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Experts. Who needs them?


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2012 Oct 23, 9:11am   1,116 views  1 comment

by Andy S   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

http://www.andyshand.com/

I once spent 368 days in hospital. My first recollection that something was amiss was waking up after a period of unconsciousness to a plate of German finger food, a catheter, and more tubes than the London underground. My extended hospital stay was caused by falling off the tailgate of an Army truck onto my head. After a period of two months in a German Krankenhaus where I was mostly sedated, I was transferred to the British Military Hospital in Hannover, where I spent a further four months receiving treatment and diagnostic evaluation before being flown to the UK whereupon...

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1   Ceffer   2012 Oct 23, 10:09am  

Experts often misdirect simply because preserving their image as a smart prognosticator is their most important asset.

Therefore, they have a tendency to "over-predict" based on complex scenarios that are designed to illustrate their knowledge in a nominally impressive way.

Most often, the simplest and most direct explanation is the best, or no explanation i.e. " I don't know and can't tell", which are the explanations you would seldom get from the expert.

Experts "always know" and "always predict", sort of like the weather man.

They also profess that they predicted what is already in the past.

They spend half the time saying "I told you so" when they didn't, and the other half telling you "This is going to happen" with great certainty and authority when it doesn't.

If something does actually happen, it is likely an accident or some inevitability that has nothing to do with their "expertise". They will then tailor the details to make it look like they knew it all along.

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