patrick.net

I get it now, existing home sales are down because people are buying new homes? :-)

Call it Crazy says

Ha Ha... yeah that's it....

Maybe not....

Nah, its the weather

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

I get it now, existing home sales are down because people are buying new homes? :-)

Ha Ha... yeah that's it....

Maybe not....

Rub it in guys. All that matters is price.
If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

Strategist says

If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

... if they can find buyers

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

I get it now, existing home sales are down because people are buying new homes? :-)

Ha Ha... yeah that's it....

Maybe not....

Rub it in guys. All that matters is price.

If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

and everyone else will be living in refrigerator boxes....

You bears are having too much fun today.
Next month you'll be sorry.

Strategist says

You bears are having too much fun today.

Next month you'll be sorry.

Why? I am making observations. If somehow sales surge next month I will observe and comment

smaulgld says

Strategist says

You bears are having too much fun today.

Next month you'll be sorry.

Why? I am making observations. If somehow sales surge next month I will observe and comment

You guys really think low sales will continue?
You really think they can keep building just a few homes in the face of a rising population?
If the Feds already spent $4 trillion to save housing and the economy, are they just gonna sit back and let everything go down the sewage?
If that's what you think, you will be sorry.

Strategist says

You guys really think low sales will continue?

You really think they can keep building just a few homes in the face of a rising population?

Yes unless prices drop and the labor market improves
There is no shortage of housing or land in this country

smaulgld says

There is no shortage of housing or land in this country

True at macro level. There are shortages in desirable neighborhoods.

hanera says

smaulgld says

There is no shortage of housing or land in this country

True at macro level. There are shortages in desirable neighborhoods.

100 pct correct but they are but a handful of the more expensive metros

Everything in my freezer is frozen. I don't know if it's a good time to buy a house.

I rent rather than own in San Diego. I’m 25 and have $110k saved up towards a downpayment and zero debt with a $100k plus career. Prices here in San Diego are definitely “wishful” these days, with a meteoric 20%+ rise in prices over the last year. At this point an under 1000 square foot fixer in a decent neighborhood goes for over $500k. I just can’t justify these prices and prefer to rent.

I currently pay $900 all included to live 1/2 block from the beach in a rich area and enjoy my extra savings. I hope that the market returns to normal in the next several years, but who knows? If prices recede 15-20% I will feel more comfortable buying. I don’t expect a 50% drop or any other doomsday prophecies. Time will tell if my waiting was worthwhile, or if prices will continue ever higher.

Strategist says

Rub it in guys. All that matters is price.

If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

You mean, "Those who sold." It's incredible to me how often people comment here on how great a decision they made to buy based on how houses are selling now. Are you going to sell?

If you are going to sell, then what about the stability of owning? I thought a primary benefit of owning was stability. If you're constantly thinking about house prices, how is that stable?

House prices are going up and down too much right now. Decades of history say they don't go up that much over time so I'm basing my decision to rent on that among other data.

FunTime says

I thought a primary benefit of owning was stability

The Fed's manipulation of interest rates in the 2000's and it QE money printing program the past five years created this volatility

Kristopher says

I rent rather than own in San Diego. I’m 25 and have $110k saved up towards a downpayment and zero debt with a $100k plus career. Prices here in San Diego are definitely “wishful” these days, with a meteoric 20%+ rise in prices over the last year. At this point an under 1000 square foot fixer in a decent neighborhood goes for over $500k. I just can’t justify these prices and prefer to rent.

I currently pay $900 all included to live 1/2 block from the beach in a rich area and enjoy my extra savings. I hope that the market returns to normal in the next several years, but who knows? If prices recede 15-20% I will feel more comfortable buying. I don’t expect a 50% drop or any other doomsday prophecies. Time will tell if my waiting was worthwhile, or if prices will continue ever higher.

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?
You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

Strategist says

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?

You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

He is probably not interested in going into debt if he has liquid assets and a liquid lifestyle and low cost of shelter via renting

FunTime says

Strategist says

Rub it in guys. All that matters is price.


If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

You mean, "Those who sold." It's incredible to me how often people comment here on how great a decision they made to buy based on how houses are selling now. Are you going to sell?

Sell? me? hell no.
I'm riding the bull.

smaulgld says

Strategist says

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?

You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

He is probably not interested in going into debt if he has liquid assets and a liquid lifestyle and low cost of shelter via renting

Oh he will buy, trust me.
When prices are 50% higher, he will get desperate and buy, because most people don't like to pay rent forever.
Like I said, he will be soorrrryyyy.

Strategist says

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?

You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

Perhaps it is because I pay less than $1000 per month to live steps from one of the most famous beaches in the world. Houses go for $1.5 million at a minimum in this community. Pouring all of my savings into a home will land me in a tiny home in a mediocre area in San Diego.

kristopher, invest that "down payment" and it will be a ton of dough in 5 years or so.
Then take 1/2 of it to use as a down payment if you must, the other 1/2 let it ride.

Don't be suckered in the the "dream", you're living it already.

Strategist says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Strategist says

Rents are at record highs.

My rent hasn't change per sqft since 1997. Your milage may vary. If prices were cut in half from today, I might be a potential buyer. So, yah, it is partly affordability. The other part is because the temperatures have not been in the 19-22 degree range during the noon to 4pm window. Everyone understands how that relates to people making the biggest purchase of their lives.

Either your landlord is your mom, or one stupid businessman.

Nah, he just keeps moving to shittier places in shittier neighborhoods.

Kristopher says

Strategist says

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?

You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

Perhaps it is because I pay less than $1000 per month to live steps from one of the most famous beaches in the world. Houses go for $1.5 million at a minimum in this community. Pouring all of my savings into a home will land me in a tiny home in a mediocre area in San Diego.

How in the world did you end up with $1,000 rent in a 1.5 million home?
I would buy and rent it out. Eventually you will need a place of your own. Wait till you get married...you don't know how wives can be.

Strategist says

How in the world did you end up with $1,000 rent in a 1.5 million home?

I would buy and rent it out. Eventually you will need a place of your own. Wait till you get married...you don't know how wives can be.

My reply may have been unclear. I live in a 6 unit apartment complex across the street from million dollar houses. Most homes in this area start at $1.5 million. I only mention this to show how wacky the rent vs. buy calculation runs in a situation like this. Buying at this point in time seems insane to me, but as you said perhaps i'm wrong and prices will rise even higher over the coming years.

Kristopher says

but as you said perhaps i'm wrong and prices will rise even higher over the coming years

and you might continue to make more money and save more money!

The only reason to go heavily into debt for kristopher is if he decides he wants to have children and a wife.

Until then, keep your powder dry but don't keep it in cash, Vanguard Wellington, Vanguard Dividend Growth, etc. Get something for your capital.

James Bond made lots in those casinos, he had fun and he lived in apartment as I recall.

They'd kill one of his girlfriends so he'd find another one before the movie was over.

Debt or liquid net worth, hmmm, not a tough decision for a single guy.

clambo - Congras. AH, AAPL shot up by $41.

smaulgld says

Kristopher says

but as you said perhaps i'm wrong and prices will rise even higher over the coming years

and you might continue to make more money and save more money!

A 25 year old who makes $100,000+, and has saved up 100,000+ must know what he's doing. I'm sure you can make your own decisions.
When I was 25 I was still a student, dead broke, and chasing girls.
I wanted to be a gynecologist in Beverly Hills.

Call it Crazy says

Probably no females in his life.....

Haha, luckily I have a girlfriend of 3 years who has supported me all the way. It's been a rough road working copious amounts of extra hours and denying myself some of the trips and fun things that my friends and coworkers partake in. Right now the $110k is just a number on a screen, but i'm hoping the saving pays off someday.

Kristopher says

Call it Crazy says

Probably no females in his life.....

Haha, luckily I have a girlfriend of 3 years who has supported me all the way. It's been a rough road working copious amounts of extra hours and denying myself some of the trips and fun things that my friends and coworkers partake in. Right now the $110k is just a number on a screen, but i'm hoping the saving pays off someday.

See that Crazy, his girl supports him so he can save up, we got the wrong women.

Kristopher says

Call it Crazy says

Probably no females in his life.....

Haha, luckily I have a girlfriend of 3 years who has supported me all the way. It's been a rough road working copious amounts of extra hours and denying myself some of the trips and fun things that my friends and coworkers partake in. Right now the $110k is just a number on a screen, but i'm hoping the saving pays off someday.

I hope it's invested instead of sitting in a zero% bank account.

Strategist says

I hope it's invested instead of sitting in a zero% bank account

Unfortunately it's parked in a savings account earning .9% interest. Yay! My prospective timetable is 3-5 years and i'm uncomfortable dropping it in an equity market that currently sits just off of all-time highs. I'm disgusted by the current actions of the fed and the outright manipulation by parties too numerous to count. My whole theory of a 15-20% price drop kind of corresponds with a correction in the market anyways, so i'll keep it safely in savings for the moment.

jesus don't lend your money to a bank!

the way to not "lose" in a small stock market dip is simple: don't sell.

Fidelity contrafund #2 stock is Berkshire Hathaway=Warren Buffet. Do you want Buffet managing your money for essentially free?

Vanguard Dividend Growth and Vanguard Wellington are also not going to take a shit on you in any likelihood.

have fun either way, cash is nice to have.

This time it's different.

Recovery will be complete when there will be single listing in the entire zip code and people will literally kill each other with their bare hands to get their hands on the property.

bubblesitter says

Recovery will be complete when there will be single listing in the entire zip code and people will literally kill each other with their bare hands to get their hands on the property.

Reporters will line up to watch and each story will blurt RECOVERY!

Kristopher says

Strategist says

I hope it's invested instead of sitting in a zero% bank account

Unfortunately it's parked in a savings account earning .9% interest. Yay! My prospective timetable is 3-5 years and i'm uncomfortable dropping it in an equity market that currently sits just off of all-time highs. I'm disgusted by the current actions of the fed and the outright manipulation by parties too numerous to count. My whole theory of a 15-20% price drop kind of corresponds with a correction in the market anyways, so i'll keep it safely in savings for the moment.

You are very, very smart. My husband and I waited too, made a good salary, saved cash, kept out of debt and lived and rented. Well, we are now retired before sixty, moved to a nice area in the mountains, bought a nice home and no other debt. Went to a nice area where a 3300 sq ft 4 bedroom, 2 bath over 1 acre cost us less than 220k, so enjoy, save, stay out of debt, rent low like you are doing. Then before you retire get the nice home and enjoy!

Call it Crazy says

See that Crazy, his girl supports him so he can save up, we got the wrong women.

Damn, we're doing something wrong here.... Denying trips?? How's he pulling that off???

Crap, I got stuck having to take the woman on a cruise for our anniversary in two weeks....

It's horrible isn't it, having to go on a cruise. I feel your pain.
PS...we go all the time, and if it's your first time, here is something that always works...tip the maitre de $20.00 or $40.00 the very first day. He will make damn sure you get anything you want, like special foods, seating etc. for the whole cruise.

Kristopher says

Strategist says

I hope it's invested instead of sitting in a zero% bank account

Unfortunately it's parked in a savings account earning .9% interest. Yay! My prospective timetable is 3-5 years and i'm uncomfortable dropping it in an equity market that currently sits just off of all-time highs. I'm disgusted by the current actions of the fed and the outright manipulation by parties too numerous to count. My whole theory of a 15-20% price drop kind of corresponds with a correction in the market anyways, so i'll keep it safely in savings for the moment.

At age 25 you put it in a savings account. Wow. That's really risk averse.
I turned 50 and I still buy options.
If you are comfortable with it, why not?

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Call it Crazy says

See that Crazy, his girl supports him so he can save up, we got the wrong women.

Damn, we're doing something wrong here.... Denying trips?? How's he pulling that off???

Crap, I got stuck having to take the woman on a cruise for our anniversary in two weeks....

It's horrible isn't it, having to go on a cruise. I feel your pain.

PS...we go all the time, and if it's your first time,

Not our first, I think this is #7.... Actually, I like cruises over everything else... It's just I got too much other stuff going on to lose a week taking her on a cruise...

After all, it's just an anniversary... Those things come every year, unfortunately...

Yeah, I noticed they come once a year, and faster and faster with each passing year.
Well, we both must agree that cruises are among the best value for money. I don't mind spending money, I just want maximum value for my hard earned money.
Las Vegas is also great value for money, as long as you don't get carried away with the gambling.

The lower priced homes that attract first time buyers were bought by investors and downsizing retirees for CASH.

Demographics do not forecast a robust housing recovery and rising costs do not allow builders to build an affordable product in most areas.

So sales are down while prices continue to creep upwards in many areas.

Many potential sellers are underwater when you factor in transaction costs. If you bought at X you need to sell at X plus 10% if you are going to buy another house. But if you can sell at X, you continue to make your payments.

The markets are more local today so national distressed sales are falling. If you want to buy there is no rush. If you want to sell, your window of opportunity may have closed.

Since the markets are more local today, you have to look at your individual situation and market. The bottom nationally has passed. The top in many markets has also passed.