patrick.net

just_passing_through says

Wouldn't it be cool to just walk from home across a park to a former strip mall and 'plug in' to your 'work environment'? I'm WAGing that will be the first implementation of a truly virtual internet acceptable to large employers (security, bandwidth, other requirements etc) followed by home versions.

They used to have those 20 years ago already, they were called Sun-Rays. But the powerful lobby of tech-company-middle-men-managers successfully reversed the course on telecommute, otherwise the could not schedule any face-to-face meetings anymore and would have been out of business and companies would have discovered that they could get better results with half the management.

Dan8267 says

The only time management is interested in telecommuting workers is when they are slave labor from undeveloped nations.

Stop complaining Dan, you have a job. And you live in a more affordable state.

SFace says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Where people go wrong is assuming that human behavior can be predicted on a spread sheet.


I don't think the elites are stampeding their ill gotten gains and college age kids out of Communist China because of a Spread Sheet Calculation.

Housing is more social science, not calculators. Been saying that since 2009.

Mostly, most don't understand location, location, location is in 2016 will be location X5 in 2026. The calculators have a basic flaw that don't understand people pay $$ for value and they sure will be a lot more.

There is an emotional value in owning your own home. It makes you feel safe and secure. How many wives are willing to put up with renting for ever?

just_passing_through says

Hey Pat - don't let anyone's complaining get you down. This site has been a great service to me and as some others have said, "it's all based on one's personal situation."

I've learned a lot from you and others on this site and so if you do move I hope this site sticks around. I'm a native of the bay area who's lived other places and am glad I moved in 2012 before the recent run up in NorCal. It sucks here in San Diego though. Nobody reading this move here please!

Whoops too late. We already purchased a home in North San Diego. Beautiful weather, great beaches, proximity to OC, and lower home prices. I guess liking a place all depends on the lifestyle you like to lead.

Strategist says

How many wives are willing to put up with renting for ever?

that's a very interesting statement.

so you're saying men should buy a house at any cost, to please their wives?

Ironman says

Sometimes

but not always.

there is a certain price for a house, beyond which you should not go, because it will cause more stress on your marriage, not less.

Strategist says

Whoops too late. We already purchased a home in North San Diego. Beautiful weather, great beaches, proximity to OC, and lower home prices. I guess liking a place all depends on the lifestyle you like to lead.

Oh yeah? Well I hope you don't get caught up in any flash floods tomorrow or Monday. It's also much easier to get a sun burn here. Anyone looking to leave the SFBA should move North!

Ironman says

Very true... The sooner you move away from the crazy prices in the Bay Area, the better you (and her) will be.

Easier said than done. My experience with bay area women is that most of them think there's no better place to be: "I'm living the dweem!"

Maybe 80K credit card debt, 35K school loan debt (which they don't consider debt), renting... Decent salary but living way beyond their means from a long term perspective.

I call them rescue women. Fun to play with but not to own. Hard to find lookers though. The SFBA is full of average to ugly looking women. The women in SoCal are much much hotter and also less educated - but I've found that they have more common sense, much less debt and are less likely to get bent out of shape over PC issues.

If anyone has seen the movie Carnage, the character Jodie Foster plays is a pretty typical SFBA type even though it's an East Coast flick.

Christoph Waltz 01:09:22 Truth is, nobody here cares. Except maybe Penelope.
Christoph Waltz 01:09:25 One must acknowledge her integrity.

Jodie Foster 01:09:27 I don't need your acknowledgment! I don't need your acknowledgment!

Kate Winslet 01:09:31 But I do care. I really do care.

Christoph Waltz 01:09:34 Yes Doodle we care in a hysterical way,
Christoph Waltz 01:09:37 Not like heroic figures of a social movement.

Christoph Waltz 01:09:41 I saw your friend Jane Fonda on TV the other day.
Christoph Waltz 01:09:44 Made me want to run out and buy a Ku Klux Klan poster.

Jodie Foster 01:09:48 My friend Jane Fonda? What the hell does that mean?

Christoph Waltz 01:09:53 You're the same breed. You're the same kind of involved, problem-solver woman.
Christoph Waltz 01:09:58 Those are not the women we like.
Christoph Waltz 01:10:01 The women we like are sensual, crazy, shot full of hormones.
Christoph Waltz 01:10:05 The gatekeepers of the world, the ones who want to show off how perceptive they are,
Christoph Waltz 01:10:08 Huge turnoff.
Christoph Waltz 01:10:11 Even poor Michael, your own husband is turned off..

John C. Reilly 01:10:15 Don't you speak for me.

Jodie Foster 01:10:16 We don't give a shit about what women you like!
Jodie Foster 01:10:19 Where do you get off spouting these opinions?
Jodie Foster 01:10:22 You're one man whose opinions we don't give a shit about!

Christoph Waltz 01:10:25 She is screaming.
Christoph Waltz 01:10:27 A quartermaster on a slave ship.

Jodie Foster 01:10:31 What about her? She doesn't scream? She didn't just scream that your little asshole was right to beat up ours?

Kate Winslet 01:10:37 He was right!
Kate Winslet 01:10:40 At least our kid isn't a little wimpy-ass faggot!

Jodie Foster 01:10:42 Yours is a fucking snitch!

Kate Winslet 01:10:46 Let's go Alan, why are we still in this house?

Ironman says

It took me decades to figure that out....

That's because you're a slow learner. If Patrick listened to you, that'd make two of you. What say you @Patrick? :>)

SFace says

justme says

The mistake we made was to underestimate the amount of financial depravity AND crony capitalism that Congress and the Federal Reserve would be willing to engage in to re-inflate asset prices.

This is the fed. I learned long ago (college econ/greenspan days) the country will choose inflation over deflation 100 out of 100 times. This will never change.

But note that I have never in my life met a Real Estate agent or property owner that made that statement: "yes, property prices are insanely high but they will never permanently go down, because the Federal Reserve will not allow it, barring a full-scale revolution by voters and taxpayers to bring down the Federal Reserve and the banking system".

What I have heard a hundred times over is "housing prices never go down", or "this is an attractive area", or "the weather is so good here", or "foreign buyers", or "silicon valley will never go down because we will forever be the hub of innovation" (just ask Detroit about that last one, BTW).

You may be the only exception, SFace. BTW, what was the first date you were on record at patnet making the quoted statement or equivalent?

just_passing_through says

Maybe 80K credit card debt

jesus, who has 80K in credit card debt? i keep it at zero. credit card interest rates are insane.

justme says

"silicon valley will never go down because we will forever be the hub of innovation" (just ask Detroit about that last one, BTW).

or japan. remember when they ruled the world and the grounds of the imperial palace in tokyo were worth more than all of california's land?
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/japans-palace-grounds-once-more-valuable-than-california/

hey, they're not making any more land in tokyo, but that fact didn't help them none!

mell says

They used to have those 20 years ago already, they were called Sun-Rays. But the powerful lobby of tech-company-middle-men-managers successfully reversed the course on telecommute

Wasn't and still isn't ready for prime-time yet. It'll probably advance via porn and once it works well middle-managers won't be able to stop it.

rando says

jesus, who has 80K in credit card debt? i keep it at zero. credit card interest rates are insane.

Usually it's spread across cards... One of the hottest women I dated there told me she had no debt. Then, I was on her couch one afternoon when she got served! She owed over 5K on a credit card she'd quit paying on when the initial debt was less than 500.

I once had 20K spread across cards when I was young due to a series of emergencies, some of which were self inflicted. Paid that off as fast as I could and have been debt free every since.

The only women I met there that had their shit together en masse were South American and Eastern European.

just_passing_through says

The only women I met there that had their shit together en masse were South American and Eastern European.

jewish women also tend to know exactly how the system works and so they don't get trapped by debt. i suppose their ancestors are generally from eastern europe to begin with.

rando says

they're not making any more land in tokyo, but that fact didn't help them none!

Tokyo is a special case. The yen went from 250 to 125 1985-1988. This doubled the buying power of the Japanese economy.

Previously under-valued real estate became a speculative vehicle, very similar to our recent bubble.

What killed Japan was they moved from a inflationary regime of 1960-1980 to the deflationary regime of 1992-2013:

Japanese bought into the bubble in the 80s expecting continued 5-10% appreciation, which would bail out their gamble just as people bought in the 60s and 70s got bailed out by 5-10% inflation.

But the inflation disappeared, strangely.

Wonder if we'll follow.

Bellingham Bill says

Tokyo is a special case. The yen went from 250 to 125 1985-1988. This doubled the buying power of the Japanese economy.

Previously under-valued real estate became a speculative vehicle, very similar to our recent bubble.

i don't see the connection between the yen and the value of japanese real estate. foreigners were not buying in japan afaik.

rando says

hey, they're not making any more land in tokyo, but that fact didn't help them none!

Demand did not go up either:
1. Population is on the decline.
2. Foreigners don't bother to buy there.
California, Florida, and the the rest of the country have an increasing population. Foreigners love the US, trust the US, and are willing to buy property here.

Strategist says

Dan8267 says

The only time management is interested in telecommuting workers is when they are slave labor from undeveloped nations.

Stop complaining Dan, you have a job. And you live in a more affordable state.

It is the duty of all people to oppose bad policies and systems regardless of whether or not they are personally affected. This is the difference between liberals and conservatives. Liberals think of all people, not just themselves.

rando says

Damn, it took 20 years though. What a waste of time and money for an entire generation.

And people wonder why their economy is bad. Ransacking an entire generation's income prevents that generation from consuming which in turn causes lower productivity, lower wages, and lower consumption. That's the price to pay for short-term greed and propping up the price of ANY asset especially a necessity.

Dan8267 says

Damn, it took 20 years though.

i don't think they're done. maybe it's going to be another 20 years down.

their demographics suck.

rando says

their demographics suck

People always say this, but I think that flat or slowly declining population is not so bad in the long term. Especially when the ethnic composition remains constant. All countries will eventually have to face this "problem." Japan, being one of the first to deal with this issue, may find itself with a competitive edge at some point.

Also, what will happen when due to advances in bio engineering the human life expectancy increases n-fold? Birth rate restrictions or population explosion.

Dan8267 says

And people wonder why their economy is bad

not too bad actually

and think how much worse our unemployment would be if we had a $100B/yr defense expense not $600B . . .

we spend $1800 per capita on defense, they spend $300 . . .

what made the bubble harsh was that "jingle mail" isn't possible in Japan. You stamp your name on the contract, you owe the money.

and during the bubble they had intergenerational loans, too.

rando says

Dan8267 says

Damn, it took 20 years though.

i don't think they're done. maybe it's going to be another 20 years down.

With the low birth rates and the anti-sex attitude among both young men and women, I suspect you are correct. A declining population causes lower housing prices.

However, that's a good thing. Japan was way overcrowded.

Bellingham Bill says

not too bad actually

and think how much worse our unemployment would be if we had a $100B/yr defense expense not $600B

I was talking about Japan, but I disagree that military spending is good for the economy. It's wasteful and mostly non-productive and counter-productive. That money could be spent providing education for all, creating far greater benefits.

Dan8267 says

That money could be spent providing education for all, creating far greater benefits.

Sure, but if we cut $500B/yr out of the DOD, much of the US would get a lot, lot worse. That's around 10 million jobs straight away.

Then remove those 10 million jobs from local economies and see how many other jobs are then lost.

Then run the next round further out.

Our entire economy would nosedive like 1929-33.

Japan actually substitutes a rather aggressive public works program for defense, so they have a nicer place to live than us, mostly.

Dan8267 says

Damn, it took 20 years though. What a waste of time and money for an entire generation.

And people wonder why their economy is bad. Ransacking an entire generation's income prevents that generation from consuming which in turn causes lower productivity,

As Patrick said, Japan's demographics suck, but has anyone argued yet that the biggest cause of the Japan demographic baby-bust was their immensely stupid housing bubble?

I think that may be the long-term effect in the US as well. Except we are not an island with strict border controls.

Dan8267 says

With the low birth rates and the anti-sex attitude among both young men and women, I suspect you are correct. A declining population causes lower housing prices.

I highly doubt there is an anti-sex attitude among men. You know better than that, Dan. The problem is that Japanese young women have completely priced themselves out of the market.

In fact, the same thing is happening in the US and all Western countries. Come to think of it, I think it would be descriptive to say there is a chick-bubble. A bubble with insane prices and very low sales volume. And low inventory. Nothing on the market. You read it here first!

justme says

I think it would be descriptive to say there is a chick-bubble. A bubble with insane prices and very low sales volume. And low inventory. Nothing on the market.

LOL! That's exactly right - nothing new and unused is available.

But they think you should pay new prices for used and road-worn! It's like getting a "new" car and finding other people's hair and boogers on the floor because they've been letting random guy friends drive it whenever. But feminism tells women they should act like men, and so they do. That repulses men, and the women wonder why, never questioning the feminist bullshit which is actually fatal for their own marriage prospects and happiness.

Female chastity is a traditional virtue for a reason.

Bellingham Bill says

Sure, but if we cut $500B/yr out of the DOD, much of the US would get a lot, lot worse. That's around 10 million jobs straight away.

Then remove those 10 million jobs from local economies and see how many other jobs are then lost.

The same could be said about cutting welfare and unemployment benefits.

Furthermore, spending that $500B/yr to hire teachers instead of soldiers would be far better for the economy. At least with education you get better workers and all the benefits you are claiming from warfare spending without any of the counter-productive, economy-destroying effects of warfare.

So if you're going to have the government run a massive jobs program, it's should be jobs that do useful work like increasing the skills of the next generation or repairing and upgrading our infrastructure. Hell, it would be better if instead of spending $500B/yr on war, we spent that money tearing down ghettos and replacing them with good housing that we give to the poor. Again, all the benefits of a jobs program plus real economic productivity and none of the negatives of warfare.

^yup, not disagreeing with you, just saying the $500B *more* than we spend vs. Japan is how we keep our economy going for the surplus people, partially.

It's part of Sander's program to divert this spending into more wealth-accreting investments I suppose.

And that's what we should be doing, like you said.

If you could take all the money -- not just money but labor and resources -- we incinerated in the mideast since 2001 we'd have a fucking nordic utopia here, 15 years on.
We're talking trillions and trillions, and all the labor and capital that buys.

justme says

I highly doubt there is an anti-sex attitude among men. You know better than that, Dan.

I look at evidence, not preconceived notions, to determine the truth. Like it or not, the evidence counters what you believe.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/20/young-people-japan-stopped-having-sex

A survey in 2011 found that 61% of unmarried men and 49% of women aged 18-34 were not in any kind of romantic relationship, a rise of almost 10% from five years earlier. Another study found that a third of people under 30 had never dated at all.

Aoyama cites one man in his early 30s, a virgin, who can't get sexually aroused unless he watches female robots on a game similar to Power Rangers.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/06/22/national/social-issues/nearly-40-of-single-japanese-not-interested-in-romance-survey/#.Vtxg1-ZNh4o

39.1 percent of women and 36.2 percent of men said they do not want a romantic partner.

http://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-japanese-people-arent-having-sex-2015-7

According to a 2011 report from Japan's population center cited by Max Fisher at The Washington Post:

• 27% of men and 23% of women aren't interested in a romantic relationship

• From ages 18 to 34, 61% of men and 49% of women aren't involved in a relationship

• From ages 18 to 34, 36% of men and 39% of women have never had sex

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jun/23/aziz-ansari/startling-stat-checks-out-46-percent-young-women-j/

Ansari brings up the figure about young women not being into sex in his book with a host of other scary statistics, writing, "In 2013 a whopping 45 percent of women aged 16 to 24 ‘were not interested in or despised sexual contact,’ and more than a quarter of men felt the same way."

A quarter of young men "not interested in or despising sexual contact" is indicative of something seriously fucked up.

Bellingham Bill says

^yup, not disagreeing with you, just saying the $500B *more* than we spend vs. Japan is how we keep our economy going for the surplus people, partially.

It's the worst possible way to "keep the economy going" and is no justification given the enormous number of better alternatives. Even paying criminals to commit crimes and cops to catch them would be less destructive.

Dan8267 says

justme says

I highly doubt there is an anti-sex attitude among men. You know better than that, Dan.

I look at evidence, not preconceived notions, to determine the truth. Like it or not, the evidence counters what you believe.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/20/young-people-japan-stopped-having-sex

Dan, I have already seen tons of articles like the ones you linked to. I should have mentioned that in my comment. I thought everyone knew that your links represent the the standard narrative about sex in Japan. My view is that the standard narrative in the mainstream media (MSM) often is very far from the truth, and that this is a case in point. Sorry I made you waste time on digging up links.

>>• 27% of men and 23% of women aren't interested in a romantic relationship

This just means that the gap between buyer and seller, so to speak, is too high. It is not that they are not interested.

justme says

This just means that the gap between buyer and seller, so to speak, is too high. It is not that they are not interested.

Dan8267 says

Aoyama cites one man in his early 30s, a virgin, who can't get sexually aroused unless he watches female robots on a game similar to Power Rangers.

There's something fucked up going on.

Dan8267 says

A quarter of young men "not interested in or despising sexual contact" is indicative of something seriously fucked up.

They call it 'herbivore boys'

https://discoverjapannow.wordpress.com/2013/11/04/who-are-japans-grass-eaters/

justme says

The problem is that Japanese young women have completely priced themselves out of the market.

Got any links expressing this?

Dan8267 says

It's wasteful and mostly non-productive and counter-productive. That money could be spent providing education for all, creating far greater benefits.

We still live in a bad bad world. If it wasn't for defense, we would be speaking Arabic.

The Germans couldn't get 2 dry boots on our soil after declaring war on us.

The camel jockeys would have a markedly harder time crossing the Atlantic.

Unless by "we" you mean Israelis or something.

Bellingham Bill says

They call it 'herbivore boys'

https://discoverjapannow.wordpress.com/2013/11/04/who-are-japans-grass-eaters/

Your link seems to contradict your comment. "Masahiro Morioka is an university professor who came up with the term, soushokukei danshi, and made it popular. Morioka defined the term as the following: “Grass eating men are those with gentle hearts. They are neither tied to the traditional sense of masculinity or greedy for love. They are not good with hurting people or being hurt by others.”
***
Do some of them refuse to date, have sex, or marry? Maybe, but they’re not the majority.
***
Grass eaters exist in Japan, but the definition of the word is much broader than what’s been reported in the media and those who are featured in it are extreme examples."

My favorite part is where it quotes Einstein saying that “information is not knowledge.” You seem to stare into the tea leaves of FRED data, but emerge mainly with confirmation of what you wanted to see there.

Bellingham Bill says

The Germans couldn't get....

"The largest invasion of American soil during World War II came in the form of eight Nazi saboteurs sent to the United States on a doomed mission known as Operation Pastorius. The men—all naturalized American citizens who were living in Germany when the conflict began—were tasked with sabotaging the war effort and demoralizing the civilian population through acts of terrorism. In June 1942, U-boats secretly dropped the two four-man crews on the coast of Amagansett, New York, and Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Each team carried up to $84,000 in cash and enough explosives to wage a long campaign of sabotage."

Strategist says

We still live in a bad bad world. If it wasn't for defense, we would be speaking Arabic.

If it weren't for the military industrial complex, there wouldn't have been terrorist attacks on Americans. Learn you history. Start by Googling Eisenhower study military oil regimes.