patrick.net

So you're saying you couldn't find one?

I think the point has been proven.

There are retarded threads on Patrick.net, but this one is legendary.

Realtors are clowns debate style:

"Prices are falling!"

Goran_K says

Your logic only really applies to fringe cities where most people don't want to live because of commute times, low school scores, high crime, or a little of all of the above.

How do you know your shadow inventory isn't located in those same areas and not in good parts of the Bay Area?

Goran_K says

Your logic only really applies to fringe cities where most people don't want to live because of commute times, low school scores, high crime, or a little of all of the above.

check out recent sales in Piedmont. Most homes going quickly over asking.

http://www.sawbuck.com/sold/Bay_Area/94611/Piedmont/1728#zl_15/c_37.822645,-122.22975000000001

How do you know your shadow inventory isn't located in those same areas and not in good parts of the Bay Area?

Umm because there are websites that actually track the shadow inventory (quite accurately I might add), and they are not only located in Modesto or Stockton.

I'm not trying to obfuscate anything, but fine, let's continue down this road. Show me the cash flow positive SFHs in Danville.

So the only thing you have for me is a dinky condo in Walnut Creek?

What if I'm not in college, and want a yard? Find me something in all the cities I listed.

Call it Crazy says

shadow inventory is causing the "nice" houses to be bid up. The shadow houses have their mold problems, walls and doors kicked in by former owners or have been stripped of their internals

Yes. And then enough of these neglected "shadow" houses get run down enough to start making the entire neighborhood look like Sunday morning's walk of shame. Then the "nice" houses lose property value.

Goran_K says

Umm because there are websites that actually track the shadow inventory (quite accurately I might add), and they are not only located in Modesto or Stockton.

So, how do you know if they are tracking it accurately?? What is your basis for that statement?

Because all estimates for shadow inventory include some huge number to account for all the underwater homeowners. I think that's a pretty big stetch.

Philistine says

Yes. And then enough of these neglected "shadow" houses get run down enough to start making the entire neighborhood look like Sunday morning's walk of shame. Then the "nice" houses lose property value.

There are three in my neighborhood with the "Chase owns this property" tag on the garage doors.

Of course, none of them show up on the MLS.

Realtors Are Clowns says

Poor lying realtor. Still misrepresenting the truth about housing to the public. You unskilled creeps haven't learned a thing.

I'm looking forward to evicting you!

Realtors Are Clowns says

rowemoore says

Realtors Are Clowns says

Poor lying realtor. Still misrepresenting the truth about housing to the public. You unskilled creeps haven't learned a thing.

I'm looking forward to evicting you!

This isn't about me my lying realtor... it's all about you and your misrepresentations about housing.

Nice try though.

I'm not a realtor - sorry for the link showing that home sales are robust in Piedmont, CA. Not a lie. Perhaps people are stupid to buy right now, perhaps not. No one knows for sure.

One thing is certain -- you are a bitter person whom I'm assuming got royally screwed during the bubble. Me, I'm the prudent one who didn't buy the lies back then.

Or maybe you're just a clown pushing a giant R.

Realtors Are Clowns says

The truth is;

-Housing Demand is at 15 year lows and falling

-Housing Prices are Falling

Why are you liars telling the public to buy housing when prices are falling?

And this isn't about me you liar so don't make it about me.

If it is not about you, then why the fuck do you care? What, you think the 12 or so people that will read this will be enlightened by your wisdom?

Of course this is about you. You are a bitter clown.

Realtors Are Clowns says

WRONG again Realt-Liar.

Your lies are evident to everyone and we're going to keep exposing them.

Ok, PROVE you are not a bitter clown. And don't dodge the question. Prove it, or go away.

StopLyingRealtor

Realtors Are Clowns says

rowemoore says

Realtors Are Clowns says

WRONG again Realt-Liar.

Your lies are evident to everyone and we're going to keep exposing them.

Ok, PROVE you are not a bitter clown. And don't dodge the question. Prove it, or go away.

Ok, you've already proven you're a lying realtor. You don't have to answer the question. We've already proven it, now quit lying.

StopLyingRealtor says

StopLyingRealtor

Man, Patrick needs to employ a 1-user name-per-IP address limit!

Seriously, as an admitted housing bear, I think that the various folks that register on here under "Realtors are Liars" type names are pretty ridiculous. I assume that it is just one unemployed, bitter individual that likes coming in here to "spice things up" with silliness. It really does detract from the discussions.

LOL

BTW, Realtors are Liars/Clowns/whatever...you are on ignore. The only reason I know that you quoted me is because the little text summary in the forum showed you quoting me. Keep fighting the good fight lol. I assume that you are accusing me of being a realtor, or accusing me of trying to sell people diseased assets or something. NOPE.

bmwman91 says

It really does detract from the discussions.

Agree, I haven't posted to this thread yet today because it looked like there was a Bitch fight going on.

I wanted to post this morning that I had to come here to get accurate real estate news and received these numbers from Redfin today and the bank/whomever controlled low inventory numbers may very well be true for some cities, but to me does not show/include/calculate the whole picture:

County # For Sale YoY YoY Price Change MoM Price Change # Sales YoY # Sales MoM Months of Supply
San Francisco -39% 8% 8% -2% -14% 1.7
Silicon Valley (San Mateo) -48% 2% 3% 8% -10% 1.6
Denver -49% 17% 13% -5% -1% 2.0
Phoenix (Maricopa) -37% 21% 5% -10% -5% 2.1
San Diego -45% -1% 2% 8% 6% 2.2
Orange County -45% -3% 0% 17% 0% 2.4
Los Angeles -39% -4% 2% 3% -5% 2.5
Northern Virginia (Fairfax) -12% 3% 3% 21% 18% 2.6
Seattle (King) -40% -2% 6% 3% 4% 2.6
Sacramento -35% -2% 2% 2% -8% 2.8
Portland (Multnomah) -29% -1% 1% 16% 15% 2.8
Washington DC -17% 16% -1% -30% -28% 4.3
Las Vegas (Clark) -20% -4% 1% 1% -11% 4.8
Baltimore (Balt. County) -21% 3% 11% -7% -8% 5.1
Boston (Suffolk) 24% 17% -4% -3% -8% 6.1
Chicago (Cook) 7% -4% 3% 12% 1% 8.5
New York (Westchester) 3% -1% 0% -6% -8% 15.4
17-County Composite -23% 4% 3% 2% -3% 3.3

Yeah, this discussion got derailed pretty quick...

Goran_K says

How do you know your shadow inventory isn't located in those same areas and not in good parts of the Bay Area?

Umm because there are websites that actually track the shadow inventory (quite accurately I might add), and they are not only located in Modesto or Stockton.

I thought NAR shut down all of them already. Can't have the public get access to that data, that would remove the power of the asymmetry of information. Then what advantage would NAR have? Good cookie recipes?

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Modesto or Stockton.

I thought NAR shut down all of them already. Can't have the public get access to that data, that would remove the power of the asymmetry of information. Then what advantage would NAR have? Good cookie recipes?

For California, Foreclosureradar is one of the best, Gary Shilling uses them.

Shilling actually had interesting comments about the S&P report today, and inventories overall:

"If those foreclosed out of their abodes move to rentals, they're occupying other housing units, so there is no change in overall inventories. But if they double up or move in with their parents—as statistics show they have been doing—even more excess inventory results."

bmwman91 says

Man, Patrick needs to employ a 1-user name-per-IP address limit!

I agree. Wasn't "RealtorsAreLiars" kicked off the forum once already?

Heck I'm a housing bear, but I grow sick of attempts to create "truth" through perpetual repetition.

Found this recent article about the artificial low inventory

http://www.eforeclosuremagazine.com/foreclosure-market/banks-withholding-foreclosure-properties-to-boost-sales

Wells Fargo senior economist and vice president Scott Anderson explained that withholding a number of foreclosure properties for sale from the real estate market is a deliberate effort on the part of lenders to abate the drastic decline in home prices.
Results from a study of the foreclosures market showed that only one third of repo homes are being marketed for sale. Anderson added that if banks will release all foreclosure properties on their portfolios for sale, property values will surely take another steep plunge.

Read more: Banks Withholding Foreclosure Properties to Boost Sales | Foreclosure News http://www.eforeclosuremagazine.com/foreclosure-market/banks-withholding-foreclosure-properties-to-boost-sales#ixzz1uxv0rKRv

Well, it at least confirms what we all knew. I think this will actually hurt the housing recovery rather than help it, so the banks are shooting themselves in the foot with this strategy. But of course, these are the same banks who got us into this situation in the first place.

David9 says

Portland (Multnomah) -29% -1% 1% 16% 15% 2.8

What this looks like here on the ground is we went from last winter being the only bidder on properties that netted 10% cash on cash as rentals, to now I have yet to find any descent deals that don't have 4-5 offers in on it the day its listed and are going for 5-10% over list.

Purely speculation on my part, but with the low interest rates, election coming in Nov, real estate will stay artificially high until after Nov, then the market will cool as more foreclosure inventory compounds the rising interest rates, newbie investors will get a case of cold feet thinking they mis-timed the market, and we'll be back to naming our own price again through the winter.

gbenson says

real estate will stay artificially high until after Nov, then the market will cool as more foreclosure inventory compounds the rising interest rates, newbie investors will get a case of cold feet thinking they mis-timed the market, and we'll be back to naming our own price again through the winter.

Thanks for the heads up :) My 88 year old father mentioned the elections in November..

When will the banks open up the inventory ?
OK, I am new and didn't trace every comment in this thread, but this subject is dear to my heart. I am looking for an income property and I see the banks are sitting on it, there are almost NO LISTINGS in Oakland area, where before there were many. It is an incredible drop off, and I think a lot of the reason is BIG TRACT SALES with private equity firms or other big investors. How long can the banks keep up this BS? With no mark-to-market reality being forced on them, will they wait forever? This is a farce to artficially keep prices high, and I fear most will believe it. I expect to hear all this great news about price recovery in a month or 2.

hillychilly says

How long can the banks keep up this BS?

Years. They can keep it up for years.

What will force them to cut the BS and start putting those homes on the market again will depend on a) the government and b) economic trends.

Essentially what our (US) gov. is trying to do is replicate what the Japanese have done with their economy following the big housing bust over there in the late 80's/early 90's and just drag things out for as long as humanly possible.

We won't really be able to pull that off since we don't have a trade surplus the likes of which they did but they're going to give it their best try since they're all out of ideas on how else to maintain the status quo.....for the rich that is.

Everyone else not rich will slowly be made poorer since someone has to be made to pay for these policies. What we now call the Great Recession may eventually be known as the Great Depression 2.0 in the future.

I hope you're wrong Robert. Prices in California are still so out of wack with incomes you have people on this board thinking 50% down is a normal situation to be able to get into a home. If prices actually rise in desirable California areas, you might just have to buy them 100% cash outright to make them affordable.

I am somewhat disbelieving in the influence of gasoline prices on human behavior. yes, the the worst case scenario dodge ram mercen to pacific coast it is a huge factor.

tons of empty houses in oakland, but less than 5% i suppose.

Whoah. Better say something here. Shadow inventory. Who would do business with people that have a oh, established swindel like the stock market?

Remeber stocks HAVE NO ASSET ATTACHED.

A: Same people that started the "Federal" reserve.

B: Defies gravity in the face of a "blown out" Detroit

C: Defies gravity in the face of no more new building.

D: Blown out residential and CRE market.

Now discounting our friends. Who we could do ok doing business with. Theres more.

E: No inflation - indicators. Cars that cost 7 fold what they used to.

F: The old fixed basket of goods scam CPI. Like oh gas at 4 dollars a gallon now. Tomatos 3 dollars a pound etc.

No one ever stops to think once again these are the same fuckers that are the swindlers (owners) of the Federal Reserve. People in China and other countries sit and wonder how could they swindel us with MBS well look where they come from. They are SECURITIES. This is like oh, draining the guy that has more of any "cash" he might have gotten. Once again its not the paper but the labor. Even people with cash labor. Cash has one very exciting feature you can "run out" of cash. Another feature it has is this. Leaving you very impressed with their "empire" Corporation means to hide a robber barron or some skeevy queens assets so her drones can all look on in admiration. After all a Queens got her drones. Probably a word not used in some places. They all swap and trade and play all kinds of games. So we have one country. That bitch has 58 countries all through an interesting monetary system that was invented where said bitch lives. Guess what.

So supposedly they have "hidden" votes on the Federal Reserve. I guess by the orginal charter some banks are allowed to be secret. Another words what that would say is they don't have to disclose the chain of ownership of any bank on it thats the "real" bottom line. Americas a fucking farce. Anybody that believes the history of this place has shit for brains. Could be we are the armed to the teeth people of invasion for a really clever bitch and her family after all. Yer Goverment may not think so. However once again the borrower is the slave to the lender. So who really knows where the attack orders eminate from. Corporation upon Corporation. Robber barron buffers. Hysterical, historical propaghanda. Usury that always seems to find America no matter what. You want the real culprit in this look no further than your closest ALLIE.

Once again going on supposition that the borrower is the slave to the lender would make your government a slave to somebody after all now wouldn't it. Didn't say person. Of course you all get to bear that weight as individual borrowers of course. But then again what can your field hand of a Government do but listen and do. A borrower of course can be an entity thats where people get confused after all. So that said entity can be enslaved obviously. They can't make any decision off of what the "people" want and never do much to everyones frustration. They have to make all kinds of excuses even legal ones. People in the way etc. Because you don't have your "Government" the lenders do.

Of course well all have one voice and we can stop all of this. Hey just vote. The "Governent" they own in Washington. The borrower is the slave to the lender people. Will be more than happy to give us voice on all of the news outlets they own. The fast talking slick sociopaths that they have on places like CNBC and the like will be MORE than happy to tickle all of our ears with their latest scam to make us all feel better. Rockefeller you make a great lawn jockey or buffer for the people that really own this place. The Euro (duh) maybe We are but a small voice.

BUT WAIT

The people of the earth not just the United States have had enough. The revolts that are going on aren't commonplace things. Though they would have you think otherwise. They can try to thwart these. See these guys don't run the earth. They just think they do. When push comes to shove. They re-act as if you haven't noticed that. Their greatest fear is the everyday guy coming at them ready to do away with them. Swindlers deserve nothing less. Thing is they will never stop swindling as long as people put up with it.

OWS AND FINANCIAL REFORM THIS IS SO FUCKING BORING. DO I LOOK LIKE A FUCKING TOURIST TO YOU? RON PAUL SEZ: DUH I THINK IS SAW ANOTHER SQUIRREL IS THAT YOU ROCKY? ROCKY THE SQUIRREL SEZ: I LANDED ON ROBBER BARRON. THE FACTS WILL ALL BE THE SAME ON ABC, CBS, AND NBC NIGHTLY NEWS OF COURSE WE ARE USED TO THAT. YOU CAN DEBATE IT OF COURSE. DOSEN'T MATTER YOUR STILL FUCKED. WHEN A USUOR GETS HIS HOOKS IN HE AIN'T LEAVING. ESPECIALLY WITH THEIR PILE OF ASSETS AND YOU STILL OWE. YOUR CHECK IS IN THE MAIL. TAKE IT TO THE SUPERMARKET AND SEE HOW FAST IT ALL GOES AWAY. ITS NOT ABOUT PAPER. ITS ABOUT HARD GOODS, ASSETS AND LABOR.

Artimus 7:11 Aren't these the same highly trained Alpha Delta Crapper monkeys that got draft deferments? Or I ALSO have a monkey called Aristotle. He's working for a higher rate of debt of course. Hes is an idiot. He will work for food. He has Professor Organ Grinder of course (Hey do you want a job in the "corporate world" or not?)Don't think they don't pull this shit all over the world. He is an expensive little monkey time and labor, wise. But hes also a debt slave. But hes always a workin' for the future. Easy to spot he loves the word FUTURE. Thats his deal.

Well he's tellin' us this
And he's tellin' us that
Changes it ev'ry day
Says it doesn't matter
Bases are loaded
And Casey's at bat
Playin' it play by play
Time to change the batter

Joe Walsh

Given the supposition that the usuors or debt merchants own every single medium of communication or is controlled by debt to reach everyone at once. Your not smart to believe what they flash up there at any given point. It's a closed game your not in it except as the "marks" they are trying to swindel and keep on the hook. Stay tuned and watch the sociopathic liars, make dizzy, goofy, senseless, idiots out of the "believers".

Purely anecdotal, but I've driven a lot of Oakland and it's weird. I see lots of homes with no curtains that appear to be empty, but no sign. The other day, the mail man was pointing out homes that had been empty for 2.5 years, and in the mid-hills.

I see prices in the hills being reduced (I know they could have been priced high) but when I check the sales data they were already priced much lower than they sold for during the bubble.

If there is such a shortage of supply, wouldn't that drive these prices up? Even irrationally?

There is no doubt prices are going UP rapidly right now in desireable non ghetto, non ex urban areas.

My friend bought a short sale for 430k in january. Now same homes are selling (well a few of them) for 500k and now asking 550k. Its really nuts.

Remember we have a VERY VERY DIFFERENT environment from 2005/06 - we have 3% mortgages, we have (all permanent basicallly)
1. REITS,Hedgies,Small Time investors snapping up everything they can (who wants 1% on a CD? in 2005 it was like 7%)
2. Banks are taking 2-3 years to foreclose (massively reducing supply this is the shadow inventory)
3. Super low mortgage rates 3% range. Also HUD zero down and FHA 3.5% down payment fuels the fire.

You guys who voted for Obama got what you wanted he said before his election "We have to put a floor under house prices" and in fact they have. Enjoy!

CL says

If there is such a shortage of supply, wouldn't that drive these prices up? Even irrationally?

Nice places priced right are moving quickly. The crap or stuff priced too high sits. We are at about 2002 -2003 prices.

Jerry says

rowemoore says

We are at about 2002 -2003 prices.

Only 13 years more to fall.

he says as he quietly buys investment property...

Here's another article from Realty Trac (May 1, 2012) about the fake housing recovery and low inventory:

http://www.realtytrac.com/content/news-and-opinion/bank-owned-property-inventory-withheld-by-lenders--bank-owned-homes-for-sale-7176

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

If the banks' accounting was even half straight, all the big ones would be toast.
Let's get with rational accounting again and take a long, satisfying piss on the face of a dead bank.

Hey now, let's not get too crazy. We all know that America is about power, money, and propaganda. Truth is the enemy.

wthrfrk80 says

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

If the banks' accounting was even half straight, all the big ones would be toast.

Let's get with rational accounting again and take a long, satisfying piss on the face of a dead bank.

Hey now, let's not get too crazy. We all know that America is about power, money, and propaganda. Truth is the enemy.

Remember George?

"Bullshit is the glue that holds America together".