patrick.net

egads101 says

I'm sure you've just managed to irritate someone else!

I got this one right Bob.

egads101 says

Prices one year from today will be higher in Phoenix, higher in almost every part of California, and higher US wide.

Yes, it's engineered to suck in the last fools before the letdown.

There is some reason to think that prices will stabilize and perhaps rise. For instance, the FHA is now allowing people who lost their homes to foreclosures and short sales to refinance in as little as 12 months. There is pent-up demand from the past five or six years. If we advance legalized immigration we can add another 3 million buyers over the next few years. Etc.

http://www.ourbroker.com/news/immmigration-reform-add-500-billion-in-new-mortgages-061013/

OurBroker says

There is some reason to think that prices will stabilize and perhaps rise. For instance, the FHA is now allowing people who lost their homes to foreclosures and short sales to refinance in as little as 12 months. There is pent-up demand from the past five or six years. If we advance legalized immigration we can add another 3 million buyers over the next few years. Etc.

http://www.ourbroker.com/news/immmigration-reform-add-500-billion-in-new-mortgages-061013/

Sounds like bubble behavior to me.

Moderate Infidel says

Sounds like bubble behavior to me.

I was going to quote his whole comment, but saw you did.

What the Heck? Immigration reform would bring in Billions of dollars to our economy, there is no question, but it isn't going to happen.

Also those new mortgages for people who have been foreclosed will find some very wary buyers. These people aren't going to just sign up for an over priced house this time around no matter how attractive the loan is. Once burned twice shy.

These are two very improbable reasons why Real Estate prices might rise.

Also, how is pent up demand measured?

Analyzer says

Also, how is pent up demand measured?

By magical thinking.

Hey Roberto Ribas, hows the day job at Scottsdale Community College? can you cover your losses next year with that 2.8 rating?

egads101 says

People who don't want to end up like you, sued by the IRS, 2 mortgages, underwater on their homes, selling for losses on investments.

Now Bob, we just covered this, but we'll do it again, it never gets old.

As you well know I was sick for some time before being diagnosed with colon cancer, something I'm sure you are familiar with.

So our business model changed dramatically, and rather than continue with losing investments in Real Estate we have liquidated to pay for my initial treatments.

Bob, you ran around the internet following ever blog post, and comment I have ever made, and concocted this story in your head about my ability to make money.

The fact is Bob, I do make money, every day, with an unlimited growth potential, while you, as you claim, have an extremely limited income from stagnant rents in a housing market that is at least questionable.

You have no ability to analyze Real Estate beyond what your read on Trulia, or Zillow, or redfin.

I, on the other hand have looked at the broader market and determined a better course of action than buying more property. I have enough.

So, Bob, when people ask me what course of action they should take, it depends on the deal, rather than some fanciful dream of what my investments are doing.

Property is losing value Bob, job creation is a bigger fish to fry.

egads101 says

and what direction future housing prices are going to go is to great importance to the non morons out there; People who don't want to end up like you, sued by the IRS, 2 mortgages, underwater on their homes, selling for losses on investments.

look at this asshole he's still goin

he's over here cyber stalking people but he complains when people expose that Roberto A Ribas is an unpopular math teacher at Scottsdale Community College or that he lives with 3 room mates to help him pay his mortgage and is overloaded with debt on his phoenix investments

egads101 says

property is losing value.

LOSH

Bob, welcome to reality.

This lull in the market you are so fond of is a reset. Assets, and commodities have risen in price. Investor dollars are building apartments. Executive stay rents are at an all time high.

Stocks are exploding Bob, with no upper limit. Housing, not so much, property, not so much. Commercial property may do well depending on the business, which we all know is technology.

The bottom line Bob, is job creation is a better investment than housing.

The very fact that people can be "priced out forever", as some of you are saying, is reason enough to know something is very wrong with the market. How long the shenanigan will last, nobody knows.

Many of you seem to be quite satisfied that those who were waiting for prices to decrease have now lost and are priced out forever. But what about students finishing college and just starting jobs. They are also priced out forever, according to you. If housing is no longer affordable for the common man, something is wrong. This is just common sense.

Leaving the playground now. Thanks for the fascinating commentary I enjoy as I lurk on the outskirts. :)

Call it Crazy says

Moderate Infidel says

Analyzer says

Also, how is pent up demand measured?

By magical thinking.

Do you believe in unicorns???

I used to until a Leprechaun told me they weren't real.

veruca says

Leaving the playground now. Thanks for the fascinating commentary I enjoy as
I lurk on the outskirts. :)

Welcome Veruca! No, not one of the hip kids on the playground, but I also enjoy the commentary and if one evokes a thought I enjoy writing it, as I believe you did.

OurBroker says

nstance, the FHA is now allowing people who lost their homes to foreclosures and short sales to refinance in as little as 12 months. There is pent-up demand from the past five or six years. If we advance legalized immigration we can add another 3 million buyers over the next few years. Etc.

I wouldnt expect the bulk of illegal aliens, many of whom work at menial jobs to be able to afford homes- especially with the higher prices and interest rates.

Trying to get former foreclosed buyers in 12 months to qualify again is a dumb idea.Its desperate tricks like that to keep the mortgages flowing and the prices rising that destroy a legitimate housing market

David Losh says

a point where only the wealthy can afford to own a home

Hold on hold on hold on. I sympathize with this idea in cities like SF/NYC/LA, but we have now bundled so much of our California salaries into a fat savings account that we are now looking to just move back to the southeast where we can buy any house cash with our current DP and get out of the rat race.

Wealthy Chinese:SanFran::middle income Californians:non-coastal US

David Losh says

It may be that we are at a point where only the wealthy can afford to own a
home.

Is that really that bad? Consider that for most people that DO own a home, that's where a lot of their savings went to, and a good portion of their future income. Could that be why most boomers have little to no retirement money set aside, and all the liquid and financial assets ownership are concentrated in a very small group that owns 80-90% of them?

>>>Trying to get former foreclosed buyers in 12 months to qualify again is a dumb idea. Its desperate tricks like that to keep the mortgages flowing and the prices rising that destroy a legitimate housing market.

I'm not saying your wrong, just that this is happening.

Interestingly I was just sent a Zillow report for a group of houses for sale in Orange County, and the majority of them had price reductions. What gives?

OurBroker says

>>>Trying to get former foreclosed buyers in 12 months to qualify again is a dumb idea. Its desperate tricks like that to keep the mortgages flowing and the prices rising that destroy a legitimate housing market.

I'm not saying your wrong, just that this is happening.

Correct-it is a plan that they are pushing. Are there any preliminary #'s that show how many are/can take advantage

I wouldn't pin a housing recovery on the worst credit risks in the country or on illegal aliens

upisdown says

David Losh says

It may be that we are at a point where only the wealthy can afford to own a

home.

Is that really that bad? Consider that for most people that DO own a home, that's where a lot of their savings went to, and a good portion of their future income. Could that be why most boomers have little to no retirement money set aside, and all the liquid and financial assets ownership are concentrated in a very small group that owns 80-90% of them?

You make a good point-plenty of people own homes- but the pipe line of new homeowners is almost non existent -the age group 18-28 is in bad shape to buy-they are underemployed as a group and have lots of debt already from college
http://smaulgld.com/student-loans-and-unemployment-are-holding-back-the-economy-and-real-estate-market/

This housing market may be running out of steam..................

Thanks to all that subscribed to smaulgld.com today

I am still waiting to hear what will be the main drivers to support a continued rise in home prices? Investors? Job creation? Interest rates? or the hope of pent up demand?

Anecdotal evidence but I am looking in counties surrounding NYC and am seeing tons of price drops. Nearly every house I look at has been reduced at least two times in the last 6 months.

The price drops go back to spring...

egads101 says

You do realize you could have asked the same smug question 2 years ago, and mocked all replies, only to be as wrong as humanly possible?

Back then I had the answer investors and low rates.

I always get a kick out of the term 'shadow inventory'. Who really knows where the so called shadow inventory stands at this point, should we ask the shadow banks or the shadow Fed? It's a shadow alright!

According toZero hedge-building materials and garden supply dealers saw sales down 0.9%

LAST HOPE- Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.

Maybe it will show some wishful thinking is left in the minds of potential homebuyers

smaulgld says

LAST HOPE- Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.

Maybe it will show some wishful thinking is left in the minds of potential homebuyers

Don't count on that either- big miss on the index.
Recovery?

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

LAST HOPE- Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.

Maybe it will show some wishful thinking is left in the minds of potential homebuyers

What, like potential home buyers in Detroit???

Or all those immigrants becoming legal and buying homes!

Smaulgld in the Boston Globe! http://patrick.net/?p=1229346

>>>What, like potential home buyers in Detroit???

Times change. Pittsburgh has come back and it wasn't too long ago that New York City was bankrupt.

I was in Flint about two months ago and was greatly surprised by the rebuilding. It's not ever going to be the manufacturing hub that it once was, but new businesses are opening. Unemployment remains high, but not as high as 2009.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT26224203?data_tool=XGtable

OurBroker says

>>>What, like potential home buyers in Detroit???

Times change. Pittsburgh has come back and it wasn't too long ago that New York City was bankrupt.

I was in Flint about two months ago and was greatly surprised by the rebuilding. It's not ever going to be the manufacturing hub that it once was, but new businesses are opening. Unemployment remains high, but not as high as 2009.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT26224203?data_tool=XGtable

Sure, one day Detroit will return- but not in time to save this housing "recovery"

Tim Aurora says

Sorry to disappoint Smaulglg but the recocvery is well on its way

fewer Foreclosures don't mean more people will buy homes just like fewer initial jobless claims doesn't mean anyone got a job
At some point the bleeding stops, but recovery doesn't necessarily follow
http://smaulgld.com/initial-jobless-claims/

Do you think Bank of America understands what is happening?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-american-economy-doesnt-accelerate-132041458.html

smaulgld says

Do you think Bank of America understands what is happening?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-american-economy-doesnt-accelerate-132041458.html

Can we call it a shadow recovery? Shadows are only illusions anyway right.

Analyzer says

Can we call it a shadow recovery? Shadows are only illusions anyway right.

Bernanke's housing recovery is a shadow of Greenspan's housing boom- that is for sure and a lot more expensive

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

....or was 58 states, as Obama claimed????

UM that would be 57 states

Missed it by one....

Don't worry - Obama Nailed it-that is why he is President

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

....or was 58 states, as Obama claimed????

UM that would be 57 states

Missed it by one....

Don't worry - Obama Nailed it-that is why he is President

Crap, you mean if I guess 57, I could have been president too??

Yeah that and a subscription to smaulgld.com will make you the leader of the free world!