patrick.net

Typical right wing nonsense. I can say whatever I want and all the small people must bow to me in hushed reverance. But hey, if the opposition dares to question me-my first amendment rights are being violated and this is now Soviet Russia. What a bunch of cry babies.

The reported percentage was correct.

After cherry picking the data, ignoring large obvious trends, and isolating only the preferred information.

Just throw out the parts you don't like!

lostand confused says

Typical right wing nonsense. I can say whatever I want and all the small people must bow to me in hushed reverance. But hey, if the opposition dares to question me-my first amendment rights are being violated and this is now Soviet Russia. What a bunch of cry babies.

No doubt, you're right about the hypocritical tone. +1. I will say one thing about the unemployment numbers though. I think that jobs report is "fishy" too.

My wages have been frozen for the last 3 years. They discontinued our pension plan, so all we have is our 401k. The educational reimbursement is gone, so are the bonuses, and my health insurance costs more. The company I work for is not making any money and I think we'll have a round of layoffs soon. The entire industry I'm a part of has been stagnating since 2008'ish. I don't know anyone who IS doing well in these times except those in health care.

With all these headwinds I face, which I think is indicative of the national situation, I just don't see how any meaningful employment is being created.

I live in the rust belt so my reality may differ from yours.

Yup says

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx

Gallup shows 7.3%.....

I would like to know what industries are doing well except health care and oil & gas? There's a disconnect between my reality and these numbers.

Yup says

I don't know, do some research.

OK. According to this article, here are 5 of the 10 fastest growing industries in the U.S.

1) Online eyeglass sales
2) Hot sauce production
3) Social network game development
4) Self tanning product manufacturing
5) Pilates and yoga studios

Yipee!! Looks like were having a hot sauce and Pilates recovery! Woooo Hoooo!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/19/ten-fastest-growing-industries_n_1431739.html#s877164&title=10_Online_Eyeglasses

Scagnetti says

No doubt, you're right about the hypocritical tone. +1. I will say one thing about the unemployment numbers though. I think that jobs report is "fishy" too.
My wages have been frozen for the last 3 years. They discontinued our pension plan, so all we have is our 401k. The educational reimbursement is gone, so are the bonuses, and my health insurance costs more. The company I work for is not making any money and I think we'll have a round of layoffs soon. The entire industry I'm a part of has been stagnating since 2008'ish. I don't know anyone who IS doing well in these times except those in health care.
With all these headwinds I face, which I think is indicative of the national situation, I just don't see how any meaningful employment is being created.
I live in the rust belt so my reality may differ from yours.

Started with the "great/mythical" Reagan and then continued with Clinton as he signed NAFTA and then continues on with either party as free trade where American workers have to compete with third world wages continues.

In China, for most manufacturing jobs, the workers work 7 days a week, live in dorms and go visit their families a few times a year at most. That is what we are competing against.

I work in IT and one of the few industries doing better. Why? because of Obama. he increased the H1B fees to close to 4000+ bucks- a 400% increase. Then he has made it increasingly difficult to get one-with record amount of rejection rates. Also if you are on H1B here, then you have to show proof of continous employment , else you will be asked to leave.

This has resulted in a lot more jobs for Americans and greencard holders and has put a floor on rates being offered. Now the strange thing, he won't publicze his actions-lest he be called a pinkie commie.

If he did the same for manufacturing, a ton of jobs can come back-the cost of doing business is now narrowing and only 20-30% gap between US and China. Import tarriffs can easily swing that to our favour. Free trade nonsense and republican and dem adherence to it is what makes it impossible.

Among the two-the dems are taking action against free trade in favor of Americans , at least in the field of my work-so they have my vote-because I know many companies including Microsoft are lobbying hard to open the h1B floodgates again and bring in a ton of of folks on the visa. The repubs will do it-because they openly embrace it. Obama has resisted so far and the employment opportunities are much better.

Not at all happy with dems and women issues. But the repubs are only trying to drag women into the stone ages and not addressing the issues I think are important to men-inequalitites in family court and now the silly leadbetter law.

But I think ultimately, Americans should say enough with the free trade dogma and run out any clown who champions it and then we can get better. Trade or any buisness is for profit and when the vast majority of America is incurring massive losses due to our trade policy-time to stop and change.

For now Obama seems to be the "sane" one -at least in my field. if the repubs remove the caps, we can have hundreds of thousands of H1B every new year competing and bringing down wages to a point where a waiter in a high end restaurant can make more. It is one thing when our country has a suplus of jobs-but totally another when it has a surplus of people and a dearth of jobs.

I think if organized labor starts protesting these issues-instead of what they currently do-they will have a lot more support. Germany is a net exporter and has very strong unions. Union members even have a seat in the board of directors-yet they seem to be successful in exports.

@lostand confused,

Great post. Totally agree.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/EAHM9rXjdUo

If this were still Bush's administration making the gross outlandish claim that there is ONLY 7.8% every news segment and blog article would be about what a liar Bush is. SNL and the Comedy writers would be working over time on the Pinocchio angle.

Anyone that thinks the numbers that were released on Jobs stats were accurate really isn't interested in the truth.

Call it Crazy says

maybe we can count them.... they're home sitting on their couches watching Fox News...

I'm never quite sure what to make of claims about creating or destroying jobs when it comes to GOP.

They seem to want to do their level best to eliminate workforce costs when they are in management. The mantra is EFFICIENCY and do more with less and here we fired the person in the next cube do their job too. And let's replace everyone with robots wherever we can. Then when switching to politics suddenly they claim to be all about creating jobs out of thin air. I'm not sure why they fail to see where that relentless drive to corporatize and streamline is going to end. I'm no Luddite, but the natural consequence seems to be eventually very few people working to produce the goods of daily life. What do the rest of the people do? Where do they get the money to keep the party going? The endgame for naked capitalism is not something we talk about in polite company I suppose, or we wave our hands over it and declare it will be paradise because.... FREEDOM!

I don't like the way unemployment statistics are calculated or reported either. However, it wasn't a CRISIS of numerical confidence during previous administrations. It seems hilarious to me that it suddenly is now. The way it's reported may not agree with what some consider reality, but it didn't change just for Obama's purposes. The claims that the reports are a PACK OF OBAMA LIES, well Jack Welch & Co. are peddling partisan horseshit of the highest grade.

It may be a pack of lies, but if so every administration and every last Congressmen and staffer, and the execs on the other side of that revolving door in the FIRE & "real economy" that sat by while BLS methods were changed and then reported without comment for decades bears responsibility for that. Did you see CNBC or Fox News in a tizzy about BLS reports 10 years ago? No, neither did I. The numbers were dryly reported as usual when they came out and that was that.

Vicente says

I'm no Luddite, but the natural consequence seems to be eventually very few people working to produce the goods of daily life. What do the rest of the people do? Where do they get the money to keep the party going? The endgame for naked capitalism is not something we talk about in polite company I suppose, or we wave our hands over it and declare it will be paradise because.... FREEDOM!

I wonder this same thing, frequently. The natural progression would be just that: robots doing all the jobs. Capitalism will eat itself.

Call it Crazy says

I've got a suggestion for you... why don't you go up and down your street and survey all the residents and ask them:

You are missing my point. Deliberately?

How would the underemployed, or people who fell off welfare rolls, be any different now than 5 years ago, or 10, or 15?

We've known BLS numbers as quoted by the financial media (they love to talk about U-3 never U-6) do not represent fairly. So why is it a "problem" only NOW for Jack Welch?

Everyone on my street is either employed, retired, or a stay at home spouse. But thanks for your concern.

Vicente says

Everyone on my street is either employed, retired, or a stay at home spouse.

Then perhaps it's Environment, that dictates perception.

I don't know many people that if I want to hang out at the pub on a Friday night, I wouldn't have to pick up the tab. Or we could just hang out in their living room and watch them zap each other with a tazer for kicks.

In all reality, I only have one single friend that if I called up any given time to go hang out, or catch a concert, that I wouldn't have to pick up the tab.
Now I'm not saying all of my friends aren't working, but before late 2007 ALL of my friends were capable of paying their own way, and we went often.

It hasn't improved much.

We are on a sinking ship. If a coal burning sump pump would save our sinking ship, the libs would rather make everyone (except them) drown, while conservos would fire up the coal pump and save the ship, libs and all.
Welfare (in all it's shapes and sizes) is cargo on our ship that is only tollerable when the seas are calm and there is lots of extra space in the hold. When a ship is sinking, crap cargo is tossed first.
A Military is required cargo.
Affirmitive Action, sodomite demands, and Big Bird is like welfare, it is no big deal until it hurts the ship's ability to stay afloat.
All conservos would be happy as clams on a ship that only had concervos, and the ship would be sea worthy.
A lib controlled ship would never float, and that is why they must sneak aboard conservo ships. But, since they are so bitter with reality they start drilling holes in the bottom.

metaphors are not my thing. Liberalism is a mental disorder that seems to be tied to drug abuse and excessive porn.

Call it Crazy says

many people reading this forum could give similar reports based on their small circle of influence and peole they know that doesn't "jive" with the official numbers...

Either we accept this because the BLS statistic is an average, or because we think the BLS statistic just plain misrepresents.

CaptainShuddup says

before late 2007 ALL of my friends were capable of paying their own way, and we went often

Purely anecdotal, but because your experience rhymes with my own, I'll chime in to say that while, yes, I am also having to pick up the tab a lot more than in the past, I think my friends 5 years ago also had a much more casual attitude about bankrolling Gin and Strippers with credit cards. None of us, however, has a had a pay increase--inflation adjusted--and just about everything else has gotten slightly more expensive.

Oysters used to be $2/piece. Now they are $4. A drink used to be $9, now it's $12.

As stated earlier, there is no number that reports "Good Jobs" or Underemployment. Even at 7.8, a larger proportion of newly created jobs, I'd wager, either pay less than equivalent jobs 10 years ago, or are more crappy service jobs.

The headline 7.8% number is based on the household survey, not the establishment survey. The household survey asks people if they have a job. It doesn't do anything to verify that they are gainfully employed.

This is like asking someone to state how much they make per month to qualify for a home loan without bothering to ask for the last 2 months of pay stubs. No doc loans significantly contributed, if not solely caused, the prior housing bubble. Why would we be less suspicious about a telephone survey right before a major election?

The household survey typically correlates closely with the establishment survey, so the unverified claims of employment of surveyee's are deemed credible. When we have such a large disparity between the 800k jobs in the household survey, and the 114k jobs in the establishment survey, how can the household unemployment number of 7.8% be given any credence? Short answer: it can't.

Lets look at how sensitive the household survey is to manipulation. The household survey contacts roughly 50-60k households. Using the higher number of 60k, if the unemployment rate is 8.1%, then there are .081*60k = 4860 unemployed. To drop the rate by .3% (8.1-7.8%) we need to have .003*60k = 180 households either find jobs that month or become so discouraged that they stop looking for work.

Since the household survey shows net job creation of 800k jobs, we can just assume that those 180 household reported employment. But, there is no proof that they actually became employed. And, the burden of proof is not on those disputing the claim it is on those making it. If the household numbers are to be believed, then the BLS needs to back these numbers up with employment verification.

Also, there is the question of conflict of interest. Those who are unemployed may rationally conclude that a Democratic administration is more likely to continue unemployment benefits... With so few examples of moral leadership on display in the current election cycle, is it so hard to imagine that 180 families would lie to keep bread on their tables?

One last point. How do we show a net 600k gain in government employment over one month? Is there a sudden need to hire 600k more government workers in September 2012? What are they doing and where did we get the money to pay them? If this happens every September with schools going back in session, then there should be a seasonal adjustment.

Call it Crazy says

Which is why I said go sit in front of your local grocery store for an hour and do your own survey. Then come back here and tell us if your results equal 7.8%.

You're so busy on your own point that your missing my point: the unemployment number is an average. Go stand outside a grocery store in Birmingham or D.C. and you will see much less than 7.8 unemployment.

For that matter, most people at the grocery store at 11 a.m. on a Tuesday are housewives or unemployed college students.