patrick.net

Here wave at this directly from the US Treasury Department numbers

Russia $108 billion in US Treasuries
China $1.25 T

Graybox says

e simple facts are; any system can find logical price points where there are odds in price reaction.

True but first you have to have your facts straight- see above

Question: Will French street vendors be offended if you pay them with silver eagles coins?

smaulgld says

Look for Harry Dent in this link

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wilson/mar172009.html

How Best to Invest and Prosper during the Tumultuous Times Ahead (according to Dent)

1. Early to mid 2009:

a) Sell stocks, except commodity and energy sectors.

WRONG

So selective. He said buy RE in late 2011... perfect.

hanera says

smaulgld says

Look for Harry Dent in this link

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wilson/mar172009.html

How Best to Invest and Prosper during the Tumultuous Times Ahead (according to Dent)

1. Early to mid 2009:

a) Sell stocks, except commodity and energy sectors.

WRONG

So selective. He said buy RE in late 2011... perfect.

He's said a lot of things half of them wrong

smaulgld says

Russia $108 billion in US Treasuries

China $1.25 T

Don't show me U.S. Treasury figures. Every government figure is a lie by a factor of two at a minimum. Get your heads out of the sand. Labor department figures are fiction, UST figures are fiction. Fed figures are pure fairy tales. Dig deeper if you want the truth.

http://fortune.com/2011/02/09/our-dollar-chinas-2-trillion-problem/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0NYBTkE1yQ

darlag says

Fed figures are pure fairy tales. Dig deeper if you want the truth.

Fortune article is highly speculative without real evidence. If Russia had 1T in treasuries, I assure you ruble would not be at 64.

tr6 says

Fortune article is highly speculative without real evidence.

You mean other than Bernanke's own words?

smaulgld says

Wave man Harry Dent

Dent wouldn't know a wave if it splashed him in the face. Not a great example of an Elliottician.

darlag says

Dent wouldn't know a wave if it splashed him in the face. Not a great example of an Elliottician.

Who is then and what is their record?

This guy predicts gold going down to possibly 650 at 33:30 in video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcBBiy3DybI

DXY made a new high over night @95.48. and the mark I am looking for some more than usual reaction is 95.91.

Gold is heavy going into the 1300-1321+/- above that 1320-1340 is a secondary area of resistance Gold will have to climb threw.

http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/stocks/$DXY

http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/futures/GCY00

Due to fed meeting 1/28 I'm not anticipating any serious break outs however it could get crazy volatile with whiplash action in the meantime. Any breakouts during this time will have to prove price with clear and distinguishable confirmation.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?day=jan28.2015

Along with the FOMC Statement, US Crude Oil Inventories will be released.

indigenous says

Who is then and what is their record?

All of the analysts at EWI are good. Steve Hochberg, in particular. The European analyst I did an article on the other day, Brian Whitmer is excellent.

I don't really try to keep up with other analysts. They come and go. As Indigenous noted above, many who call themselves EW analysts disagree with the long view put forward by Prechter's group. My view is that they don't really understand EWT if they have a bullish outlook - and some do.

One of the best non-commercial bloggers I've ever seen is a guy named Dan Eric. He does this stuff for fun, like I do. It's not his primary source of income. His insights are eye opening some times. I like him alot.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

As for track records, there is a pervasive misunderstanding about Elliott Wave analysis. Someone here said something like - Elliott waves are perfectly clear in hindsight. There is some truth to that statement.

The waves are going to do what they are going to do. The hard part for analysts is interpreting the structure before it completes. The whole point of EW analysis is to spot major reversals before they happen. Most traders will say "you can't call tops and bottoms." Elliotticians just laugh at that. It's the whole point of using the Theory.

Sometimes the waves are crystal clear and other times they are a muddled mess. In gold for instance, I posted a chart in one of the other "EW is crap" threads where I showed my prediction for gold back in Jan 2014. I knew we had entered a 4th wave and I showed a couple possible patterns. There are always multiple options for a waves behavior. That fourth wave could have played out as a simple a-b-c zigzag, a flat, a double three, a triple three or a triangle. It eventually formed a triangle. There was never any doubt the wave was a 4th wave, the only question was what shape it would take.

In situations like that, the uninitiated might watch the multi-month perturbations and say 'this guy doesn't have a clue what he's doing.' They would be wrong of course. But I completely understand how someone who doesn't understand the theory could think it looks like voodoo.

The current market top is similar in that it is taking a long time to play out. The current second wave has formed a huge a-b-c flat which is taking weeks to finish. But there is very little doubt it will end its sideways struggle and soon succumb to the downward pressure of global deflationary forces. As I look at the futures this morning, it's possible today will mark the peak, we'll see.

BTW, when this second wave finally completes, wave three will be a doozy. Third waves are generally the strongest, most violent and most volatile waves.

smaulgld says

darlag says

Almost no one thinks it's going to happen, which is precisely why it will.

Is that normally how you rationalize things?

Extreme opinions, shared widely, constitute the single most reliable indicator of an impending change of direction for a market. If virtually everyone is thinking one way, they have already acted. Virtually everyone believes the stock market will continue to rise (according to a host of sentiment polls and indicators). That means everyone is already all in. There is no place left to go now but down.

I listen to the Alan Beaulieu at ITR they have a 95% accuracy rating, on their predictions, albeit they don't predict stock or gold but economic trends. They are adamant bout 2030 being the SHTF year.

The EW guys say the end of this decade? the ITR guys also predict something in 2018 however it will not be the "big on" according to them.

They use moving averages to predict change.

indigenous says

The EW guys say the end of this decade?

The consensus at EWI, with which I generally concur, is that Cycle degree wave _a_ started at the orthodox peak in 2000 and did an a-b-c zigzag until it bottomed in March 2009. The rise since 2009 has been Cycle wave _b_ which has drawn out an a-b-c that is peaking now. Cycle wave _c_ should be a five wave decline of Primary degree moves that will carry the markets well below the 2009 bottom. One analysis is below 400 on the Dow, certainly below 3000.

Cycle wave _c_ will be catastrophic. It will collapse quickly and violently once it gains momentum. The best target for a time phase seems to be mid-to-late 2016. That's not much time for a collapse of that magnitude. It will take some pretty nasty social mood to pull that off. But that's what Elliott Waves are indicating. And bubble theory supports the idea as well.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-reserve-and-the-u-s-congress-have-created-a-debt-crisis-of-historic-proportion/

Deflation time!

darlag says

The consensus at EWI, with which I generally concur, is that Cycle degree wave _a_ started at the orthodox peak in 2000 and did an a-b-c zigzag until it bottomed in March 2009.

General comment or specifically refer to Dow? My view for S&P index is 2000-2009 is Cycle degree wave four. Now is in Cycle degree wave five, ensuing would be SuperCycle degree type of correction of either wave two (very severe decline but relatively short) or wave four (EW calls it sideways but is a lot more damaging).

darlag says

Someone here said something like - Elliott waves are perfectly clear in hindsight

This is truth for both FA and TA. Is a non-statement. People who make this type statement is parroting what is expressed by others. They can't even explain how so.

darlag says

Most traders will say "you can't call tops and bottoms." Elliotticians just laugh at that. It's the whole point of using the Theory.

Is why I have spent many years understanding EWT. Is the only technique that can make such a forecast (accuracy depending on skill of Elliottician).

darlag says

There was never any doubt the wave was a 4th wave, the only question was what shape it would take.

Is easy to identify a wave four but impossible to identify its exact pattern and when it will complete.

hanera says

accuracy depending on skill of Elliottician

Very true. There are quacks in every profession.

hanera says

Is easy to identify a wave four but impossible to identify its exact pattern and when it will complete.

If not impossible, for sure very difficult until the majority of the wave has formed.

hanera says

General comment or specifically refer to Dow? My view for S&P index is 2000-2009 is Cycle degree wave four. Now is in Cycle degree wave five, ensuing would be SuperCycle degree type of correction of either wave two (very severe decline but relatively short) or wave four (EW calls it sideways but is a lot more damaging).

Yeah, I wasn't going that deep with this crowd. Either way, the end result will be a bear market decline of major proportion.

I don't think Prechter has a clear picture right now either. He has acceded to the possibility of a Cycle degree 5th in progress but the financial forecast hasn't changed the labels. In the end it doesn't matter. The character of the coming decline will tell the story.

Elliot Waves fit random data.

Therefore random data is predictable!

HydroCabron says

Elliot Waves fit random data.

Therefore random data is predictable!

Statistically. Don't misconstrued as a sure and/or precise thingy.
Just because the probability of coming out a five is 90% doesn't mean the next outcome is five.

Eliot wave on gold prices
http://www.mineweb.com/elliott-wave-analyst-sees-much-higher-gold-silver-prices-ahead/

WSJ on gold and silver
http://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-and-silver-buyers-take-a-shine-to-precious-metals-again-1421969156

Two who predict the $600 range and two who predict an up tick?

indigenous says

Two who predict the $600 range and two who predict an up tick?

If you are interested in bottom fishing for gold I would be careful of missing the boat as you wait for $600 although possible. The strongest logical point my model found is $920 and the over shoot is $850+/-. Before gold can get there $1000+/- more than likely will be tested hard.

Living price is always the confirmation in any market, anything other than that is pure speculation.

The dollar is showing signs of temporary weakness as suspected at these lofty heights. A pullback has likely begun (although not a given quite yet), which should carry it back into the $84-85 range over the next few months.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/u-s-dollar-indexelliott-wave-update-for-week-ending-1162015/

As for Gold, it has more upside before it eventually resumes the down trend it started in 2011. As I projected here in December, gold has started a bear market rally into Primary wave [B] which will last several more months before finally succumbing to Primary wave [C].

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/gold-elliott-wave-update-for-week-ending-12122014/

darlag says

As for Gold, it has more upside

Possibly but not likely, the 1s who chased gold up to 1307.35 probably bought at the last high.
There will need to be so much more buying to swamp sellers. This environment doesn't really contain
enough of the needed elements I believe to get the job done as far breaking any new highs goes.
Perhaps retesting the last highs if enough buying can keep price up above 1225 over the next few weeks.
There is about $5 of support price is setting on currently with a continuation of reduced volume.
1200+/- is a much more supported area an likely a the time to test the ceiling of resistance out in over
the last couple of weeks. 1255-1300.

DXY weakening will be from consumer credit use which still is a soft market as of yet. DXY
below 92.5+/- is some what a leading indicator due to the ability to watch price performance
as it unfolds, below that I'm watching 90.5 then 88.70. Consumer credit level lags due to it being
reported quarterly however the level of penetration to the downside DXY makes is a good scale of
weight of consumer credit use.

Are waves and technical chart analysis similar?

Are there certain chart patterns and waves that nearly always indicate a crash or sharp rise?

If so, are the exceptions due to a clearly explainable event (eg natural disaster) or are there some unexplainable anomolies?

smaulgld says

Are waves and technical chart analysis similar?

Are there certain chart patterns and waves that nearly always indicate a crash or sharp rise?

If so, are the exceptions due to a clearly explainable event (eg natural disaster) or are there some unexplainable anomolies?

Really to me it boils down to no more than tools used to profile the market. Personally I use indication in any form seeking logical point
of higher probability of price reaction. Indicators do little for a persons if they lack understanding of applicable market theory and the
true factors effecting their market of choice, (underlying conditions). Once those areas of logic are found and some sort of confirmation
is achieved I trade and then make price prove if I'm right or wrong with the weight of the movement. There are patterns that denote
possible break-outs or downs however if your profiling skills are weak then you end up on the wrong side. All that waves do are point to a
logical point where price might react as do all systems. Due to the underlying conditions being out of site to 95%+ of traders they fail no
matter what the system they use.

Bias thought of "I know the market will" do this or that are generally the "unexplainable anomalies", at least to the guys on the wrong side.

Gold showed it's cards....
All plans intact, gold could not even test 1350 it's last pump and
reveals it's weight to the downside... expect a little
support and retest on its way down. however consider DXY
strength before you call your impression of a bottom.
Understand the potential of dollar strength. The lack of understanding
the real potential of dollar strength will keep a person on the wrong side
of the market. This environment has potential of lasting longer then most
grasp.

Tim Aurora says

Gold test $1165 today and the dollar is dropping too.

The dollar is very strong today.

As you can see as of yesterday not taking into account the euro weakness today, gold is still massively out performing the Euro.

and the Yen

rally let some people get out at $1300 at least.

What's a gold bug to do? Well, from this thread, it appears you tape a couple of bars to your body and go on vacation in Japan or Europe. Hmmm... I never thought of the "vacation fund" angle. Certainly an interesting (and illegal) way to avoid the collectible's tax.

Tim Aurora says

Gold test $1165 today and the dollar is dropping too.

Im not sure what you are looking at... The dollar is surging new high after new high....
http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/futures/DXY00

For The Last Made New High Percent From Made New Low Percent From
5-Day 5 times -0.03% 1 time +2.77%
1-Month 9 times -0.03% 4 times +4.15%
3-Month 20 times -0.03% 4 times +11.49%
6-Month 44 times -0.03% 1 time +16.58%
12-Month 71 times -0.03% 4 times +23.81%
Year to Date 14 times -0.03% 1 time +8.15%