patrick.net

But the deck is so obviously lop-sided it isn’t funny.

I remember going to an open house in Palo Alto recently... I nearly lost my balance walking around the house.

Peter P,

That is what we ultimately learned. We now have a wireless modem and can fax, surf and talk at the same time. It took some doing and a little trial and error but we finally got it dialed in. In order to install add'l jacks that would have been an expense. Since there is no crawl space they have to go into the attic. Not fun. Wouldn't it have been better to just put a few in before the drywall went up?

Peter P,

I'm told, in time ALL homes settle. No big there. But these were built right on a creek. If this is the result after two years what will they look like in 20?

Enjoy savory gourmet pizzas, caeser salads, fresh strawberries, ice cream and flavored lemonades.

No caviar? :(

tannenbaum,

Who are they going to get to skydive? FB's with nothing left to lose?

Who are they going to get to skydive? FB’s with nothing left to lose?

Hopefully the divers will experience a softer landing than the FBs.

Rainmaking- I read that the Chinese routinely seed clouds to get rain and to break up hailstorms.

Or one can intensify storms like they did in State of Fear. :)

"Hopefully the divers will experience a softer landing than the FB's"

LOL! Damn!

They're resorting to "car lot" tactics to sell homes! And why not? It's all about the monthly payment isn't it?

If any of you get the chance rent (don't buy) the movie "Slasher".

No it is not a "slasher movie". It's done by John Landis (The Blues Brothers) about the ULTIMATE used car salesman and was shot over a couple of days in Memphis. The guy is a stone alcoholic and car lots from around the country call him in to clear inventory. It's a side of America most Americans don't get to see. Funny stuff.

We have a new metaphor to add to the blog collective:

FB as a parachute-less skydiver.

SFWoman,

My old boss said he would run into Bill Gates and his wife going out to the movies like any other couple up in Redmond. Now? Forget it. I did feel bad for a lot of the people that worked hard to build relationships w/Vulcan Enterprises though. A lot of hard work and rejection just to get their foot in the door and after numerous failed investments (including the "Trailgangsters") Paul threw a lot of good people "under the bus".

Paul? What do ALL of these people have in common? Yeah, that's right, Paul, you! You!

I had clients that worked for the now defunct Oregon Sports Arena and felt their futures were secure b/c they had their wagon hitched to a billionaires star. One of the wives was soooo snooty everytime I would call. How's that working out for ya'?

newsfreak,

NOTHING has been right in MA this year. Much weird weather.

FB as a parachute-less skydiver who thought they have soft-landed at 30000 ft.

Robert posted this on Ben's blog last week, but I'd say it's worth repeating here:

'The Bigger The Boom, The Bigger The Crash’
Comment by Robert Cote
2006-07-07 13:42:33

"Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. As of this time we are plummeting earthward in a death spiral that is sure to lead to our demise. But the good news, the people in the building we are about to crash into will die before us. Thank you for flying Real Estate Airlines for so long. We know you have a choice of investments and we brokers… err… crewmembers know you have a choice of investment vehicles. We also appreciate you willingness to pay more than fulll price for tickets and for your faith in us for so long after everyone predicted we would run out of gas, just as we are doing now. Again, thanks for flying and enjoy your coming swift departure."

How do you even price a $100 million home?

See if you can rent it out for $800,000+/month.

Astrid,

I don't know what I would do if I do make 10 bil. Here are a few random thoughts.

Vaguely speaking, helping excellent causes, especially in traditional research --the star-alignment and ancient history sorts, as Peter P would put it. I'd love to support a few starving (but naturally talented) phycists (as physics was my passion before coming to US of A) and mathematicians. I like archeaology. So I'd support a few expeditions. There are a lot of potential digs in western China, where the ancient dynasties were seated.

I don't care much about directly helping the poor. THere's never enough money to help the poor in this world. One cannot easily justify helping one group of poor people and neglect the vast majority. To me, it's a lost cause. In addition, I don't believe in indiscriminate kindness and generosity. Money should be used to elevate the best people in this world. By elevating the best, we indirectly help the lesser.

I would set up a venture capital fund. The financing terms will not be as predatory as the other funds. But I will call the shots.

I would also use the money to cultivate political influences. I will be too old to enter the political life. But I wish to send some of my children to the military and diplomatic services. Elective politics in a democracy is to be avoided. Should one of children choose an artistic or research career, that'll be fine with me. But the boy must at least give the military service a try. My children will be discouraged to pursue a business career, unless he is naturally talented in and strongly predispositioned towards it.

I will also set up my fiefdom and take care of those who live under me, for loyalty goes in both directions.

SFWoman,

You know it's hard for me to say b/c I don't work downtown any more and most of my clients that WERE season ticket holders have absolutely bailed. Here's what I do know, Paul Allen defaulted on hundreds of millions of bonds, fired his financial advisor (hired his sister) and left Oregon Arena Sports in ruin. The Trail Blazers are on the auction block and a couple of the former players and Jeld Wen are talking about partnering up in time for the fall season. The reason I'm so vague on much of this is b/c no one seems to care. After you've been in Oregon for awhile nothing much upsets you any more.

GC, are you my altered ego? :)

I don’t care much about directly helping the poor. THere’s never enough money to help the poor in this world. One cannot easily justify helping one group of poor people and neglect the vast majority.

Cannot be more true. This is why helping research and education is so much better than feeding starving children. Sorry for being insensitive, I am a utilitarian.

Peter, c'est tres possible.

I don’t care much about directly helping the poor. THere’s never enough money to help the poor in this world. One cannot easily justify helping one group of poor people and neglect the vast majority. To me, it’s a lost cause.

Not true. Gates has been successful in vaccinating millions to curtail preventable diseases. There are a variety of infectious diseases which can be curtailed at very low cost. This is a good use of philanthropic dollars, IMO. He also provides scholarships to deserving low income students, so it is not an "either or" propostion.

In addition, I don’t believe in indiscriminate kindness and generosity. Money should be used to elevate the best people in this world. By elevating the best, we indirectly help the lesser.

And at what point does is this supposed to trickle down to the poor? How about at the point when a multibillionaire software mogul decides to help them.

Gates has been successful in vaccinating millions to curtail preventable diseases. There are a variety of infectious diseases which can be curtailed at very low cost.

True. Vaccination gives a lot of bang for the buck. It should be high on the priority list.

And at what point does is this supposed to trickle down to the poor?

Sometimes it is better just to make a snap judgement and do the right thing. Philanthropy needs not be scientific. :)

The helping the 3rd world poor thing is a pretty small concern in this country. People I meet seem much more interested in "rescuing" animals than feeding 3rd world children. Other OECD countries might have different priorities.

Gateses' philanthropy efforts are quite cost effective. The cost of preventing an epidemic is much lower than the cost of living through one. Developed nations benefit too, because of closer disease monitoring and reduced need for military intervention. However, the innoculation efforts are better if combined with teachings of population control and sustainable agriculture.

However, the innoculation efforts are better if combined with teachings of population control and sustainable agriculture.

Absolutely. Quite paradoxically, the priority for developing countries should be:

1. Education
2. Food
3. Disease

Reversing the order will make the world more unsustainable.

Misunderstood, I resign.

Gates' AIDS cause is an excellent one. As someone has already pointed out, it benefits everybody on this planet.

Human society is a pyramid. There will always be poor people. What is considered poor living condition today was regal a few thousand years ago. It's all relative. You cannot fight poverty and win. It's just not possible.

Behind every vehiment demand for the rich to give to the poor, I sense envy at work.

SQT Says:

July 12th, 2006 at 2:17 pm
John Burns Real Estate Consulting When Does it Become a Hard Landing?

Interesting reading. This guy seems pretty mixed on real estate's outlook, although one thing he doesn't factor in is the potential for a RE slowdown to significantly affect jobs, given the high portion of recent new jobs from the RE/construction/RE finance sectors.

GC,

Those are pretty good points. Most of the pre-19th century knowledge innovations came from natural philosophers patronized by princes and noblemen. The tenures and grants may be more meritocratic, but it overemphasizes politics and presentation, and many smart people are completely alienated from the system.

I'm not so sure about the influences of diplomats and militarymen. Their influence seems to have peaked around 1915, and then started declining. Media mogulship might be the way to go, if you're interested in power and influence.

I don't know if we in the developed world have the stomach to really wait out the problem children nations of Africa. They're structurally backwards (strong tribal identification, weak nationalist or humanist identification) and overcrowded. That's often a recipe for decades or centuries of bloody civil wars where many tribes may be completely eradicated (like in Rhwanda if the Hutus were left alone, or still happening in Congo).

Are you thinking of the digs in Sichuan or further northwest? Or perhaps closer to the Wei and Huang rivers? The yields from the Sichuan digs is quite amazing, and a very interesting addition (alternative?) to the traditional Chinese history narrative.

RE: the Saudi prince's Aspen resort, that kind of stuff just pisses me off. First off, how much skiing do you think this guy does? He probably spends one week a year or less at this place. Second, how many bathrooms do you really need? More than 1 per bedroom?

At least it'll boost the comps for the area. Also, I wonder if the realtor (who is currently creaming in his pants at the possibility of a sale) is getting the full 5%? I've heard once you're above a certain price range, the commissions are more pre-negotiated.

Checking in.

Hey, Escaped, welcome back! :)

I miss your website, resistyourbiology.com.

Second, how many bathrooms do you really need? More than 1 per bedroom?

2 per bedroom would be nice. His-and-hers.

Skibum,

Bandar seems aimed at driving the billionaires out of Aspen in favor of the multi-billionaires :)

There's almost no way he could possibly get that much. Those Saudi princes have very distinctive (ie gaudy) tastes that will not appeal to most buyers at that price level. Anyone moving in would have to do massive redecoration and price that into his/her costs. Even if Bandar actually dumped a lot of money into the place, it's highly doubtful that someone would buy him out at those price levels.

That’s often a recipe for decades or centuries of bloody civil wars where many tribes may be completely eradicated (like in Rhwanda if the Hutus were left alone, or still happening in Congo).

It has everything to do with humanity at its raw form. There is little to be done. Any form of help will be drained before effects can be seen. Perhaps we should just leave it alone.

A question for any civil engineers and dam enthusiasts amongst us: why do dams that cost so relatively little to build (Glen Canyon, Hoover, Hetch Hetchy) now cost so much for maintenance? Is there anything about dam building that has gone up hugely in cost?

Anyone interested in seeing me set up that website?

Absolutely.

I even had my Realtor in CT asking me if I thought there was going to be a “hard landing”.

I said, “lady, the plane ain’t got no wings and even the dogs back in cargo have got it figured out.”

Nice.

Hey Escape,

Welcome back! (I hope you'll stay a little while, even though it's mid summer and there's much gardening to be done) Where did you eventually move to, if not CT like you originally planned?

Peter P,

Do you really need two bathrooms per bedroom? How about his and her toilet, tastefully hidden out of sight?

Do you really need two bathrooms per bedroom? How about his and her toilet, tastefully hidden out of sight?

Of course I do not need that. It is just a nice-to-have. :)

Having two toilet compartments may be a good idea though.

Escaped, welcome back!

However, the innoculation efforts are better if combined with teachings of population control and sustainable agriculture.

Absolutely 100% agree. Lots of people blindly give money to charities mainly because it "feels right" or because it assuages their guilt over watching Sally Struthers crying over emaciated children in some 3rd world hellhole --which they're viewing from the comfort of the Barcalounger on the 60" plasma. Whether or not those charities actually do any real long-term good vs. merely perpetuating themselves rarely seems to matter.

I'll donate time/money only if and when I believe the cause actually has a chance of making a difference in solving structural long-term problems. This may sound harsh, but I see no point in giving away hard earned money if the only long-term "good" it does is create more poor people. I don't like the fact that people are starving to death in other countries, but if all we do is send food with no plan to help them become self-sufficient, then all we are doing is creating a futile cycle of dependency and despair.

I don’t like the fact that people are starving to death in other countries, but if all we do is send food with no plan to help them become self-sufficient, then all we are doing is creating a futile cycle of dependency and despair.

True. What is distressing is the hidden, insidious way in which charity often benefits rich country donors more than the poor country recipients. The US agriculture industry manipulates the system by demanding subsidies in order to avoid the need to compete with farmers in poor countries. Then they sell surplus food to governments and NGOs for distribution via direct aid to the same poor countries. Such hypocrisy! They could just let the poor farmers compete and there would be no need for direct aid!

I am, however, all for food handouts when an acute crisis is brought about by unforeseen events which are difficult to plan for--eg the recent tsunami in Asia. If conditions in a country are unsuitable for farming or other productive activities, then sending food is a waste. Better to let nature takes its course. The people will eventually solve the problem themselves or emigrate to a place where they can find a way to feed their families.

Bap,

Believe it or not, the court clogging in recent years is mostly caused by corporations suing other corporations. Indeed, companies like MSFT and Dell have very restrictive licensing contracts for users of their products, and it's often nearly impossible to sue them.

I think the role of trial lawyers in destroying modern civilization has been greatly exaggerated. It's not a very efficient system and it is full of flaws, but it is more a symptom of the underlying problem than the problem itself.