patrick.net

Car maintenance is cheap on all cars.

Oil changes every 3k miles usually means under $200 a year if you pay someone. Air filter is 15$ and you can even buy reusable that you dust off.

Spark plugs and some small ticket items you do every 100k, and I’ve known most people to not touch these for 250k miles where it’s time for new car anyway.

EV long term maintenance is unknown. I hear horror stories about batteries, could be hearsay. But it’s new tech that very likely needs to mature a bit more. It’s definitely the future.

Strategist says

The battery packs are guaranteed for 8 years, 100K miles with full replacement, not pro rated. Engines are not guaranteed that long, and need constant maintenance.

You lose 25% of you battery that's 75 miles less the car can make between charges. Longer charging time to get less charge as the battery deteriorates.

TrumpingTits says

Strategist says

Oil companies have been receiving subsidies for ever. What a waste.

I suppose next you are going to bring up the 'subsidies' of military domination of the Middle East?

Funny, the US doesn't get its oil form the ME...except for Bat Shit California...but that is California's choice.

The US is or is close to being a net oil producer right now.

True, but oil companies still receive subsidies. Why shouldn't clean energy and electric cars?

I just drove my Bolt from San Diego County to Las Vegas. My Bolt is my all-time favorite car.

Strategist says

TrumpingTits says

Strategist says

Oil companies have been receiving subsidies for ever. What a waste.

I suppose next you are going to bring up the 'subsidies' of military domination of the Middle East?

Funny, the US doesn't get its oil form the ME...except for Bat Shit California...but that is California's choice.

The US is or is close to being a net oil producer right now.

True, but oil companies still receive subsidies. Why shouldn't clean energy and electric cars?

Because oil companies pay politicians a lot more money.

The US MAY (MIT just did a research study that said the industry group EIA numbers for future production are way over optimistic and killing the mileage regs is going to increase gasoline consumption) become a net oil producer but it won't be producing anywhere enough gasoline with domestic supplies anytime soon. The refineries are mostly built for heavy sour crude that is imported, , not the light sweet coming out of fracking. Capacity to refine light sweet is pretty much maxed out. There ins't a strong market overseas to sell it either. Refineries cost billions of dollars and take up to a decade to get up and running so there isn't going to be a quick changeover coming.

TrumpingTits says

California's choice.

Thanks for posting that. It surprised me, so I looked up the numbers, and found they have changed dramatically in the most recent 20 years. CA used to get most of its oil from USA sources, but now it's mostly foreign, and half the foreign oil comes from Muslim countries that hate us (KSA, Iraq, Kuwait). Meanwhile, CA has plenty of oil offshore, and the coastal Pacific would be comparatively easier to drill than the North Sea, for example.

Chart of CA oil sources, with links detailing foreign sources:

Evan F. says

0-60 in 2.1 sec. If you haven't ridden in one, you're missing out, they're fucking amazing.

I'm sure that acceleration really comes in handy when sitting in bumper to bumper traffic on a CA Freeway.

Strategist says

The battery packs are guaranteed for 8 years, 100K miles with full replacement, not pro rated. Engines are not guaranteed that long, and need constant maintenance.

First, engines today last well longer than 100K miles, and Second, if by chance you had to replace one, it sure as hell won't cost the $10K+ it costs for a battery pack at 100K miles.

FortWayne says

Car maintenance is cheap on all cars.

Oil changes every 3k miles usually means under $200 a year if you pay someone. Air filter is 15$ and you can even buy reusable that you dust off.

Spark plugs and some small ticket items you do every 100k, a

But, but, but... regular maintenance is so expensive, that's why I have to pay DOUBLE for my EV up front, compare to the conventional car...

All I can add is a friend has both a high-end porsche and a nice modified BMW. He prefers the tesla he has - he claims it has great torque and great handling. Fun car to drive. At that level (high end "lifestyle" decision), I don't know that maintenance costs are a concern. It will be too bad if a company like Tesla can't succeed in the US. Given that GM was bailed out, I am surprised at the vitriol toward Tesla on the board. I would think that Tesla would have had a better go if GM was simply "gone" - maybe Musk would have picked up the EV part of GM - who knows. Musk may not do everything "right", but he sure is trying which is more than most of us do on this board. :)

Cheers,.

bob2356 says

True, but oil companies still receive subsidies. Why shouldn't clean energy and electric cars?

Because oil companies pay politicians a lot more money.

The US MAY (MIT just did a research study that said the industry group EIA numbers for future production are way over optimistic and killing the mileage regs is going to increase gasoline consumption) become a net oil producer but it won't be producing anywhere enough gasoline with domestic supplies anytime soon. The refineries are mostly built for heavy sour crude that is imported, , not the light sweet coming out of fracking. Capacity to refine light sweet is pretty much maxed out. There ins't a strong market overseas to sell it either. Refineries cost billions of dollars and take up to a decade to get up and running so there isn't going to be a quick changeover coming.

I believe it. Nothing good can happen when politicians meet $trillion oil companies.
I'm very optimistic when it comes to Trump attempting to eliminate mileage requirements. Even if he succeeds, California and half the states will still maintain their mileage requirements. So will all of Europe, China, and Asia. The car companies will be forced to go by what most of the world wants. It won't be economical for them to go by old mileage rules for just 20 American states.

People confuses good product with good company. This is exactly where Elon can survive this long. A sexy product that diverts people’s attention away from asking the question of “what is the return of investment”. Ponzi means the investment scheme lose money and require new capital injection. A good product is a good product. You can have a good product and a ponzi scheme at the same time.

Strategist says

Even if he succeeds, California and half the states will still maintain their mileage requirements. So will all of Europe, China, and Asia. The car companies will be forced to go by what most of the world wants. It won't be economical for them to go by old mileage rules for just 20 American states.

Car companies have successfully kept separate product lines for US, Europe and 3rd world countries for ages. Nothing will preclude them from doing the same going forward. US market is big enough to warrant US-only models.

MrMagic says

First, engines today last well longer than 100K miles, and Second, if by chance you had to replace one, it sure as hell won't cost the $10K+ it costs for a battery pack at 100K miles.

As others have said here, a Model 3 is most comparable to a BMW 3 series or Audi A4. If you grenade a motor on one of those cars, you are most definitely looking at repairs in the 10k region. And both of those cars only carry warranties of 4yrs/50k miles.

MrMagic says

I'm sure that acceleration really comes in handy when sitting in bumper to bumper traffic on a CA Freeway.

The same might be said of any performance car. I'm sure the owner of a LaFerrari is delighted to idle their day away on the 405. What's your point? The difference is that my buddy- who owns a 75D- flips on auto pilot and is able to relax, do a fucking crossword, and only barely pay attention to what's in front of him on his morning commute.

Tenpoundbass says

You lose 25% of you battery that's 75 miles less the car can make between charges. Longer charging time to get less charge as the battery deteriorates.

Not sure where you're getting that claim from.

https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/

Also, ICE engines lose efficiency over time too. After 100k miles you're invariably getting slightly worse mileage and lesser performance. Wear and tear does that to any mechanical system.

Evan F. says

my buddy- who owns a 75D- flips on auto pilot and is able to relax, do a fucking crossword, and only barely pay attention to what's in front of him on his morning commute.

Highly idiotic. People fucking died by doing this.

DASKAA says

Highly idiotic. People fucking died by doing this.

True. But the ones who died were going well north of 50 mph. He's crawling along the 405 at 5mph when he does this. Trust me, no one is going to die here.

Evan F. says

He's crawling along the 405 at 5mph

Yes, like I said, everyone needs the acceleration of a model 3 for that situation.
Evan F. says

I'm sure the owner of a LaFerrari is delighted to idle their day away on the 405. What's your point?

I seriously doubt that. I think YOUR point is a little bit dull.

Only in California do people buy expensive sports cars only to idle along at 5 mph.... Must be something to do with that "small penis syndrome".

MrMagic says

Only in California do people buy expensive sports cars only to idle along at 5 mph.... Must be something to do with that "small penis syndrome".

Sure, cities like NYC, Shanghai, Hong Kong, London etc. have completely nonexistent traffic and a shocking dearth of wealthy people. And the ones who are wealthy drive nothing but Yugos.

My amazingly dull point is only in response to yours (which is also dull).

How Desperate Is Elon?

Elon can’t sell his cars – so he is suing to make people buy them...

Or at least, suing to compel the government to keep on paying people to buy them – if that distinction amounts to any meaningful difference.

When the subsidies dried up in Denmark, so did Tesla’s sales – by 94 percent. That’s not a typo. With the subsidy in place, 2,738 Teslas were sold in 2015. With the subsidies gone, 176 Teslas were sold the following year.

These purchaser subsidies amounted to several thousand dollars each, and worth a lot more to Tesla, et al, since without them the incentive to buy an electric car dims considerably.



Elon has admitted openly that he can’t do “business” without these subsidies: “Clean energy vehicles” – as he styles them – “aren’t attractive enough to compete without some form of taxpayer-backed subsidy.”

In any event, when the government of Ontario, Canada announced this week that it planned to eliminate the subsidies for EVs – at least, those which pay people with other people’s money to buy Teslas – Elon and his lawyers ran to the courts for succor. Time to call Saul!

“The decision has already inflicted substantial harm on Tesla Canada in the form of lost sales,” the brief contends.

Or rather, why subsidize?



He has singlehandedly perverted the market for electric cars – which aren’t an intrinsically stupid idea – by stupidly building them to be high-performance and luxurious, which has made them much too expensive to be anything other than low-volume indulgences for the virtue-signaling affluent.

But subsidizing high-performing/high-cost electric cars for virtue-signaling affluent people who ought to be buying their own cars is a species of obnoxiousness akin to rent-controlled luxury apartments in Manhattan.



https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-18/how-desperate-elon

Evan F. says

DASKAA says

Highly idiotic. People fucking died by doing this.

True. But the ones who died were going well north of 50 mph. He's crawling along the 405 at 5mph when he does this. Trust me, no one is going to die here.

You don't need to buy a Tesla to have adaptive cruise control allowing to crawl along in 5mph traffic - many other makes already offer this feature.

MrBark says

Who paid in-full for a vehicle that they did not receive? Name one person.

According to Tesla's site, anyone who put a deposit down in the last month.

Strategist says

No such company in America.

See above about paying and not receiving. As to government subsidies:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html

Yes it's old, but just pulled the first one from the list.

Strategist says

Musk deserves another $10 billion in subsidies.

Since you're in the giving mood about throwing just one billion my way? You know, because giving people money is always a sure sign they're successful.

Evan F. says

Lol where the hell are you getting this? Pretty much everyone who buys a Model S is someone who acknowledges that climate change is real, and they're willing to pay a premium to do something about it, in addition to feeling smug about it.

MrBark says

I'm never going back to daily driving a gas car.

Hate to burst your bubble on this but:

clambo says

The car subsidy is going down in 2019

Electric rates are also going up for many folks unless they can shift their demand to off peak times. This is tricky, as it also represents an opportunity for the PowerWall product.
Starting in 2019, time-of-use rates (TOU) will become mandatory for all San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) customers. These new TOU rates will be less favorable to solar customers than current TOU rates, due to peak pricing periods later in the day.
PG&E is currently experimenting with TOU rate schedules and will be rolling them out for all customers in the 2020 time frame.

Evan F. says

As others have said here, a Model 3 is most comparable to a BMW 3 series or Audi A4. If you grenade a motor on one of those cars, you are most definitely looking at repairs in the 10k region. And both of those cars only carry warranties of 4yrs/50k miles.

Pretty much the only way to grenade a modern engine is to leave the oil drain open. Since leaded gas (highly oil contaminating and corrosive) went out 250-300k is the norm for any engine that has regular oil changes. My sjuburban is at 370k and going just fine.

bob2356 says

Pretty much the only way to grenade a modern engine is to leave the oil drain open.

Pretty much. But with BMW M3 there is also the famous "money shift". ;)

AntiOcasioCortez says

What subsidies?

Massive tax breaks and deferrals. It's not 'subsidies' in name, but it's corporate welfare all the same.

DASKAA says

MrMagic says

Why do they have production defects if they just left the factory??? Hmmmm...

Pretty common practice at other automakers. GM specifically.

Really???

Common???

86% Of Model 3s Produced to Meet Tesla's 5,000/Week Goal Needed Rework

Internal documents revealed by Business insider disclose that Tesla had to re-work over 4,300 of the much discussed 5,000 Model 3 vehicles it built in June, and later touted as a production target milestone.

The same report also gives those closely following the Tesla saga additional color what the term "factory gated" could mean. One would guess that Musk can't put most of these 5,000 vehicles - about 20% of which were built in Tesla's GA4 assembly tent - on the road, when more than 86% of them need to be reworked. Internal documents revealed that these reworks came during the week of June 23 and that each one took about 37 minutes to complete.

As a result, instead of 5,000 new vehicles out on the streets, most were likely "factory gated". In other words, they needed to be fixed.

What is also troubling is that the company's "first pass yield", or the number of vehicles that made their way through the manufacturing process without needing rework, was anemic.

The normal range for the auto industry is between 65% and 80%, according to experts cited in the BI article. Using the numbers provided, Tesla's first pass yield was less than 14%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-21/86-model-3s-produced-meet-teslas-5000week-goal-needed-rework

But, but, but... you save so much money on gas when you pay DOUBLE for such a nice, quality vehicle. Oh, and that acceleration....

LOL

MrMagic says

DASKAA says

MrMagic says

Why do they have production defects if they just left the factory??? Hmmmm...

Pretty common practice at other automakers. GM specifically.

Really???

Common???

Yep. Really-really. Talk to anyone who worked at GM plants and they will tell you the stories of fixing cars on the lots after they exit the assembly line. Now, Toyota, Honda and such don't do this, because they prefer to stop the line and fix the issue right there, production numbers be damned.

DASKAA says

Talk to anyone who worked at GM plants and they will tell you the stories of fixing cars on the lots after they exit the assembly line.

Nobody said it NEVER happens at other manufactures.... but..

MrMagic says

The normal range for the auto industry is between 65% and 80%, according to experts cited in the BI article. Using the numbers provided, Tesla's first pass yield was less than 14%.

So, normally 65% - 80% come off the line fine, on average, but Tesla's only have less than 14% that come of the line fine.

That's not an issue??

MrMagic says

DASKAA says

Talk to anyone who worked at GM plants and they will tell you the stories of fixing cars on the lots after they exit the assembly line.

Nobody said it NEVER happens at other manufactures.... but..

MrMagic says

The normal range for the auto industry is between 65% and 80%, according to experts cited in the BI article. Using the numbers provided, Tesla's first pass yield was less than 14%.

So, normally 65% - 80% come off the line fine, on average, but Tesla's only have less than 14% that come of the line fine.

That's not an issue??

We could compare these numbers with the numbers for other automakers in early stages of producing completely new model on a brand-new assembly line. If we had them. As it stands now we have no base to compare. It could be normal or it could be highly anomalous. If you have said numbers for other manufacturers in similar stage of production, do share.

DASKAA says

We could compare these numbers with the numbers for other automakers in early stages of producing completely new model on a brand-new assembly line. I

Existing car companies are producing new models all the time and the overall number is 65-80%. Automakers have been at this a long time and know where the pitfalls are.

bob2356 says

Existing car companies are producing new models all the time and the overall number is 65-80%

The overall number across the industry is as informative as average body temperature across a county. Do we have the number (specifically) for the first several months of (specifically) brand-new model on a (specifically) brand-new assembly line?

DASKAA says

Do we have the number (specifically) for the first several months of (specifically) brand-new model on a (specifically) brand-new assembly line?

Google.com maybe?

MrMagic says

DASKAA says

Do we have the number (specifically) for the first several months of (specifically) brand-new model on a (specifically) brand-new assembly line?

Google.com maybe?

Maybe.

MrMagic says

Oh, and that acceleration....

Is there a comparable gas car that you can bang a rin-style hooker on the way to dinner?

I'd pay like 30% more for a Ford Raptor that drove itself

NuttBoxer says

Strategist says

Musk deserves another $10 billion in subsidies.

Since you're in the giving mood about throwing just one billion my way? You know, because giving people money is always a sure sign they're successful.

Sure, not a problem. I have lots of $billions to give away.

DASKAA says

Yep. Really-really. Talk to anyone who worked at GM plants and they will tell you the stories of fixing cars on the lots after they exit the assembly line. Now, Toyota, Honda and such don't do this, because they prefer to stop the line and fix the issue right there, production numbers be damned.

Back in 2005 when my kids were still young, we needed to replace a Mini van. We liked the Toyota Sienna, but decided to check out the Dodge Caravan anyway. We get in the car, and the thing won't start. LOL. They called the battery guy, who came running to give us a jump. On the test drive, the van was rickety and made too much noise.
We ended up with the Sienna even though it cost a lot more. Never had regrets.
Rotten car companies. Rotten Detroit workers. Cheap quality. That's what American car companies usually are. No wonder they always need a taxpayer bailout. The electric cars made by American companies seem pretty good, but I still don't trust them. I trust Tesla only.