patrick.net

Wait till rates go up.

Yep
There is probably a point where countries dont need to keep adding tbonds and need to diversify
But we need to keep selling em!

The Fed will buy. And also boomers (directly) once rates are worth it. How does Japan do it?

Japan is dumping US treasuries probably because they have to buy so many of their own securities.
boomers won't buy them unless forced to in their retirement accounts

we'll make it up by selling nukes to saudi arabia to counter iran....

Blurtman says

The Fed will buy. And also boomers (directly) once rates are worth it. How does Japan do it?

Japan isn't the world's reserve currency.

The dollar won't be forever either. The tbill market has been gamed for at least 10 years. Belgium isn't buying all those tbills out of their funds. None of the sales numbers for tbills can be believed. The dollar can lose it's place very quickly once momentum builds up. . The pieces are being put into place rapidly to make it happen. The worlds other large economies aren't going to put up with the US much longer

Right now the US has literally life or death say over every countries economy and every financial institution on the planet and abuses that power all the time. Look fincen's accusations of money laundering at BNP in Andorra which were purely political. A warning shot that if you deal with countries the US don't like the US will come after you. If fincen really wanted to go after money laundering (it doesn't) it could start in NY and Delaware where 90% of the money laundering in the world happens. Could you imagine the outrage in the US if china were to say that (for example) mellon bank in NY, which doesn't operate in china at all, was violating a chinese financial law that doesn't even exist in the US and shut them down? Fincen does it on a regular basis around the world.

With high speed communications and computers the idea of a reserve currency is rapidly becoming an anachronism anyway. In the future the actual units of trade (50 barrels of oil=10 tons of grain or whatever, futures markets operate sort of that way already) can be calculated and settled without a reserve (or any) currency at all. Basically barter on an international scale. The egyptions and sumerians managed to do it 3000 years ago with clay tablets for christ sakes. Only the bureaucratic inertia of governments is really stopping it. I'm amazed that the world hasn't at least made ounces of gold the reserve currency as an intermediate step to break free of the dollar.

bob2356 says

If fincen really wanted to go after money laundering (it doesn't) it could start in NY and Delaware where 90% of the money laundering in the world happens.

The Bank Paribas fines are another example- The French didnt go along with sanctions and Bank Paribas got hit http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/30/investing/bnp-paribas-sanctions-fine/index.html

bob2356 says

Basically barter on an international scale.

yes, the stock answer is barter is impractiable, not any more if you can digitize assets and exchage them that way

We ought to hire Elvira Nabiullina for the Federal Reserve. Jesus, did she smack the FUCK out of ruble speculators. They still can't sit down.

thunderlips11 says

We ought to hire Elvira Nabiullina for the Federal Reserve. Jesus, did she smack the FUCK out of ruble speculators. They still can't sit down.

Quite a turn around in the rouble

Jacking the interest rate from around 10% to 20% in 24 hours will do that :)

In London, she must be a curse word.

Did you know annual FOREX trades are 2500% larger than the entire World GDP?

smaulgld says

The Bank Paribas fines are another example- The French didnt go along with sanctions and Bank Paribas got hit http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/30/investing/bnp-paribas-sanctions-fine/index.html

That was mostly Benjamin Lawsky of NY's Department of Financial Services which is a state agency with almost unlimited power since they can pull a banks NY charter. Without a NY charter a bank is pretty much shut totally out of the international market. There is almost no way for any bank to defend themselves against DFS, they just have to settle or go out of business. Note that DFS is a NY state agency that is going after a french bank for dealing with sudan, iran, and cuba after the US put on sanctions. DFS got a quarter of the settlement 2.2 billion, any conflict of interest there? The arrogance is astounding.

bob2356 says

There is almost no way for any bank to defend themselves against DFS, they just have to settle or go out of business

And they wonder why every country joined the AIIB-it should be Asian Alternative Investment Bank

smaulgld says

And they wonder why every country joined the AIIB

Every country the US couldn't threaten out of it.

Not a problem. We can always print more $$$.

bob2356 says

The arrogance is astounding.

Cyrus Vance, Jr.? Yeah, the US financial apparatus is a very strong enforcement arm of US policy. Probably why no one is going to jail.

bob2356 says

Right now the US has literally life or death say over every countries economy and every financial institution on the planet and abuses that power all the time.

I don't see that abuse taking place. We don't impose sanctions on democracies, just on dictators and religious governments that are always stirring up trouble.
We need a policeman in this messed up world.

Strategist says

We don't impose sanctions on democracies,

Oh? Putin was elected, you may remember he wasn't President of Russia from 2008-2012. So is the Iranian President. So was Maduro of Venezuela.

Strategist says

We don't impose sanctions on democracies

Like France?

thunderlips11 says

Strategist says

We don't impose sanctions on democracies,

Oh? Putin was elected, you may remember he wasn't President of Russia from 2008-2012. So is the Iranian President. So was Maduro of Venezuela.

Having elections is not enough to make you a democracy. Saddam Hussein was elected too. Russia has no real term limits. Venezuela enforced a rule of decree when Chavez was still alive.

smaulgld says

Like France?

We disagree a lot with France, but that's about it.

Strategist says

We disagree a lot with France, but that's about it.

Just a $9 billion fine

smaulgld says

Strategist says

We disagree a lot with France, but that's about it.

Just a $9 billion fine

The fine was not imposed on the country of France, just on a privately held bank that happened to be French.
If you want to do business with us, please obey our rules.

Strategist says

just on a privately held bank that happened to be French.

BNP is not privately held. It's publicly traded and it's the third largest bank in the world. Why should the US dictate who they can do business with?

Strategist says

We don't impose sanctions on democracies

Lot's of countries around the world look at the US's bought and paid for by large corporations political system and shake their heads at the word democracy being used. People in glass houses should not throw stones.

Strategist says

If you want to do business with us, please obey our rules

Bullshit. The US is using the rules to enforce political policy in other countries, not to crack down on crime.

So when is the US going to crack down on money laundering in the US, which is estimated to be home of up to 90% of the worlds money laundering? If they are so concerned about the rules then why do chase, jjp morgan, citi, hsbc, etc. launder billions every year right under the noses of fincen with at best a handslap after something comes out in the press and can't be ignored? Wachovia got tagged moving 376 BILLION in mexican drug money and paid a whopping 160 million penalty. About 1% of annual profits. That really hurt. Let me forget to file fincen form 114 declaring I have 10k sitting in an overseas bank account and I'm looking at a 350k fine and 5 years in jail. That's just for failing to file the form.

The US is the best place in the world to launder money if you aren't a US citizen. Despite a lot of political posturing, the US government has zero interest in seeing all that cash coming into the country going somewhere else. Big banks pay for an awful lot of constitutionally protected free speech (aka campaign contributions) to make sure that continues to be true.

bob2356 says

Strategist says

just on a privately held bank that happened to be French.

BNP is not privately held. It's publicly traded and it's the third largest bank in the world. Why should the US dictate who they can do business with?

I meant non government owned.
When the US tries to prevent rogue regimes from acquiring nuclear arms, is that bad? We all know how greedy banks and corporations can be. They will sacrifice the safety of the planet just to make those big bonuses that come with sky high profits. If they don't get punished the sanctions will not work. The rule is simple. If you want to do business with the world's largest economy, you play by our rules.

bob2356 says

Bullshit. The US is using the rules to enforce political policy in other countries, not to crack down on crime.

That's fine with me. We don't want dictators, ISIS and NK dominating us.

bob2356 says

So when is the US going to crack down on money laundering in the US, which is estimated to be home of up to 90% of the worlds money laundering?

They already do. Besides, that's not an excuse to allow the likes of ISIS to carry on with their activities.

Strategist says:"Having elections is not enough to make you a democracy."
Especially in a country where bandwagon riding Reps & Dems continue to elect the same scum over & over again.

So this means we should probably sell now, since they will flood the market with them?

Strategist says

When the US tries to prevent rogue regimes from acquiring nuclear arms, is that bad?

Pakistan's government is the primary supplier of nuclear arms to rogue regimes. They are a US ally. How much has pakistan been punished or sanctioned? Get a grip.

Strategist says

bob2356 says

Bullshit. The US is using the rules to enforce political policy in other countries, not to crack down on crime.

That's fine with me. We don't want dictators, ISIS and NK dominating us.

How do you make the jump from money laundering to isis and nk dominating us? It's like asking what time is it and getting the answer purple. Conservatives do that a lot.

Strategist says

bob2356 says

So when is the US going to crack down on money laundering in the US, which is estimated to be home of up to 90% of the worlds money laundering?

They already do.

Oh yea. Like 1% of wachovia's profits for one year is a big deterrent.

"yes, the stock answer is barter is impractiable, not any more if you can digitize assets and exchage them that way"

That. Is a very interesting point that has the potential to turn centralized everything on it's ear.

The only real reason for centralized is to assure
validity, which can now be done peer to peer.

bob2356 says

The US is the best place in the world to launder money if you aren't a US citizen. Despite a lot of political posturing, the US government has zero interest in seeing all that cash coming into the country going somewhere else. Big banks pay for an awful lot of constitutionally protected free speech (aka campaign contributions) to make sure that continues to be true.

The TBTF's in partnership with the US government operate like a crime cartel. Imagine if Al Capone became head of the Justice Department as Hank Paulson became head of the Treasury Department.

Fines are related party transactions