patrick.net

Incidentally, while I do somewhat malign some posters here for my SIL's predicament - the one person I really do blame more than others is Patrick. As the one having a blog, I really hold him to a higher standard. In particular, the one area where Patrick really is deserving of scorn is his continued insistence that at the bottom even in the desirable areas the cost to rent "must" equal the cost to buy.

On more than one occasion a poster would ask if a particular place was OK to buy. Patrick would respond that the guy should "wait" because comparing price versus rent revealed the place was "nowhere near the bottom". Invariably, his analysis always had an air of "certainty" when the reality is, Patrick had no real clue whether rental parity was ever reality in certain desirable areas.

Well, long story short, my SIL took this in particular to heart. In 2009, since renting in her desired area was 40% cheaper than buying, she naturally assumed that prices would drop 40% if she too "waited" as Patrick had advised. Imagine her horror as prices not only didn't drop, but rose 20% (now past the 2006 peak), but her rent was raised over 20% in the last 4 years as well.

As you can imagine, her continued insistence to rely on Patrick's rules for the bottom caused numerous shouting matches with extended family members - lots of traded accusations of who was delusional... Its only in the last year (as Patrick's disposition changed from "wait" to "rent forever" that she woke up and realized how badly she was being hurt by listening to this advice. At the end of the day, she, like so many here was going to buy eventually...all she wanted was assurances that prices were not going to suffer a massive second leg down (such that renting costs would come in line with buying costs).

@Patrick - Ive never mentioned any this before, but I sincerely hope you see this. In all fairness, you (mostly 2005-2009) certainly have done a tremendous amount of good - you saved many people from devastating financial mistakes - no question about that.

That said, as you and I have discussed, your continued insistence (circa 2009-2012) on telling people to "wait" until prices = rents (especially since you had little idea if it was historically correct or not) you have harmed people in ways you can hardly imagine.

Now Bob, have you been here all day, again today?

You, and I both know you are full of crap, and have misrepresented yourself either here or on the cancer blog you've been trolling since 2011.

So you are aware of my finances, as I must be aware of yours. Cancer costs a bunch of dough, especially when you start out self insured.

This blog is a little more open than the cancer blog so I'll take you on here, again.

Which persona is the real you Bob, the one here, or the one where you dispense medical advice?

Let's see, medical expert, Real Estate expert, Community College Professor, or Engineer, it must be tough keeping it all straight.

egads101 says

you and 100's of other nitwits have confidently predicted a housing price crash for the last five years on here. the pack of you couldn't have been more wrong if you tried.

If you observe closely there are clear behavioral patterns that emerge on these threads. If someone does not have a credible answer or do not like the real answer they often resort to name calling and chest thumping. I am positive I already know how long I will be waiting for any evidence to be provided that I predicted a housing price crash.

It is also interesting that someone would spend/waste so much time posting to a board full of nitwits. If you can't beat em, join em....................

smaulgld says

Tomorrow we will get initial jobless claim data

If we didn't lose too many we'll hear everything is fine-even though we know that people not losing their jobs does not equate to hiring

The july "gains" were nicely revised downwards from about 160000 to a laughable 104000.

Facebooksux says

smaulgld says

Tomorrow we will get initial jobless claim data

If we didn't lose too many we'll hear everything is fine-even though we know that people not losing their jobs does not equate to hiring

The july "gains" were nicely revised downwards from about 160000 to a laughable 104000.

Don't we all wish we could have high paying government jobs that require no accountability?

egads101 says

Analyzer says

egads101 says

Analyzer says

Most people get their information from the mainstream media. I am not following where it is being frequently reported in the media as to the coming crash in real estate.

Is that a joke? or is that really how you think?

Do you have something that shows otherwise?

works for me.

You claimed there was a coming real estate crash that for some reason, the media is not reporting...

then, you claimed I need to provide evidence it isn't coming. hello mcfly how about ALL housing data, none of which shows any crash coming?

Whoa man, I honestly cannot follow your logic. Are you practicing for running for public office in the near future?

And inventory is up in your hometown Concord as well:

And it's up in Roberto's home town as well:

egads101 says

Facebooksux says

The july "gains" were nicely revised downwards from about 160000 to a laughable 104000.

the thing is, with the sequester, gains of any size are a good sign for the future.

Or did you like it better five years ago, when we were losing 600,000 jobs a month?

Stop trolling Roberta.

smaulgld says

I was right- I wasn't talking about LA specifically. BUT since you mention it:

When I said inventory would rise in June -LA had 1,439 listings and by August it had 1,554

Price reductions went from 450 in June to 607 in August

Los Angeles Real Estate Trends

http://www.movoto.com/statistics/ca/los-angeles.htm

AND since August:

"Los Angeles's home resale inventories increased, with a 6 percent increase since August 2013."

http://www.movoto.com/statistics/ca/los-angeles.htm

"The median listing price in Los Angeles went down from August to September. There were a total of 169 price increases and 607 price decreases."

Sounds exactly like the reversal I predicted here: http://smaulgld.com/the-coming-supplydemand-real-estate-inventory-reversal/

And in Phoenix we see the same
Inventory up, price reductions up
There were a total of 299 price increases and 1599 price decreases.
http://www.movoto.com/statistics/AZ/phoenix.htm

smaulgld says

Sounds exactly like the reversal I predicted here: http://smaulgld.com/the-coming-supplydemand-real-estate-inventory-reversal/

And in Phoenix we see the same

Inventory up, price reductions up

http://www.movoto.com/statistics/AZ/phoenix.htm

Or try Las Vegas
inventory up, price reductions up
http://www.movoto.com/statistics/nv/las-vegas.htm

Hi --

National housing prices are an interesting measure -- but not especially relevant to the value of your house or mine.

The reason is that real estate is a localized commodity. The same house located somewhere else will have a different value.

The best measure of relevant home values is the pricing in your neighborhood.

OurBroker says

The reason is that real estate is a localized commodity. The same house located somewhere else will have a different value.

The best measure of relevant home values is the pricing in your neighborhood.

This is 100% true. The one constant for every neighborhood however is the mortgage interest rate.
Employment, wages, neighborhood amenities, housing quality, inventory, foreclosure rates etc are different from town to town.

But higher rate impacts just about all neighborhoods
And we did see from 2003-2006 how we had a national housing boom/bubble due to low rates and a national crash.

We also had earlier this year a national housing bubblet driven by low rates

Agreed. Home prices are local and mortgage rates are largely national, with little variation among regions.

egads101 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

And you are predicting prices will hold steady or rise from here? Just getting you on the record, or are you only here for amusement.

Prices one year from today will be higher in Phoenix, higher in almost every part of California, and higher US wide.

Not as much higher as last year's 24% in Phoenix, and 12% countrywide, but higher nonetheless.

What is driving them higher?

egads101 says

I'm sure you've just managed to irritate someone else!

I got this one right Bob.

egads101 says

Prices one year from today will be higher in Phoenix, higher in almost every part of California, and higher US wide.

Yes, it's engineered to suck in the last fools before the letdown.

There is some reason to think that prices will stabilize and perhaps rise. For instance, the FHA is now allowing people who lost their homes to foreclosures and short sales to refinance in as little as 12 months. There is pent-up demand from the past five or six years. If we advance legalized immigration we can add another 3 million buyers over the next few years. Etc.

http://www.ourbroker.com/news/immmigration-reform-add-500-billion-in-new-mortgages-061013/

OurBroker says

There is some reason to think that prices will stabilize and perhaps rise. For instance, the FHA is now allowing people who lost their homes to foreclosures and short sales to refinance in as little as 12 months. There is pent-up demand from the past five or six years. If we advance legalized immigration we can add another 3 million buyers over the next few years. Etc.

http://www.ourbroker.com/news/immmigration-reform-add-500-billion-in-new-mortgages-061013/

Sounds like bubble behavior to me.

Moderate Infidel says

Sounds like bubble behavior to me.

I was going to quote his whole comment, but saw you did.

What the Heck? Immigration reform would bring in Billions of dollars to our economy, there is no question, but it isn't going to happen.

Also those new mortgages for people who have been foreclosed will find some very wary buyers. These people aren't going to just sign up for an over priced house this time around no matter how attractive the loan is. Once burned twice shy.

These are two very improbable reasons why Real Estate prices might rise.

Also, how is pent up demand measured?

Analyzer says

Also, how is pent up demand measured?

By magical thinking.

Hey Roberto Ribas, hows the day job at Scottsdale Community College? can you cover your losses next year with that 2.8 rating?

egads101 says

People who don't want to end up like you, sued by the IRS, 2 mortgages, underwater on their homes, selling for losses on investments.

Now Bob, we just covered this, but we'll do it again, it never gets old.

As you well know I was sick for some time before being diagnosed with colon cancer, something I'm sure you are familiar with.

So our business model changed dramatically, and rather than continue with losing investments in Real Estate we have liquidated to pay for my initial treatments.

Bob, you ran around the internet following ever blog post, and comment I have ever made, and concocted this story in your head about my ability to make money.

The fact is Bob, I do make money, every day, with an unlimited growth potential, while you, as you claim, have an extremely limited income from stagnant rents in a housing market that is at least questionable.

You have no ability to analyze Real Estate beyond what your read on Trulia, or Zillow, or redfin.

I, on the other hand have looked at the broader market and determined a better course of action than buying more property. I have enough.

So, Bob, when people ask me what course of action they should take, it depends on the deal, rather than some fanciful dream of what my investments are doing.

Property is losing value Bob, job creation is a bigger fish to fry.

egads101 says

and what direction future housing prices are going to go is to great importance to the non morons out there; People who don't want to end up like you, sued by the IRS, 2 mortgages, underwater on their homes, selling for losses on investments.

look at this asshole he's still goin

he's over here cyber stalking people but he complains when people expose that Roberto A Ribas is an unpopular math teacher at Scottsdale Community College or that he lives with 3 room mates to help him pay his mortgage and is overloaded with debt on his phoenix investments

egads101 says

property is losing value.

LOSH

Bob, welcome to reality.

This lull in the market you are so fond of is a reset. Assets, and commodities have risen in price. Investor dollars are building apartments. Executive stay rents are at an all time high.

Stocks are exploding Bob, with no upper limit. Housing, not so much, property, not so much. Commercial property may do well depending on the business, which we all know is technology.

The bottom line Bob, is job creation is a better investment than housing.

The very fact that people can be "priced out forever", as some of you are saying, is reason enough to know something is very wrong with the market. How long the shenanigan will last, nobody knows.

Many of you seem to be quite satisfied that those who were waiting for prices to decrease have now lost and are priced out forever. But what about students finishing college and just starting jobs. They are also priced out forever, according to you. If housing is no longer affordable for the common man, something is wrong. This is just common sense.

Leaving the playground now. Thanks for the fascinating commentary I enjoy as I lurk on the outskirts. :)

Call it Crazy says

Moderate Infidel says

Analyzer says

Also, how is pent up demand measured?

By magical thinking.

Do you believe in unicorns???

I used to until a Leprechaun told me they weren't real.

veruca says

Leaving the playground now. Thanks for the fascinating commentary I enjoy as
I lurk on the outskirts. :)

Welcome Veruca! No, not one of the hip kids on the playground, but I also enjoy the commentary and if one evokes a thought I enjoy writing it, as I believe you did.

OurBroker says

nstance, the FHA is now allowing people who lost their homes to foreclosures and short sales to refinance in as little as 12 months. There is pent-up demand from the past five or six years. If we advance legalized immigration we can add another 3 million buyers over the next few years. Etc.

I wouldnt expect the bulk of illegal aliens, many of whom work at menial jobs to be able to afford homes- especially with the higher prices and interest rates.

Trying to get former foreclosed buyers in 12 months to qualify again is a dumb idea.Its desperate tricks like that to keep the mortgages flowing and the prices rising that destroy a legitimate housing market

David Losh says

a point where only the wealthy can afford to own a home

Hold on hold on hold on. I sympathize with this idea in cities like SF/NYC/LA, but we have now bundled so much of our California salaries into a fat savings account that we are now looking to just move back to the southeast where we can buy any house cash with our current DP and get out of the rat race.

Wealthy Chinese:SanFran::middle income Californians:non-coastal US

David Losh says

It may be that we are at a point where only the wealthy can afford to own a
home.

Is that really that bad? Consider that for most people that DO own a home, that's where a lot of their savings went to, and a good portion of their future income. Could that be why most boomers have little to no retirement money set aside, and all the liquid and financial assets ownership are concentrated in a very small group that owns 80-90% of them?

>>>Trying to get former foreclosed buyers in 12 months to qualify again is a dumb idea. Its desperate tricks like that to keep the mortgages flowing and the prices rising that destroy a legitimate housing market.

I'm not saying your wrong, just that this is happening.

Interestingly I was just sent a Zillow report for a group of houses for sale in Orange County, and the majority of them had price reductions. What gives?

OurBroker says

>>>Trying to get former foreclosed buyers in 12 months to qualify again is a dumb idea. Its desperate tricks like that to keep the mortgages flowing and the prices rising that destroy a legitimate housing market.

I'm not saying your wrong, just that this is happening.

Correct-it is a plan that they are pushing. Are there any preliminary #'s that show how many are/can take advantage

I wouldn't pin a housing recovery on the worst credit risks in the country or on illegal aliens

upisdown says

David Losh says

It may be that we are at a point where only the wealthy can afford to own a

home.

Is that really that bad? Consider that for most people that DO own a home, that's where a lot of their savings went to, and a good portion of their future income. Could that be why most boomers have little to no retirement money set aside, and all the liquid and financial assets ownership are concentrated in a very small group that owns 80-90% of them?

You make a good point-plenty of people own homes- but the pipe line of new homeowners is almost non existent -the age group 18-28 is in bad shape to buy-they are underemployed as a group and have lots of debt already from college
http://smaulgld.com/student-loans-and-unemployment-are-holding-back-the-economy-and-real-estate-market/

This housing market may be running out of steam..................

Thanks to all that subscribed to smaulgld.com today

I am still waiting to hear what will be the main drivers to support a continued rise in home prices? Investors? Job creation? Interest rates? or the hope of pent up demand?

Anecdotal evidence but I am looking in counties surrounding NYC and am seeing tons of price drops. Nearly every house I look at has been reduced at least two times in the last 6 months.