patrick.net

hmm, a postmodernist can be iconoclastic -- almost by definition!

"Please no flame wars in the thread on treatment of trolls. That’s too narcissitically ironic for even me."

ROFL. Nice.

Anyone posting under multiple ID's should be permanently banned.

People with opposing viewpoints should not be considered trolls, even though they offer little evidence. Several posters on this blog also use anecdotes and cheerleading in place of hard evidence, but because they agree with the viewpoint people just applaud them. If this is to be a rational discussion instead of sour-grapes ranting, there has to be hard data.

I find ConfusedRenter useful because he posts occasional datapoints against the grain of the site. He also posts a lot of warm-and-fuzzy fluff, but at least he's not vulgar. The way some hardcore posters here talk, the "inevitable" RE bubble burst is a complete guarantee, a "fact" to be worshipped with religious fervor. I like to see the dissenters. If the slide is such a predictable thing, why only just buy a house once prices are down? You could definitely find a way to make money on the "guaranteed" pop.

I guess that kinda makes me a fence-sitter, since I neither believe in the fantasy of ongoing spectacular returns based on shady loans, nor in the doomsday scenario of a complete RE crash where prices come down 50%.

Am I in the minority, or are there other fence-sitters lurking as well?

Allah,

Feel free to sign up as a threadmaster and write your own post.

CG,

None of which demonstrate why Fudan is the Yale of China. A much better argument can be made for why Fudan is the Stanford of China, actually - see greencrabs.blogspot.com.

I have a second cousin who went to Shanghai No. 1 Medical School -- smart guy, boorish family.

Actually, he's a fairly noted cancer researcher.

astrid Says:

> FAB, I think of iconoclasm as neutral or complement.
> I think of myself as an iconoclast. Does it have a primarily
> negative connotation for you?

I’ve always thought of an iconoclast as one who bashes religion or an idiot that tried to stir up shit by making stupid statements that (almost) everyone knows is wrong such as “the world is flat”…

I can’t recall mentioning religion on this BLOG before (other than an off hand comment referring to “right wing religious nut balls”). Despite my dislike of crazy religious republicans who are convinced that their sons will start listening to Streisand and/or reading Details magazine if we don’t ban male hand holding from TV I actually have a lot of respect and admiration of the major world religions (and to the dismay of my atheist/objectivist friends) I believe in some kind of god…

Since I try and have at least some support to my arguments (even if it is anecdotal at times) I don’t think I fall in to the second camp of iconoclasts that just spout off things like “real estate can never drop in price since they don’t make land any more”…

It looks like the time stamp on the BLOG didn't "fall back" an hour...

FAB,

Gosh, I just thought iconoclasm means you're willing to entertain thoughts outside of the mainstream. I suppose your opinions on gender relations might qualify as assailing against BA conventional wisdom, but in any case, my "iconoclasm" comment was not intended as criticism.

CR wrote:

> I still think Yahoo at 25-26 is a great buy...

I think that Bay Area real estate prices will look a lot like the Yahoo chart below (the Jan. 2000 for Yahoo is the Oct. 2005 for Real Estate) the Yahoo chart even has a few "dead cat bounces" (like real ester will) on the way down...

http://tinyurl.com/y94zhv

Forsaken Says:

> btw since most of you all are bay
> area guys you may like this:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/rfs/227775522.html

The guy is probably not “desperate” since he bought the place for $575K 12/03 (from a guy that bought it for $410K 11/00).

He just needs to admit that there is no “good” part of El Sobrante and dump the place since even with under $500K in debt the place will not have positive cash flow any time soon…

CG

I am not so sure about the part of MS reverse-engineering the competitor’s products in your blog entry “The Instincts of a Monopolist Die Hard.”

That is the blog author's perspective, not mine. That blog is run by a b-school colleague and Wall Street financial analyst, not me. We just syndicate one another's blogs. Mine is Capitalism 2.0.

OQO is nice...

Geez, SFWoman, you seem to know all the big guys. Do have have a friend who knows Dick Cheney?

Late to the discussion. I used to post often but now a lurker.

Banning trolls should be done very rarely - reserved for only those who make extremely offensive OFF-TOPIC comments (regarding sexual preferences, or religion etc) or those who are here just to steal bandwidth and hamper regular discussions (like posting the same listing multiple times).

This is a GREAT blog. Awesome information. But without dissenting views, it will get very narrow-minded, and then it won't be great. So please keep banning as an extreme option

Earlier, I said:
For whatever it is worth, patrick.net _IS_ one of the better known bubble blogs and is likely to be a target for subversion. A clear policy for banning trolls needs to be enforced.

I guess a clarification is in order, since I didn't exactly mean to suggest we go Gestapo on the trolls. The point is that there needs to be a clearer _policy_ on what constitutes unacceptable trolling, and whatever this policy is, it needs to be enforced.

As others have already said, we shouldn't ban people for expressing dissenting views - as long as they are done in an honest, constructive and transparent manner. IMO, asshat-realtwhores who try to pump the market while pretending to be renters are not exactly contributing this kind of dissent.

SP

SFWoman Says:
Might it not be OK if the bulls had their posts responded to in a ration way using data, that we point out that our data is better (and point out why), that we point out where the bulls are wrong and educate?

Under the current circumstances, this is the best approach. However, the exchange is rarely conducted in an honest and constructive manner. And the resulting arguments end up increasing the (near-topic) noise level.

Off-topic noise is generally easily filtered out and less harmful. Spurious exchanges that are on-topic are more damaging to a discussion.

SP

off-topic for this thread, but on topic for a RE blog:
Here is a price-history for a property at 1605 EASTBROOK AV, Los Altos. Now just WTF kind of stunt is this guy up to??
Price Increased: 10/12/06 -- $1,185,000 to $1,185,888
Price Reduced: 10/12/06 -- $1,185,888 to $1,185,000
Price Increased: 10/19/06 -- $1,185,000 to $1,185,001
Price Reduced: 10/21/06 -- $1,185,001 to $1,185,000

SP

SFWoman Says:

> I think 888 is a good luck number for Chinese people.
> I have a couple of Hong Kong friends with that in their
> email addresses and I have seen it on custom
> license plates.

I’ve been told by (Chinese American) friends that 8’s in general are lucky (not just 888). I have friends of Chinese decent with business numbers with lots of 8’s since they say Chinese like to call a number with 8’s and I’ve had Chinese leasing broker friends say that is easier to lease a building to a Chinese guy if there is an 8 in the address (and almost imposible with unlucky numbers in the address)…

SFWoman Says:

> I consider him a dangerous and immoral person.

Then goober Says:

> He’s shot people……..

I saw a bumper sticker in Orange County that said:
“I would rather be hunting with Dick than in a car with Ted”

SF Woman wrote:

> I bought my place in 1994, for considerably LESS
> than the people who bought it five years before me
> paid for it. Yes, that is anecdotal, I know.

There is nothing wrong with anecdotal comments since they often let you see problems with the raw data.

Realtors love to find areas with new big homes going in and will say “prices are going up in this area” (but never mention that price per foot is going down).

I have never seen or heard of a single CA home that sold for more in 1994 than it sold for in 1989 (most of N. Cal was a little lower and most of S. Cal was still a lot lower)…

Late to the party as usual.....

Re: patrick's being OT all the time - I like it!
Although, if it upsets too many people, maybe reformatting a la Piggingtons, where there is a seperate section for 'off topic' would mollify.
Personally, I like the way the conversation veers all over the place: it reminds me of being at a party - where you're having a conversation while simultaneously eavesdropping on the conversation next door to you - intitially confusing, but the intersection of the two makes some unique combinations.

Re: Trolls. Personally, I have no problem with people wanting to pose dissenting opinions - after all this is a country of Free Speech (supposedly) - and (dare I say it) Patricks can be a wee bit of a closed society, especially if you haven't personally met other members at a gettogether, or live in the BA...

Intelligent disagreement and argument is one thing, but anything insulting of a personal/sexual/political and/or religious nature should be verboten.
You only have to skim the comments section on HousingPanic to see what can happen if trolls are left to thier own devices.
Inane repititions of the same thing (ie Marina with the "X place YOY 20% PRIME" bleat) are just boring, and I for one simply ignore them and move on. They're a bit like banner ads...no one is making you click on them, so don't.

Anyway, thats my tuppenceworth.
Now - back to applyng a heat-pad to my strained lower back, while looking after my flu-ridden husband and limping cat. Its amazing how stressful that post-vacation 'recouperation' period can be.

speedingpullet,

That's part of the problem w/trolls. Saying we should steer clear of personal/political/sexual and/or religious comments is all fine and well but where so many RE perma bulls are concerned the very presence of this blog is an affront to their "religion". Namely The Unified Church of Perpetual Appreciation.

That's what happened at SFWoman's cocktail party. SHE damn sure didn't bring up the topic. Touting RE at this point is done more for perma bulls sense of self reassurance than anything. (This is so typical, isn't it). The original context was "tisk, tisk such a shame young people can't afford, priced out alas!" (Feigned concern) then it's off to "It Nevergoesdownland"

These components are at the core of virtually all trollish comments. I realize that it looks very generous, even patriotic to allow trolls free reign but aren't we subjected to enough of this abuse in real life situations let alone here?

SFWoman has too much class. I used to have class too. Now when I'm confronted w/comments of that nature I gives it the patented southside eyes rolling into the back of the head (jaw askew) exhaling as if last worldly breath with the "you're killing me here" look. Enough.

You're killing me here!

Allah,

Wrong.

Interesting.........

But wrong.

This is absolutely revolutionary! There was a time when Americans did this of their own accord. Now we need to package it so they stay on track! This is EXACTLY what I've been hinting at here for months.

True, the MB's are using this as just another way to get you to re-fi and get a fee out of the deal BUT properly applied this should be your LAST re-fi! We've gone from a 20 year to a 30 year to a why bother worrying about paying it off mentality! This financial platform should be warmly welcomed.

Mind you this in no way excuses buying an overpriced POS! I'm not running out to buy "some place" ANY PLACE just so I can use this application but when I do, you better believe I'll be using this system! It just makes sense!

@speeding,

RE: your husband's cold/flu, I assume you guys flew to and from your vacation spot? Airplanes bring out the worst of my OCD-like paranoia about germs. I try not to touch anything public at all with my bare hands, but the recirculated air is probably full of all the aerosolized viruses sneezed out by the other passengers. It's almost as bad as my child's daycare.

Hope you all feel better.

Allah,

I have studied these for about a year now and am just now comfortable introducing/discussing them with younger clients that still have a mortgage balance. The mechanics differ from plan to plan but the general idea is to have your mortgage (and in some applications) ALL your debt paid off years in advance saving you hundreds of thousands in unecessary interest payments! Please, before you throw this exciting development "under the bus" study as I have and then let us know what you think!

Caution: Just b/c your effective rate of interest will be in all liklihood BELOW 3% does not in any way excuse running out and over paying for your home! The right tool, at the right time!

Allah,

The particular provider I've been looking at uses an 80/20 platform. Through direct deposit the "20" is paid off in 30 months. 30 months! Then applied to the "80" in successively shorter terms until the mortgage is paid off in about 8-10 years. This simply too important to dismiss out of hand.

Guys,

Don't let Allah "sculpt" the discussion here! These things can and DO work. 1/3 of the Aussies use them successfully! Yeah I know it's radical and when you approach blue collar people expect a response of disbelief!

I would hope for a little more of an an intelligent response here. This is a path toward true home ownership, not glorified renting. Study, learn and then respond. It's taken me a YEAR to get my mind wrapped around this thing. Reading one article doesn't come close to understanding the concept!

Can we start a new thread? Mortgage Accelerator Programs: Bunk or Freedom?

Allah,

Agreed, people used to do this of their own accord. That was when a 20 year FRM was the standard. (Yes I'm old enough to remember parents actually b@tching about being stuck with a 20 yr. mortgage!)

Now with a 30 year, the cards are definitely stacked against you! You don't even reach the 50/50 mark until the 23rd. year! Good luck with that.

Of all my friends I only know ONE guy that paid off his home in under 20 years! Every tax return, bonus, small inheritance etc. ONE guy! These types of plans put everyday people in a place where they can have their homes paid off in 8-10 years. You are doing everyone here a tremendous disservice by immediately associating them all of the negatives associated with existing mortgage products! This thing will gain acceptance and momentum with you or without you.

DinOR

Welcome to my frustration. It is generally not productive to continue to argue when the other party refuses to engage in honest debate. Not everything is "common sense". Some things require a bit of study. I tend to come down on your side, though I have to learn much more about the financial math and risks to make a firm judgment.

DinOR

I'm pretty sure you have authoring rights already. Feel free to write a new thread. Let me know if you need rights granted.

SP

The guy tinkering with his listing price is probably just trying to get his property flagged to potential buyers - the emails sent to me of property for sale lists those that have had a price change etc - even if it is only for a dollar.

Allah,

Would you agree that most Americans have given up on the "notion" of EVER paying off their home? I'd say Surfer X had it right. It's no longer home ownership, it's "paymentship"!

I went to yet another demonstration last night and it works! There is a firm in FL that for the last 8 years has helped employees at Boeing, McDonald's and the State of Colorado. (Those kind of blue collar people). It works.

Randy H,

I'm kind of used to that brand of frustration. It's no big. Many of my long time clients that I've never done ANYTHING but make money for give me a look like, "DinOR, I've indulged you in the past but you really are starting to lose it here!"

I do have authoring rights but forgot how. Anyone care to refresh me or just post it? Please?

SQT?

DinOR,

Those mortgages have been around for about 6 years in the UK, we didn't have one as they had just started up at the time, but I loved the idea - I think the US one is slightly different to the one offered in the UK - or at least the one offered 6 years ago - I think it could be fixed then. The only thing that confused me in the article is about how the said deposit your salary into the account, and withdraw your expenses, but it almost implied your mortgage payment had to come for somewhere else - maybe I was reading it wrong.

One thing people should be sitting up and noticing is not only is this effectively giving you a higher interest on your savings (by saving you the extra interest payment you would have to make) but you don't pay any tax on the "interest savings" as opposed to having to pay tax on any interest earned from a savings account.

One thing I would like to see is a few more companies offering this product - to make the competition a bit better and maybe the terms too.

the = they

Claire,

I had heard that the UK was well ahead of the U.S in this regard. I suppose had you planned to stay there it may well have made sense. To me, this is one of THE most important debates we should be having on this blog!

1. Extent of "the damage".

2. Assessing proper entry point.

3. Method of finance.

Virtually no one in the U.S addresses client's debt. Tons of CPA's to deal w/your tax issues. Page upon page in the phonebook for insurance people to contend w/your liabilities and then there's my crowd, the investment guys. Yet when it comes to dealing with debt well........ you're on your own! Now we have a fledgling start on what could be a good thing. That's why I was imploring Allah to "not throw the baby out with the bath water"!

Allah,

I'm absolutely tickled pink that your sis' was able to get out of debtors prison. For me it's like a scene out of "Cool Hand Luke" for crissakes. Can we talk about the other 99.9% of us though!

Yesterday HARM had a great quote from the CEO at Indy Mac Bank touting that there was 51% of homeowners "equity" left (that is, at TODAY's hyperinflated values) and he wasn't going to stop until he's spoken for that measly percentage as well!

What we could be looking at is the end of "spread banking" as we know it! These are exciting times indeed! Especially considering their embracing 40 and 50 year loans! WTF? Come over to the "dark side" with me, embrace your inner rage!

OK, regarding the chinese lucky number 8, here is the explanation.

China has many elaborated and highly-developed systems of astro-numerology. I am surprised that people like certain numbers only because of how they sound.

I thought your lucky numbers tie to your birthday.

Allah,

Oh, I'm in TOTAL agreement! The guys I met last night (after speaking at length) so much as admitted that volume is absolutely drying up. Many of the MB's that came in at the peak of the RE-FI CRAZE have been bounced out on their ear!

What is more telling is that during "da boom" these types of loans were no where to be found on the American financial landscape! Pffft. Why? We've reached a permanently high new plateau! Why we'll have these FB's lined up around the block until we retire early! Many of these MB's were drinking their own kool-aid!

Well now that the wheels have come off this thing the smart ones are looking at new "products" from beyond our shores in an effort to keep their careers viable. Trust me, I HATE taking up with MB's, really I do. But imagine you have kids, kids that are buying their own homes. Would you rather see them on HARM's definition of affordable (meaning zero down and then serial re-finance from one toxic loan to another) or see them on a path to where mortgage payments become a thing of the past while they are still in 30's?

It's a leap of faith for me too! I've never done this type of thing before but the products have been "tested" in the UK and Aussie markets. At this point I'm ready to try anything.