patrick.net

SFWoman Says:
Might it not be OK if the bulls had their posts responded to in a ration way using data, that we point out that our data is better (and point out why), that we point out where the bulls are wrong and educate?

Under the current circumstances, this is the best approach. However, the exchange is rarely conducted in an honest and constructive manner. And the resulting arguments end up increasing the (near-topic) noise level.

Off-topic noise is generally easily filtered out and less harmful. Spurious exchanges that are on-topic are more damaging to a discussion.

SP

off-topic for this thread, but on topic for a RE blog:
Here is a price-history for a property at 1605 EASTBROOK AV, Los Altos. Now just WTF kind of stunt is this guy up to??
Price Increased: 10/12/06 -- $1,185,000 to $1,185,888
Price Reduced: 10/12/06 -- $1,185,888 to $1,185,000
Price Increased: 10/19/06 -- $1,185,000 to $1,185,001
Price Reduced: 10/21/06 -- $1,185,001 to $1,185,000

SP

SFWoman Says:

> I think 888 is a good luck number for Chinese people.
> I have a couple of Hong Kong friends with that in their
> email addresses and I have seen it on custom
> license plates.

I’ve been told by (Chinese American) friends that 8’s in general are lucky (not just 888). I have friends of Chinese decent with business numbers with lots of 8’s since they say Chinese like to call a number with 8’s and I’ve had Chinese leasing broker friends say that is easier to lease a building to a Chinese guy if there is an 8 in the address (and almost imposible with unlucky numbers in the address)…

SFWoman Says:

> I consider him a dangerous and immoral person.

Then goober Says:

> He’s shot people……..

I saw a bumper sticker in Orange County that said:
“I would rather be hunting with Dick than in a car with Ted”

SF Woman wrote:

> I bought my place in 1994, for considerably LESS
> than the people who bought it five years before me
> paid for it. Yes, that is anecdotal, I know.

There is nothing wrong with anecdotal comments since they often let you see problems with the raw data.

Realtors love to find areas with new big homes going in and will say “prices are going up in this area” (but never mention that price per foot is going down).

I have never seen or heard of a single CA home that sold for more in 1994 than it sold for in 1989 (most of N. Cal was a little lower and most of S. Cal was still a lot lower)…

Late to the party as usual.....

Re: patrick's being OT all the time - I like it!
Although, if it upsets too many people, maybe reformatting a la Piggingtons, where there is a seperate section for 'off topic' would mollify.
Personally, I like the way the conversation veers all over the place: it reminds me of being at a party - where you're having a conversation while simultaneously eavesdropping on the conversation next door to you - intitially confusing, but the intersection of the two makes some unique combinations.

Re: Trolls. Personally, I have no problem with people wanting to pose dissenting opinions - after all this is a country of Free Speech (supposedly) - and (dare I say it) Patricks can be a wee bit of a closed society, especially if you haven't personally met other members at a gettogether, or live in the BA...

Intelligent disagreement and argument is one thing, but anything insulting of a personal/sexual/political and/or religious nature should be verboten.
You only have to skim the comments section on HousingPanic to see what can happen if trolls are left to thier own devices.
Inane repititions of the same thing (ie Marina with the "X place YOY 20% PRIME" bleat) are just boring, and I for one simply ignore them and move on. They're a bit like banner ads...no one is making you click on them, so don't.

Anyway, thats my tuppenceworth.
Now - back to applyng a heat-pad to my strained lower back, while looking after my flu-ridden husband and limping cat. Its amazing how stressful that post-vacation 'recouperation' period can be.

speedingpullet,

That's part of the problem w/trolls. Saying we should steer clear of personal/political/sexual and/or religious comments is all fine and well but where so many RE perma bulls are concerned the very presence of this blog is an affront to their "religion". Namely The Unified Church of Perpetual Appreciation.

That's what happened at SFWoman's cocktail party. SHE damn sure didn't bring up the topic. Touting RE at this point is done more for perma bulls sense of self reassurance than anything. (This is so typical, isn't it). The original context was "tisk, tisk such a shame young people can't afford, priced out alas!" (Feigned concern) then it's off to "It Nevergoesdownland"

These components are at the core of virtually all trollish comments. I realize that it looks very generous, even patriotic to allow trolls free reign but aren't we subjected to enough of this abuse in real life situations let alone here?

SFWoman has too much class. I used to have class too. Now when I'm confronted w/comments of that nature I gives it the patented southside eyes rolling into the back of the head (jaw askew) exhaling as if last worldly breath with the "you're killing me here" look. Enough.

You're killing me here!

Allah,

Wrong.

Interesting.........

But wrong.

This is absolutely revolutionary! There was a time when Americans did this of their own accord. Now we need to package it so they stay on track! This is EXACTLY what I've been hinting at here for months.

True, the MB's are using this as just another way to get you to re-fi and get a fee out of the deal BUT properly applied this should be your LAST re-fi! We've gone from a 20 year to a 30 year to a why bother worrying about paying it off mentality! This financial platform should be warmly welcomed.

Mind you this in no way excuses buying an overpriced POS! I'm not running out to buy "some place" ANY PLACE just so I can use this application but when I do, you better believe I'll be using this system! It just makes sense!

@speeding,

RE: your husband's cold/flu, I assume you guys flew to and from your vacation spot? Airplanes bring out the worst of my OCD-like paranoia about germs. I try not to touch anything public at all with my bare hands, but the recirculated air is probably full of all the aerosolized viruses sneezed out by the other passengers. It's almost as bad as my child's daycare.

Hope you all feel better.

Allah,

I have studied these for about a year now and am just now comfortable introducing/discussing them with younger clients that still have a mortgage balance. The mechanics differ from plan to plan but the general idea is to have your mortgage (and in some applications) ALL your debt paid off years in advance saving you hundreds of thousands in unecessary interest payments! Please, before you throw this exciting development "under the bus" study as I have and then let us know what you think!

Caution: Just b/c your effective rate of interest will be in all liklihood BELOW 3% does not in any way excuse running out and over paying for your home! The right tool, at the right time!

Allah,

The particular provider I've been looking at uses an 80/20 platform. Through direct deposit the "20" is paid off in 30 months. 30 months! Then applied to the "80" in successively shorter terms until the mortgage is paid off in about 8-10 years. This simply too important to dismiss out of hand.

Guys,

Don't let Allah "sculpt" the discussion here! These things can and DO work. 1/3 of the Aussies use them successfully! Yeah I know it's radical and when you approach blue collar people expect a response of disbelief!

I would hope for a little more of an an intelligent response here. This is a path toward true home ownership, not glorified renting. Study, learn and then respond. It's taken me a YEAR to get my mind wrapped around this thing. Reading one article doesn't come close to understanding the concept!

Can we start a new thread? Mortgage Accelerator Programs: Bunk or Freedom?

Allah,

Agreed, people used to do this of their own accord. That was when a 20 year FRM was the standard. (Yes I'm old enough to remember parents actually b@tching about being stuck with a 20 yr. mortgage!)

Now with a 30 year, the cards are definitely stacked against you! You don't even reach the 50/50 mark until the 23rd. year! Good luck with that.

Of all my friends I only know ONE guy that paid off his home in under 20 years! Every tax return, bonus, small inheritance etc. ONE guy! These types of plans put everyday people in a place where they can have their homes paid off in 8-10 years. You are doing everyone here a tremendous disservice by immediately associating them all of the negatives associated with existing mortgage products! This thing will gain acceptance and momentum with you or without you.

DinOR

Welcome to my frustration. It is generally not productive to continue to argue when the other party refuses to engage in honest debate. Not everything is "common sense". Some things require a bit of study. I tend to come down on your side, though I have to learn much more about the financial math and risks to make a firm judgment.

DinOR

I'm pretty sure you have authoring rights already. Feel free to write a new thread. Let me know if you need rights granted.

SP

The guy tinkering with his listing price is probably just trying to get his property flagged to potential buyers - the emails sent to me of property for sale lists those that have had a price change etc - even if it is only for a dollar.

Allah,

Would you agree that most Americans have given up on the "notion" of EVER paying off their home? I'd say Surfer X had it right. It's no longer home ownership, it's "paymentship"!

I went to yet another demonstration last night and it works! There is a firm in FL that for the last 8 years has helped employees at Boeing, McDonald's and the State of Colorado. (Those kind of blue collar people). It works.

Randy H,

I'm kind of used to that brand of frustration. It's no big. Many of my long time clients that I've never done ANYTHING but make money for give me a look like, "DinOR, I've indulged you in the past but you really are starting to lose it here!"

I do have authoring rights but forgot how. Anyone care to refresh me or just post it? Please?

SQT?

DinOR,

Those mortgages have been around for about 6 years in the UK, we didn't have one as they had just started up at the time, but I loved the idea - I think the US one is slightly different to the one offered in the UK - or at least the one offered 6 years ago - I think it could be fixed then. The only thing that confused me in the article is about how the said deposit your salary into the account, and withdraw your expenses, but it almost implied your mortgage payment had to come for somewhere else - maybe I was reading it wrong.

One thing people should be sitting up and noticing is not only is this effectively giving you a higher interest on your savings (by saving you the extra interest payment you would have to make) but you don't pay any tax on the "interest savings" as opposed to having to pay tax on any interest earned from a savings account.

One thing I would like to see is a few more companies offering this product - to make the competition a bit better and maybe the terms too.

the = they

Claire,

I had heard that the UK was well ahead of the U.S in this regard. I suppose had you planned to stay there it may well have made sense. To me, this is one of THE most important debates we should be having on this blog!

1. Extent of "the damage".

2. Assessing proper entry point.

3. Method of finance.

Virtually no one in the U.S addresses client's debt. Tons of CPA's to deal w/your tax issues. Page upon page in the phonebook for insurance people to contend w/your liabilities and then there's my crowd, the investment guys. Yet when it comes to dealing with debt well........ you're on your own! Now we have a fledgling start on what could be a good thing. That's why I was imploring Allah to "not throw the baby out with the bath water"!

Allah,

I'm absolutely tickled pink that your sis' was able to get out of debtors prison. For me it's like a scene out of "Cool Hand Luke" for crissakes. Can we talk about the other 99.9% of us though!

Yesterday HARM had a great quote from the CEO at Indy Mac Bank touting that there was 51% of homeowners "equity" left (that is, at TODAY's hyperinflated values) and he wasn't going to stop until he's spoken for that measly percentage as well!

What we could be looking at is the end of "spread banking" as we know it! These are exciting times indeed! Especially considering their embracing 40 and 50 year loans! WTF? Come over to the "dark side" with me, embrace your inner rage!

OK, regarding the chinese lucky number 8, here is the explanation.

China has many elaborated and highly-developed systems of astro-numerology. I am surprised that people like certain numbers only because of how they sound.

I thought your lucky numbers tie to your birthday.

Allah,

Oh, I'm in TOTAL agreement! The guys I met last night (after speaking at length) so much as admitted that volume is absolutely drying up. Many of the MB's that came in at the peak of the RE-FI CRAZE have been bounced out on their ear!

What is more telling is that during "da boom" these types of loans were no where to be found on the American financial landscape! Pffft. Why? We've reached a permanently high new plateau! Why we'll have these FB's lined up around the block until we retire early! Many of these MB's were drinking their own kool-aid!

Well now that the wheels have come off this thing the smart ones are looking at new "products" from beyond our shores in an effort to keep their careers viable. Trust me, I HATE taking up with MB's, really I do. But imagine you have kids, kids that are buying their own homes. Would you rather see them on HARM's definition of affordable (meaning zero down and then serial re-finance from one toxic loan to another) or see them on a path to where mortgage payments become a thing of the past while they are still in 30's?

It's a leap of faith for me too! I've never done this type of thing before but the products have been "tested" in the UK and Aussie markets. At this point I'm ready to try anything.

DinOR, Randy H,

If there's a mortgage product out there that can actually help the BUYER for a change vs. banks and/or Casey Serins, hey, I'm all for it. However, given the timing and vagueness of the particulars, I --like Allah-- am a tad skeptical until convinced otherwise.

Banks & mortgage lenders are generally not in the business of "charity" and if they are eager to push something "new & improved" (especially now as the tide is turning), I must assume it's because it helps THEM until/unless I am convinced otherwise. The Bankrate article Allah posted (and granted we're only talking one superficial relatively math-free blurb) left me with more questions than answers. For instance:

1. If the goal of mortgage accelerator loans is truly to pay off the loan more quickly, why are they structured as 30-year ARMs with a 10-year (!) Interest-Only period? Why not just set the maximum term to 10 or 15 years and make the minimum payment an amortizing one?

2. Based on the interest rate caps (21% for one of the 2 loans fetaured) and relatively low FICO scores required (660/680), can we assume you will be paying a considerable premium (points) over prime/LIBOR, plus significant kick-backs going to the originator?

If you can answer the above and demonstrate that these loans actually have a realistic chance of shortening the loan life and saving the buyer money over your 15/30-yr. FRM, then I'm all ears. Until then....

I remain skeptical.

DinOR, all you need to do to start a thread is go to main page & login (you have to be logged in, which you currently are not). Once you're in, just click on the "Site Admin" link, which will magically appear on the right, under "Meta". Click on "Write" and you're off to the races!

If you forgot your pwd, email me with whatever you want or click on "Lost your password?" to have it re-sent.

New Thread: Mortgage Accelerator Programs: Bunk or Freedom?

(I did this one for you DinOR. Please post the details of the debate in your first comment.)

By the way, I don’t think these 40 or 50 year loans are going to get very popular here…there is more incentive to rent a house instead.

There's this strange assumption that The Sheeple are rational or good at math. Besides, you could just sell the 40/50 year loan as an investment. Or, if all the banks stop offering 30 - then it won't be a choice.

END of Troll Discussion

Admins & Authors please post your conclusions:

Mine are that we should systematically unban all previously marked Trolls, and then reban as necessary.

Automatic bans should result from:

1. Spam and/or gratuitous advertising
2. Automated annoyances (really a form of spam), like some users have been known to script/macro in the past.
3. Overtly inappropriate material. If you need to ask what is "overtly inappropriate", then the answer is "yes, it is".

I concur that SQT's definition of "troll" has somehow been twisted to mean banning all dissenting opinion and this is completely untrue and always has been as long as I've been here.

What's more, I would argue that very few people have actually been banned. When you read some of the opinions here, you get the impression that we conduct regular purges against honest dissenters, which is completely ridiculous. In fact, the only few trolls that actually HAVE been banned easily exceeded Randy's "abuse" conditions above.

Personally, I would prefer that we NOT un-ban obnoxious, repetitive asshats like MP, CuriousCat, Jukubot, etc., but if this is the majority opinion, then I won't oppose it. Just don't be surprised if we don't start getting spammed by these juvenile idiots and have to re-institute the ban soon.

Randy,

I agree, but would say repeated violation of the "inappropriate" materials is necessary for banning. Say, perhaps 3 separate instances of erasure for inappropriateness.

A very savvy hedge fund trader client (multi millionaire high school drop-out type) tells me that having a mortgage of any type is a bad financial investment.

@ SFwoman and Skibum: thanks for the good wishes!
It's an old recurring problem (the back) and comes from being 'swaybacked' - ie I walk around all the time with ma old Ts & A sticking out, leading to compression of the lower spine. I haven't had a yoga class in a month (great help in both posture and stretching) but have one planned for monday, once the muscle spasms have subsided.

And, no, our 'vacation' was in a bone-jarring F350 wheelchair lift-eqipped van, over 3000 miles of decomposing Southwest roads.
Add to that the stress of finding suitable hotel rooms for my sister-in-law who is wheelchair-bound due to advanced MS.
In Flagstaff we had to scout out 7 different hotels, all offering 'hadicapped access' rooms, with differing and often hilarious interperations of 'handicapped access', despite having booked rooms a month earlier.
And, what exactly is meant by 'easy paved trail' in most National Parks... don't do the Lower Emerald Pool trail in Zion, with anyone not capable of propelling themselves in a wheelchair, despite what the Rangers may tell you - its scary for the wheelchair user and much too up/down for the wheelchair pushers.

Throw in the fact that all the in-laws are 'fussy' eaters - ie nothing spicy/garlicy thankyou, so the whole vacation fuelled courtesy of Denny's and the like.

Anyway, the point being that the whole thing pretty much beat the tar out of us, so no surprise that our bodies gave up in surrender as soon as the In-Laws got on the plane back to the UK. They had a great time, we're knackered....;-)

DinOR: I get your point re:trolls, but I'm beginning to think of perma-bulls as some sort of endangered forest creature like the Ivory Billed Woodpecker or (bigger and out of the forest) the American Bison.
Once they were plentiful and now they're not.
As long as they don't become too agressive then they are free to roam here. If they stray beyond the park boundaires, then, like the buffalo in Yellowstone, they're fair game to all comers

'iconoclast' literally means 'one who breaks icons' from the Greek, i think... referring originally to the movement against icon worship or idolatry that sprung up in eastern churches etc. (i'm willing to be corrected on the finer historical detail by anyone who wants to google it.) it now means anyone who is 'contrarian', i suppose, or breaks with commonly held ideas or traditions. 'postmodernism' was described concisely but perhaps too narrrowly by lyotard as 'an incredulity towards grand metanarratives', which is a philosophical form of iconoclasm by defn. i suppose i am a postmodern socia1ist iconoclast, altho in my circle that's more or less mainstream... sociology ruins you for any good work, sigh

DS

I'd call myself a neomodern contrarian amongst iconoclasts. Or is that an iconoclast trapped amongst neoregressive postmodernists?

CR

I agree that wages are strengthening. This is supported by national, state and Bay Area data. The Bay Area real wages have grown the past couple quarters stronger than any time since 2002.

However, that follows a long period of *falling* median real wages. And the key word here is median

You well know the old joke: Bill Gates walks into a bar and by average salary everyone is instantly a millionaire. But the median salary doesn't budge.

The FT had a full page opinion piece yesterday with lots of data, charts and fact references regarding the US' languishing middle class income. The fact his those private equity firms you're talking about enrich only the top 15% (I'm being very generous). Meanwhile the rest are left working harder for less of the pie. Rising productivity. Rising GDP, corporate profits, global share. Falling real wages.

These are the fundamentals that will deflate the housing bubble; here and elsewhere. But it won't be any 50% correction in 6 months like some folks continually insist. It will probably take longer and be less pronounced.

I’d call myself a neomodern contrarian amongst iconoclasts.

i'd say so...

Or is that an iconoclast trapped amongst neoregressive postmodernists?

what about unreconstructed apologists for anarchic libertarianism...

You well know the old joke: Bill Gates walks into a bar and by average salary everyone is instantly a millionaire. But the median salary doesn’t budge.

that's

wow, managed to trash an entry just from the keyboard...

You well know the old joke: Bill Gates walks into a bar and by average salary everyone is instantly a millionaire. But the median salary doesn’t budge.

that’s a good one -- i was only just thinking the boring old line about a statistician drowning in a lake of average depth 4"...