S&P 500 Index -- Elliott Wave update for week ending 12/19/2014
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2014 Dec 20, 9:27pm 1,255 views 5 comments
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Done
2014 Dec 20, 11:49pm
The correlation factors particularly the short term for those who consider them maybe causing some confusion. I haven't run my numbers yet however I believe USD, S&P and USDMXN all will be heading higher which is out of the norm correlation wise. It will be interesting to see how volume adds up from now to the 1st, then beyond.
Players love to manipulate price when volume is low. I had to incorporate some tactics to overcome broker manipulation during the non-sweet spots to help keep plays on the board that had the greater odds of going my way.
This isn't the best conditions for retail investors because this environment is traders game. If you don't have a legitimate way to confirm price on the break-out if it is to come, which is more likely in my opinion then not, stand down.
From what I read in the different post many are setting on the edge of their seat waiting for the USD to fold. Just don't be holding your breath. This environment has lots of room to stretch well beyond where things sit now.
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/leaders?type=pl&cat=ytd&view=chart
http://www.barchart.com/forex/heatmap
http://www.barchart.com/forex/leaders?cat=260d
Done
2014 Dec 21, 1:10am
DXY 99.44% off 52wk low
S&P 97.42% off 52wk low
Out of all the trades in this arena I consider DXY and S&P have the highest weighted alpha. 13.5+/-
$XAU weighted alpha. -25.86 and was close to -48 before this last bump in precious metals
USD pairs out of 8 I trade hold pos weighted alpha # in the top 10 spots of 29. (precious metals not included)
The avg of 7 XAU pairs are @ 4.36, XAUUSD is -4.67
The avg of 7 XAG pairs are @ -15.88, XAGUSD is -23.05
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EXAU+Components
Done
2014 Dec 21, 10:21am
One character of the S&P I notice is the price action off the last high 12/5 to now has provided some staged support down to 2002, below that area things could get more dicey with support being spread out and not as dense.
I'm visualizing price to test all of Fridays gain then Tuesday to continue the path to new highs with high probability odds of closing at all time highs by the 1st.
USD has the most high impact economic news of all the main players threw the end of the year. The fact that S&P price only retraced to 38.2 fibs off the last low for those who use them is 1 more marker of high probability and a very strong move above the last high.
Done
2014 Dec 21, 11:03am
When this market manipulation fails
Then the next one will be up to bat.
Only 1 way to play this game, follow the money flow not the shit river media streams bought and paid for by the manipulators. The ones who follow all that crap just sets themselves up to be punked and have their money taken away.
I personally have no idea how this is all going to play out in the end and won't waste my time trying to put that puzzle together. You never really know when, where or how the boogie man is going to jump.
Done
2014 Dec 21, 11:44pm
50% volume @ 10est. in the spot markets, tomorrow should be some crazy volatility. S&P just hanging at 2073 , the area my model was pointing to as 1st stage resistance and thickens considerably @ 2080.
Something I will be weighing is how price negotiates that 7 points as well as on a retreat what takes place @ 2057 if approached.
Currently I would describe price as neutral, in no mans land. However I have my biases to the upside.
The S&P 500 Index came within $1.63 of making a new intraday high on Friday. While the Dow Jones Industrials can count as complete, making it difficult to predict whether it will make a new high, the S&P 500 does not count complete, increasing the likelihood of a new high next week.
It is not unusual for non-confirmations to occur at major inflection points. Increased volatility, along with fractured sentiment, can affect different asset classes differently. Topping is a nervous process by its nature, and major tops, like the one underway right now, will be extreme in sentiment and volatility, leading to confusion and chaos across the affected markets.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/sp-500-indexelliott-wave-update-for-week-ending-12192014/