patrick.net

Or perhaps you were just referring to the previous post that implied Activist=Nuts.

What kind of nuts? Are they flavored? :-P

“Nuff said”
(Where is DifferentSean anyway?)

i'm here -- been visiting the best new bubble blog going - caseyserin.com...

but retreating to work on other projects that i've neglected... house, career, relationship, political advocacy, etc...

good old Arthur Andersen/Accentura -- didn't they disappear in a puff of auditing smoke, based on overlooking some not so generally accepted accounting practice?

i'm thinking of moving to cooler climes in the south, or else back to UK... where housing affordability is even worse :(

You gotta be a charity. There’s no way anybody that even pretends to be an attorney told him it was okay. IMO he’s jumped the shark and blown his cover.

i think he visited his attorney and explained his situation, then started regurgitating those great guru get-rich ideas from the seminars, to the point where the attorney just glazes over and says 'sure', 'why not', 'that'll work' until the half hour is up. casey then comes back to report on his blog that his RE attorney has endorsed, well, just about anything... but let's face it, we're living in a world where tom at myspace and whoever at youtube get paid hundreds of millions for an idea -- you just have to think big!

i'm not too worried about small fry like casey -- he's like the innocent kid who's always left behind holding the can when the nasty kids have run off...

a recent article here pointed out that savvy 'investors' from the well-heeled suburbs invested in property right at the point interest rates went south, then sold at the top of the market a few years later. mom and pop investors from poorer suburbs bought in much later, probably after doing the guru course, and they're facing pain and foreclosure in droves now as prices collapse in the poorer areas. when the hairdresser is giving property tips...

here's a news story today about a billionaire developer who wants more, and when he can't sell his stock at top dollar, just rents it out indefinitely, having built it for 'wholesale' prices. he also wants to pave and skyscraper the whole planet if at all possible. read the 'Your Say' comments link particularly to see the reader reaction...

Triguboff: let's trade trees for homes

Oh man, where’s Randy when you need him? Casey’s newest scheme is a “raffle.” You buy tickets for $50 or $100 bucks a pop and he raffles off his house.

Huh? Is this legal?

He should just turn those houses into casino's. I figure if you're going to break the law, you might as well go for the big bucks.

The only way he can legally raffle off the houses is if he is willing to give ALL procedes to a charity and he must also file for a permit. I think if he is not in jail by next year, he should write a book called, "How to Break All The Laws And Get Away With It".

The way the housing market is right now is like when the nasdaq crashed...but more like in slow motion. It's like the sellers are begging, "Please buy my stock (house), before it hits bottom". It's like their only salvation is if there is a sheeple out there that will put his head on a chopping block in place of the sellers. There are still some sheeple out there, but I don't think there are much more left.

allah,

That is so true. Hardly a day goes where I don't wonder to myself, "Why are ALL of these homes being listed at the same time?" I mean everything! From some of Oregon's most stately McMansions to 2/1 ba. fixers gussied up in such a hurry the paint must still be wet!

What exactly is it that is motivating all of these people (sellers) with the same "primal urge" at precisely the same time?

Sales up to OCT 2005 seem to have been done out of a sense of greed. After that fear and protecting profits appear to be the primary drivers.

George,

That is more than a little surprising. Especially considering that some of the most bearish comments we've heard have come from the public builders themselves! We are getting reports that wild expectations are in fact alive and well and have seen numerous listings in the Bend, OR area for 200K, just for a buildable lot! (Of course they're not selling but.....)

Even here in OR I've seen my share of "amenities" that never materialized! One of the silliest was a "3 Hole Golf Course". WTF? So you play it 3 times or what? Guess I'll never know b/c it's gone from being a "green space" to....... buildable lots.

J Galt,

The one instance you saw was a special case because there was an initial request to stay on topic. Usually I'm wholeheartedly into OT esoterica and I'm always happy to learn about interesting subjects like food industry process development (my boyfriend did a stint doing process development for new BBQ sauces and marinades - my verdict? all too sugary and high fructose syrup dependent).

I do like the idea of flavored pistachio and almond, I think they definitely have several advantages over potato chips. They're perceived as healthier and they are healthier than more processed foods. They're compact and easy to carry. They're impulse buy items so more flavors often mean multiple purchases.

At least with my personal purchase habits, I know that I will buy something that sounds appealing novel at least once, even if it is priced more than I would pay for a less novel comparable, and if I really like the flavor, I can be very attached to "my special item."

I know you folks probably know all this and I'm just an amateur shouting towards people at the deep end of the pool. I would definitely look to "upscale" potato chip manufacturers for ideas. Good flavored nuts with similar packaging would make an appealing substitute for KettleChips.

With woolong tea. Yeah, might be a little know fact, but Taiwanese preserves/snack food manufacturers (maybe the best in Asia outside of Japan) prefer woolong tea over green tea. They have a very floral and distinct scent that goes well with many foods.

*astrid, who has threadjacked several posts with OT kitchen knife discussions

@DinOR,

The doublespeak from the HB's IMO makes a lot of sense. On the one hand they are bearish to investors - setting themselves up for low profit expectations to protect stock value. On the other hand, they've already committed themselves with these completed or near-completed developments, and of course they've got to sell them. Once you've jumpedo out of the plane, there's no use trying to find your way back in - you've gotta turn your attention to finding that parachute ripcord.

George's Lennar observations are interesting, though. I wonder how Kara's operations were so different that they had to file for bankruptcy?

@RC,

Yet another vivid analogy! Sadly, it brings to mind that Rhode Island nightclub fire from a couple of years ago. However, there will certainly be plenty of GF's who will sit through all the credits, looking for that extra footage they sometimes add on at the very end for die-hards.

George,
Do you have any idea how much local control Lennar or other HB's have over things like pricing, incentives, etc? For instance, is there some local project mgr for that development you mentioned who basically runs that whole party, or is it centrally controlled?

skibum,

Good point. There may actually be a third tangent to their strategy in that at least by initially placing the units at "priced to sit" levels they can side step some of the litigation liability by establishing a paper trail of failed marketing efforts.

Whatever their strategy it's frustrating to see these last odd and angry shots to prop up pricing.

On Monday night CNBC ran an hour special called "Boomer Angst" and they discussed/exposed many of the "wealth effect" myths. Bob Pisani did a great job revealing that for all the supposed "wealth" created by the Housing Boom it's all basically gone because most everyone turned right around and mortgaged against it! Good for you Bob!

(In essence, we became our own GF).

@DinOR,

I'm surprised Pisani would be so bearish. That guy's such a smarmy buttplug. So I went to the CNBC website - interestingly:

"Pisani, whose father was a homebuilder, grew up working in his father's business. He and his father taught a course on real estate development at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania from 1987 to 1992."

However, he doesn't annoy me nearly as much as that guy Rick Santelli, the dude who reports from the floor of the Chicago Merc. What a douchebag.

skibum,

I'm hardly a fan of CNBC (everyone here knows I'm a Bloomberg guy) but after many here shared that they had "jumped the shark" and went bearish on RE I couldn't stay away! After years of mindless cheerleading they've finally taken the plunge.

The reason I found myself gravitating towards Bob's comment is that not only is it a sentiment I share, but more importantly it decimates the theory that boomers/homeowners will be able to coast and lean on their "home equity" as a cornerstone of their retirement! Remember the article SFWoman posted about "stay at home MEW dads"? I think it was in the NYT? Bob quickly coupled that observation w/the total lack of savings that spell life on $1,000 a month soc. sec. check!

Also debunked (across their panel of experts) was the idea of a boomer "equity exodus" from the markets! They never had all that much in there to begin with! (We've debunked that here previously) through HARM's GAO report w/an avg. 401k account size of 29k but it was great to hear this echoed in the MSM.

I eat meat, and I disagree with any sort of activism taken to absurd lengths, but I’ll confess to being very very uneasy about intensive animal husbandry.

I understand. I have two cats myself. I love them very much and I certainly like to spoil them. No one should be easy about undesirable conditions. However, the world is not too pretty in reality either. :(

More fun stories about stupid sellers, this one from Boston, aka East Coast bubble-implosion central:

http://tinyurl.com/pbram

"Fear and anxiety in the housing market"

"As homes linger on the block, owners find it harder to deal with declining prices and the uncertainty of when they will be able to move"

What a bunch of idiots.

skibum,

Funny article! How is it that their buyer (with a pre-approval letter) failed ot get financing? Guess it must have been a "pre" pre-approval letter? And the Greensteins? Get a clue pal. They knocked 326K off the asking but were unwilling to accept the 830K offer?

I don't know about you but there are other things I'd like to have on my tombstone!

"I'd like to sell but I'm not going to give it away"

Stephen Greenstein 1955-200?

@DinOR,
Yeah, it's the mantra of the F'ed Seller: "I don't want to give it away," which means, "I HELOC'ed the crap out of my equity, and I can't sell for less than $XX, and on top of that, I'm pissed off my neighbor sold his place last year for $100k more than my current list price."

The story about the Boston condo seller strikes a raw nerve with me and I'm going to express my anger in rather blunt terms. Feel free to delete the whole damn thing if I'm overly offensive.

The sellers say "The ordeal has also been emotionally draining. The Reagans have had to explain to their devastated 5-year-old son, Sean, that they would not be moving to the Merrimac townhouse, where he was looking forward to finally having a room of his own."

Give me a fucking break. Her five year old is DEVASTATED because he doesn't get his own room.

She doesn't know what devastated really means. Try holding your son in his hospital bed after learning he has a life threatening disease and both of you cry because you feel helpless and you are both wondering if he's going to live. If that doesn't help her put "devastation" into perspective, how about witnessing two men, in Brazil, fight over a shipping crate because it will provide shelter for their family. Devastation is the "loser" being stabbed to death. The guy died trying to put SOME kind of roof over his kids' heads.

Sometimes I read these stories and my anger boils to the point I want to slap the shit out of whining, pathetic, ungrateful, greedy assholes. "I'm entitled" is the standard our society has set and it makes me sick to my stomach. If we don't realize disappointed does not mean devastated we are doomed.

Doug H,

I feel the same way. Over the past year, one of my cousins went through treatment for Hogkin's disease and a close friend had multiple operations for a very dangerous brain tumor. These are smart talented hardworking people in their 20s who were dealt horrible cards of life and still had the strength to get treatment and survive.

Devastation because an FB couldn't unload their overpriced sh!tbox for twice what they paid for it? Give me a break!

ajh Says:

> I’ve got to say it’s somewhat amusing watching
> passionate defenders of Proposition 13
> hyperventilating about rent control.

I am not going to complain about prop. 13 since it saves me a lot of money (especially as it was amended by prop. 58 that will allow me to save hundreds of thousands in taxes every year after my parents die) but it is still unfair and wrong (my Parents pay a about $3K a year in property taxes while the young couple next door pay over $50K a year in property taxes). I think that all Americans should pay the same tax rate and be treated equal in all things (including having the same state college admission requirements).

I don’t “complain” (hyperventilate) about rent control since I am not stupid enough to buy any property that is covered by rent control. I just point out the many problems and abuses when a bunch of “activists” and liberal do gooders try and control the free market (the most common abuse of rent control is when an aging hippie with no real job pays the “owner” $500 a month and rents a couple rooms in his flat for $1,000 a month each…

Devastation because an FB couldn’t unload their overpriced sh!tbox for twice what they paid for it? Give me a break!

I do not care if some kids are "devastated". Many children are starving and dying in Africa and there is nothing we can do.

My X-House is still being rented out for 4k per month(the costs are well over 8k/month) to a rapper and his “friends”. I’ve had neighbors call and complain to me that 10 people seem to be living there!

Now you cannot buy it back. :)

Imagine what they are doing to the energy of the house.

I am not going to complain about prop. 13 since it saves me a lot of money

I understand. I will do the same if I were you.

Prop 13 is a form of rent control and is destroying the free market.

LILLL,

Those rappers know how to live don't they!

(Actually they're clients of Joe Schmoe's) sent there to make your former neighbors life a living HELL! People this is what what I'm talking about! Maybe I can loan him my sub-woofer that is SO LOUD baby birds down the block are being born w/birth defects!

This "the dream" I'll soon be living in Las Vegas where the parties don't stop til "eight in the morning"! (Not too sure how Mrs. DinOR feels about having "hootchie girls" over) but I'm pretty sure just about everything else would be cool?

The people selling their condo - should drop the price, rent for a while and pick up their next property when that has dropped in price - but people can't see that.......

Robert,

Fixing prop 13 at a specific rate as a property right is pretty meaningless unless we go back to the gold standard and the government no longer has the license to print money willynilly.

The problem for me with Prop 13 is the degree of the inequity.

I usually avoid that argument because trying to resolve inequity will bring funny* consequences.

Oakland allows for around 3% per year raises in rent prices if I recall correctly, which is roughly in-line with inflation. I think that is fair and doesn’t create gross inequities.

You contradicted yourself. With rent control, you create "inequality" among renters. :)

The worst program is that new rental supply would be disincentivized. This would drive up future rental prices, making housing unaffordable.

* Nothing funny

LiLLL,

That's a hoot. I'm glad you're not in your former neighbors' shoes.

Property tax should be assessed at the rental equivalent rate. This is consistent with the consumption-based paradigm.

What about taxing by sq footage?

"sat vacant all summer, in spite of being a "vacation property"

austingal, two words:

Hootchie girls.

That's all specuvestors need to get these "vacation properties" filled!

$1,300 a month and no "chicks" frolicking in the pool? No wonder the damn thing sat empty all summer!

What about taxing by sq footage?

So a uber-luxury 2000 sqft 2/2.5 condo in the city with marble baths and wolf range should be charged the same rate as a rundown 2000 sqft 4/1 crap in the Central Valley?

Peter P,

I'll agree with that! Tying property tax to the market prices is just asking for trouble these days. (I'm biased here, I have a parent who would be significantly affected by this.)

DinOR,

I think you just found a new occupation for unemployed realtors.

At least the hot ones under 35. I wonder what the overweight, over-perfumed, over 40 realtors plan to do next...

I’ll agree with that! Tying property tax to the market prices is just asking for trouble these days. (I’m biased here, I have a parent who would be significantly affected by this.)

Yes. Rental prices are more suitable because they are not affected by bubbles.

Okay sq footage tied to IRS tax returns - yes, there's holes in that one too I'm sure

HitB:

It's an October Surprise; Rove's getting desperate, and selling nukes to the DPRK would have been too risky.

/puts tinfoil hat back on shelf.