patrick.net

mell says

Who's your daddy who called it?

Me?
On Friday I posted that we will see 1000+ point losses on Monday. I think it was in the same post where I implored all to get the easy Eagles money (+4.5/+170). Glorious

This is only back to '78, but outside the dotcom bubble I don't see another uptrend that's been as vertical as the one post 2008. That should tell everyone this is not a recent bubble, and will blow long and loud when it finally deflates.

TwoScoopsPlissken says

I'm in ARLP too, for the dividend, and eventually gas/oil will go back up, especially if MAGA continues to go from strength to strength.

I'm more interested in industrial uses of Hemp.

Hard to get into that rn, because of Americas Failed Loser Prohibition that the Republicans not only are unwilling to repeal, they’re unwilling to address. Here’s a hint: Canada, where Freedom, Liberty, jobs and the economy are still valued.

Not to mention, as global policy continues to shift in other, less shitty countries, eventually Hemp will be another commodity and it will be grown en masse in the most favorable climates.

I think we’re still friends here at Patnet if that’s still a thing. If you want to share any notes, shoot me an email. I know you’re into Florida, they’re approaching 80k medical cannabis applicants, with over 50k already approved to have their cards. If only Trumps admin would get their shit together, they will fly

NuttBoxer says

This is only back to '78, but outside the dotcom bubble I don't see another uptrend that's been as vertical as the one post 2008. That should tell everyone this is not a recent bubble, and will blow long and loud when it finally deflates.

You have to factor in inflation, which is routinely fudged by the gov, if you count essential goods only inflation has been anywhere from 5%-10%. Compound that and the market has not risen that dramatically. It's the same with house prices if the gov/Fed wouldn't have intervened and bought all the MBS you'd have seen a real crash/correction lasting much longer, but with organic rebound. So in nominal terms I can see a correction to 20K maybe, a crash would be 15K or so but then valuations would become extremely cheap again in nominal terms because of inflation. But there's a good chance we'll see 30K.

errc says

TwoScoopsPlissken says

I'm in ARLP too, for the dividend, and eventually gas/oil will go back up, especially if MAGA continues to go from strength to strength.

I'm more interested in industrial uses of Hemp.

Hard to get into that rn, because of Americas Failed Loser Prohibition that the Republicans not only are unwilling to repeal, they’re unwilling to address. Here’s a hint: Canada, where Freedom, Liberty, jobs and the economy are still valued.

Not to mention, as global policy continues to shift in other, less shitty countries, eventually Hemp will be another commodity and it will be grown en masse in the most favorable climates.

I think we’re still friends here at Patnet if that’s still a thing. If you want to share any notes, shoot me an email. I know you’re into Florida, they’re approaching 80k medical cannabis applicants, with over 50k already approved to have their car...

I'd be careful when something is legalized and taken on bu the big boys it will sooner or later be commoditized and margins will become pretty thin. Plenty of competitors out there, like with any other sector by know you have to find the best, can't just buy any MJ cos. Also many scams tasking advantage of the hype. Probably best to stay with bigger ones with a good earnings record.

mell says

errc says

TwoScoopsPlissken says

I'm in ARLP too, for the dividend, and eventually gas/oil will go back up, especially if MAGA continues to go from strength to strength.

I'm more interested in industrial uses of Hemp.

Hard to get into that rn, because of Americas Failed Loser Prohibition that the Republicans not only are unwilling to repeal, they’re unwilling to address. Here’s a hint: Canada, where Freedom, Liberty, jobs and the economy are still valued.

Not to mention, as global policy continues to shift in other, less shitty countries, eventually Hemp will be another commodity and it will be grown en masse in the most favorable climates.

I think we’re still friends here at Patnet if that’s still a thing. If you want to share any notes, shoot me an email. I know you’re into Florida, they’re approachin...

That’s usually sound advice, however it’s tough to apply to this sector. Which tickers are you following/investing in this sector?

Applying your advice, can you illustrate how that leads you to the good buys here?

errc says

mell says

errc says

TwoScoopsPlissken says

I'm in ARLP too, for the dividend, and eventually gas/oil will go back up, especially if MAGA continues to go from strength to strength.

I'm more interested in industrial uses of Hemp.

Hard to get into that rn, because of Americas Failed Loser Prohibition that the Republicans not only are unwilling to repeal, they’re unwilling to address. Here’s a hint: Canada, where Freedom, Liberty, jobs and the economy are still valued.

Not to mention, as global policy continues to shift in other, less shitty countries, eventually Hemp will be another commodity and it will be grown en masse in the most favorable climates.

I think we’re still friends here at Patnet if that’s still a thing. If you want to...

I don't know anything about Cannabis stocks. I'd probably look at earnings growth, margins and projected path to profitability if not already profitable. I think Canada is a good decision since they are further and don't have the uncertainty in the US about legalization. Ironically I stay away from Canadian biotechs, seen to many scams, but if I bought a Cannabis stock I'd probably go with Canada as well. I like those that are still small but have an easily projectable path to profitability within 1-3 years where only something major could derail them. A few of my friends are quite invested in Canadian Cannabis stocks.

I don't know anything about Cannabis stocks

———————

My bad, thought i saw you post recently that they were a big bubble. Figured you had some knowledge that led you to that opinion.

As far as earnings goes, good luck using that as ypur guide. Most of these companies don’t have much history of earnings to use as determinants, because Cannabis is still illegal, even in Canada. So it’s impossible to be Conservative and go after safe plays right now in this industry. High risk means high reward, and I’ve always had a healthy fear of recommending any of my companies. Not everyone has my appetite for risk, so unless they are ok with knowing that I’m a gambler at heart, and that these tickers carry enormous risks, I won’t recommend that anyone play this industry like this. Most of my tickers have been 3x/4x/6x gains, and some of them have lost 30+% in the last few weeks. So it’s not for the faint of heart.

Quigley says

This is a gimmick perpetrated by traders who want a nice drop and a chance to buy stocks cheaply so they can make a mint on the rebound when people settle down and buy again. Betting a lot of traders will be buying tomorrow or the next day, hoping to reap a windfall on the market bobble.
Looks like a good time to take the safety money out of bonds and toss it into blue chips.

Looks like i was right again.
Me and @cboetrader

Just a bobble.

Another big gain today:

TwoScoopsPlissken says

Another big gain today:

DJIA is up 0.44%, but NASDAQ is down 0.56%. What up with that?

Apple paying out a big dividend?

justme says

TwoScoopsPlissken says

Another big gain today:

DJIA is up 0.44%, but NASDAQ is down 0.56%. What up with that?

It's risk-off. When volatility and big down days increase, investors flock to big bellwethers outside of the hype sectors.

Most likely outcome from here W bottom that will play over several weeks.

At spikes of volatility, I'm selling Mar 29 calls converting my June calls into calendar spreads. Then buying them back when IV goes down (like today).

FP

mell says

You have to factor in inflation, which is routinely fudged by the gov, if you count essential goods only inflation has been anywhere from 5%-10%. Compound that and the market has not risen that dramatically.

So then it sounds like you're saying inflation has risen dramatically. Either way I still see the same outcome, though I don't think we'll drop to Venezuela like levels for a few more years. I'd say crash this year to 10,000.

TwoScoopsPlissken says

Another big gain today:

Seriously?

NuttBoxer says

mell says

You have to factor in inflation, which is routinely fudged by the gov, if you count essential goods only inflation has been anywhere from 5%-10%. Compound that and the market has not risen that dramatically.

So then it sounds like you're saying inflation has risen dramatically. Either way I still see the same outcome, though I don't think we'll drop to Venezuela like levels for a few more years. I'd say crash this year to 10,000.

Wow, I can see no less than 15K and even that would surprise me. Wrt to inflation, just look at healthcare, housing, tuition, and now commodities may make a comeback. We'll see. Are you willing to short (some of) the market here?

mell says

Wow, I can see no less than 15K and even that would surprise me.

In '08 it was roughly 50% right? Using that same measurement, and subscribing to Rothbard's theory of each boom/bust cycle being more spectacular than the last, until manipulation is removed from the system, I think 10,000 is conservative.

mell says

Are you willing to short (some of) the market here?

I'd short Apple tomorrow if you can guarantee me that regulators won't ban short sales when the market plummets.

NuttBoxer says

mell says

Wow, I can see no less than 15K and even that would surprise me.

In '08 it was roughly 50% right? Using that same measurement, and subscribing to Rothbard's theory of each boom/bust cycle being more spectacular than the last, until manipulation is removed from the system, I think 10,000 is conservative.

mell says

Are you willing to short (some of) the market here?

I'd short Apple tomorrow if you can guarantee me that regulators won't ban short sales when the market plummets.

Yeah, I'd be careful with those. Best is IMO to wait until there is a real economic decline (job losses, low to negative output) and then short a housing ETF by going long SRS. There are no good short candidates ATM. Maybe TSLA, AMZN, APPL, CMG.

TwoScoopsPlissken says

Another big gain today:

,93% is a big gain? I really want some of what you smoke.

anon_e144f says

TwoScoopsPlissken says

Another big gain today:

,93% is a big gain? I really want some of what you smoke.

For an index fund to gain close to 1% is a big nothingburger? The day didn't finish that way, but I sometimes just don't get people. Ultimately the day to day doesn't matter really, it's long term. But yeah, 30 stocks, basically the worlds largest companies, having a good enough day to bring that average up 1% is probably considered a big gain for one day. I see no problem with the statement.

Who am I kidding. Let's just burn it all to the ground. We're doomed!

What happened to the Plunge Protection Team and the volitile trading switch?

Did Obama turn it off so Soros could manipulate the markets again? He did, HE DID! That crooked bastard.

anonymous says

Fellow PatNetters - start taking screen shots of your posts, comments and threads.

You can like your own post and it will email a copy to yourself. Then when it gets deleted you can read it again to see there was nothing that even comes close to a personal attack, and know what censorship by a “political opponent “ feels like while you wonder wtf happened to this place

anonymous says

errc says

You can like your own post and it will email a copy to yourself

That's wonderful. "Like" selfies.

anon_9ed23 says

because a certain feathered animal said so?

I thought he was mainly invested in APPL and wetbulbs.

Hutch says

Is this the plan for the grand finale of the military parade?

You do understand that's a made up tweet from a tweet generator?

It is another 1,000 down today-interesting.

Meh.

I'll know the markets up when liberals ignore it like they did most of last year except on a few down days.

lostand confused says

It is another 1,000 down today-interesting.

Interesting indeed

TwoScoopsPlissken says

I'll know the markets up when liberals ignore it like they did most of last year except on a few down days.

It's only newsworthy because our President makes such a big deal about it when it goes up.

If he owns the increases, then he also owns the decreases.

As Warren Buffett likes to say, when fundamentals have not changed, but stocks plummet, that just means they are on sale at a big discount and he's happy about it because it's a buying opportunity.

Another way to look at it: these drops set us back to about 3 months ago.

Of course there is momentum to deal with, meaning that we may still have a lot more people who bought on margin to shake out before things stabilize and start climbing again.

It's all OK with me. Kind of fun to watch the drama, and I laugh at the way that NPR breathlessly announces the "biggest one day point drop ever" without mentioning that it's maybe in the top 500 daily drops percentage-wise, maybe not. And without mentioning the truly record run-up over the last year. They have an anti-Trump agenda to push.

Notice how its been wildly unstable since the memo was released? Color me, surprised.

lostand confused says

It is another 1,000 down today-interesting.

Horrible, now it's only up 25% for the last year.

Sell... Sell...

Booger says

Notice how its been wildly unstable since the memo was released? Color me, surprised.

Someone is paying attention.

HappyGilmore says

It's only newsworthy because our President makes such a big deal about it when it goes up.

If he owns the increases, then he also owns the decreases.

Haven't quite a few here given Obama credit for the last year's run up? You know, following Obama's trend line (of gaining 600 points for 2016).

So this downturn, IS ALL OBAMA's FAULT.

anon_2d3fb says

Haven't quite a few here given Obama credit for the last year's run up? You know, following Obama's trend line (of gaining 600 points for 2016).

So this downturn, IS ALL OBAMA's FAULT.

Sure--give Obama credit for the entire rise and then you can give him credit for the recent fall as well.

Just be consistent. That's all we're asking.

HappyGilmore says

anon_2d3fb says

Haven't quite a few here given Obama credit for the last year's run up? You know, following Obama's trend line (of gaining 600 points for 2016).

So this downturn, IS ALL OBAMA's FAULT.

Sure--give Obama credit for the entire rise and then you can give him credit for the recent fall as well.

Just be consistent. That's all we're asking.

Thank Trump for the economy improving.

Blame no president for market fluctuations.

That is all.

S&P 500 is down 10.15% from the high. Officially a correction

Booger says

S&P 500 is down 10.15% from the high. Officially a correction

Yeah but these things we don't know-in hindsight it will be very clear-a pause or a massive leg down?

lostand confused says

Booger says

S&P 500 is down 10.15% from the high. Officially a correction

Yeah but these things we don't know-in hindsight it will be very clear-a pause or a massive leg down?

So far I haven't heard a good explanation even for this correction, let alone a potential "massive leg down".