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MisterLefty says

Not a scientific survey by any means, but I receive Redfin updates on properties on the market in areas of interest, and at least by that criteria, the number of homes in San Diego, Encinitas in particular, that they have been sending me has increased dramatically over the last few months. It appears that folks are bailing, but that the homes are staying on the market longer.

Not scientific on its own, but more articles are making similar observations. What people miss is that growing inventory. That is what causes a crash when the sales are forced somehow. Until then we just merrily report rising median home prices because that is only measuring what actually is selling. That measure doesn't measure if those sales are actually bargains and my observation is that in general the houses that are selling are discounted expensive homes and a few overpriced starter homes.

Malcolm says

So what I considered a normal market when I started investing is a lot different now... How can anyone say they aren't being overbought?

The biggest new variable is government bailouts, by whatever name. Fed ZIRP, the threat of NIRP, loan modifications at the federal and state levels: a vast array of extremely powerful interests use government policy to prop up RE prices. Even when bankers were caught committing RICO violations, forging signatures on documents, they were allowed to settle for loan modifications that propped up RE prices. What happened once might happen again: RE prices have been dramatically manipulated, and remain so. The word "overbought" applies to markets, but IDK to what extent RE is even a market at this point.

Malcolm says

1995 starter home $110K rents for $1,000/mo
2005 starter home $450K renting for $1,200/mo
2018 starter home $550K renting for $2,000/mo

The 1995 starter home would be $300,000, with rent at $1,200
The 2015 starter home $550,000 would rent for $2500 today.

Malcolm says

Hi there, I just noticed this. I don't check in very often. Yes, I am extremely happen that I sold when I did. In my opinion I called the top within months.

You sold in October 2017, and we have been hitting new highs ever since. The San Diego County median hit another record high at $579,750 last month.
So when and where is the top you called?

Strategist says

You sold in October 2017, and we have been hitting new highs ever since. The San Diego County median hit another record high at $579,750 last month.
So when and where is the top you called?

I haven't seen any sales in my area that make me question my decision. I did extremely well and wouldn't have a problem if someone after me made a little money. Time will tell. All I know is that more than one article and news-report have said people are not getting what they did a year ago.

Hey, I just checked.The average rent for a 2 bedroom apartment in San Diego County is $2,341. A 3 bedroom house would obviously rent for a lot more.
Where the hell do you get your $2,000 monthly rent for a median priced 3 bedroom house?

https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-san-diego-rent-trends/
As of August 2018, average rent for an apartment in San Diego, CA is $2177 which is a 2.94% increase from last year when the average rent was $2113 , and a 0.83% decrease from last month when the average rent was $2195.

One bedroom apartments in San Diego rent for $1920 a month on average (a 6.25% increase from last year) and two bedroom apartment rents average $2341 (a 3.5% increase from last year).

Strategist says

Hey, I just checked.The average rent for a 2 bedroom apartment in San Diego County is $2,341. A 3 bedroom house would obviously rent for a lot more.
Where the hell do you get your $2,000 monthly rent for a median priced 3 bedroom house?

North County.

Strategist says

The 1995 starter home would be $300,000, with rent at $1,200
The 2015 starter home $550,000 would rent for $2500 today.

Factually wrong. My first house was in the city limits near to San Diego State University and was a real case example. Yes, downtown by the waterfront would have your figures.

Malcolm says

Strategist says

You sold in October 2017, and we have been hitting new highs ever since. The San Diego County median hit another record high at $579,750 last month.
So when and where is the top you called?

I haven't seen any sales in my area that make me question my decision. I did extremely well and wouldn't have a problem if someone after me made a little money. Time will tell. All I know is that more than one article and news-report have said people are not getting what they did a year ago.

$579,750 Is New Milestone as San Diego Home Prices Continue ...
https://timesofsandiego.com › Business
Aug 30, 2018 - The median price of a home in San Diego County rose by 8 percent in July, compared with the same month a year earlier, a real estate information service announced Thursday. According to CoreLogic, the median price of a San Diego County home was $579,750 last month, up from $537,000 in July 2017.

Malcolm says

Hey, I just checked.The average rent for a 2 bedroom apartment in San Diego County is $2,341. A 3 bedroom house would obviously rent for a lot more.
Where the hell do you get your $2,000 monthly rent for a median priced 3 bedroom house?

https://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/apa/d/3-beds-2-baths-1476-sqft-home/6694586834.html

First, I didn't say median house, I said starter homes. I don't deal in nicer homes as an investment property.
2nd, San Diego has the widest range of prices anywhere that I have ever seen. We have some of the priciest houses and nearby we have some real dumpy areas. Be careful about the averages.
3rd. My example even surprised me, because it is actually in the city limits in a pretty decent area.

It is a great area and there will always be some eye boggling numbers.

https://www.10news.com/lifestyle/del-mar-home-sells-for-more-than-21-million-in-san-diego-housing-milestone

Malcolm says

First, I didn't say median house, I said starter homes. I don't deal in nicer homes as an investment property.

Malcolm says

2018 starter home $550K renting for $2,000/mo

$550K is pretty close to the median $579,750.
You keep giving very subjective and anecdotal examples. The real data shows something quite different.

Strategist says

You keep giving very subjective and anecdotal examples. The real data shows something quite different.

Subjective? There is a Craigslist ad right there for you. Also, be careful of the median stats. You are factually wrong because I am talking about single family homes. This article explains the numbers. Note they are saying there is a 20% increase in inventory. Also note the year over year and prior month declines in sales.
https://www.10news.com/news/making-it-in-san-diego/san-diego-home-sales-show-decline-in-august

Just one article about discounting. That is usually unheard of when San Diego is a seller's market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/16/housing-tipping-back-to-a-buyers-market-as-sellers-cut-prices.html

I can assure you in the last month I have seen at least three articles and two news stories about sellers not being able to get what their house was worth last year.

Here is the actual example.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/3410-Page-St,-San-Diego_rb/?fromHomePage=true&shouldFireSellPageImplicitClaimGA=false&fromHomePageTab=buy

There is no way in hell that it goes for $2,400/mo. Not with any stability, but the value is even a small surprise for me. I planted that palm tree in 1997. It was a sapling in a 5 gallon pot.

Malcolm says

Here is the actual example.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/3410-Page-St,-San-Diego_rb/?fromHomePage=true&shouldFireSellPageImplicitClaimGA=false&fromHomePageTab=buy

There is no way in hell that it goes for $2,400/mo. Not with any stability, but the value is even a small surprise for me. I planted that palm tree in 1997. It was a sapling in a 5 gallon pot.

Looks like at least half if tge house consists of later additions. I wonder if it is up to the code and has all the permits.

DASKAA says

Looks like at least half if tge house consists of later additions. I wonder if it is up to the code and has all the permits.

Yes, the county record is correct about the footage. Good call though, a lot of houses there have illegal garage conversions. That house was originally a cookie cutter house built for veterans in the 50s. I bought another one down the road with the same floor plan but not on a slab foundation. If you are curious, it is not actually a four bedroom. What they did was to add a nice master bed/bath and an extra room on the back. One of the original bedrooms was made into a nice family room with a fireplace. Even though it retained its closet, it technically isn't a bedroom because you go through it to get to the other rooms. It also led to an added enclosed patio. It was all done quite tastefully, but it is one of those fuzzy math problems where adding two bedrooms to two bedrooms equals 3 bedrooms and a den.

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