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Republicans are delusional about US spending and deficits


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2013 Oct 16, 1:22am   56,552 views  201 comments

by finehoe   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

The story of out-of-control debts and deficits is just plain wrong. Less polite people would call it a lie, but it stands at the center of the public debate because the media consider it rude to point out a truth that would embarrass so many important politicians. The idea that we face a longer term deficit problem of enormous proportions has little better grounding in reality.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/14/shutdown-republicans-government-spending-delusions

#politics

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81   tatupu70   2013 Oct 20, 8:57am  

thomaswong.1986 says

the criticism against Reith is a fair one. many liberals talk of unfair or
declining wages yet make


no comments regarding domestic and foreign competition.

Thomas--

Come on--you're smarter than this. There's another thread on here talking about how the difference between the top executive's pay and the median worker is larger than ever. And corporate profits are at record levels. Obviously foreign competition is not holding down profits or keeping executive pay down.

That explanation is BS.

82   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 20, 9:15am  

tatupu70 says

Come on--you're smarter than this. There's another thread on here talking about how the difference between the top executive's pay and the median worker is larger than ever. And corporate profits are at record levels. Obviously foreign competition is not holding down profits or keeping executive pay down.

top executives are paid ALOT..yes this is true.. were the orginal founders ... no they made far far less but kept a large share in equity. Somewhere there is an offset when outsiders are hired.

you want more pay for workers.. talk to HR people about that..

the answer over foreign competition is even more obvious answer ...

how many times have you heard of a Japanese Car Maker going into Bankruptcy

due to lower sales and higher expenses ?

83   tatupu70   2013 Oct 20, 9:24am  

thomaswong.1986 says

you want more pay for workers.. talk to HR people about that..

lol. How would that conversation go. "I think the CEO making $20MM in pay/bonus/options is too much especially when you consider that he's paying the rank and file workers slightly over minimum wage."

I'm sure the HR manager would call the chairman up and recommend that the CEO salary be reduced immediately.

thomaswong.1986 says

how many times have you heard of a Japanese Car Maker going into Bankruptcy


due to lower sales and higher expenses ?

How much do Japanese car maker's CEOs make?

84   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 20, 9:32am  

tatupu70 says

How much do Japanese car maker's CEOs make?

i have no idea how much they make its not an issue..

the issue is how do we selling more cars than the Japanese competition and making Toyota/Nissan less profitable. That is what the focus should be.. everything is a distraction and smoke screen from the real issue.

You make US products dominate the world markets then of course you have pricing power and room to grow costs.

85   tatupu70   2013 Oct 20, 9:40am  

thomaswong.1986 says

the issue is how do we selling more cars than the Japanese competition and
making Toyota/Nissan less profitable. That is what the focus should be..
everything is a distraction and smoke screen from the real issue.

Actually, that's not the issue at all. You initially stated that US companies can't increase pay to the rank and file because foreign competition was too fierce. Do you agree that with record profitability and CEO pay, there actually is room?

86   Homeboy   2013 Oct 20, 9:43am  

thomaswong.1986 says

The tax increases in first term did nothing to promote business activity. Perhaps you have forgotten how Capital Gains tax was cut after 1997 by Clinton which provided much needed capital to hire many workers.. "In 1997, Clinton signed a reduction in the (audible liberal gasp) capital gains tax rate to 20% from 28%." . It was after the 1997 tax cut did the

economy boom and capital spending skyrocketed.

Bullshit.

87   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 20, 10:13am  

tatupu70 says

Actually, that's not the issue at all. You initially stated that US companies can't increase pay to the rank and file because foreign competition was too fierce. Do you agree that with record profitability and CEO pay, there actually is room?

My opinion is unimportant... You should find several Liberal Leaning CEOs from a publicly traded company that will agree with you and will implement lower salaries for those at the top. Perhaps they will also implement mandatory salary/wage cuts across the board when things dont reach quota.. or how about firing all if revenues/profits are not met. When things go bad only a few usually at the top get paddled.

Back in Clinton's era, Congress disqualified the expense deduction of CEOs and Officers salary above $1M. so what ever results were you seeking back than didnt change.

Today, you want to impose greater government control over the private sector pay... all for the sake of fairness. Good luck with that ?

88   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 20, 10:15am  

bgamall4 says

That is a lie. Did you know that back in the 90's, 50 percent of the people lived paycheck to paycheck and now it is up to 76 percent? How high can it go before the society disintegrates, Wong?

and where did the house bubble start..Home prices only go up and up.. buy now or be priced forever.

89   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 20, 10:18am  

Homeboy says

Bullshit.

so there was no cut in capital gains in 1997 ?

how do you explain the rush with over $150 Billion in Venture Capital flooding the start ups ?

https://www.pwcmoneytree.com/MTPublic/ns/nav.jsp?page=historical

90   tatupu70   2013 Oct 20, 10:45am  

thomaswong.1986 says

Today, you want to impose greater government control over the private sector
pay... all for the sake of fairness. Good luck with that ?

Nope--I'd like to see boards of directors actually become independent and their members grow a pair so they can do their job and represent the shareholders rather than the company's management.

91   tatupu70   2013 Oct 20, 10:46am  

thomaswong.1986 says

Back in Clinton's era, Congress disqualified the expense deduction of CEOs
and Officers salary above $1M. so what ever results were you seeking back than
didnt change.

Let's raise capital gains up to where they belong. That's a start.

92   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 20, 10:57am  

tatupu70 says

Let's raise capital gains up to where they belong. That's a start.

why is your number better than another.. where do you peg it "belongs"? Not going to happen...

"Probably there are people in this room still mad at me at that budget because you think I raised your taxes too much. It might surprise you to know that I think I raised them too much, too."

- Bill Clinton 1995

93   mell   2013 Oct 20, 11:05am  

tatupu70 says

thomaswong.1986 says

Back in Clinton's era, Congress disqualified the expense deduction of CEOs

and Officers salary above $1M. so what ever results were you seeking back than

didnt change.

Let's raise capital gains up to where they belong. That's a start.

The right number for that will always be in debate. However there is a difference between stock options (while you work at the company) and stocks bought on the open market. The stock options have no risk associated with them as you don't have to exercise them, so these gains behave more like regular income as compared to gains from regular stock purchases. Furthermore no raise of capital tax rates without eliminating all deductions and loopholes, such as mortgage interest deductions and capital gains exemption from house sales after 2 years.

94   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 20, 11:13am  

mell says

Furthermore no raise of capital tax rates without eliminating all deductions and loopholes, such as mortgage interest deductions and capital gains exemption from house sales after 2 years.

LOL! Why do you hate home ownership and the American dream ?

.
.
(Psst... I do agree)

95   mell   2013 Oct 20, 11:24am  

thomaswong.1986 says

mell says

Furthermore no raise of capital tax rates without eliminating all deductions and loopholes, such as mortgage interest deductions and capital gains exemption from house sales after 2 years.

LOL! Why do you hate home ownership and the American dream ?

.

.

(Psst... I do agree)

Ever since I realized the best times were those hacking years back then at Sun Microsystems when we slept in the labs, medical rooms or in our cars and weren't missing much ;)

96   Homeboy   2013 Oct 20, 4:16pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

so there was no cut in capital gains in 1997 ?

Did I say that?

how do you explain the rush with over $150 Billion in Venture Capital flooding the start ups ?

Um, we were talking about JOBS. Unemployment went UP starting in 2000. Where was the job-creating effect of that cut in capital gains rate? I'm not denying that a flurry of stock market investing follows cuts in the capital gains rate; in fact I specifically mentioned that it helps the investor class. But we were talking about whether it helps the WORKING class, and no, it does not.

You seem to be having an imaginary argument with someone other than me. Did I say tax increases promote business activity? No, I simply said cutting the capital gains rate does NOT promote business activity. You are committing the fallacy of denying the antecedent. The reason to tax capital gains as ordinary income would be to balance the budget by ending preferential tax treatment for the investor class. The problem could be solved without people going hungry or dying from lack of medical care.

What happened when Clinton slightly cut the capital gains rate? The long trend of declining unemployment reversed, and people started losing jobs again for the first time in 8 years. Unemployment declined throughout Clinton's first term yet you inexplicably claim that there were no economic effects during the Clinton era until 1997. Cherry pick data much?

What happened when Bush further cut the capital gains rate? Overleveraging in the financial sector, housing bubble, Wall Street coup, and the destruction of the US economy, which has resulted in one of the worst wealth disparity situations in the world.

Trickle. Down. Doesn't. Work.

97   Homeboy   2013 Oct 20, 4:28pm  

mell says

The right number for that will always be in debate. However there is a difference between stock options (while you work at the company) and stocks bought on the open market. The stock options have no risk associated with them as you don't have to exercise them, so these gains behave more like regular income as compared to gains from regular stock purchases. Furthermore no raise of capital tax rates without eliminating all deductions and loopholes, such as mortgage interest deductions and capital gains exemption from house sales after 2 years.

Or we could just tax capital gains as ordinary income. Period.

98   freak80   2013 Oct 20, 9:46pm  

Homeboy says

Or we could just tax capital gains as ordinary income. Period.

COMMUNIST!!!

99   freak80   2013 Oct 20, 9:47pm  

Homeboy says

You seem to be having an imaginary argument with someone other than me.

Mell does that a lot. It takes some getting used to.

100   mell   2013 Oct 20, 11:48pm  

Homeboy says

Or we could just tax capital gains as ordinary income. Period.

Could be a possibility if income taxes come down. But taking a risk or doing a job where you could lose all your money instead of making money is very different form a guaranteed paycheck. Furthermore stock losses would need to be able to be completely written off at once, not asymmetrical like it is now, i.e you get taxed instantly for the full amount of the gain, but you can only write off a tiny amount of losses per year. In any case I am opposed to any raises as long as there are loopholes and deductions for other types of gains and/or debt. Btw. if the market would have been allowed to correct itself in 2008 there would not be that much calls for a capital gains debate as the money possibly collected from those gains would not matter much amidst a sea of losses.

101   tts   2013 Oct 21, 12:21am  

thomaswong.1986 says

many liberals talk of unfair or declining wages yet make no comments regarding domestic and foreign competition.

The Left view on this subject is that capital has too much freedom and power in and between nations and too often gets to set or even dictate its own rules to labor. Global wage arbitrage was not an issue for instance until the 70's/80's when corporations were allowed to move jobs and factories en mass to foreign nations. This was essentially a trade of long term prosperity for short term cheap goods and it has done us no good.

I have no clue what you think your chart shows but whatever you're thinking is probably incorrect. It clearly shows employment being higher until the recession hit. That jobs have not recovered since then is due to businesses taking advantage of Labor's lack of bargaining power by having less people do more. This is why productivity keeps going up even though wages have stagnated or fallen.

102   tts   2013 Oct 21, 12:24am  

thomaswong.1986 says

you want more pay for workers.. talk to HR people about that..

HR takes their marching orders from the VIP's, not the other way around.

The only thing that will break the trend of people being paid less to more is for Labor to organize and demand their fair share of the pie.

The alternative is to watch America develop a massive and permanent underclass of people who are essentially viewed as disposable by the monied interests. Or in other words a return to a late 1800's/early 1900's style economy and society.

IMO were probably already about half way there.

thomaswong.1986 says

how many times have you heard of a Japanese Car Maker going into Bankruptcy

You know the Japanese mega corps get tons of assistance from the Japanese govt. right? The pretty much run the show over there, not unlike the Korean Chaebol's:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keiretsu

They don't go to bankruptcy because they have what amounts to Too Big To Fail status, not because they're ran so well.

103   tts   2013 Oct 21, 12:37am  

thomaswong.1986 says

They lost because they screwed up and Clinton knew it.

Screwed up where and on what? Clinton hadn't done a huge amount by that point, the biggest thing then was Hillarycare, which had tons of bad press by R's but never even got implemented.

thomaswong.1986 says

Everyone knows about Capital Gains and everyone uses it.

Most people don't even know how tax brackets work but you're going to claim, with no proof again, that everyone knows about capital gains taxes? Also only about half of Americans own some sort of stock, so no everyone doesn't use it.
thomaswong.1986 says

There is no 1% here as some would like to claim.

I love it when people post stuff like this. Totally discredits anything else they say for-ever.

104   freak80   2013 Oct 21, 1:09am  

tts says

I love it when people post stuff like this. Totally discredits anything else they say for-ever.

Agree. I try to tune-out the Foxbots and Rushbots. It's the same B.S. over and over.

105   zzyzzx   2013 Oct 21, 1:27am  

Homeboy says

Um, we were talking about JOBS. Unemployment went UP starting in 2000.

That was at least partially the result of the end of the Y2K scare employment bubble. You know, when people for some reason thought that anything that used electricity would stop working on Jan 01, 2000.

106   finehoe   2013 Oct 21, 1:33am  

tatupu70 says

Come on--you're smarter than this.

Ha! He's not called "WrongWong" for nothing.

107   tts   2013 Oct 21, 2:38am  

mell says

But taking a risk or doing a job where you could lose all your money instead of making money is very different form a guaranteed paycheck

Capital gains are taxes on profits not principal. If someone is losing their shirt/house/car due to a bad stock call it won't be due to capital gains taxes. It'll most likely be due to them making a bad call and using debt to finance it.

mell says

In any case I am opposed to any raises as long as there are loopholes and deductions for other types of gains and/or debt.

There will always be loopholes and ways to abuse any tax law, particularly for the very rich, so this is at best poor reasoning.

mell says

Btw. if the market would have been allowed to correct itself in 2008 there would not be that much calls for a capital gains debate as the money possibly collected from those gains would not matter much amidst a sea of losses.

Unfortunately if the market had been allowed to correct itself back then there would be no market and the modern economy does need the market. IMO it should have been done in a better manner, by putting the bad banks in receivership and manage the bad debt over time. I know the banks/regulators claim it wasn't possible but they said the same thing to William Black back in the S&L days and it worked just fine.

More importantly though if capital gains taxes had been higher there may not have been such a bubble to begin (less money for the banks to mal-invest) with and if there had anyways it would've been smaller in magnitude and the govt. could've been redistributing the money throughout the rest of the country. Which would've allowed the US to weather a major recession in a much better fashion.

108   tatupu70   2013 Oct 21, 2:54am  

mell says

But taking a risk or doing a job where you could lose all your money instead of
making money is very different form a guaranteed paycheck.

Yes, in one case you have to sacrifice your time and energy and in the other you just sit back and make money while sipping umbrella drinks in the Caribbean.

You think money earned by sweat should be taxed MORE than money made doing nothing?

109   mell   2013 Oct 21, 3:26am  

tts says

More importantly though if capital gains taxes had been higher there may not have been such a bubble to begin (less money for the banks to mal-invest) with

Why? It would have taken them just a tad bit longer, but without tail-risk nothing will change.

tts says

Unfortunately if the market had been allowed to correct itself back then there would be no market and the modern economy does need the market.

No it doesn't - DOW 6000 is also market, but one where people speculate far less, no matter what the capital gains tax is.

tatupu70 says

Yes, in one case you have to sacrifice your time and energy and in the other you just sit back and make money while sipping umbrella drinks in the Caribbean.

You think money earned by sweat should be taxed MORE than money made doing nothing?

You take money that you already earned from your sweat job and that has been already taxed to invest and you bear the full brunt of the risk. This imagery of siting in the Carribean while watching your accounts multiply is mostly just fantasy, esp. in a real market with all the tail-risk. What's next, paying and taxing people by how much you think they are sweating/thinking/working at their job? Most full-time traders I know work more than the average person and often have a second "normal" job.

That being said, I consider short-term investments and flips less productive than long-term investment that give corporations necessary capital to develop (e.g. development stage biotech), so maybe the distinction we currently have in taxing short vs. long term investments is not all that bad.

However the problem is not the capital gains tax, it's removing the tail-risk for some insiders and sectors that can blow assets bubbles that pop when retail finally gets on board, and while retail bears the full brunt of their losses, the few TBTFs caught in this as well will be bailed out by the same retail middle-class citizens - double-whammy!

110   tatupu70   2013 Oct 21, 3:30am  

mell says

You take money that you already earned from your sweat job and that has been
already taxed to invest and you bear the full brunt of the risk

Yes, and expect commensurate return for the risk. What's your point? Please give me one reason why capital gains should be taxed LESS than labor. Just one.

mell says

However the problem is not the capital gains tax, it's removing the tail-risk
for some insiders and sectors that can blow assets bubbles that pop when retail
finally gets on board, and while retail bears the full brunt of their losses,
the few TBTFs caught in this as well will be bailed out by the same retail
middle-class citizens - double-whammy!

Well, we have many problems, but capital gains tax rate is a big one. Moral hazard is way down the list, IMO. But, break up the TBTF immediately, if that's what you're worried about. I'm all for it!

111   freak80   2013 Oct 21, 11:03pm  

tatupu70 says

You think money earned by sweat should be taxed MORE than money made doing nothing?

Absolutely. People who earn their money from labor are ASSHOLES!

112   tatupu70   2013 Oct 21, 11:12pm  

tatupu70 says

Please give me one reason why capital gains should be taxed LESS than labor.
Just one.

I'll take your silence as indication that you have no good reasons.

113   mell   2013 Oct 22, 1:38am  

tts says

Capital gains are taxes on profits not principal. If someone is losing their shirt/house/car due to a bad stock call it won't be due to capital gains taxes. It'll most likely be due to them making a bad call and using debt to finance it.

Investing into companies, esp. long-term, is not just "betting", you are loaning them your cash for product development. It's irrelevant whether you use debt (margin financing for equity investments is super strict as opposed to housing and there are no bailouts) or not and whether you consider it a bet or not, it comes from already taxed money most people have earned in another job. When there are zero deductions, capital gains exemptions and pre-tax opportunities across the board to fund other assets such as housing, then we can talk about capital gains tax rates, before it's a no-no. And once we achieve the former, overall income tax rates can likely be lowered due to the money taken in from eliminating loopholes and exemptions.

tatupu70 says

I'll take your silence as indication that you have no good reasons.

I've given you my reasons, esp. for long term investments. You had noting of significance for rebuttal, so there is nothing for me to say. Otherwise, see above.

114   tatupu70   2013 Oct 22, 1:52am  

mell says

it comes from already taxed money most people have earned in another job.

So what? Is there some golden rule that money can only be taxed once? Every dollar in existance has been taxed an uncountable number of times. Who cares?

mell says

When there are zero deductions, capital gains exemptions and pre-tax
opportunities across the board to fund other assets such as housing, then we can
talk about capital gains tax rates, before it's a no-no.

Why? We can't talk about two things at once? Why is one more important than the other?

mell says

I've given you my reasons, esp. for long term investments. You had noting of
significance for rebuttal, so there is nothing for me to say. Otherwise, see
above.

You can't repeat them again? They must really be good ones if you're afraid to clearly state them in a new post.

115   mell   2013 Oct 22, 2:33am  

mell says

1. Yes you can.

2. Short term speculation, even a trade that lasts 5 minutes, has a long term capital gains tax rate on 60% of the profit. This is the 60/40 rule that applies to commodities and traders have been screwing people for decades.

It's impossible to foresee company developments or market conditions over a year or years, you cannot rely on that as source of income, 2008 comes along and your long-term investments are gone. Why do you think all the TBTFs and major power brokers/funds now make a guaranteed major chunk of their money with HFT/algo and short-term trades? Because that's where they have an unfair edge. Long-term, not so much.

116   tatupu70   2013 Oct 22, 2:39am  

mell says

It's impossible to foresee company developments or market conditions over a
year or years, you cannot rely on that as source of income, 2008 comes along and
your long-term investments are gone. Why do you think all the TBTFs and major
power brokers/funds now make a guaranteed major chunk of their money with
HFT/algo and short-term trades? Because that's where they have an unfair edge.
Long-term, not so much.

So how about we put a special tax on short term trading in addition to increasing capital gains rates to the same as labor?

117   tatupu70   2013 Oct 22, 2:44am  

mell says

Long-term investment is not speculation, it is giving companies much needed
cash to develop their products. E.g. biotech could not exist without cash
infusions from investors throughout their entire development stage cycle which
can easily last 10-20 years.

Nor could it exist without smart people actually developing products that make our lives better.

But you think that the people who come up with the product should be taxed MORE than the people who give them money?

118   mell   2013 Oct 22, 2:45am  

tatupu70 says

So how about we put a special tax on short term trading in addition to increasing capital gains rates to the same as labor?

A transaction tax could solve this (esp. with regards to HFT, but also requiring bids and asks to stand for a minimum duration to maintain fairness), but every tax has pros and cons. Again, if all deductions and exemptions are eliminated I could support it, but not before. Also I would like to see a lower income tax overall once everything is taxed the same and loopholes and exemptions have been eliminated. Maybe flat 25% or 30%, and if progressive, then the rates for middle-class and upper middle-class should be significantly lowered. And spending curtailed of course ;)

119   tatupu70   2013 Oct 22, 2:47am  

mell says

Again, if all deductions and exemptions are eliminated I could support it, but
not befor

Seriously--you can only handle one good idea at a time? You need some work on time management.

120   mell   2013 Oct 22, 3:03am  

tatupu70 says

mell says

Again, if all deductions and exemptions are eliminated I could support it, but

not befor

Seriously--you can only handle one good idea at a time? You need some work on time management.

Fairness aka equal opportunity comes way before redistribution and equalizing. That's all. But yes, I am open to all proposals in the right order. Discussion is important, but a blow-hard I-am-always-right mentality as shown by some does not advance this topic at all. But, hey it's just an internet forum ;)

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