Whoa, no more housing forum?

27 Nobody 2015 May 4, 4:22pm

OK, there was a bubble. And it popped, however the 1% has managed to slither their way out of it by simply squeezing more from the middle class. Most of them are idiots, and they have absolutely no idea what is going on. They look at the 1% and think that we are OK and good shape. If we are in better shape, then why are we, the middle class, disappearing? Every data is looking better for the 1% and bad for the rest of us.

This site was originally conceived to educate people. I have realized that there is no cure for stupidity. So most of the smart people gave up and comes here only sporadically.

28

Goran_K 2015 May 4, 4:55pm

"I have realized that there is no cure for stupidity."

haha

29

Goran_K 2015 May 4, 4:56pm

All the old guard are gone now. Patrick.net is no longer a bubble site, OCHousingNews is more of an investors site now, and the last one standing is DrHousingBubble.

30

Tenpoundbass 2015 May 4, 5:22pm

stillrenting says

They are certain it's going to pop - unsustainable.

We're past that now our whole economy and every sector is an unsustainable bubble.

Food - bubble
Energy - bubble
Rent - bubble
Stocks - bubble
Insurance premiums(all policies) - bubble
Health care(separate from insurance) - bubble
(makes the previous two a double whammy perfect storm bubble)
Education - bubble
Unemployment - pretend it does not exist and under report bubble
Automobiles - bubble

Unless the US dollar becomes as worthless as a Zimbabwean trillion dollar bill, will any price in our economy be sustainable in the long term, before a Max max dystopia revolution takes hold of not this country but the world.

31

Goran_K 2015 May 4, 5:27pm

Speaking of mad max, where the heck is ApocalypseF***? I need another reminder of how to eat face when SHTF.

32 stillrenting 2015 May 4, 5:42pm

Goran _K:
"All the old guard are gone now. Patrick.net is no longer a bubble site, OCHousingNews is more of an investors site now, and the last one standing is DrHousingBubble."

Of the original housing bubble sites, thehousingbubbleblog is still well read, as I mentioned; most posters there are adamant that the housing bubble will pop, though they're vague on when. I read it every once in a while, like this site. It's true, the topic has gotten boring; for quite a long time there's been no major indicators or encouragement on the madness stopping - ever. The hopeful are sitting in their own pew.

33 CDon 2015 May 4, 7:26pm

SFace says

It's obvious Patrick does not know the factors into buy/sell. He uses more in the software science, math science with hard logic. I view it more from a social and behavior science or applied. If you know the calculator, it's just an input bias and nothing more.

That's one of the more interesting aspects I learned about. To the extent this site was dominated by coders, they seem to live in a black and white world where shades of gray or an answer of "it depends" doesnt exist. Time and again, you would see them apply some rule of thumb as gospel as if what they read or learned will axiomatically apply everywhere, and anyone who disagreed with them or add a shade of grey to their world would get a surprisingly emotion laden or otherwise curious response.

Great example, back in early 2012 when Tiny Tina noticed why year 1 rental parity was an absurd notion, I waded in very cautiously as I expected the zealous advocates like Patrick to mount a vigorous defense to his thesis - and the core of his beliefs. Instead, his only defense:

I'm waiting for rental parity.

When I saw that, and nothing more, I was dumbstruck. Tiny Tina hit on this too when he/she said:

tiny tina says

I'm waiting for rental parity.

No offense, but do you have any reason to think it will ever exist in the area you plan on buying? Your short post with no justification proves a secondary point that some people are hoping for something that may not exist and may never have.

Again, you would think that 12+ years of waiting and renting would cause someone to reconsider their thesis altogether. Absent that, where was the nuance? Where was the thoughtful analysis? Where was the "shit, I didn't think of that - hmmm, yes maybe year 1 rental parity is too much to ask for in a "premium area" like SFBA". I realize this is the internet where no one is ever wrong about anything ever. Still, if the core of everything you believe was under attack, and you could not mount even the most feeble of attempts to defend it, why continue to tout it as if you wait long enough it will come true?

34 CDon 2015 May 4, 7:56pm

stillrenting says

Goran _K:

"All the old guard are gone now. Patrick.net is no longer a bubble site, OCHousingNews is more of an investors site now, and the last one standing is DrHousingBubble."

Of the original housing bubble sites, thehousingbubbleblog is still well read, as I mentioned; most posters there are adamant that the housing bubble will pop, though they're vague on when. I read it every once in a while, like this site. It's true, the topic has gotten boring; for quite a long time there's been no major indicators or encouragement on the madness stopping - ever. The hopeful are sitting in their own pew.

This is another thing I noticed. By my estimation, 90-95% of those who came to the bubble blogs came to learn, buy near the bottom then get on with life. These people constituted about 50% of the comments on sites like this one or the HBB.

As to the other 50% of the comments, a great deal of these came from the angry, disillusioned, disaffected or disturbed (mentally or otherwise) individuals for whom posting on the internet is life itself. Be it here, HBB, Zero Hedge, etc., and be the subject matter housing, economics, politics, race, gender, etc. - no matter the topic they pontificate with the same amount of certitude as the world's foremost expert. None of these people cares to learn. None of them ever care about arguing endlessly with no possible hope of resolution to the topic. None of them care about how stupid they may look. Don't know what you are talking about? Doesn't matter, just eat shit and keep posting!

I check this place probably an hour a week in between task at work. As such, It took me 3 years to rack up 500 comments, and I am only here now because I am stuck at work and cannot leave until my client finishes their portion of mediation in the other room. Were it not for that, there is no chance I would be here now at late night or weekends or otherwise free time - life is too short IMO.

At the same time, there are posters here, Ben Jones, or any other survivor blog, that have been around as long as me but out post me me by a ratio over 20:1. You can tell from the date stamps intervals between posts, etc. they are here 10+ hours a day, 5 days a week. For these people the plan was never to "buy and get on with life". For them, the plan was "never buy, post about it, and in so doing, live life".

35 bob2356 2015 May 5, 3:49am

PockyClipsNow says

I paid 900k,

Its going to sell for 1.6m (worst case 1.55m)

Thats how you get 700k. This percent increase is right in line with coastal CA case shiller appreciation for last 3 years.

and the zip code was?

36

Bigsby 2015 May 5, 9:22am

Your zip code isn't going to give away who you are.

37

Goran_K 2015 May 5, 9:31am

Yeah it was sad what happened to Roberto but he did kind of ask for it. He was actively belligerent with people instead of agreeing to disagree, then he posted his exact job title, the college he taught at, and his full name. That's asking for trouble on the internet. That being said, I generally liked Roberto, I hope he comes back under an alias.