patrick.net

Depends on how many of them can stand paying that monthly nut, how underwater they are, and what their tolerance is for living a lifestyle with little disposable income. Some can do it for years, some can't do it for months.

My bet is that there will be capitulation since people simply can't afford to buy SFHs at the prices many of the underwater owners want, and no wants to live house poor forever.

DanWI says

2) Rental Rates Are falling

No they aren't.. at worst rental rates are holding steady.

BoomAndBustCycle says

No they aren't.. at worst rental rates are holding steady.

Depends on the area. One thing is for sure, it's way cheaper to rent in Cupertino than it is to buy.

Goran_K says

BoomAndBustCycle says

No they aren't.. at worst rental rates are holding steady.

Depends on the area. One thing is for sure, it's way cheaper to rent in Cupertino than it is to buy.

In Cupertino you could rent two houses and have one just for parties. You would still have extra cash on hand verses buying. Yet, they flock. Have you heard about the schools? I heard a rumor they were good. ;)

RentingForHalfTheCost says

In Cupertino you could rent two houses and have one just for parties. You would still have extra cash on hand verses buying. Yet, they flock. Have you heard about the schools? I heard a rumor they were good. ;)

Yes, apparently they are top notch.

Plus, have you heard? If you buy a 3/2 rancher for $934,000 all cash, and rent it out for $2,000, you are cash-flow positive according to some individuals here. Sounds like a great deal.

Goran_K says

She somehow took my comments about "variable circumstances" to mean 100% cash down.

I didn't take "variable circumstances" as 100% cash down. Now you are flat out lying. You never mentioned a requirement of % cash down until after I gave my example of 100% cash down. This is absurd. How many patnetters are just kids posting from their parents' basements???

I have read your post, and judging by the amount of positive feedback to my comments versus your comments in the thread, I think everyone else also believed you were purposefully being dishonest, and obfuscating the point because of your weak position.

Although I'm sure you don't care, people who are purposefully being dishonest to hide their weak position in an argument know exactly what they are doing.

Goran_K says

That's how everyone else in the thread saw it as well, bear vs bull alike.

Except... tiny tina of course.

I'm not sure why you are still so pissy about this. Once you finally clarified, I agreed that I doubt there are any positive cash flow houses in prime areas with 20% down. It's not my fault you weren't clear.

I'm not pissy at all, and have no reason to be. I'm simply recanting what happened in the thread, and people are agreeing with me. Remember, I'm not the one being dishonest.

Goran_K says

I'm not pissy at all, and have no reason to be. I'm simply recanting what happened in the thread, and people are agreeing with me. Remember, I'm not the one being dishonest.

Ok, if you think so.

tiny tina says

Goran_K says

I'm not pissy at all, and have no reason to be. I'm simply recanting what happened in the thread, and people are agreeing with me. Remember, I'm not the one being dishonest.

Ok, if you think so.

[/hug on] tiny tina [/hug off]

RentingForHalfTheCost says

[/hug on] tiny tina [/hug off]

Sometimes you are pretty funny. :)

Buyers are going to lose this standoff. Most of the forced sales already occured now its just a waiting game as prices stop falling and rents keep rising.

toothfairy says

Buyers are going to lose this standoff. Most of the forced sales already occured now its just a waiting game as prices stop falling and rents keep rising.

Will rents keep rising past what incomes can support?

I'm not so sure.

Goran_K says

Will rents keep rising past what incomes can support?

I'm not so sure.

BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

Goran_K says

ill rents keep rising past what incomes can support?

I'm not so sure.

Since there aren't many unions or NARs of the renting world willingly to stand up for renters rights... Renters are under pressure to be squeezed of all disposable income more-so than home loaners on fixed incomes with MI deductions and powerful lobbyists in Washington.

I'm surprised Patrick hasn't though of forming a RENTERS union.

bmwman91 says

BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

What happens as the N amount of people being priced out forever increases geometrically? Will we live in a world with beautiful, empty cul de sacs, with well manicured lawns maintained by the banks, with prices continuing to rise for homes with no residents? Is there a true value for a product no one can afford?

It's frightening, reminds me of the empty tract homes from The Walking Dead.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Since there aren't many unions or NARs of the renting world willingly to stand up for renters rights... Renters are under pressure to be squeezed of all disposable income more-so than home loaners on fixed incomes with MI deductions and powerful lobbyists in Washington.

Yeah, that might be true, if you could get ALL rental owners to collude, everywhere.

Do you think that is possible?

toothfairy says

Buyers are going to lose this standoff. Most of the forced sales already occured now its just a waiting game as prices stop falling and rents keep rising.

it's hard to say eventually people will have to double up. 2500 for a 2br and you and your roommate each pay 1250

toothfairy says

toothfairy says

Buyers are going to lose this standoff. Most of the forced sales already occured now its just a waiting game as prices stop falling and rents keep rising.

it's hard to say eventually people will have to double up. 2500 for a 2br and you and your roommate each pay 1250

Really? Wow, I'll be waiting...

I think the housing standoff is really between the bank... and the bank.

The banks are holding back inventory to create a false bottom. Yet, they won't lend out money at these ridiculous prices because they don't want to get bitten like in 2008 - 2009.

So which one will win; the bank's desire not to further depress the value of their already toxic assets, or the bank's desire to conduct business as usual and make loans?

Can't have both.

Goran_K says

What happens as the N amount of people being priced out forever increases geometrically? Will we live in a world with beautiful, empty cul de sacs, with well manicured lawns maintained by the banks, with prices continuing to rise for homes with no residents? Is there a true value for a product no one can afford?

We will import people with plenty of money from China. :)

Doesn't China have its own economic growth problems at the moment?

Goran_K says

Doesn't China have its own economic growth problems at the moment?

You missed the sarcasm there - quite often bulls put up the Chinese buying up all these properties in BA theory. :)

bubblesitter says

You missed the sarcasm there - quite often bulls put up the Chinese buying up all these properties in BA theory. :)

China really? I can see a super small effect of chinese money. Not nearly enough to absorb 4 years worth of supply at inflated prices. Especially with China's growth slowing to its lowest percentages in a decade.

Hollywood just appraised my house at 114K and I couldn't be happier, as I don't plan on selling the place. That is as long as they don't find a way to raise my taxes in spite of the property value haircut.

Goran_K says

China really? I can see a super small effect of chinese money.

I will leave up to supporter of Chinese money take it from here.

Goran_K says

iny tina posted a link of a 3/2 rancher in Cupertino listed for $934,000, and said if you rent it out for $2,000, it's cash flow positive.

Just the land tax on this property would be $1200/mo + home insurance $200 + maintenance $200/mo + landscaping $100, and we are already talking $1700. So that leaves you only $300, provided you had $1M to put down on the house. What a joke. If Bay Area buyers are single cell amoebas, Cupertino buyers must be the excrement of an amoeba.

dunnross says

Just the land tax on this property would be $1200/mo + home insurance $200 + maintenance $200/mo + landscaping $100, and we are already talking $1700. So that leaves you only $300

According to tiny tina, it's all cash-flow baby. :)

Goran_K says

I think the housing standoff is really between the bank... and the bank.
The banks are holding back inventory to create a false bottom. Yet, they won't lend out money at these ridiculous prices because they don't want to get bitten like in 2008 - 2009.
So which one will win; the bank's desire not to further depress the value of their already toxic assets, or the bank's desire to conduct business as usual and make loans?
Can't have both.

That’s right… Banks can again loose credit restriction and play PING-PONG GAME.

Only because our government is giving them money to stay solvent.

Any other private enterprise would have folded up years ago.