patrick.net

J Galt,

The one instance you saw was a special case because there was an initial request to stay on topic. Usually I'm wholeheartedly into OT esoterica and I'm always happy to learn about interesting subjects like food industry process development (my boyfriend did a stint doing process development for new BBQ sauces and marinades - my verdict? all too sugary and high fructose syrup dependent).

I do like the idea of flavored pistachio and almond, I think they definitely have several advantages over potato chips. They're perceived as healthier and they are healthier than more processed foods. They're compact and easy to carry. They're impulse buy items so more flavors often mean multiple purchases.

At least with my personal purchase habits, I know that I will buy something that sounds appealing novel at least once, even if it is priced more than I would pay for a less novel comparable, and if I really like the flavor, I can be very attached to "my special item."

I know you folks probably know all this and I'm just an amateur shouting towards people at the deep end of the pool. I would definitely look to "upscale" potato chip manufacturers for ideas. Good flavored nuts with similar packaging would make an appealing substitute for KettleChips.

With woolong tea. Yeah, might be a little know fact, but Taiwanese preserves/snack food manufacturers (maybe the best in Asia outside of Japan) prefer woolong tea over green tea. They have a very floral and distinct scent that goes well with many foods.

*astrid, who has threadjacked several posts with OT kitchen knife discussions

@DinOR,

The doublespeak from the HB's IMO makes a lot of sense. On the one hand they are bearish to investors - setting themselves up for low profit expectations to protect stock value. On the other hand, they've already committed themselves with these completed or near-completed developments, and of course they've got to sell them. Once you've jumpedo out of the plane, there's no use trying to find your way back in - you've gotta turn your attention to finding that parachute ripcord.

George's Lennar observations are interesting, though. I wonder how Kara's operations were so different that they had to file for bankruptcy?

@RC,

Yet another vivid analogy! Sadly, it brings to mind that Rhode Island nightclub fire from a couple of years ago. However, there will certainly be plenty of GF's who will sit through all the credits, looking for that extra footage they sometimes add on at the very end for die-hards.

George,
Do you have any idea how much local control Lennar or other HB's have over things like pricing, incentives, etc? For instance, is there some local project mgr for that development you mentioned who basically runs that whole party, or is it centrally controlled?

skibum,

Good point. There may actually be a third tangent to their strategy in that at least by initially placing the units at "priced to sit" levels they can side step some of the litigation liability by establishing a paper trail of failed marketing efforts.

Whatever their strategy it's frustrating to see these last odd and angry shots to prop up pricing.

On Monday night CNBC ran an hour special called "Boomer Angst" and they discussed/exposed many of the "wealth effect" myths. Bob Pisani did a great job revealing that for all the supposed "wealth" created by the Housing Boom it's all basically gone because most everyone turned right around and mortgaged against it! Good for you Bob!

(In essence, we became our own GF).

@DinOR,

I'm surprised Pisani would be so bearish. That guy's such a smarmy buttplug. So I went to the CNBC website - interestingly:

"Pisani, whose father was a homebuilder, grew up working in his father's business. He and his father taught a course on real estate development at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania from 1987 to 1992."

However, he doesn't annoy me nearly as much as that guy Rick Santelli, the dude who reports from the floor of the Chicago Merc. What a douchebag.

skibum,

I'm hardly a fan of CNBC (everyone here knows I'm a Bloomberg guy) but after many here shared that they had "jumped the shark" and went bearish on RE I couldn't stay away! After years of mindless cheerleading they've finally taken the plunge.

The reason I found myself gravitating towards Bob's comment is that not only is it a sentiment I share, but more importantly it decimates the theory that boomers/homeowners will be able to coast and lean on their "home equity" as a cornerstone of their retirement! Remember the article SFWoman posted about "stay at home MEW dads"? I think it was in the NYT? Bob quickly coupled that observation w/the total lack of savings that spell life on $1,000 a month soc. sec. check!

Also debunked (across their panel of experts) was the idea of a boomer "equity exodus" from the markets! They never had all that much in there to begin with! (We've debunked that here previously) through HARM's GAO report w/an avg. 401k account size of 29k but it was great to hear this echoed in the MSM.

I eat meat, and I disagree with any sort of activism taken to absurd lengths, but I’ll confess to being very very uneasy about intensive animal husbandry.

I understand. I have two cats myself. I love them very much and I certainly like to spoil them. No one should be easy about undesirable conditions. However, the world is not too pretty in reality either. :(

More fun stories about stupid sellers, this one from Boston, aka East Coast bubble-implosion central:

http://tinyurl.com/pbram

"Fear and anxiety in the housing market"

"As homes linger on the block, owners find it harder to deal with declining prices and the uncertainty of when they will be able to move"

What a bunch of idiots.

skibum,

Funny article! How is it that their buyer (with a pre-approval letter) failed ot get financing? Guess it must have been a "pre" pre-approval letter? And the Greensteins? Get a clue pal. They knocked 326K off the asking but were unwilling to accept the 830K offer?

I don't know about you but there are other things I'd like to have on my tombstone!

"I'd like to sell but I'm not going to give it away"

Stephen Greenstein 1955-200?

@DinOR,
Yeah, it's the mantra of the F'ed Seller: "I don't want to give it away," which means, "I HELOC'ed the crap out of my equity, and I can't sell for less than $XX, and on top of that, I'm pissed off my neighbor sold his place last year for $100k more than my current list price."

The story about the Boston condo seller strikes a raw nerve with me and I'm going to express my anger in rather blunt terms. Feel free to delete the whole damn thing if I'm overly offensive.

The sellers say "The ordeal has also been emotionally draining. The Reagans have had to explain to their devastated 5-year-old son, Sean, that they would not be moving to the Merrimac townhouse, where he was looking forward to finally having a room of his own."

Give me a fucking break. Her five year old is DEVASTATED because he doesn't get his own room.

She doesn't know what devastated really means. Try holding your son in his hospital bed after learning he has a life threatening disease and both of you cry because you feel helpless and you are both wondering if he's going to live. If that doesn't help her put "devastation" into perspective, how about witnessing two men, in Brazil, fight over a shipping crate because it will provide shelter for their family. Devastation is the "loser" being stabbed to death. The guy died trying to put SOME kind of roof over his kids' heads.

Sometimes I read these stories and my anger boils to the point I want to slap the shit out of whining, pathetic, ungrateful, greedy assholes. "I'm entitled" is the standard our society has set and it makes me sick to my stomach. If we don't realize disappointed does not mean devastated we are doomed.

Doug H,

I feel the same way. Over the past year, one of my cousins went through treatment for Hogkin's disease and a close friend had multiple operations for a very dangerous brain tumor. These are smart talented hardworking people in their 20s who were dealt horrible cards of life and still had the strength to get treatment and survive.

Devastation because an FB couldn't unload their overpriced sh!tbox for twice what they paid for it? Give me a break!

ajh Says:

> I’ve got to say it’s somewhat amusing watching
> passionate defenders of Proposition 13
> hyperventilating about rent control.

I am not going to complain about prop. 13 since it saves me a lot of money (especially as it was amended by prop. 58 that will allow me to save hundreds of thousands in taxes every year after my parents die) but it is still unfair and wrong (my Parents pay a about $3K a year in property taxes while the young couple next door pay over $50K a year in property taxes). I think that all Americans should pay the same tax rate and be treated equal in all things (including having the same state college admission requirements).

I don’t “complain” (hyperventilate) about rent control since I am not stupid enough to buy any property that is covered by rent control. I just point out the many problems and abuses when a bunch of “activists” and liberal do gooders try and control the free market (the most common abuse of rent control is when an aging hippie with no real job pays the “owner” $500 a month and rents a couple rooms in his flat for $1,000 a month each…

Devastation because an FB couldn’t unload their overpriced sh!tbox for twice what they paid for it? Give me a break!

I do not care if some kids are "devastated". Many children are starving and dying in Africa and there is nothing we can do.

My X-House is still being rented out for 4k per month(the costs are well over 8k/month) to a rapper and his “friends”. I’ve had neighbors call and complain to me that 10 people seem to be living there!

Now you cannot buy it back. :)

Imagine what they are doing to the energy of the house.

I am not going to complain about prop. 13 since it saves me a lot of money

I understand. I will do the same if I were you.

Prop 13 is a form of rent control and is destroying the free market.

LILLL,

Those rappers know how to live don't they!

(Actually they're clients of Joe Schmoe's) sent there to make your former neighbors life a living HELL! People this is what what I'm talking about! Maybe I can loan him my sub-woofer that is SO LOUD baby birds down the block are being born w/birth defects!

This "the dream" I'll soon be living in Las Vegas where the parties don't stop til "eight in the morning"! (Not too sure how Mrs. DinOR feels about having "hootchie girls" over) but I'm pretty sure just about everything else would be cool?

The people selling their condo - should drop the price, rent for a while and pick up their next property when that has dropped in price - but people can't see that.......

Robert,

Fixing prop 13 at a specific rate as a property right is pretty meaningless unless we go back to the gold standard and the government no longer has the license to print money willynilly.

The problem for me with Prop 13 is the degree of the inequity.

I usually avoid that argument because trying to resolve inequity will bring funny* consequences.

Oakland allows for around 3% per year raises in rent prices if I recall correctly, which is roughly in-line with inflation. I think that is fair and doesn’t create gross inequities.

You contradicted yourself. With rent control, you create "inequality" among renters. :)

The worst program is that new rental supply would be disincentivized. This would drive up future rental prices, making housing unaffordable.

* Nothing funny

LiLLL,

That's a hoot. I'm glad you're not in your former neighbors' shoes.

Property tax should be assessed at the rental equivalent rate. This is consistent with the consumption-based paradigm.

What about taxing by sq footage?

"sat vacant all summer, in spite of being a "vacation property"

austingal, two words:

Hootchie girls.

That's all specuvestors need to get these "vacation properties" filled!

$1,300 a month and no "chicks" frolicking in the pool? No wonder the damn thing sat empty all summer!

What about taxing by sq footage?

So a uber-luxury 2000 sqft 2/2.5 condo in the city with marble baths and wolf range should be charged the same rate as a rundown 2000 sqft 4/1 crap in the Central Valley?

Peter P,

I'll agree with that! Tying property tax to the market prices is just asking for trouble these days. (I'm biased here, I have a parent who would be significantly affected by this.)

DinOR,

I think you just found a new occupation for unemployed realtors.

At least the hot ones under 35. I wonder what the overweight, over-perfumed, over 40 realtors plan to do next...

I’ll agree with that! Tying property tax to the market prices is just asking for trouble these days. (I’m biased here, I have a parent who would be significantly affected by this.)

Yes. Rental prices are more suitable because they are not affected by bubbles.

Okay sq footage tied to IRS tax returns - yes, there's holes in that one too I'm sure

HitB:

It's an October Surprise; Rove's getting desperate, and selling nukes to the DPRK would have been too risky.

/puts tinfoil hat back on shelf.

Okay sq footage tied to IRS tax returns - yes, there’s holes in that one too I’m sure

Huh?

How about the total weight of granite, marble, stones, and stainless steel on the property? :)

I suppose we could centralize the tax collection system and then make distributions from state and federal coffers, but that's probably not the most efficient way of going about things. That would be a double whammy for current CA homeowners - they no longer get prop 13 rates and their "good school premium" goes down if all the school districts get equal funding.

astrid,

I just thought LILLL and austingal's observations were so damn funny! Up here in "Drizzleville" much of Bend's "vacation property" rental pool sits empty pretty much year round! The local paper and C/L are just littered w/beach and central OR properties that rent so infrequently they can hardly be of any meaningful impact for the owners.

Every other person my wife works w/(just called to check in, hootchie girls not cool) has a "rental" and they're practically begging you to consider theirs! Pets? O.K! Parties? O.K! Hootchie girls? (As long as your wife's cool w/it, we're cool w/it!)

Anyone here comfortable with changing the Sales tax such that you are expected to pay 8.25% of what the highest price anyone has or will have paid for equivalent items?

I am quite comfortable with this "mark-to-market" scheme. It reminds me of 1256 contracts. ;)

LILLL,

Well I'm bringing my sub-woofer ANYWAY! My buddy runs a "pit-bull farm" out in Moreno Valley and he said he'll bring by a "playmate" so he won't be lonely. The LL did say that pit bulls in the jacuzzi was cool right?

Doug H,
Thanks for the rant. Well put - we as stupid Americans really lose perspective sometimes. Both examples will be people who chase the market down as prices continue to crap out.

DinOR,

I know! Those unattractive overweight realtors can be maid service for these empty vacation properties and McFlippin properties.

The only problem is reference - let's say I was a vacation home owner choosing between a fresh from the border Latina and a former realtor, who would I trust more? Who do I expect to have a good work ethic and have the beds made just so? Who won't steal the $100 I left on the kitchen table?

In the aviation industry we used to refer to helicopters as “crash debris in search of its future accident site.”

LOL Are they really that dangerous? Are turbine copters safer? How about those with counter-rotating blades?

LiLLL,

Thanks for the pick-me-up story. What's funny is how the neighbors are mad at YOU for selling - misdirected anger. They should be pissed at the guy who bought it from you and turned around and rented it. Isn't he the guy you mentioned before as needing to move back to the midwest?