patrick.net

New Renter says

Call it Crazy says

Directly from NAR today

Also directly from the NAR today:

Buy NOW or be priced out forever!

NOW is the best time to buy or sell a house!

Realtors add value and are worth far more than 6%. A tip of 20% is more appropriate and may be tax deductible!

Dues paid to the NAR buy the payer indulgences.

Have you hugged a Realtor today?

There's never been a better time to buy or sell a home
Http://smaulgld.com/real-estate-marketing/!

Call it Crazy says

Here's the best part from the head used car salesman at NAR:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that current sales activity is underperforming by historical standards. “There really should be stronger levels of home sales given our population growth,” he said. “In contrast, price growth is rising faster than historical norms because of inventory shortages.”

Yeah, blame it on the inventory again..... Amazing....

Inventory IS a problem in some markets... Which is why it should be a high priority to fix with a massive increase of residential construction in those markets.

New Renter says

Call it Crazy says

Here's the best part from the head used car salesman at NAR:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that current sales activity is underperforming by historical standards. “There really should be stronger levels of home sales given our population growth,” he said. “In contrast, price growth is rising faster than historical norms because of inventory shortages.”

Yeah, blame it on the inventory again..... Amazing....

Inventory IS a problem in some markets... Which is why it should be a high priority to fix with a massive increase of residential construction in those markets.

Not really demand is the issue not lack of inventory
Inventory has increase massively in many markets in the past few months with no increase in sales
New home construction is flat because home builders know the demand is not there

Call it Crazy says

New Renter says

Inventory IS a problem in some markets...

No it's not.... If you're looking to buy a house, and there are two in inventory, then there is one extra house available....

So which do you prefer, this?:

Or this?:

Either way that will be $5M pleaz!

Yun and his ilk will say anything, he's a hack.

Come on guys, we are talking about 2 different recoveries here. 1) Sales recovery that is not happening. 2) Price recovery, which is happening in full force. So, all that matters is # 2.

Call it Crazy says

Which recovery is the important one? More buyers or higher prices?

It would be better for the health of the economy if prices were lower and more homes were being sold

smaulgld says

It would be better for the health of the economy is prices were lower and more homes were being sold

Now, that would mean huge losses for WS, banks and government. Why would they allow lower prices?

bubblesitter says

smaulgld says

It would be better for the health of the economy is prices were lower and more homes were being sold

Now, that would mean huge losses for WS, banks and government. Why would they allow lower prices?

All of which are NOT the economy, and in fact often contribute to creating poor economic conditions rather than favorable ones.

Call it Crazy says

Hmmmm... #2 is causing #1

Yes, sometimes a #2 causes me to also have a simultaneous #1.

Strategist says

Rents are at record highs.

My rent hasn't change per sqft since 1997. Your milage may vary. If prices were cut in half from today, I might be a potential buyer. So, yah, it is partly affordability. The other part is because the temperatures have not been in the 19-22 degree range during the noon to 4pm window. Everyone understands how that relates to people making the biggest purchase of their lives.

Quigley says

All of which are NOT the economy, and in fact often contribute to creating poor economic conditions rather than favorable ones.

I understand, but this country is moving towards a 3rd world country order. Rich are becoming more rich and middle class is getting squeezed from all sides big time. I hope things don't go that far enough that it may be not be fun returning to economic equality and opportunity, which is what USA is about.

Call it Crazy says

bubblesitter says

Come on guys, we are talking about 2 different recoveries here. 1) Sales recovery that is not happening. 2) Price recovery, which is happening in full force. So, all that matters is # 2.

Hmmmm... #2 is causing #1, and #1 is going the wrong direction to help the economy and future home buyers.... Which recovery is the important one? More buyers or higher prices?

More buyers and higher home prices. I want to be rich.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Strategist says

Rents are at record highs.

My rent hasn't change per sqft since 1997. Your milage may vary. If prices were cut in half from today, I might be a potential buyer. So, yah, it is partly affordability. The other part is because the temperatures have not been in the 19-22 degree range during the noon to 4pm window. Everyone understands how that relates to people making the biggest purchase of their lives.

Either your landlord is your mom, or one stupid businessman.

smaulgld says

The ability to pay higher rents is not tied to the ability to save for a down payment or to qualify for a mortgage

It's tied to the ability to make a mortgage payment.

Call it Crazy says

New Renter says

Inventory IS a problem in some markets...

No it's not.... If you're looking to buy a house, and there are two in inventory, then there is one extra house available....

What if there are 10 buyers?

Inventory is invented by realtors. More than six months is a buyers' market. Less than six months is a sellers' market. Is a good broad indicator for explaining behavior, not sure whether the relationship is causal but certainly there is a high degree of correlation.

and new home construction is down- if there was an inventory shortage wouldn't home builders be building?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101605827

I get it now, existing home sales are down because people are buying new homes? :-)

Call it Crazy says

Ha Ha... yeah that's it....

Maybe not....

Nah, its the weather

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

I get it now, existing home sales are down because people are buying new homes? :-)

Ha Ha... yeah that's it....

Maybe not....

Rub it in guys. All that matters is price.
If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

Strategist says

If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

... if they can find buyers

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

I get it now, existing home sales are down because people are buying new homes? :-)

Ha Ha... yeah that's it....

Maybe not....

Rub it in guys. All that matters is price.

If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

and everyone else will be living in refrigerator boxes....

You bears are having too much fun today.
Next month you'll be sorry.

Strategist says

You bears are having too much fun today.

Next month you'll be sorry.

Why? I am making observations. If somehow sales surge next month I will observe and comment

smaulgld says

Strategist says

You bears are having too much fun today.

Next month you'll be sorry.

Why? I am making observations. If somehow sales surge next month I will observe and comment

You guys really think low sales will continue?
You really think they can keep building just a few homes in the face of a rising population?
If the Feds already spent $4 trillion to save housing and the economy, are they just gonna sit back and let everything go down the sewage?
If that's what you think, you will be sorry.

Strategist says

You guys really think low sales will continue?

You really think they can keep building just a few homes in the face of a rising population?

Yes unless prices drop and the labor market improves
There is no shortage of housing or land in this country

smaulgld says

There is no shortage of housing or land in this country

True at macro level. There are shortages in desirable neighborhoods.

hanera says

smaulgld says

There is no shortage of housing or land in this country

True at macro level. There are shortages in desirable neighborhoods.

100 pct correct but they are but a handful of the more expensive metros

Everything in my freezer is frozen. I don't know if it's a good time to buy a house.

I rent rather than own in San Diego. I’m 25 and have $110k saved up towards a downpayment and zero debt with a $100k plus career. Prices here in San Diego are definitely “wishful” these days, with a meteoric 20%+ rise in prices over the last year. At this point an under 1000 square foot fixer in a decent neighborhood goes for over $500k. I just can’t justify these prices and prefer to rent.

I currently pay $900 all included to live 1/2 block from the beach in a rich area and enjoy my extra savings. I hope that the market returns to normal in the next several years, but who knows? If prices recede 15-20% I will feel more comfortable buying. I don’t expect a 50% drop or any other doomsday prophecies. Time will tell if my waiting was worthwhile, or if prices will continue ever higher.

Strategist says

Rub it in guys. All that matters is price.

If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

You mean, "Those who sold." It's incredible to me how often people comment here on how great a decision they made to buy based on how houses are selling now. Are you going to sell?

If you are going to sell, then what about the stability of owning? I thought a primary benefit of owning was stability. If you're constantly thinking about house prices, how is that stable?

House prices are going up and down too much right now. Decades of history say they don't go up that much over time so I'm basing my decision to rent on that among other data.

FunTime says

I thought a primary benefit of owning was stability

The Fed's manipulation of interest rates in the 2000's and it QE money printing program the past five years created this volatility

Kristopher says

I rent rather than own in San Diego. I’m 25 and have $110k saved up towards a downpayment and zero debt with a $100k plus career. Prices here in San Diego are definitely “wishful” these days, with a meteoric 20%+ rise in prices over the last year. At this point an under 1000 square foot fixer in a decent neighborhood goes for over $500k. I just can’t justify these prices and prefer to rent.

I currently pay $900 all included to live 1/2 block from the beach in a rich area and enjoy my extra savings. I hope that the market returns to normal in the next several years, but who knows? If prices recede 15-20% I will feel more comfortable buying. I don’t expect a 50% drop or any other doomsday prophecies. Time will tell if my waiting was worthwhile, or if prices will continue ever higher.

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?
You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

Strategist says

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?

You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

He is probably not interested in going into debt if he has liquid assets and a liquid lifestyle and low cost of shelter via renting

FunTime says

Strategist says

Rub it in guys. All that matters is price.


If prices double and sales plummet, those who purchased will still be drinking champagne.

You mean, "Those who sold." It's incredible to me how often people comment here on how great a decision they made to buy based on how houses are selling now. Are you going to sell?

Sell? me? hell no.
I'm riding the bull.

smaulgld says

Strategist says

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?

You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

He is probably not interested in going into debt if he has liquid assets and a liquid lifestyle and low cost of shelter via renting

Oh he will buy, trust me.
When prices are 50% higher, he will get desperate and buy, because most people don't like to pay rent forever.
Like I said, he will be soorrrryyyy.

Strategist says

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?

You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

Perhaps it is because I pay less than $1000 per month to live steps from one of the most famous beaches in the world. Houses go for $1.5 million at a minimum in this community. Pouring all of my savings into a home will land me in a tiny home in a mediocre area in San Diego.

kristopher, invest that "down payment" and it will be a ton of dough in 5 years or so.
Then take 1/2 of it to use as a down payment if you must, the other 1/2 let it ride.

Don't be suckered in the the "dream", you're living it already.

Strategist says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Strategist says

Rents are at record highs.

My rent hasn't change per sqft since 1997. Your milage may vary. If prices were cut in half from today, I might be a potential buyer. So, yah, it is partly affordability. The other part is because the temperatures have not been in the 19-22 degree range during the noon to 4pm window. Everyone understands how that relates to people making the biggest purchase of their lives.

Either your landlord is your mom, or one stupid businessman.

Nah, he just keeps moving to shittier places in shittier neighborhoods.

Kristopher says

Strategist says

What the hell are you waiting for? What's wrong with the new generation?

You will be soorrrrryyyyy.

Perhaps it is because I pay less than $1000 per month to live steps from one of the most famous beaches in the world. Houses go for $1.5 million at a minimum in this community. Pouring all of my savings into a home will land me in a tiny home in a mediocre area in San Diego.

How in the world did you end up with $1,000 rent in a 1.5 million home?
I would buy and rent it out. Eventually you will need a place of your own. Wait till you get married...you don't know how wives can be.