2012 Apr 19, 8:55pm  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Let me do the math for you, cause it is tough. 1.2m/3k = 400. I'll break it down better cause I jumped ahead a few steps there. 1200/3k. First we can start with taking the 3 and dividing it into the 12. It comes out to a nice 4 value. Now we have two 0's left and we can just take them both and tack them on the end of the 4 we already have. That gives us the 400! What was the number that Patrick posted again from the craigslist database? 360 you say. Wow, that is pretty close.

For months now, all you fools have been saying rents are rising, buy now or you will get priced out. Now the raw data is too shocking for you to comprehend. Tough to get that reality slap I'm sure. Some of the side effects of having the weight of a 30yr over-leverage note on your back. Sorry for your loss.

You seem very angry. That and very defensive. The figures might work for your area. They don't for Monterey and seemingly other areas. Fine. Why not wind your neck back in and accept that his data isn't entirely representative?
And I think most of us are capable of doing basic maths, though judging by your use of that Soledad drive property, I'd say you'd benefit from hitting the books.

72   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 20, 12:24am  

Bigsby says

Hmm, if you post a link to demonstrate the pointless of referencing a single property, then you'd be better served showing a rental that actually supported your argument, don't you think?
And the only stupidity here is your dogged persistence in ignoring the blatantly obvious. Are you so wrapped up in your own confirmation bias that everything has to tally with that at the expense of considering the like-for-like comparisons that are freely available for you to check?

You talking to me or yourself? That type of logic would be better served talking into the mirror. I am ready to buy. I have no bias, only the bias of the current data and the trends. I want to buy, but will only do it when the data says it is a good time. You, my friend, are littered with a biased tone. I give up, can't spend anymore time on you. Good luck to you.

73   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 20, 12:30am  

Bigsby says

You seem very angry.

I am very angry, we all should be. We have been and continue to be lied to by many people in this industry. I have seen families destroyed financially and the stress leading to breakups. I have seen people who were lied to believe that they can afford something find out that they couldn't. I have been lied to my face by these same people over and over. It still happens, here on this site and when I step out into the housing market in the BA. Everyone is on the take, no one has your best interest at heart. The housing market is all about profit, commissions, make it big without hard work, etc. etc. It has ruined this country, don't you see it. It is continuing to ruin this country. If I could I would destroy the current system and put all the realtors out of work. They are horrible and don't even realize how much pain and stress they have caused. I need to hit something alright, and it is not the books. It is the Mercedes driver that talks to the family that is just barely making a living and telling them that real estate will make you rich. They are not honest people, and you are close to joining them with your dribble. Look at the data, challenge the data with logical reasoning, but don't just wave your hand and try to make it all disappear. Data lives and is real, it can be challenged properly, but you are no where near proper in your arguments.

Done

74   Bigsby   2012 Apr 20, 12:36am  


rowemoore says

The data Patrick posted, while interesting, really says very little other than homes are expensive in nice places.

I think you missed the one and only point of all of this.

The data says that houses in expensive areas are not merely expensive -- they are more expensive than renting the same thing. By a huge amount.

Which is irrational.

This may well be true, but by your own admission, the data you collected doesn't actually demonstrate that. You haven't gathered data on like-for-like properties, you've simply lumped everything together, which has completely skewed the results and basically made them worthless. Better to just stick with the rent/buy calculator.

75   Bigsby   2012 Apr 20, 12:41am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

You talking to me or yourself? That type of logic would be better served talking into the mirror. I am ready to buy. I have no bias, only the bias of the current data and the trends. I want to buy, but will only do it when the data says it is a good time. You, my friend, are littered with a biased tone. I give up, can't spend anymore time on you. Good luck to you.

I'm not biased, I was simply pointing out that if you are using this data to form an impression of value, then you are being seriously misled. The data flat out doesn't demonstrate that if I bought house X for Y price, then I'd be paying Z amount over the equivalent rental price. In that regard, the data is totally useless, and Patrick has basically said the same. It seems that it is you who is the only one unwilling to accept that.

76   clambo   2012 Apr 20, 12:46am  

Aptos is interesting because I didn't know you could rent there and the houses are more expensive than anywhere here until you are down near Carmel.

77   Bigsby   2012 Apr 20, 12:49am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I am very angry, we all should be. We have been and continue to be lied to by many people in this industry. I have seen families destroyed financially and the stress leading to breakups. I have seen people who were lied to believe that they can afford something find out that they couldn't. I have been lied to my face by these same people over and over. It still happens, here on this site and when I step out into the housing market in the BA. Everyone is on the take, no one has your best interest at heart.

And where does personal responsibility and basic financial decision making come into this? Realtors are in the business of selling houses. I didn't walk into buying a house trusting them. I went into it by making a clear decision on what I could afford and then buying (or actually waiting 7 years to buy) a house that was acceptable to me. Many people were seriously misled, but plenty more people threw common sense out of the window and tried to make a fast buck. I have sympathy for some, but not all. It's the biggest financial commitment pretty much all of us make. A lot of people clearly didn't think carefully enough about it during the bubble years. Many, many people are to blame for that, and that list includes many of the buyers themselves.

78   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 20, 12:50am  

Bigsby says

The data flat out doesn't demonstrate that if I bought house X for Y price, then I'd be paying Z amount over the equivalent rental price. In that regard, the data is totally useless, and Patrick has basically said the same. It seems that it is you who is the only one unwilling to accept that.

Big hand wave to make the data go away. Go away data, I don't like you. :)

79   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 20, 12:52am  

Bigsby says

Many, many people are to blame for that, and that list includes many of the buyers themselves.

Very true and I agree. That doesn't remove the anger I have for a corrupt institution that is not there to help people. I have enough anger for everyone. ;)

80   Bigsby   2012 Apr 20, 1:06am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

The data flat out doesn't demonstrate that if I bought house X for Y price, then I'd be paying Z amount over the equivalent rental price. In that regard, the data is totally useless, and Patrick has basically said the same. It seems that it is you who is the only one unwilling to accept that.

Big hand wave to make the data go away. Go away data, I don't like you. :)

You still appear to not get what I'm saying. It's not a matter of wanting the data to go away, it's a matter of the data being completely unrepresentative. It does not inform on the relative value of any given purchase in comparison to equivalent rentals. Patrick has said the same.

81   tatupu70   2012 Apr 20, 1:42am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Big hand wave to make the data go away. Go away data, I don't like you. :)

Do you seriously not get it? There have been at least 5 posters telling you the same thing. There is an OBVIOUS bias in the data. The data isn't lying, it's just not saying what you think it says. The methodology is flawed.

82   rooemoore   2012 Apr 20, 1:52am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

My rent = 3K for a house that can sell for 1.2m+

Either your landlord is a moron or really, really likes you, or (more likely) you are misrepresenting the value of the home you live in. I just padmapped San Mateo. First thing I noticed is there are very few homes for rent. This kinda sucks if the landlord wants to move back in and you need to quickly find another acceptable place in the same school district.

The second thing is that nothing that would sell over a Million is priced anywhere close to 3k per month. In Marin -area I am familiar with - a 1 million dollar home rents for about 5-6k. Depending on the home, it still may be a good deal to rent, but it is not the insane bargain you make it out to be.

I understand the bitterness of getting screwed, but not everyone who sells real estate is a complete asshole, and not everyone who made a stupid purchase is the poor victim. But yeah, most realtors, like most sales people in general, are often annoying.

http://www.padmapper.com/show.php?type=0&id=109818825&src=main

http://www.padmapper.com/show.php?type=0&id=109744905&src=main

http://www.padmapper.com/show.php?type=0&id=110222341&src=main

http://www.padmapper.com/show.php?type=0&id=110075966&src=main

http://www.padmapper.com/show.php?type=0&id=110001314&src=main

http://www.padmapper.com/show.php?type=0&id=109200613&src=main

http://www.padmapper.com/show.php?type=0&id=109308633&src=main

83   tiny tina   2012 Apr 20, 2:29am  

rowemoore says

Either your landlord is a moron or really, really likes you, or (more likely) you are misrepresenting the value of the home you live in. I just padmapped San Mateo.

Maybe he lives with his parents.

84   dublin hillz   2012 Apr 20, 2:31am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is the Mercedes driver that talks to the family that is just barely making a living and telling them that real estate will make you rich.

Yes, it is infuriating and all, the problem is that people don't analyze the situation. If you buy a house as an investment and take out a interest only loan hoping to get rich on it just by holding the property and then get wiped out financially, it is a way of karma teaching you a lesson and then one must atone for their sins of greed. However, lets not go overboard from this and assume that renting is better than buying in all cases. It isn't. It was until about 2009 in bay area, but afterwards, opportunites appeared where it is now possible to minimize lifetime housing costs when choosing to buy vs rent. There are many variables out there to analyze - monthly household income, job stability, commute, can payment be made if one person loses the job, quality of purchsed property vs rental property etc. The worst thing to do is to be an idealogue whether one is pro/anti renting/buying and closing the eyes to reality.

85   tiny tina   2012 Apr 20, 2:33am  

rowemoore says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

My rent = 3K for a house that can sell for 1.2m+

Either your landlord is a moron or really, really likes you, or (more likely) you are misrepresenting the value of the home you live in. I just padmapped San Mateo.

Just doing a quick search on Redfin, a 3/2 house of 1500 sq ft in Foster City likely would sell for $800k based on recent sales.

86   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 20, 3:57am  

tiny tina says

rowemoore says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

My rent = 3K for a house that can sell for 1.2m+

Either your landlord is a moron or really, really likes you, or (more likely) you are misrepresenting the value of the home you live in. I just padmapped San Mateo.

Just doing a quick search on Redfin, a 3/2 house of 1500 sq ft in Foster City likely would sell for $800k based on recent sales.

Try to find one on the water for 800k. Good luck.

87   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 20, 4:04am  

tiny tina says

Just doing a quick search on Redfin, a 3/2 house of 1500 sq ft in Foster City likely would sell for $800k based on recent sales.

Here are comparable houses to mine.

http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Foster-City/602-Bridgeport-Ln-100_81207952.htm

http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Foster-City/760-Coronado-Ln-100_81145696.htm

http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Foster-City/707-Matsonia-Dr-100_81209973.htm

Does my landlord like me? Sure, why shouldn't he. I pay on time. I take good care of the place. I treat the home as my own and have upgrade lots of stuff in my spare time. I don't pay for materials but use my time for free. It helps my living arrangements and the landlord doesn't mind the improvements. I already told you guys, Win-win and it has always been like that. There is lots of common ground between a renter and landlord if you try to understand both sides.

You can not believe me all you want. Truth is that I could find another house like the one I have in a few weeks if needed. That is small stuff to me and I don't spend a second worrying about it. I worry about my families safety and health, but the rest is nothing to me. :)

88   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 20, 4:18am  

dublin hillz says

Yes, it is infuriating and all, the problem is that people don't analyze the situation. If you buy a house as an investment and take out a interest only loan hoping to get rich on it just by holding the property and then get wiped out financially, it is a way of karma teaching you a lesson and then one must atone for their sins of greed.

I'd be fine it that was true. But my karma did nothing to the situation and doesn't need to be taught anything. The current system punishes us all for the greed of the few. Have you seen the debt we are running try to bail out this system of greed and corruption. That is why I am angry. If people want to go destroy themselves financially, then I wouldn't care. It is when they take the whole country on the cliff dive with them. I am affected, my children will be affect. My company is affect. We should be all sick of it. I still get fliers for 0% down, it needs to stop.

89   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 20, 4:57am  

rowemoore says

Either your landlord is a moron or really, really likes you, or (more likely) you are misrepresenting the value of the home you live in.

Believe what you want. But no misrepresenting here. 3 homes have sold on my street and one of the home is an exact copy of the one I rent. It is what it is. I don't need to lie. You also don't need to believe.

90   dublin hillz   2012 Apr 20, 5:20am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

The current system punishes us all for the greed of the few.

This brings up the issue of how to control bubbles in general. What about investors who did not participate in tech stock bubble in leading up to 2000? They still ended up as collateral damage even though they were more disciplined than money hungry "greater fools." Why should somebody for example who invested in telecom lose 20% of net worth while someone who invested in nasdaq stocks lost 50% or more in some cases? How can bubble activities which are fueled by greed and thoughts of easy money be curtailed?

92   clambo   2012 Apr 20, 5:33am  

A way to curtail a bubble is no credit to the person buying the bubble asset.
This tends to minimize the bubble forming.
No one pays out of pocket for medical treatment>medical cost bubble.
College loans are avaiable for large amounts>college cost bubble
Breathing and can hold a pen eligible for mortgage>house price bubble
Margin allowed100% in stocks (1929)>stock price bubble
There are other bubbles but a rule of thumb is that if you pay cash out of your own pocket for something you are more cautious.

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